7.19.2006

A GIFT


Maybe I am just in a sour mood, but my thought is that this strength today is for selling. I have unloaded some unwanted inventory and if we climb higher I will unload more. My guess is that we have set up a nice day for the shorts and all the happy talk is to be sold. There also appears to be nothing new in Big Ben's testimony and the reason for the rally is most likely the oversold condition.

The VIX/VXO are acting as forecasted, with both down close to 20% and 5% below their 10 day SMA's, so "boom boom"and poof goes the oversold condition. The 2 day RSI on the SPY also goes quickly to an overbought 89 and in an ugly downtrend that is good enough.

Market internals continue strong with 3,700 more winners than losers; best performing sectors include metals, small caps, airlines, brokers, homies, bios, banks and retailers. The worst performing sector is Internet related with YHOO GOOG and EBAY all in the red. Oils are higher but they are lagging the major indexes.

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