THE SHARK REPORT

MORNING LINKS

2010-11-22T07:30:00.004-05:00

Futures were ramping last night on the heels of the news of the Irish accepting a bailout to the tune of 100B Euros- and the EURO was smoking and the dollar dipping. This morning not so much as the futures have flipped to flat and the dollar back to near flat.

Gold/Silver/Crude all up a hair after being up significantly over night.

RSI 2 levels over bought and up near 80- on most major indexes with the RUT higher and the DJIA lower.

Lots of folks take the short week off but the Quant has some interesting stats on this week and the Monday after.

SAC Capital in the cross hairs - fine line between great info and inside info - to be determined.

A strong holiday season - hmmm.

Debunking the ETF issues- probably.

Putbacks now could get some attention.

Finally- that great options trader Lenny back in the news as some folks stop at nothing when it comes to repossessing your stuff.

MIDDAY CRUSH

2010-11-16T12:21:00.003-05:00

Lots of important stuff happening today - beatles, the Prince, Rangel and probably even more stuff but I am going to focus on the crushing of the equity markets.

As I type - SPX -21, DJIA -205 and the NAZ -45.

Internals as ugly as they get:

SPX 17/482;

NDX 4/96;

NYSE 2655 net losers;

RUT 175/1665;

RSI 2 levels - most major indexes @/near 2;

10 year note unchanged at 2.911%;

VIX +13% @ 22.8 and about 17% above the SMA 10;

SPX about 10 points above the SMA 50 @1165.

Gold/commodities crushed as the dollar rips higher +.9% on the DXY @79.39- the highest level since the end of September.

I bought some stuff higher and hanging on for now as I suspect a bounce coming shortly - although a close today at /near the lows would not surprise- so may add at end of day.

MORNING CHECK

2010-11-15T10:34:00.003-05:00

Equities are trading a bit higher led by gaming, banks, brokers, trannies and biotech- lagging sectors include internets, nat gas, homies, emerging market bonds and semis.

Gold up $3 and silver higher by .6% at $26.21;

Oil up 50 cents at 85.35;

Equity internals:

NYSE 730 net winners;

NDX 64/36;

SPX 350/140;

RUT 1150/625;

WINNERS- F MS DELL LOW CL RF WFC NSC HPQ JOYG WYNN VRTX LINTA CTAS;

LOSERS AMZN EXPE MRVL QCOM PCLN XLN ERTS BIDU UNH DIS EMC WAG;

Still looks to be buy the dip time but looking for a rally that lasts more than a morning-

EARLY QE LOOK

2010-11-15T08:17:00.003-05:00

Equities took a drubbing last week on the heels of a scare out of China that they were nipping growth in the bud- probably not going to happen.

This morning - futures are moving up as the dollar is down - and the markets are a bit over sold- in the short term:

RSI 2 readings as follows:

SPX 9

DJIA 5

NAZ 9

NDX 7

GOLD 11

VIX- not telling much as it is about 6% above the SMA 10.

Bought some USO on Friday and looking to add more longs today as I suspect equities will rally into the end of the year- lots of folks under performing whose main hope is to buy dips - and it just dipped.

Just read the WSJ post by Alan Blinder on QE2- liked it and agree with it - he makes lots of good sense.

HAPPY STARTS

2010-11-01T10:20:00.003-04:00

Equities have ramped higher this morning on the heels of good econ news out of China and an up beat ISM number reported at 10.00 AM EST.

SPX +10.6, NAZ +20 and the DJIA +105.

Strongest sectors- gaming, emerging markets, oil service, reits and real estate while metals, bonds, brokers, retail and biotech/drugs lag.

Market internals:

NYSE - 1760 net green;

NDX - 73/25;

SPX 415/80;

RUT 1370/415

VIX down 1% at 21;

Gold down $7 at 1353;

Crude up almost $2 at $83.25.

Equity winners- APOL WYNN PCAR INTC NWSA BHI RTN OXY GILD EMC NSC MSFT;

Equity losers- AVP AMZN TXN WFC ABT USB VRSN FSLR ADSK SPLS FLIR YHOO;

RSI 2 - levels above 90 on most major indexes;

Still expecting a tag of the SPXM 1200 level - and maybe a pullback from there later in the week as Bernancke and others hit the front page- For today buying the pullbacks probably the best strategy.

BACK TO IT

2010-10-12T10:39:00.002-04:00

Equities opened up lower but have made a nice comeback led by the NAZ/NDX - SPX -4.8, NAZ -5 and DJIA -55- the DJIA has been leading of late but not today.

Markets in a nice uptrend as witnessed by the simple chart above - and above all significant moving averages.

Strongest sectors- gaming, ags, real estate, bonds, semis, reits and banks while metals, energy, emerging markets, trannies and defense lags.

Internals:

NYSE- 1100 net losers;

NDX- 35/64;

SPX 140/350;

RUT- 560/1200;

TRIN- .8;

VIX 19.5 and up about 3%;

Ten year bond- up a hair with rates down at 2.378%;

Gold down $6 at 1349 while silver is down 13 cents at 23.18;

Winners- SBUX CTXS QGEN WYNN CHKP LRCX LLTC AVP AXP GE AA BAC QCOM MS;

Losers- VZ SLB NSC OXHY FDX FAST EXPE ERTS URBN MICC JOYG BHP CNQ DIS WMT;

Markets have bounced since the typing began with the NAZ going green and the SPX down less than 2 points- expecting the dippers to buy and a nice rally into the end of year with dips being quickly bought -

AFTERNOON SLOP

2010-09-27T12:45:00.003-04:00

Sloppy day for the equity markets as the SPX is off about 4, NAZ -8.5 and the DJIA -22 at about 12.45 eastern time.

Strongest sectors- gaming, bonds, trannies and emerging market bonds- laggards- nat gas, reits, real estate, defense, banks and biotech.

NYSE internals- 1235/1720;

SPX 150/350;

NDX 22/78;

RUT 515/1310;

VIX- higher by 4% at about 22.6 and about 2% above the SMA 10;

Gold- unchanged near 1299;

10 year bond - 2.52% with the TLT up about 1.6%;

A pretty ho hum day as the market consolidates from the big ramp on Friday- looking for a move higher later in the week - seems like folks will want to to goose in from of month/quarter end-

THE TEPPER

2010-09-24T11:26:00.003-04:00

Animal spirits out this morning as David Tepper - pumps up the market with his theory - economy strengthens - equities go up - economy weakens and FED does QE - equities go up- so his declaration of no risk to owning equities and another - tidbit from him - if the SPX goes to 1000- I will be 100% in equities - OK - he has a great record so I understand the ramp.

At 11.30 Eastern time- SPX +21 @1146 - probably finds lots of sellers at if/when 1150- NAZ +44 @2371 and the DJIA +180 @10840.

Strongest sectors- gaming, semis, oil service, homies, internets and brokers while nat gas, bonds, metals, junk and ags lag.

NYSE- 2070 net winners;

NDX 97/3;

SPX 490/10

RUT 1725/125;

VIX- down 8.5% at 21.8 and a bit below the SMA 10;

Gold - up $3 at 1297;

Silver +1.2% at 21.4;

10 year Bond - rates flying higher at a whole 2.617%

RSI 2 levels as follows:

SPX 77;

NAZ 85;

DJIA 81;

RUT 70;

Pretty interesting that with this ramp this morning we still aren't near way over bought levels on major indexes - also expecting a ramp later in the day with a close at/near the highs with SPX 1150 well within sights.

MARKET TIDBITS

2010-09-14T12:37:00.002-04:00

Equities are trading higher along with bonds gold and the EURO- interesting day as the risk trade looks to be on -

The SPX is trading about 5 points below the magic 1130 level which everyone is looking at as the top of the range in this range bound market. EWA/EWC out performing and up about 1% for the day.

Strong sectors- metals, retail, semis, drugs and tech while nat gas, banks, brokers, homies and gaming lags.

VIX- flat near the 21 level;

Gold has broken out to $1,275 and is at all time highs;

Ten year rate moving down and yielding a big 2.68%- TLT +.6%;

RSI 2 levels at/near 97 on most major indexes - so with the over bought levels and the top of the range in the here and now -and with financials and energy lagging - probably time to take stuff off or sell some calls / buy some puts -

THE CLOSE

2010-09-13T16:43:00.002-04:00

Equities finished the day near the highs with the SPX +12 at 1122 and the NAZ +43 at 2286.

Some good news late in the day as MSFT rose on the heels of news of a debt issuance and a stock buyback or a dividend increase- the stocks was +5.74% on the day and was strong out of the gate.

NDX with 92/8 on the internals;

SPX 426/73;

RUT 1648/217;

NYSE 1414 net winners;

VIX closed at 21.21 and about 10% below the SMA 10;

RSI 2 levels on most major indexes way overbought at 95+;

Interesting news on the bond front as rates on the 10 year dipped to 2.741% and the TLT was higher by .66% at 103.

Bottom line equities way overbought but have now moved above all the significant moving averages - so looking for a little pull back but also looking for it to be a buying opportunity. Of course the trading range looks to still be 1040/1130- and we are now testing the upper end of that range- double dip anyone?

MORNING STATS

2010-09-10T10:06:00.004-04:00

Equity markets are a tad higher this morning with the SPX +3 and the NAZ +2.5.

Strongest sectors- energy, gaming, retail, biotech, defense and small caps while semis, bonds, tech and brokers lag.

NYSE- 970 net winners;

NAZ- 500 net winners;

SPX 350/140;

NDX 63/36;

RUT 1240/420;

TRIN .84;

10 year bond - 2.797%;

Gold - up $2 at 1247 while silver is almost $20;

The SPX is trading above the SMA 50 and 100 and approaching the SMA 200 at about 1115- not the over bought RSI readings on most major equity indexes - at /near 85;

Looking for a choppy day and may add to some energy holdings - COP CVX XLE -

THE SLOP

2010-08-23T12:02:00.003-04:00

At noon equities are near the flat line with the exception of the NAZ/NDX which are down about .5% -

Strongest sectors- oil service, drugs, consumers, energy, banks and real estate while gaming, semis, tech, metals, homies and small caps lag.

NYSE- 250 net losers;

NAZ- 750 net losers;

SPX- 213/280;
NDX - 23/75;

TRIN-.97;

VIX - 25.4 flat on the day and trading near the SMA 10;

GOLD- down $3 at 1225;

10 year Note- rate up a hair at 2.614%;

The Baltic Dry index may be hinting at something;

Barry on housing;

Equities were strong at the open with the DJIA up by about 80 points but quickly sold off as tech led lower- No clue for any particular reason but it just did-

Looking for a choppy market for the balance of the day with a little bias to the upside- and a little interesting how European markets look to be closing to the upside;

PRE MARKET STUFF

2010-08-19T08:04:00.003-04:00

Initial claims come in at 500k which is rapidly taking down the futures which were moving up nicely and near the fair value area-

The SPX has clearly run into some issues getting above the BIG 1100 number which is also the area of the EMA 20- however, after knocking on the door twice- it would not surprise me to see the third time be a charm.

RSI 2 levels are near 80 on most major indexes while the VIX is near the SMA 10 at 24.6.

Gold trading flat at $1,232 while crude is up a bit at $76.

The yield on the ten year note refuses to move up and is at about 2.641-

Oh and big M+A premium as INTC gets MFE for a 65% premium over yesterday's close- and SYMC also ripping higher on the news.

BESPOKE - on the souring strategists;

Buffet and Soros agreeing;

Myth of the Bond Bubble;

Dr. Sarah defends the racist;

THE CLOSE

2010-08-11T16:28:00.004-04:00

Quite the day for equities as the markets opened lower and drifted down all day with hardly a bounce anywhere a long the way.

SPX -31.6, NAZ -68.6 and the DJIA -265.

Strongest of the sectors bonds, retail, metals, consumers and reits while gaming, banks, trannies, semis and small caps lagged.

NYSE- 400/2580;

NAZ - 303/2269;

SPX 20/450;

NDX 6/90;

RUT 75/1675;

RSI 2 levels on Major indexes at/near 5- pretty much as low as they go unless you want to talk 2008/2009;

VIX - up 13% at 25.4 and about 11% above the SMA 10;

Gold down 5 at $1,200.

Oil - down 2.7 at 77.5;

TEN year Note- 2.685 % - and way over bought down here;

The SPX closed a hair above the SMA 50 - and unless something comes to the rescue tomorrow it could get ugly early- although thinking here we could dip down in the morning and the rally - waiting for tomorrow to decide on that strategy-

I did dip in and buy some MMP today - and will look to add nice growth nice dividend -

MINDING THE GAP

2010-08-11T08:15:00.002-04:00

Equity futures way down as folks re think the FED announcement from yesterday- ES -17.5, NQ-29 and YM -141.

In addition, major indexes will likely fall under their longer term moving averages as the SPX probably opens near 1107- down about 14 from yesterday's close.The SMA 50 still lends some support in the 1088 area.

Overseas markets down about as much s our futures with CAC 40 - 1.75%, FTSE -1.50%, and DAX -1.71%.

RSI 2 levels on the ES/NQ futures hovering near the 8 level.

Gold trading near 1208 and the Ten year rate lower again at 2.72%.

I expect the dip to get bought fairly quickly - but a gap fill - probably not.

AFTERNOON LOOK

2010-08-09T12:59:00.003-04:00

Boring day in the equity markets today sans the action in HPQ and V - the SPX +3.7, NAZ +10.65 and the DJIA +31.

Strongest sectors- homies, retail, trannies, reits and small caps while nat gas, metals, oil service and biotech lags.

NYSE- 1130 net winners;

NAZ- 560 net winners;

SPX- 366/130;

NDX 66/30;

RUT- 1280/570;

VIX higher by 2.5% at 22.25;

TRIN- 1.17;

Up volume almost double the down on the NYSE;

Gold- down $5 near the $1200 number;

Ten year rate down a hair at 2.82%;

Market internals stronger than the indexes so looking for a pop higher later in the day- anticipating buying some SPY/QQQQ - although probably gonna stay with the Q's;

Nice article in Barrons pumping up V today and sold my HPQ that i bought in the AH market on Friday.

THE COME BACK

2010-08-06T16:30:00.004-04:00

Apparently jobs number taking a back seat to a risk reward trade- 10 year at 2.824% and lots of high quality blue chip companies with higher dividend rates and some growth to boot- So what is in this fish's portfolio:

ABT 3.5%;

BMY 4.85%;

CLX 3.38%;

COP 3.9%;

HNZ 3.97%;

JNJ 3.6%;

K 3%;

KFT 3.8%;

LINE 8%;

MO 6.2%;

PEP 2.9%;

RAI 6.2%;

UPS 2.8%

VZ 6.4%;

Just thinking that the trade for the next 3/5 years is going to be own these type of stocks-and of course to day trade the indexes.

QUICK FLIP

2010-08-06T11:39:00.003-04:00

Equity futures turned lower on the poor jobs numbers and rallied back after the open only to tank again and hit new lows- as I type SPX -14, NAZ -28 and the DJIA -121.

Strongest sectors- metals, bonds, gaming, drugs and homies while banks, oil service, small caps and trannies lag.

NYSE-1375 net losers;

NAZ- 1300 net losers;

SPX - 40/460;

NDX- 13/87;

TRIN - 1.71;

VIX- 23.36 and higher by 5.7% -hardly a panic;

Gold $1209 and higher by about $12;

Crude- $81.2 and down about 80 cents;

WINNERS- KFT MA FCX WCRX VOD FWLT QGEN PCLN MXIM NVDA ABT;

LOSERS- CMCSA USB RF BHI EMC NSC ADSK ATVI NIHD ERTS VMED NTAP SNDK;

RSI 2 readings as follows:

SPX 17

NDX 21

RUT 14

Pretty ugly day but I think the numbers say to buy for a flip into next week - Earnings numbers continue to be good - so as long as there are no jobs numbers equities probably go higher.

I picked up some MGM and am looking to add to the position.

MOVING UP AGAIN

2010-08-02T07:35:00.003-04:00

Equity futures are way higher this morning with ES +13.5, NQ +21 and YM +110.

The SMA 200 looks to get tagged at the open as it sits at about 1115 - which is near where we should open.

And overseas in Europe the FTSE/CAC and DAX are each up about 2% so look for the equity markets to move up and continue the move to catch up with those 2% numbers.

Gold is down a bit at $1,180 and crude up a bit at/near $80.

The EURO is back to 1.30 while the dollar moves lower at 81.5.

And Dougie Kass shorting the SPY's here - I think a bit too early for that.

Some good links this morning:

David Stockman (you remember him) on how the GOP impacted the economy and the NYTIMES article;

Fernando on the truth about American unemployment;

Greenspan on MTP talking the tax cuts;

DB and 6 reasons to feel bullish about the economy;

BESPOKE and JULY asset class performance;

And Sarah back looking for help;

LOWER HIGHS CONTINUING

2010-07-20T16:14:00.002-04:00

Equities closed the day higher after opening way down and sinking near the open- SPX +12, NAZ +24 and the DJIA +75.

Strongest sectors included gaming, homies, oil service, emerging markets and metals while semis, drugs, banks and brokers lagged.

NYSE- 1860 net winners;

NAZ- 530 net winners;

NDX- 67/31;

SPX 430/67;

RUT- 1375/512;

Gold- higher by $10 at 1192;

Crude- up 90 cents at $77;

Feels like here we go again as the SPX makes another run at the SMA 50 which is at about 1088- and I suspect more selling as that has been the money trade- look at the chart - its lower highs and lower lows and that area looks like as good a place as there is to sell-

VIX closed down about 8% but hardly in over sold area while RSI 2 levels on major indexes also up but hardly over done near the 70 level-

And the 10 year note refuses to move higher as it closed at 2.93%- fear of losing money

MORNING BIGHT

2010-07-19T11:09:00.003-04:00

Equities started the day higher but qucikly sold off as AAPL turned ugly in a hurry- As I type NAZ +2, SPX +.5 and the DJIA +11.

Strongest sectors include energy service, semis, emerging markets, tech and drugs while gaming, metals, banks and homies lag.

NYSE- 460 net losers;

NAZ- 550 net losers;

SPX - slightly better than flat internals;

NDX- 76/24;

Gold down about $13 at $1180;

10 Year note- 2.95%;

Big winners- APOL NIHD GILD NVDA QCOM HAL SLB BHI CMCSA AMGN;

Big losers- AAPL BAC COF JPM AXP SHLD BIDU SNDK WYNN HSIC WCRX PDCO;

Watching AAPL and GS closely and if they turn I suspect the market rallies nicely- Internals good on SPX and NDX - and looking to add to QQQQ near these levels - for a quick flip as the environment remains bearish - just check the sell areas near the 200 and 50 SMA's in recent days- and of course the lower highs and lower lows on the charts -

THE SLOP

2010-07-02T10:46:00.003-04:00

Equities are trading near the flat line with oil service, biotech, metals, junk and emerging markets leading while gaming, reits, homies and trannies lagging.

NYSE internals flat while NDX/SPX a little to the red;

Gold higher and over $1,200;

10 year Treas note - rate back up to 2.97%;

The much discussed DEATH CROSS just happened as the SMA 50 is now under the SMA 200- I think more importantly the support and resistance areas:

SPX 1010 area is the level where we got a nice bounce yesterday and I suspect any time we approach that level we will bounce- of course resistance at the old support area of 1040-

Kudos to Greg Valliere- for not towing the GOP line and calling them on the carpet for not extending the unemployment benefits - bottom line it hurts the economy and puts more folks into poverty.

Its very unfortunate - but politics has turned into I just want my party to win no matter what the ramifications-

THE FIRST READ

2010-07-01T08:22:00.004-04:00

Markets have gotten trashed the past few weeks as all the news of late has been bad. The SPX is down more than 7.5% for the year and about 12% in the last three months.

In addition with the SMA 200 @ 1,112 and the SMA 50 @ 1,119 the Death Cross of the 50 going under the 200 is about to happen - probably some time next week unless something really big happens soon.

Traders will continue to short rallies and equities will have a tough time making progress to the North.

The good news is that equities are stretched to the downside being about 7.5% below the SMA 200 and 8%+ below the SMA 50.

And here we go with more bad news as jobless claims are worse than expected and futures head south again with ES -7 and NQ down about 13.

Good news- tomorrow is NFP day and I suspect no matter how bad the number - if today is down to flat - it gets bought.

PRE MARKET LOOK

2010-06-25T08:42:00.003-04:00

Equity futures are trading near the unchanged line before the open as FINREG gets resolved and GDP for the first Q comes in at 2.7% v a 3% estimate.

Equity indexes are oversold in light of all the recent bad news and are probably due for some type of bounce back rally today-

The 1040/1050 area is still the key area that needs to hold before one concludes that the jig is up.

The Greeks- looking to sell the country so they can stay solvent;

If you need a mortgage this could be the time to refinance- ;

Bespoke checking the recent holdings of a former superstar;

And the NDX is quite the index;

NOON SWOON

2010-06-21T14:06:00.002-04:00

Equities gapped up this morning and now look to be filling the gap with the NDX turning red and the SPX up about 2 points as I type-

Market internals were opened at the highs with about 100/100 green on the NDX and over 90% green on the SPX - Now less than 50% green on the NDX and about 3/2 green on the SPX - NYSE internals at 640 net green;

Gold getting crushed and down about $23 at $1,235;

Ten year at 3.241% and up on the day;

RSI 2 levels near 95 on most major indexes with the DJIA over stretched the most.

VIX stretched to the downside and about 13% under the SMA 10;

Looking for another bounce before the day ends - but that SMA 50 on the SPX - looks a little difficult to get past in the short term - 1140 area.

NEW MORNING

2010-06-21T08:36:00.002-04:00

Equities are poised to move higher this morning as futures ripped to the north on the heels of China supposedly letting their currency move higher.

ES futs are off their best levels 1124 v a high of 1129.5.

I suspect the dip here gets bought and a move to the HOD probably gets sold again.

Equities are way overbought in the short term with major index futures trading with RSI numbers near 100.

Gold and silver futs also trading overbought with RSI 2 levels near 95.-

Meredith Whitney - who probably lost clients a ton of money over the last 12 months on CNBC this morning of course see a double dip;

BESPOKE on Gold V Dollar;

BP with some new worst case numbers ;

WSJ with their take on seafood prices -

And of course- Lady GaGa in the Bronx;

MORNING LOOK

2010-06-07T08:08:00.003-04:00

Futures are trading a bit higher this morning as everyone focuses on the 1040/1050 level in the SPX and I suspect most are expecting the area to hold.

Looking at spots on the chart - the SMA 200 on the SPX has clearly been big resistance and a big failure of late at/near the 1105 area-

My take is the market can be bought down here but a break of the 1040 level will be a very bad sign for these markets and the near to intermediate term.

Checking the numbers - RSI 2 on SPX near 20 and the VIX just a bit above the SMA 10- FWIW and I don't suspect much right now as that VIX probably falls big time on the open -

Barry with some homework on the great BP;

BESPOKE on natural gas;

WEEKEND TECHS

2010-05-23T11:08:00.003-04:00

Markets had a pretty poor week for the longs but may be sufficiently over sold to generate a nice bounce in the days to come.

The SPX closed at about 1088 under all the most talked about moving averages - Important FIB retracement levels nearby with the .236 at 1085 and the .5 at 1132. Note that these FIB numbers use 1044 as the recent low and 1220 as the high.

The SMA 200 is also nearby resistance at 1103- so a lot of sellers probably there unless we can gap above.

VIX- hit a high on Friday at 48.2 and now stand at about 40- or about 25% above the SMA 10- over bought - yes - but I think the high areas are the numbers to watch - can they hold;

RSI 2- not that meaningful except maybe for sells if they get up near 80 with all the over head resistance and moving averages.

Some technical stuff for where the market stands:

TRADER MIKE- with some T2108 analysis;

DOUG KASS with fear as a friend;

BIRINHYI on the 3 standard deviation dip;

MARKET SCI on the best indicators;

THE QUANT- with his CBI;

THE TRADERS NARRATIVE with more reason for a bounce;

DOLLAR/EQUITIES no longer helpful;

CNBC - the usual help;

And LENNY back in the news;

NOON RIP

2010-05-10T12:08:00.003-04:00

Here we go again - markets ripping higher as the European gang decides that they should save themselves- after all their banks own lots of the Greek debt - so not much of a choice.

SPX +48, NAZ +103 and the DJIA +414-

Best acting sectors include gaming, homies, emerging markets, reits and banks while gold, bonds, drugs, energy service, biotech and consumers lag.

NYSE- 3020 winners with 126 losers;

NAZ- 2436 up and 290 down;

NDX 98 GREEN;

SPX- 488/11;

VIX- down 30% at 28.6 and still above the SMA 10;

UP volume about 26x the down on the NYSE;

TRIN surprisingly at .9;

Looking for a burst higher into late afternoon - so a close at/near the highs.

Buying some EPD as I agree with this fellow.

WEEKEND WORK

2010-05-09T12:06:00.003-04:00

Been a while between postings but hard to not write something after last week- The screens were quite a sight and to break it down to the simplest common denominator how about this:

On the one minute bar on Thursday between 2.46 and 2.47 the ES dropped from 1082 to 1056 or 2.4% - not to be out done the NQ dropped even more 57 points from 1787 to 1730 or 3.2% in sixty seconds - any shot the HFT traders were involved?

Here is some tradersaudio from the good BIG BEN;

Steven Sears from Barrons and his take on the flash crash;

The forgotten man - Dylan Ratigan and his fast money analysis;

And Barry placing the blame;

My take - yup the fast HFT crowd saw profits to be made selling and they all did it at once -

And of course markets are deeply oversold and due for a bounce - but I am waiting to see some stabilization before I add to positions;

VIX - about 68% above the SMA 10 and with an RSI 2 reading of 99;

SPX - RSI 2 reading of 3 and 5.5% below the SMA 10- about as stretched as you will ever see it- note at the March 9 closing low it was also about 5.5% away;

PRE MARKET LOOK

2010-05-03T08:13:00.004-04:00

Warren Buffet on morning TV talking his book claiming GS didn't do much wrong - well not so sure on that point but futures are trading up and GS trading higher by about $3 at 148+.

The VIX spike up on Friday and now trades at 22.05 and about 20% above the SMA 10 while the RSI 2 levels on most major indexes hovering near 30.

Barrons with a very bullish article on JNJ - just in time for their product recall and as I look a the ticker its about unchanged before the open.

Watching to see if the SPX can regain the EMA 20 at /near the 1194 area -

BESPOKE looking at the earnings beat rate -and its moving down;

THE BIG DIP

2010-04-27T18:50:00.004-04:00

Markets imploded today as the fine fellows from GS went before the Senate- Most thought the Senators looked bad with silly questions- while I contend they were fine - as the public doesn't want to here folks from GS evade and repeat questions with the general intention of running out the clock-

As for the numbers - GS bounced off the $150 level and managed to close green as Dougie Kass got long near the low- not sure if he is still in as he has the habit of declaring victory early - and forgetting to update his followers on losing positions-

The SPX was down 28 points or about 2.3% finishing with an RSI 2 of 9- while the VIX ramped higher by 30% and closed about 32% above the SMA 10.

Gold did will today despite the 1% ramp by the dollar ramp - gold closed higher by 1.3% at 1168- also the high for 2010.

I am long DGP QQQQ EWC MSFT VZ and a host of pharma stocks - which held up far better than the overall market.

Looking for a little more downside tomorrow and then maybe a bounce later in the day- the numbers are aligned and buying dips in this big uptrend has been a big winning trade to date.

THE MID DAY LOOK

2010-04-20T12:04:00.004-04:00

Equities are higher as the GS scandal gets put on the back burner yet again- The SPX +8.5, NAZ +14 and the DJIA +35.

Strongest sectors- gaming, energy service, energy, Canada, homies, semis and banks while nat gas, biotech, airlines, brokers and drugs lag.

NYSE- 1800 net winners;

NAZ- 1,000 net winners;

SPX- 414/80- up to down;

NDX- 73/26 up to down;

TRIN- .88 with up volume about 5x the down;

VIX- 16 and down about 7.6% and a bit under the SMA 10;

Gold - Up about $4 at 1140;

Oil- Up a buck and change at $84+.

Bottom line - the bull market continues and a move to the recent highs near 1215 is probably baked in the cake- this fish long EWC EWZ MGM MSFT and others - so a pretty pretty good day so far-

THE GAMERS

2010-04-13T11:32:00.002-04:00

Equity markets are lower this morning but well off their worst levels - and the SPX did tag 1199.2 yesterday - so curious to see if they can bring them back and head over the 1200 level- currently SPX -4, NAZ -3 and the DJIA -8.

Strongest sectors include - gaming, real estate, junk, nat gas, homies and semis while metals, oil service, airlines, banks and energy lag.

NYSE- 920 net losers;

NAZ- 600 net losers;

SPX - 160 up and 330 down;

NDX- 42 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 6% at 16.55 and a hair under the SMA 10.

TRIN- .62 with down volume slightly higher than up;

Gold down .5% at 1150.

Dollar up a hair at 80.72.

RSI 2 levels all over the board on the major indexes:

SPX 44;

NAZ 64

NDX 80

DJIA 58

So apparently energy dragging the SPX down a bit while semis and tech are outperforming and causing the NAZ/NDX to be the winner to the upside.

Still long SMH BMY SNY GGP MGM - for short term trades - and hoping for lower prices to add.

THE SELLERS

2010-04-12T12:17:00.003-04:00

Here we go again as it looks like equities just want to go higher very very slowly- no complaints from me although I am expecting sellers to show once we hit the SPX 1200 level-

Presently the SPX +3 at 1197 while the NAZ is +3.5 and the DJIA +22.

Strongest sectors include gaming, airlines, banks, semis and energy while nat gas, biotech, reits and real estate lags.

NYSE- 470 net winners;

NAZ- 300 net winners;

SPX- 275 up and 215 down;

NDX- 53 GREEN;

TRIN- .54 with up volume about 3x the down;

VIX- continues to drip lower and at 15.57 and about 7% under the SMA 10;

Gold up a bit at 1165;

RSI 2 levels on major indexes at/near 90

Looking for sellers to step up later in the day as the 1200 SPX number gets tagged- and then the dipping should begin as hopefully the markets sells down for a few days as the DJIA could not 11k chatters talk begins- Hard to forecast this stuff but giving it a shot-

Added to positions in MSFT BMY and holding SMH as it acts pretty well.

A shame that Tiger didn't win yesterday as he is such a great guy - and why do folks think Phil held on to win- he did pretty pretty well on

the back 9 yesterday -

MORNING HIGHS

2010-04-09T11:28:00.003-04:00

Equity markets refuse to pull back and are making inter day highs as I type - SPX +5, NAZ +8 and the DJIA +52.

Strongest sectors-nat gas, silver, metals, reits, drugs and consumers while airlines, energy service, internets, gaming and bonds lag.

NYSE- 665 net winners;

NAZ- 130 net winners;

SPX- 340 GREEN;

NDX- 76 GREEN;

VIX- down 1.2% at 16.3- and about 4% below the SMA 10;

TRIN- .65 while up volume is a bit more than double the down;

GOLD higher by $12 at 1163 with a big fat RSI 2 reading of 100.

RSI 2 readings on major indexes between 80 and 90- and the march to SPX 1200 continues in my opinion- Haven't posted much of late as I have been busy with some CPA stuff-

Recent buys include SNY SMH and holding for now ;

MORE 1200

2010-04-05T16:58:00.003-04:00

Equity markets continue to move higher and the next stop of 1200 looks like it will be here sooner rather than later.

Today the SPX closed at 1,187- up about 9 points while the DJIA under performed - closed up 46 at 10973.

Strongest sectors included gaming, nat gas, semis, reits, real estate and small caps while airlines, bonds, drugs and biotechs lagged.

Market internals were very strong with the NYSE showing 1530 net winners and the NAZ with about 1250 net green.

SPX with 400 green and 96 red;

RSI 2 levels above 90 on most major indexes- while the VIX is a bit under the SMA 10.

Not willing to call a short term top but tomorrow is the turnaround Tuesday - we will see - Longs of late for this fish:

BMY MGM XLE DBC EWA EWC- and looking to buy more stuff on pullbacks-

THE 1200

2010-04-01T11:54:00.003-04:00

Markets are off to the races again today as the bad ADP number from yesterday could't derail anything and just gave the bulls a chance to buy a pull back.

At midday - the SPX is +10, NAZ +12 and the DJIA +81- I suspect the next stop for the markets is DJIA 11k and then SPX 1200.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, metals, oil service, emerging markets, airlines and energy- laggards include tech, drugs, reits, real estate and retail.

NYSE- 1570 net winners;

NAZ- 650 net winners;

SPX 431 GREEN;

NDX- 73 GREEN;

TRIN- .5 with up volume about 6x the down;

VIX- 17 and about 2% under the SMA 10- it doesn't move - one day it will and I suspect it won't be long- of course that will be a/the buying opportunity.

RSI 2- levels near 80 on most major indexes-

Looking for the SPX to hit the 1200 level before long and have been buying pullbacks- latest purchases include UL BMY MGM GGP and EWC -

Of course looking to buy more pull backs - hopefully before SPX 1200.

MIDDAY FLATS

2010-03-30T12:07:00.003-04:00

Equity markets are consolidating at midday with the DJIA flat, NAZ -1 and the SPX -1.5. Lots of low tick readings so we finally get a decent sell off-

Strongest sectors- nat gas, internets, ags, retail , tech and emerging markets- laggards include metals, gaming, banks, airlines and defense.

NYSE- 350 net losers;

NAZ- 325 net losers;

SPX- 225 up and 265 down;

NDX- 40 up and 57 down;

VIX- slightly higher and trading a hair above its SMA 10;

RSI 2 levels:

SPX 67

NAZ 63

DJIA 89

RUT 53

NDX 87

TRIN- 1.43 with down volume about 2x the up;

Bonds still not falling off the table as many expect with the yield on the 10 year at 3.87% while gold hangs in at the 1100 level-

The dollar is up again and just wondering if the big number on Friday will disappoint - causing rates and the dollar to dip ugly.

Not doing much today although bought some UL and GGP- UL is a longer term play while GGP is pulling back and lots folks are expecting a deal to be announced shortly - and their appears to be lots of interested parties -

MORNING WATCH

2010-03-26T06:43:00.002-04:00

Ugly sell down in the last hour yesterday as the DJIA gave up almost all of its triple digit gains and the SPX closed red and under the recent break out level of 1170.

How now- I suspect range bound as we are stuck under the 1170 and yesterday high level of 1180- and probably above the 1150 area as lots of dippers probably want to buy down there.

The VIX ripped about 5% and closed about 6.5% above the SMA 10- I suspect its going higher and SELLPUTS has an interesting take this morning.

Bill Gross now switching his sales pitch from bonds to stocks;

How many BIG accounting firms can we eliminate;

Could the TEA party doom the GOP chances?;

It happened a bit soon but the outs more than the ins;

RIP Johnny Maestro;

MORNING BRIEF

2010-03-23T09:01:00.004-04:00

Just as I was about to blog that the futures were trading flat- they pop higher --

NQ +3.75;

ES +2;

YM +17;

Funny as I was and still am expecting turn around Tuesday to come through- RSI 2 levels over bought near 80- and the VIX will it just hovers near the lows between 16 and 18- and of late offers no value.

Gold trading at $1,100 while the Ten year bond hovers near 3.66%;

The action has been very dull as the market have just drifted up - one day it will get violent and I suspect its coming.

Dougie Kass announcing this morning that his favorite long is the double short RUT 2K - the picture is the double long- Dougie been wrong for a while - is he due for a big winner?

Anyhow- some good stuff from Barry as he checks a health care map - too bad they don't show it on CNBC;

Some problems with the energy data;

And GS planning on low rates for quite a while;

MIDDAY SHIFT

2010-03-18T12:07:00.003-04:00

Most major market indexes are trading lower at mid day with the exception of the DJIA which is up a hair as I type- The SPX -4.5, NAZ -5 while the RUT is down 2.

Strongest sectors- ags, gold, junk, airlines and trannies while oil service, banks, energy, semis and gaming lags.

NYSE- 600 net losers;

NAZ- 400 net losers;

SPX- 167/325;

NDX 37/63;

VIX- down about 2% at 16.36;

TRIN- 1.59- with down volume almost 3x the up;

Energy one of the weakest areas today and looking for a bit more of a dip to buy some DIG or XLE - note the SMA 50 on XLE at/near 57.25-also RSI 2 now in the 20's;

I suspect lots of folks are looking to buy this market on any dip - so we probably aren't going that much lower - getting ready for some QQQQ hopefully in the 47.25 area.

UP AGAIN

2010-03-17T10:08:00.002-04:00

Here we go again for the upteenth day in a row markets are trading higher - despite the way over bought levels and the constant RSI 2 levels of 100. SPX +5.6, NAZ +11 and the DJIA +40.

Strongest sectors- homies, energy, emerging markets, banks and semis while airlines, drugs, biotechs, and retail lag.

NYSE- 1350 net winners;

NAZ- 700 net winners;

SPX- 385 GREEN;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

VIX- down 6% at 16.65 and about 7% under the SMA 10.

Up volume about 4x the down.

WINNERS- GRMN ADBE MICC NVDA YHOO AA BHI HAL SLB MET RF XOM;

LOSERS- UNH AMGN GILD BMY USB MA HD CTXS ESRX SYMC APOL BIDU WYNN;

Lots of chatter about the big winning streak but check out the action in the RUT/IWM way better than the SPX - as small caps out perform as usual.

Everyone waiting for a pullback to buy - and I continue to sell stuff and have the most amount of cash in my trading accounts that I have had in many months- Looking to sell more and buy the upcoming dip.

FRIDAY - MIDDAY CHOP/SLOP

2010-03-12T13:05:00.003-05:00

Equity markets are again flat- at midday after opening at the highs and breaking out above the 1150 level.

Strongest sectors- gaming, reits, real estate, oil service, emerging market bonds and retail- while metals, defense, homies, semis and drugs lag.

NYSE- flat internals;

NAZ- 400 net losers;

SPX- 235 up and 255 down;

NDX- 37 up and 61 down;

TRIN- 1.32 with down volume slightly better than up;

VIX- 18+ and a little below the SMA 10- and after the SPX has been up 10/11 days in a row - its quite surprising that the VIX isn't lower-

RSI-2 levels still at/near 100-

Looks like a lot of chop today - and this fish is doing very little- long GGP and looking to buy dips in DIG LVS and a few others- also out of most of my FAX position - which was very very good to me.

THE BLAHS

2010-03-08T15:47:00.003-05:00

Another difficult day to watch equities as the chop/slop was brutal from open to close- the SPX closed flat , the NAZ +6 and the DJIA -14.

Strongest sectors- gaming, homies, internets, reits and brokers while airlines, metals, biotech, drugs and semis lagged.

RSI 2 levels at/near 100 on most major indexes so a pullback should happen pretty soon and tomorrow is Turnaround Tuesday - so be aware there.

VIX about 17.6 and nearly 8% below the SMA 10-

Not much trading of late - as been taking it a bit easy of late- still net long and not desire to change that any time soon- IMHO pullbacks are for buying-

THE CLOSE

2010-03-04T16:47:00.003-05:00

A brutal day to watch equities as we were stuck in a very tight range for most of the day- However the SPX got a little jiggy late and managed to close higher by 4 while the NAZ jumped 12 and the DJIA +47.

Strong sectors- retail, internets, fins, brokers and reits while metals, gaming, airlines, biotech and energy lagged.

NYSE- 460 net winners;

NAZ- 250 net winners;

SPX - 288 GREEN;

NDX- 51 GREEN;

VIX- FLAT at 18.7 and about 5% under the SMA 10.

SPX way overbought with an RSI 2 reading of 98 - and NFP day tomorrow - so cleaned up the balance of my SSO - all sold out - and waiting probably till next week to reload-

IT CONTINUES

2010-03-03T11:19:00.002-05:00

Here we go again- equities are up along with metals and oil- the SPX +7, NAZ +12 and the DJIA +55.

Strongest sectors- metals, emerging markets, energy, homies and gaming while brokers, reits, real estate and drugs lag.

NYSE- 1300 net winners;

NAZ- 700 net winners;

SPX- 390 GREEN;

NDX- 70 GREEN;

VIX- down 3% and about 7% under the SMA 10;

TRIN- .56 with up volume about 5x the down;

RSI- 2 levels still above 95 on major indexes - selling some longs and thinking we pull back some time before summer- letting go of more SSO;

NOON LOOK

2010-03-02T11:57:00.003-05:00

Equity markets are higher this morning but haven't moved much in either direction since near the open- the SPX is 6.6, NAZ +15 and the DJIA +42.

Strong sectors- metals, biotech, energy, banks and emerging markets while airlines, ags, retail and trannies lag.

NYSE- 1450 net winners;

NAZ- 900 net winners;

NDX- 68 GREEN;

SPX- 370 GREEN;

VIX- down 2% at 18.85.

TRIN- .85 with up volume about 3x the down.

RSI 2 levels way overbought and I am selling some SSO that I have accumulated over the past few weeks -

THE CLOSE

2010-02-25T16:50:00.003-05:00

Equities closed the day lower but well off their worst levels - SPX -2.31, NAZ -1.68 and the DJIA -53.

Strongest sectors - metals, real estate, trannies, junk and bonds while nat gas, energy, emerging markets and airlines lagged.

NYSE 100 net losers;

NAZ- 700 net losers;

NDX- 28/63;

SPX- 147/297;

TRIN - 1.02 with up and down volume about equal;

VIX- down about 1% at 20- and a little below the SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels- at/near 50 on the SPX and higher on the RUT and the NAZ/NDX;

So back in the middle of the range and an impressive late day rally getting the market back near the flat line after being down big early- above 1100 on the SPX and all those tv guys looking for 1075- this morning - well I guess not- still about the dollar and the EURO - so we will see

THE SWOON

2010-02-23T12:50:00.003-05:00

A little more than half the trading day gone and equities are at/near their lows of the day- SPX-13.5, NAZ-33 and the DJIA -90.

Strongest sectors- bonds, retail, utils, biotech and drugs while, metals, semis, energy, homies and banks lag.

NYSE-1425 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

SPX- 38/ 457 green to red;

NDX- 8/92 green to red;

VIX higher by 8%+ - but still trading about 4% below the SMA 10-;

TRIN 2.3- with down volume about 8x the up.

RSI 2 levels near 15 on the SPX and a bit lower on the NDX- will probably buy some SSO/QLD near the close -

HALF TIME CHECK

2010-02-22T12:19:00.003-05:00

A very boring day in the markets so far with the SPX -2, NAZ -5 and DJIA -16.

Strongest sectors- gaming, banks, airlines, junk and trannies while nat gas, energy, metals and semis lag.

NYSE-150 net losers;

NAZ- flat inernals;

NDX- 30/70 green to red;

SPX - 185/315 green to red;

Up and down volume about equal;

VIX- up a hair and VXO down a bit- both still way over sold;

The SPX trading above the EMA 20 and near the SMA 50 - and with an RSI 2 level near 70- and I don't see much of an edge from these levels- and it looks like a very sloppy and choppy day.

Jeff Saut and his latest commentary- always a great read-

THE MOVES

2010-02-19T10:38:00.003-05:00

Equities are trading slightly lower but well off their worst levels of the over night session- SPX -2, NAZ -7 and DJIA -20.

Strongest sectors- silver, dollar, utils, trannies and banks while nat gas, metals, real estate and semis lag.

NYSE- 200 net losers;

NAZ- 325 net losers;

SPX- flat internals;

NDX- 47 GREEN;

VIX- down slightly and about 13% under the SMA 10.

Equities really starting to shake off the discount rate hike but lots of resistance above at the SMA 50 near 1108- also RSI 2 and VIX levels ind the markets will not move much higher with out some backing and filling or a pull back.

THE CLOSE

2010-02-16T16:01:00.003-05:00

Equities closed the day near the highs as the dollar tanked and the EUROUSD soared- SPX +19.36, NAZ +30.66 and the DJIA +169.75.

Strongest sectors- gaming, metals, reits and banks while nat gas, internets, drugs and retail lagged.

NYSE- 1910 net winners;

NAZ- 1000 net winners;

SPX 408 GREEN;

NDX- 84 GREEN;

VIX- down almost 2% despite the run up in stocks - seems a bit light - and about 8% under the SMA 10;

RSI 2 levels - way overbought as most major indexes trade above 90 with the NAZ/RUT leading at levels over 97.

Looking for a run to 1100- obviously not far from here- also looking for further runs in energy and metals - and a EURUSD run to 137- looks like solid resistance.

EARLY LOOK

2010-02-16T07:49:00.002-05:00

Equity futures are trading higher this morning but well off their best levels- ES trading at 1082- and if equities opened here - the SPX would be near 1085- or about 10 points above Friday's cash close.

Looking at the picture - a nice intermediate bottom looks to have formed on the hammer of Feb 5.

Gold way up at $1,115 with resistance showing near $1,150.

The dollar down at 80.275 after bouncing from the 80.05 level earlier this morning.

JNK and HYG, both down over 7% from their January highs may be an interesting play here as they trade near their respective 200 SMA's - first time since May of 2009.

DR Brett on STOPS;

Kellner on the pork addiction;

Credit card charge offs jumping yet again;

Taliban top commander captured;

A surprising Dick Cheney on DONT ASK DONT TELL;

And now we know what Charlie was doing while he wasn't on the air;

THE JUNK

2010-02-11T16:01:00.002-05:00

Equities markets closed near their highs with the NYSE A/D line specifically closing at its best level- with 1650 net winners- SPX +10.36, NAZ +29.5 and the DJIA +106.

Strongest sectors- gaming, metals, emerging markets, semis and energy while brokers, banks, junk and utils lagged.

WINNERS- ATVI WYNN JOYG MRVL NVDA CAT PM XRX NSC FCX HAL;

LOSERS- S EXC MS MET BMY SLE MDT FLIR DISH EXPE XRAY APOL URBN;

VIX- lower by 5%+ and trading a bit under the SMA 10;

SPX - a bit extended in the short term with an RSI 2 level near 80;

Some warning signs on the horizon- the high yield market has been troubling of late with both the HYG and JNK off about 7% from their recent mid January highs - and they were barely green today - when they should have ramped-

MIDDAY REPORT

2010-02-10T12:39:00.002-05:00

Equities are trading near the flat line after being lower earlier- the dollar again playing the big dog as it moved higher and now has flipped back down near support at the 80 area. SPX -.50, NAZ -1 and the DJIA flat.

Strongest sectors- brokers, banks, real estate, semis, reits and gaming while junk, metals, airlines, drugs and internets lag.

NYSE-440 net losers;

NAZ- 500 net losers;

SPX- 205 GREEN;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

VIX- lower by 2.5% and a bit over the SMA 10.

TRIN- .95 with down volume a hair better then the up and light over all.

Watching the dollar as it heads back to the 80 area and suspecting that support area will hold causing the equity rally to fizzle-

THE NUMBERS

2010-02-08T17:33:00.004-05:00

Equities closed lower today after giving the upside a run in the morning- SPX -9.5, NAZ -15 and the DJIA -104.

Strongest sectors- homies, ags, junk, airlines and retail while metals, real estate, reits, financials and banks lagged.

NYSE- 850 net losers;

NAZ- 600 net losers;

SPX - 115 GREEN;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.99 with down volume about 3x the up.

VIX- 26.5 and higher by about 1.5% and about 10% above the SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels between 10 and 15 on the major indexes so another sell off tomorrow may bring some significant buy signals for the longs-

Also seems like support on the SPX near 1050 and below that at the SMA 200 at/near 1020- here we go.

WEEKEND STUFF

2010-02-07T05:12:00.005-05:00

Equity markets didn't behave very well for the longs while I was gone but Friday certainly was interesting as the buyers stormed in to recover all the losses in the final hour of trading.

The SPX appears to be oversold for the time being and I did buy some stuff late on Friday - (MSFT MKC ABT SSO).

The VIX is still in over bought territory at about 9% above the SMA 10- while the SPX stands at an RSI 2 of 23- also note the stretch on the bands which are 3 standard deviations -

Trading the SPX now - definitely good support at Friday's lows and of course the SMA 200 at/near 1020-

Dr. Brett with some good stuff on Friday-

Trader Mike looking at some price levels;

The TRIMTABS guys wondering what happened to the guy;

And there are definitely some good reasons to invest in MSFT at these levels;

An update on credit ratings for various countries and states- pretty good;

Lots of hungry people in this country - too sad;

BACK ON FRIDAY

2010-02-01T17:30:00.002-05:00

MIDDAY CHECK

2010-02-01T13:15:00.003-05:00

Equities are moving higher today as the over sold bounce is upon us- SPX +12.5, NAZ +18 and the DJIA +103.

Strongest sectors- gaming, metals, nat gas, oil service and semis while internets, retail, bonds, ags and homies lag.

NYSE- 1620 net winners;

NAZ- 600 net winners;

SPX- 425 GREEN;

NDX- 80 GREEN;

VIX- lower by about 7% and trading at the SMA 10.

TRIN- .62 with up volume about 6x the down and light overall.

WINNERS- STX NVDA VMED MRVL WYNN FCX RF HAL DOW BHI AA

LOSERS- AMZN GILD CL AEP TGT SLE MMM WCRX APOL CA ATVI NWSA BIIB MYL

RSI 2 levels still with a way to go before they hit over bought territory as most major indexes trade between 50 and 60 on the RSI 2 scale-

The dollar down .25% while gold is ripping higher at $1105- seems like range bound trading in the yellow metal for now.

Bought some MSFT and PEP near the open as they seem pretty good for the short term-

THE OPEN

2010-01-27T09:58:00.003-05:00

Equities open mixed as we appear to be at some near term support on the SPX - currently SPX flat, NAZ +6 and the DJIA -4.

Strongest sectors- internets, banks, semis, brokers and biotech while nat gas, homies, metasl, gaming and reits lag.

NYSE- 780 net losers;

NAZ- 100 net winners;

SPX- 195 GREEN;

NDX- 46 GREEN;

TRIN- .63 with up and down volume about equal;

VIX- flat at 24.45 and about 15% above the SMA 10.

Gold a bit lower while the dollar is a hair higher.

Equities feel like they want to go down although support on the SPX at near 1090 level - the SMA 100M near here at 1088- thinking that is not going to hold and this fish is holding powder - did buy some SSO the other day but waiting to add more - right now doesn't feel quite right.

STILL OVERSOLD

2010-01-25T17:25:00.002-05:00

Equity markets closed higher today but hardly the big bounce many expected - SPX +5, NAZ +5.5 and the DJIA +24.

Strongest sectors included - semis, energy and retail while metals, biotech, internets and drugs lagged.

NYSE- 430 net winners;

NAZ- flattish internals;

NDX- 57 green;

SPX- 300 GREEN;

TRIN- .94 with up volume about 1.5x the down;

VIX- down 7% and now only about 28% above the SMA 10.

Buy and long signals still the case as most volatility indexes way over bought - as follows:

VXO- 22% above SMA 10.

VXN- 27% above SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels as follows:

SPX 23

NDX 21

DJIA 15

NAZ 16

Tomorrow is TT so lets see what it has - currently AAPL trading up a bit in AH - while the futs are within a point of where they closed.

BUY MORTIMER

2010-01-24T13:54:00.003-05:00

In the picture above- the VXO volatility index (OEX)- plotted against the SPX 500- also included in the VXO chart are bollinger bands between 2/3/4 standard deviations from the 50 SMA - and right now about as stretched as they get- our friend Fari calls these sigma channels- and I bet he would reach a similar conclusion-

Other recent times that the VXO was stretched - although not quite this far:

March 6- 09 SPX 693

July 8 -09 SPX 880

Sept 2- 09 SPX 995

Oct 2-09 SPX 1025

Oct 30- 09 SPX 1036

So here we go again - stretched at 4 standard deviations on the VXO - my best guess - BUY MORTIMER.

THE VIX/SPX

2010-01-22T16:02:00.003-05:00

A very ugly day for equities and many folks pining for the days of George W. Bush - as under Obama the SPX has now moved from 805 to 1092- while under dubya from 1350 to 805- interesting- and how quickly we forget.

Anyhow, the SPX down 25 and down 60 points from the recent high of 1150-

The VIX shot up 24% to close at 27.6 and now trades about 43% above the SMA 10- YOWZA - don't see that very often.

RSI 2 level at about 5 on the SPX - so buy signals galore - just like yesterday -

I did put on some SSO earlier and still holding - looking to buy more next week- for now its ugly but I suspect this too will change - just like everyone was hoping for a pullback at much higher levels and now that its here folks are scared silly.

THE QLD

2010-01-21T12:44:00.002-05:00

Equities are getting crushed on the heels of a rule limiting proprietary trading by big banks - not sure why PFE is down 3% but it is- Anyhow - SPX -20, NAZ -28 and the DJIA -210.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, internets, bonds and ags while metals, Brazil, gaming, emerging markets, homies and defense lags.

NYSE- 1800 net losers;

NAZ- 1300 net losers;

SPX - 60/440;

NDX- 16 GREEN;

VIX- 21.35 and higher by 14% and about 16% above the SMA 10.

TRIN- 1.76 with down volume about 6x the up.

RSI 2 levels- not quite at the buy point but they are pretty low- also note the SMA 50 on the SPX is near 1115- so right here and now:

SPX 12

COMPQ 16

DJIA 10

NDX 17

XLE 8

XLF 10

Not ready to dip in yet- waiting till the end of the day - and looking at the NDX - so QLD it will be -

THE DOLLAR DISC

2010-01-19T11:24:00.004-05:00

Equities have made a nice come back this morning despite the lousy news out of Citi - the SPX +9, NAZ +24 and the DJIA +75.

Strongest sectors include drugs, airlines, reits, emerging markets and small caps while nat gas, gaming, banks, metals and energy lags.

NYSE- 1235 net winners;

NAZ- 800 net winners;

SPX- 390/105 up to down;

NDX- 86/13 up to down;

VIX- down 2% while the VXX is down about 5%;

TRIN- .93 with up volume more than 2x the down;

Gold flat while crude down a bit and the dollar ripping higher again and clearly disconnected from equities for now.

Drug stocks leading the way as folks are thinking a victory in MASS will lead to the end of the health care reform bill- not so sure but that is what its saying for now-

In addition the SPX bounced off the EMA 20 on Friday and it was a pretty good entry point for a short term trade - so holding some SSO and selling some FAX as the yield is probably near the bottom of the intermediate term range.

THE MELT

2010-01-15T12:48:00.003-05:00

Equities have approached the EMA 20 on the SPX (1131) as they have sold off big time today- the SPX -16, NAZ -35 and the DJIA -140- as a sell the news mind set has definitely come into play. INTC and JPM were pretty good but no matter.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, bonds, retail, junk and real estate while semis, airlines, metals, banks and gaming lags.

NYSE- 1700 net losers;

NAZ- 1500 net losers;

SPX - 35 GREEN;

NDX- 8 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 7.4% at 18.93 and 2% above the SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels as follows:

SPX 19

NAZ 23

NDX 18

RUT 22

DJIA 18

XLF 19

XLE 15

TRIN 2.78- with down volume about 10x the up.

Probably going to dip in and buy some SSO DDM QLD near the close as a bounce back should happen on Turnaround Tuesday - other than that standing still.

MORNING LOOK

2010-01-14T11:29:00.004-05:00

Equities are trading flat after opening higher this morning-SPX flat - NAZ +3 DJIA +14.

Strongest sectors- gaming, drugs, banks, oil service and tech while nat gas, semis, metals, retail and internets lag.

NYSE- flat internals;

NAZ- 150 net winners;

SPX- 205 GREEN;

NDX- 40 GREEN;

Gold down a hair at 1136 while silver is down 8 cents at 18.57.

Oil and nat gas both down very little.

VIX- down a bit at 17.73 and about 6% under the SMA 10.

TRIN- .99 with up and down volume about equal-

Still long LVS/XME /VVTV and just wondering about the recent under performance of the EWZ this has been a big dog during the last 12 months and now lagging -

Looking to add to LVS and XME - as I don't see the markets getting crushed anytime soon.

THE CLOSE

2010-01-13T16:41:00.003-05:00

Equities closed a bit off their best levels of the day - but the markets did turn around and send the shorts home unhappy yet again.

SPX +9.5, NAZ+25.5 and the DJIA +54.

Strongest sectors- airlines, reits, silver, semis and banks while energy, ags, emerging markets and brokers lagged.

NYSE- 1200 net winners;

NAZ- 800 net winners;

SPX- 410 GREEN;

NDX- 91 GREEN;

VIX- down 2% at 17.85.

TRIN- .84 with up volume about 3x the down.

Bought the dip today and now am long XME LVS BAC and small guy VVTV - as it looks like equities will continue the upward move probably taking out the tough 1150 resistance level-

RSI 2 levels not that stretched at under 70 on most major indexes - I suspect lots of folks bought that dip as that has been the money trade for some time.

LOOKING TO DIP

2010-01-13T10:51:00.002-05:00

Equities are trading a bit lower after starting out in green territory - SPX -1, NAZ -2 and the DJIA -4.

Strongest sectors- airlines, drugs, reits and tech while nat gas, energy, homies, semis and banks lag.

NYSE- 250 net red;

NAZ- flat internals;

SPX- 247/240;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.24 with up and down volume about equal.

VIX- 18.4 and near the unchanged level for the day.

Markets hanging in as I type and suspecting we may get a move higher before the day ends - areas I am looking at for longs include LVS XME EWC MS BAC-

FINALLY

2010-01-12T13:00:00.003-05:00

Equities are selling off and pretty hard as the SPX is down 14, NAZ -36 and the DJIA -85.

Strongest sectors include nat gas, bonds, consumers, drugs and gaming while semis, metals, airlines, homies and real estate are the biggest losers.

NYSE- 1610 net losers;

NAZ- 1200 net losers;

SPX- 79 GREEN;

NDX- 7 GREEN;

Gold- down $14 at 1138 while silver is lower by 30 cents at 18.29.

Crude down 1.5 while nat gas is higher by 2% at 5.57.

TRIN- 1.8 with down volume about 8x the up.

VIX - higher by 9.5% and trading a hair under the SMA 10.

Equities finally working off the over bought levels that were attained yesterday when the VIX was more than 10% under the SMA 10 and the RSI 2 levels on the SPX was at/near 97-

So the sell off starts and I am looking to scale into some XME EWC and maybe some others- don't think today is the end so waiting for later in the week to scale into most of the trades.

Big Mark admits he took roids - not all that shocking - the big news is he said they didn't help him hit home runs- what nonsense- they only helped me with injuries - sure - that is why all these guys took these banned substances - cause they didn't think they would help

MORNING MUCK

2010-01-11T11:03:00.003-05:00

Equities are lower this morning led down by the NAZ/NDX and tech- SPX -2, NAZ -13 and the DJIA -5.

Strongest sectors- gaming, metals, drugs, reits, biotech and trannies while oil service, airlines, internets, retail and tech lags.

NYSE- flattish internals;

NAZ- 250 net red;

SPX- 220/270;

NDX- 27/72;

VIX- 17.4 and about 11% under the SMA 10.

TRIN- .77 with up volume about 150% of the down.

Markets overbought at these levels - as RSI 2 was in the high 90's on the SPX - and with the VIX so far under the SMA 10- it was a pretty good bet that the market would sell down from those levels.

THE GOV

2010-01-07T20:02:00.002-05:00

Everyone all excited about tomorrow and it should be pretty wild - but here are some good links in advance of the big number:

BESPOKE- on the new year FLIP;

And checking on the High yield rally;

Jason on the stalling rally;

Palin back in the news - and it will probably lift her ratings;

Leno also appears to be back as Conan probably goes into obscurity;

Despite constantly being made fun- the French are number where it counts the most;

THE MIX

2010-01-07T12:05:00.003-05:00

Equities trading mixed at midday with the SPX up a hair - and the NAZ/NDX down about .5%- but both indexes well off the worst levels of the day.

Strongest sectors- banks, airlines, homies, gaming, retail and real estate while semis, internets, metals, emerging markets and tech lag.

NYSE - flat internals;

NAZ- 90 net losers;

SPX- 220 GREEN;

NDX- 31 GREEN;

VIX- down a hair at 19 and about 4% under the SMA 10.

TRIN- .78 with up volume slightly better than down.

Gold down about .5% at 1131 while silver is up a bit at 18.27.

Crude down a bit while energy stocks are lagging the major indexes.

RSI 2 levels diverging among the major indexes as follows:

SPX 83

NAZ 26

DJIA 67

NDX 25

RUT 62

So probably time to buy the NAZ/NDX and sell the SPX - or something like that - not sure we get much more action today as most are waiting for the jobs numbers tomorrow.

DIGGING OUT

2010-01-06T13:21:00.002-05:00

Equity markets are bouncing around the flat line with strength being found in metals and commodities.

Strongest sectors- metals, energy, biotech, banks and retail while gaming, internets, airlines, tech and real estate lag.

NYSE- 700 net green;

NAZ- flattish internals;

SPX- 272 GREEN;

NDX- 42 GREEN;

VIX- down 2.3% at 18.9 and about 5% under the SMA 10.

TRIN- .74 with up volume about 2x the down.

Looking to take off all trades with stop under DIG and GDX - although expecting a move higher before the close- and still looking at a sell off on the payroll number on Friday- just seems like everyone is expecting really good news.

THE CHOP

2010-01-05T11:23:00.002-05:00

Equities seem to be consolidating with the DJIA down 30 and the SPX higher by less than a point.

Strongest sectors- gaming, airlines, metals, energy and trannies while nat gas, reits, drugs and semis lag.

NYSE- 372 net green;

NAZ- 60 net red;

SPX - 215 GREEN;

NDX- 38 GREEN;

TRIN- .59 with up volume more than double the down- interesting;

VIX - down about 2% at 19.67 and a few percent under the SMA 10;

RSI 2 levels- nearing 80 as we struggle at the these new over bought levels.

Lagging etf's include XRT XLK and the big standout IYR with an RSI 2 level nearing 3.

Still long SLV but sold the last of my VALE - on the spike up this morning.

Bottom line - looking at a range bound day with a move up later in the week in front of the big payroll number on Friday.

THE VALE

2010-01-04T11:10:00.002-05:00

Equities are off to the races with the SPX +16.5, NAZ +40 and the DJIA +142. Helping lead the way- the dollar- which is down .5% at 77.72.

Strongest sectors- just what the bulls want- gaming, energy, metals, emerging markets and small caps while airlines, retail, real estate and internets lag.

NYSE- 1950 net winners;

NAZ- 1600 net winners;

SPX- 450 GREEN;

NDX- 92 GREEN;

VIX- down 5.5% at 20.45- and a hair above the SMA 10.

TRIN- .58 - with BAC C AIG helping and FRE hurting.

GOLD- higher by $25 and silver up almost 4% at 17.55.

Have been long DIG and VALE for a little while and will probably take some off both today- markets obviously getting a little over bought here and with TT tomorrow - well - here are the RSI 2 numbers:

SPX 74

DJIA 71

NAZ 79

NDX 75

RUT 78

GOLD 92

SILVER 94

DIG 82

VALE 96

So there it is to start the year - my predictions on gold and SPX at a nice start.

WEEKEND UPDATE

2010-01-03T11:12:00.005-05:00

Ok- the start of a new year and a new decade - good grief - Twenty ten and the 10's I predict will be ok for most-

I am expecting a good year for equities and will go out on a limb with an expectation of a 15% gain on the SPX.

No idea on where the dollar is going but I do expect that before the year ends gold will touch $1,500 per ounce- and will revisit the price next year at the same time.

In barron's this week- they are bullish on CVX and expecting decent returns from a big winner in 2009- junk bonds - they are thinking the spread between junk and Treasuries remains the same - so a pretty good yield -and a good return even if prices fall a bit.

Barry with a look at job disappearance by County.

One reason for my bullishness- money coming into funds.

The NYTIMES- with a look at food stamps.

GOODBYE ZEROES

2009-12-31T07:29:00.004-05:00

Equity futures are trading higher with the ES +2.5, NQ +2 and YM +14.

The dollar is lower by about .5% at 77.9 while gold is +1% at 1104.

Its going to be another slow day so not going to be here very long - but first some links:

The Market Sci blog with its most popular posts of 2009- some very good stuff.

The NYTIMES with the key obits of the decade.

New York - not so good.

The list from 1999 no longer on the list.

Jim Grant on the surging economy.

GOLD to 5k.

BESPOKE -the round table.

Rick Warren- pleading for money.

Dave Barry -2009.

Finally- farewell to the zero's - the ten's have to be better -

MIDDDAY SNOOZE

2009-12-30T12:25:00.003-05:00

Equities are bouncing around near the flat line with the SPX -1, NAZ -1 and the DJIA +1.

Strongest sectors- semis, tech, junk, emerging markets and ags while gaming, metals, internets and retail.

NYSE- 600 net losers;

NAZ- 500 net losers;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

SPX- 218 GREEN;

VIX- 20.1 and a hair below the SMA 10.

TRIN- 1.37 with down volume about 2x the up.

BAC FRE FNM C all lower.

Very little in the way of excitement and looking to turn off the machines and head out shortly- and probably done for the week as my time can be better spent at the gym- on the bike.

THE FLOPS

2009-12-28T12:42:00.002-05:00

Equities are pretty quiet starting the week with the SPX flat , NAZ +4 and the DJIA +11.

Market internals have been dipping most of the morning with the NAZ the worst at 400 net red- SPX not so good either at 225/270.

I sold some IYR and bought some SLV - but it should be a boring week-

Anyhow- some good links to start -

The QUANT and his greatest hits for 2009;

Jeff Saut turning a little cautious after nailing it;

The BESPOKE Roundtable;

Some other flops of the decade besides equities;

Finally- Cramerica;

MORNING BRIEF

2009-12-28T09:59:00.002-05:00

Equity indexes have opened higher but seem to be struggling at these levels as - we are way overbough as witnessed by the following RSI 2 levels:

SPX 97

DJIA 96

NAZ 98

NDX 98

RUT 98

Stronges sectors- energy, reits, real estate, Brazil, internets and retail while bonds, homies, trannies, semis and brokers lag.

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- flat internals;

SPX- 275 GREEN;

NDX- 55 GREEN;

Gold flat at 1105 while the dollar is down about .25%;

Oil up not quite 1% at $78.7.

All the little junk higher including FNM FRE AIG C and BAC.

This fish looking to buy some pullbacks today - and it appears that QLD is the place - My VALE has ripped off the bottom and will probably scale out of that this morning - other thing that looks interesting at these levels- SILVER.

GONE FISHING

2009-12-22T09:14:00.002-05:00

BACK NEXT WEEK

THE PAUSE

2009-12-20T12:00:00.002-05:00

About 8 trading day left in the year and some trends may be changing- check the recent performance on the ETF's of the commodity focused country's- the EWA EWC EWZ v the SPX and NAZ/NDX shows they are losing of late-

EWA recent high was 24.57 on Nov 16 and is off about 8.5% at 22.48- for the year +61.3%.

EWC recent high was 26.92 on Dec 2 and is off about 4.5% at 25.7- for the year +48%.

EWZ - recent high was 80.93 on Dec 3 and is off almost 10% at 73.08 - for the year +112.5%.

EEM - recent high was 42.52 on Dec 4 and is off about 5% at 40.43- for the year +65%.

The tech heavy NDX/NAZ - both trading about .5% off their highs- and both looked very nice on Friday on the heels of the news from RIMM and ORCL.

NDX +49% for the year;

NAZ +40% for the year;

SPX +22% for the year;

RUT +22% for the year;

SPX - down about 1.5% from its recent highs while the RUT is down about 2.4% - so the question is if the trend has changed or if we are having the pause/pullback that refreshes - my guess is these Commodity heavy countries start outperforming again after the start of the new year.

MIDDAY MARKETS

2009-12-18T11:28:00.004-05:00

Equities are mixed with NAZ green and the DJIA red while the SPX is flat- clear strength in tech thanks to RIMM and ORCL while weakness in BA PG and CAT.

Strongest sectors nat gas, biotech, banks metals and semis while airlines, gaming, retail, real estate and ags lag.

NYSE-425 net losers;

NAZ- 60 net winners;

SPX- 175/320;

NDX- 47 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 1.5% at 22.85 and about 4% above the SMA 10.

TRIN- .72- as BAC and C skew it to the bullish side.

The dollar causing all kinds of problems for equities but surprisingly gold is still green and has bounced from the lows- thinking we are heading lower and putting out shorts with SDS.

MORNING DIP

2009-12-17T10:54:00.004-05:00

Equities getting beat up today as the dollar moves on up and is higher by about 1% at the $78 level.

Gold getting hit hard as it is down by $24 at the $1,115 area.

NYSE-1400 net losers;

NAZ- 1050 net losers;

SPX- 125/370;

NDX 10/89;

TRIN- 2.2 with down volume about 6x the up;

VIX- 21.55- higher by 5% and about 2% under the SMA 10.

Strong sectors- nag gas, banks, junk, energy and retail while metals, gaming, emerging markets and airlines lag.

Energy starting to outperform again and the trade of long XLE short SPX starting to work -

Metals may also be worth a shot here as the RSI 2 on the DXY is approaching 97- other interesting RSI levels as follows:

SPX 20

QQQQ 20

DJIA 10

RUT 41

EEM 15

EWA 6

EWC 26

EWH 14

EWZ 5

I bought some VALE and looking to add some EEM/EWA as they are under performing of late but suspecting that may change soon enough.

THE MAN

2009-12-16T10:36:00.002-05:00

Equities are trading higher after turnaround Tuesday came in as expected yesterday SPX +6.7, NAZ +13.6 and the DJIA +46.

Strongest sectors- metals, semis, energy, homies, brokers and airlines while defense, banks, junk, biotech and retail lags.

NYSE- 1200 net green;

NAZ- 700 net green;

SPX- 388 GREEN;

NDX- 82 GREEN;

WINNERS- AA WY SLB HAL XRX DVN DOW NVDA HANS ADBE BRCM STX MRVL LOGI;

LOSERS- STLD GILD ESRX INTC FSLR LINTA PPDI C BA LOW USB HON RTN ETR MRK;

VIX- down 4% and about 6% under the SMA 10.

TRIN- 1.32 with up volume almost double the down;

The dollar is under 77 again and down about .4% whild gold is higher by 1.15% or about $13.

Markets probably in a tight range for the rest of the day and the week so I anticipate taking some gains here and doing little else for the balance of the week /month.

TT TOMORROW

2009-12-14T16:46:00.002-05:00

Equities meandered most of the day but did close higher with the SPX +7.7, NAZ +22 and the DJIA +29.5 and held back by XOM.

Strongest sectors- gaming, nat gas, metals, real estate and small caps while internets, brokers, emerging markets and airlines lagged.

NYSE- 1370 net winners;

NAZ- 900 net winners;

SPX- 415 green;

NDX- 87 green;

VIX- down 2% at 21.15 and about 4% under the SMA 10.

TRIN- 1.17 with up volume about 2.5x the down;

RSI 2 levels as follows:

SPX 93

NDX 82

COMPQ 94

RUT 92

DJIA 92

VIX 12

VXX 7

Markets over bought but we are in very bullish time of year - but then again tomorrow is TTuesday- so this fish took some stuff off QLD- and looking for a quick pull back.

MORNING TRENDS

2009-12-14T10:46:00.003-05:00

Equities are trading higher this morning but it seems pretty uninspiring- SPX +3.75, NAZ +7 and DJIA +14.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, energy, ags, junk, drugs and defense while internets, brokers, airlines and banks lag.

NYSE- 625 net green;

NAZ- 150 net green;

SPX- 350 GREEN;

NDX- 71 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.21 with up volume a little bit better than down-

VIX- 21.25 and down 1.6% - trading 3% under the SMA 10.

The dollar is bouncing around this morning and seems to be fairly trendless

Not expecting much today as it just feels like equities are tired and won't go up or down from these levels without some new catalyst- .

MORNING ISSUES

2009-12-11T10:25:00.003-05:00

Equities are trading higher but lots of cross currents - SPX +3.5, NAZ +2.5 and the DJIA +40.

Strongest sectors- airlines, gaming, defense, retail, consumers and small caps while metals, semis, tech, biotech, drugs and brokers lag.

NYSE- 920 net winners;

NAZ- 600 net winners;

SPX - 360 GREEN;

NDX- 56 GREEN;

TRIN- .81 with up volume 2.5x the down.

VIX- flat and trading a hair over the SMA 10.

Gold down about $11 while the dollar keeps moving higher and now at/near 77.

Cross currents- yea - indexes looking ok except for tech and the naz which are lagging after starting out in the lead - JNK trading ok while the dollar is lots higher- - for now going with strong internals and buying some dips IN THE DJIA /SPX.

THE REVERSION

2009-12-10T11:27:00.003-05:00

Equities are trading higher and continuing the move off the lows from yesterday- The SPX +8.5, NAZ +15 and DJIA +85.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, internets, energy, retail and ags while brokers, metals, reits, gaming, homies and real estate lags.

NYSE-900 net winners;

NAZ- flat internals;

SPX- 390 GREEN;

NDX- 78 GREEN;

TRIN- .92 with up volume about 2x the down;

VIX- 22.2 and lower by 2% and trading about 2% under the SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels at near 80 on most major indexes with the NDX/QQQQ over 85.

One winning group today is energy and it has lagged since late October and may be ready for some reversion to the mean trading- so buying some DIG and still long BRF GDX QLD QQQQ.

THE CLOSE

2009-12-09T16:02:00.002-05:00

Equities did what they were supposed to do - rally from oversold levels- SPX closed +4, NAZ +11 and DJIA +51.

Strongest sectors - metals, oil service, tech, semis, Australia and Canada while nat gas, gaming, internets, retail and reits lagged.

NYSE- 260 net green;

NAZ- flat internals;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

SPX- 275 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.14 with up and down volume about equal.

VIX- down about 4% and trading a hair over the SMA 10.

Gold about unchanged and the dollar down a bit.

Sold some QQQQ that I bought earlier in the day but holding some for a rally continuation- also owning some GDX and BRF for further upside action-

MORNING UPDATE

2009-12-09T10:24:00.003-05:00

Equity markets are trading lower yet again as the bulls are having a difficult time catching a break of late. SPX -3.75, NAZ -13 and the DJIA -22.

Sector strength - metals, nat gas, oil service, ags, junk and drugs while airlines, gaming, retail, internets and defense lags.

NYSE-885 net losers;

NAZ- 900 net losers;

SPX- 137 green;

NDX- 17 green;

TRIN- .53 with up and down volume about equal-

VIX- flattish an trading about 5% above the SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels in buy territory on most major indexes as they trade near 10 except for the RUT which is out performing of late.

Gold- trading up 10 at 1140 while the dollar is down a tad at 76.46.

I am scaling in to some QQQQ /QLD and some GDX- also may add to DGP which I have been in and out of lately.

The Brazilian small caps also look interesting BRF-

UNEVENTFUL CLOSE

2009-12-07T16:14:00.003-05:00

Fairly uneventful day in the equity markets as the SPX closed down 2.75, the NAZ -5 and the DJIA +1.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, defense, semis, airlines and biotech while gaming, reits, metals, banks and brokers lagged.

NYSE- 275 net winners;

NAZ- flat internals;

SPX- 235 up and 255 down;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.55 down volume about 1.5x the up;

VIX- higher by 4% and about even with the SMA 10.

RSI 2 levels on major indexes as follows:

SPX 43

NAZ 63

DJIA 45

NDX 37

XLE 9

OIH 8

DBC 8

EWA 12

So some stuff in pullback areas but thinking we go lower so holding some powder dry- did sell some DGP today to lower the exposure and take a little risk off the table although I suspect we go higher before long.

MARKET MOVES

2009-12-07T10:49:00.003-05:00

Equity markets are trading near the flat line in an uneventful session unless one is involved with the metals.

SPX +2, NAZ +3.5 and DJIA +26.

Strongest sectors- nat gas, oil service, semis, retail, small caps and defense while gaming, metals, airlines, brokers and reits lag.

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 275 net winners;

SPX - 320 up and 175 down.

NDX- 67 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.37 with up and down volume about equal-

RSI 2 levels near 70 on most major indexes.

Markets just look to be bouncing around and don't really have a good feel for direction- the dollar is again heading lower but gold isn't moving up so nothing clear to me today.

Jeff Saut - who has been great on the rally - getting a tad nervous;

FORBES on US home prices;

TRADER MIKE and his take;

NOON UPDATE

2009-12-03T12:32:00.003-05:00

Equities continue to trade around the flat line with the NAZ and tech leading while metals, energy and financials lag.

NYSE- 270 net green;

NAZ- flat internals;

SPX- 225/265;

NDX- 55 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.31- with up and down volume about even;

VIX- up 1.5% at 21.45 and about 3% under the SMA 10.

Gold is slightly lower for the first time in quite a while,

Equities were higher this morning before the worse than expected ISM services number was printed- A move higher later in the day is probably in the cards as the bears just can't seem to do much to get this market lower.

RSI 2 levels are overbought as most major indexes trade at levels over 70-

THE SWOON

2009-12-02T12:31:00.003-05:00

Equities are generally lower half way through the trading day - but lots of cross currents- kind of surprising that we are lower as the internals are green on the NYSE/NAZ/SPX - problem - the dollar which is up .35% -

Strongest sectors- small caps, airlines, metals, reits, internets and semis while energy, gaming, brokers and large caps lag.

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 400 net winners;

SPX- 270 green;

NDX- 53 green;

DJIA 10 green;

TRIN- 1.41 with up volume slightly better than down.

VIX- down 1% at 21.7 and about 2% below the SMA 10.

WINNERS- AA MET AMZN WY MON AEP STX LRCX WCRX STLD FAST GRMN;

LOSERS- JOYG PCAR ATVI SPLS RYAAY WAG MS WFC BAC DVN UNH BHI;

RSI 2 levels as follows:

SPX 64

DJIA 78

NAZ 82

NDX 78

RUT 84

Market internals not giving much indication today as they have been dead wrong about direction- and the false break out above 1115 on the SPX also provided a good short/sell area for many traders.

The dollar is probably still key and 75 still seems like big resistance for now.

THE FINS

2009-12-01T10:10:00.004-05:00

Equity markets are higher but well off their best levels as the financials lag.

SPX +8, NAZ +20 and the DJIA +75.

Strongest sectors- metals, gaming, emerging markets, semis, homies and trannies while nat gas, junk, banks, internets and brokers lag.

NYSE -1700 net winners;

NAZ- 1100 net winners;

SPX - 430/65

NDX 90 GREEN;

TRIN- .72 - up volume about 6x the down;

VIX- down about 7% at 22.9 and still above the SMA 10.

The dollar is down about .6% and not sure where support is - it was 75 which is now resistance/

GOLD up at $1195 and just fed some DGP ducks - and will hopefully buy back lower.

Financials are definitely lagging and that could be signalling a sell off later today- in the mean time I am sticking with EWA EEM EWZ and TECH- I suspect buyers will come in later and the fins will join the party as beginning of December is probably a good time for equities.

Gartman with some under the radar issues.

Equity appetite waning?

MORNING MUSH

2009-11-30T11:30:00.003-05:00

Markets are lower this morning and the snap back rally anticipated by most traders is taking a bit longer to develop.

SPX -3.5, NAZ -14 and the DJIA -30.

Strongest sectors- Australia, banks, airlines, brokers and reits while nat gas, Latin America, retail, gaming and small caps lag.

NYSE- 800 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

SPX - 139/360;

NDX- 12 GREEN;

TRIN- .89 with down volume about 1.5 the up- seems a bit skewed by BAC C FRE and FNM.

VIX- +3% at 25.45 and about 14% above the SMA 10.

The dollar is moving on up again but may run into some nice resistance at the 75 level.

RSI 2 levels as follows:

SPX 13

NAZ 9

NDX 11

RUT 4

DJIA 12

So definitely some buy signals in the short term from the VIX and the RSI 2 levels - problem is probably not a lot of folks expecting a big selloff and that is what we may get- I added to GDX DGP EWA on Friday and if we continue to go lower I will buy more for TT

FLIP FLOPS

2009-11-24T11:25:00.002-05:00

Equity indexes are flip flopping around this morning as the dollar moves up and down - and is up about .2% as I type at 75.3 while the SPX is down 4.75, NAZ -14 and the DJIA -53.

Strongest sectors- semis, biotech, junk, drugs and retail while gaming, reits, metals, homies and brokers lag.

NYSE-1120 net losers;

NAZ- 1150 net losers;

SPX- 125 GREEN;

NDX- 20 GREEN;

TRIN- 1.19 with down volume 2.5 x the up;

VIX- down a hair at 21 and trading at 7.5% under the SMA 10;

RSI 2 levels on most major indexes near 50.

The photo above- the SPX v the EWA or the Aussie stock market- and it looks like the SPX is catching up - so maybe time to add more EWA v SPX - we will see.

It actually look like its time to take some time away from the machines as the markets probably do very little between now and the weekend - and that sounds pretty pretty good- so probably little posting between now and next week.