THE CLOSE

Markets closed the day mixed with the DJIA closing +41, NAZ -13 and SPX +1.

Strongest sectors oils, internets, utils, metals and telecom while gaming, ags, brokers and homies lagged.

NYSE- 230 net losers;

NAZ- 525 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 55 GREEN;

IBD -50 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 4% at 17.12;

Up volume flat with down with overall light volume;

TRIN- .87;

Markets still over bought even with the big PM sell off and not ready to buy as I think there is a bit more downside here.

Both the SPX and the DJIA climbed above their respective SMA 200 and closed at/near them despite the sell off. The NAZ also closed right at the SMA 200- how now- I suspect not much in either direction for a while but eventually we resolve to the upside.

MIDDAY THOUGHTS

Markets have sold off again just like they did on a strong day last week. The DJIA has rapidly lost 100 of its 150 point gain, the NAZ- down 11 and the SPX up 3 after being higher by 15.

Sectors acting best include internets, utils, trannies and defense while ags, gaming, financials and tech lag.

NYSE- flat internals after being way bullish;

NAZ- 440 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

IBD- 55 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 3% at 17 and still way oversold at 8% under the SMA 10;

Up and down volume approaching equalibrium;

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 97

DJIA 92

NAZ 51

NDX 49

RUT 43

MID 74

Still in over bought territory although big falls on the RUT and the NAZ/NDX over the past few hours.

This fish will wait for better entry points for longs- Not going to put out lots of index shorts as I suspect this sell off won't last all that long.

OPENING UP AGAIN

Markets are trading higher with the DJIA +55, NAZ +12.5 and SPX +7.5.

Leading sectors include trannies, internets, semis, banks and tech while gaming and biotech are in the red.

Key stocks-30/40 green led by AMZN UA BIDU NVDA ICE and V while LVS MSFT CELG AAPL MGM and MON are red.

NYSE- 575 net green;

NAZ- 215 net green;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX-75 GREEN;

IBD- 75 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 1% at 16.67;

Up volume 2.5 x Down volume;

Markets seem to not want to let dippers in as we are moving on up from very over bought levels as most major indexes now above all the major moving average lines.

MORE STRETCH

FWIW- the QQQQ now stretched more than 9% from its up trending SMA 50 and that hasn't happened since the highs in October of 2007- the SPX also way stretched at almost 5% above and that also happened last at the October highs.

So with very high RSI (2) readings, low VIX numbers and over bought breadth ratios the market is probably due for a bit of a breather this week.

Barron's this week with some interesting stuff:

Doug Kass with his short picks including - BRK.A CL K GIS DHR HSIC PDCO FAST;

Dougie anticipating less cosmetic dental surgery, declining profits at insurers and consumers trading down to generic brands as his rationale for shorting the above symbols.

In Ableson's column, T2 Partners with their rationale why BRK.A is a buy-

"The bottom line, to invent a cliché, is that Berkshire Hathaway, by T2's reckoning, is roughly 20% undervalued. Assuming 10% growth in the intrinsic value of the business and a cash buildup of $6,000 per share over the next 12 months, they're looking for total intrinsic value of $178,700 per share, or a 46% premium to today's price of the stock. And peering further out, within two years, based on the same reasonable assumptions of growth and cash additions, the magic number could rise to over $200,000."





Bullish commentary on ABB KFT ORCL CLX;





Links:





BESPOKE on the CNBC oil interview with TRUMP and the % of stocks above the SMA 50;





Dr. Brett on a "real time market sentiment gauge";

THE CLOSE

Markets closed near the highs of the day led by believe or not the energy sector with the OIH closing up 2.7% to $215 and DIG up 5.4% to $122.5. Gold also soared closing up 22 to over $900.

Other strong sectors included steel, ags, emerging markets and utils while banks, brokers, retail and reits lagged.

NYSE/NAZ internals flattish;

NDX- 40 GREEN;

OEX-40 GREEN;

IBD- 75 GREEN;

VIX- flattish at 16.5;

Up and down volume about equal with higher overall volume due to expiration;

Monday probably brings higher prices as folks start to believe the market is finally doing well after being up about 170 SPX points from the bottom.

The DJIA seems to have a bit of a problem breaking through the 13k area as there always seems to be another blow up among the 30- ( C GE MRK etc).

MIDDAY PEAK

Markets are lower but off their worst levels of the day. Leading sectors are metals, steel, ags, oils and utils while banks, retail, gaming and brokers are lagging.

NYSE- 340 net losers;

NAZ- 740 net losers;

NDX-30 GREEN;

OEX-30 GREEN;

IBD-60 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 6% at 17.25;

Down volume 150% of up volume;

TRIN- 1.18;

Crude - under 126;

GOLD- 898;

Not looking for much more action this afternoon as markets probably hover near these levels. Looking to buy dips in the drillers as that has been a winning strategy for some time and I doubt it stops any time soon.

MORNING SHOUT

Markets are trading lower on the heels of higher crude etal. The DJIA -21, NAZ -16 and SPX -2.5.

Strongest sectors include metals, oils, steel, ags, utils and telecom while banks, retail, internets and gaming lag.

Key stocks -14/40 higher led by CELG BG XOM ISRG and CME while TIF ICE MGM KLAC PM are all lower.

NYSE- 350 net losers;

NAZ- 650 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX-35 GREEN;

IBD-65 GREEN;

VIX- higher by almost 5% to a hair over 17;

Down volume about 1.5X the up;

TRIN- 1.14;

A little busy this AM with some short term trading as I have picked up the pace of late. Probably a range bound day for the general markets with oil staying at/near $127- those in that sector should do pretty well. Also note GOLD over $900.

Pre Markets

Futures are trading flat in the pre market but the real story is in commodities where Gold is up about $15 on the heels of $900 at $894 and Crude up $2.6 at/near all time highs at the $127 level.

Not sure how long equity markets can stay at these lofty levels if crude continues on the current path. It was just a few days ago where the market and crude were going in the exact opposite direction on every tick and that relationship may reappear quickly.

Gapping up- AMLN CELG RIMM CLR MPWR ARD DRYS RIG SOHU ATI CPSL NED SUTR AAP UTSI BMC CHIP AZN DNA

Gapping down- ORCL CNQR NEU VMI

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 95

DJIA 87

NAZ 98

NDX 94

RUT 94

MID 99

XLE 72

XLF 80

MSH 98

SMH 99

HHH 98

Linking:

VIX+MORE on why Volatility may have bottomed;

Mike with his daily chart look;

The Quant on the low VIX;

The BUFFETT plate;

The Crude /Pump anomaly;

GS with a new rude forecast;

And how about GHANA;

THE CLOSE

Markets closed at/near the highs and we are back at the 1420 area on the SPX - The DJIA closed +94, NAZ +37 and SPX +15.

Strongest sectors included metals, steel, oil service, homies and gaming while utils defense and drugs lagged.

NYSE- 1280 net winners;

NAZ- 625 net winners;

NDX- 80 GREEN;

OEX- 75 GREEN;

IBD- 78 GREEN;

VIX- down 7.5% at 16.35 and another new low for the year- and 11% under the SMA 10;

Up volume 3.5X Down volume- TRIN .63;

SPX closed a hair below the SMA 200- and at/near the May 2 high- however RSI (2) levels at near 95 on most of the major indexes- loading the boat with the VIX this far stretched to the south and RSI (2) so far stretched to the north - not usually a good strategy. Intermediate term up but waiting for better prices to reboot the longs.

MORNING THOUGHT

Markets are trading near the flat line with the key word being resilience. The DJIA +7, NAZ +7.5 and the SPX +1.75.

Strong sectors include metals, steel, oil service, homies and semis while utils, real estate, financials and trannies lag.

Key stocks- 27/40 green led by TIF UA NVDA POT DE LVSY and NYX while CELG GS BAC MCD RIMM KLAC and C are red.

NYSE/NAZ flattish internals;

NDX- 65 GREEN;

OEX-50 GREEN;

IBD- 70 GREEN;

VIX- down 3% at/near 17- 7% under the SMA 10;

Up volume a bit better than down;

TRIN- .68;

Gold -881;

Crude- 125.5;

Looks like metals / commodities/tech are holding the markets up this morning with the financials lagging- just check GS XLF BKX etc- so another later day sell off would not be surprising as the financials start to drag the rest of the market lower later.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed up after giving up much of the days gains as sellers decided enough was enough as the DJIA closed +65 after being up 165, the SPX +5.5 after being up 17 and the NAZ +1.5 after hitting its head earlier at the SMA 200.

One explanation I read that looked pretty good was this from briefing- "we think the failure of the DOW & SP 500 to put in new afternoon highs made longs a bit skittish as momentum & volume dried up, causing some longs to abandon their positions."

Another reason, VIX over sold and at /near multi month lows, SPX rejected again at the May 6 highs at /near 1420 and the failure of the financials to participate - note WB WFC GS LEH all at/near the flat line to red most of the day.

Strongest sectors- homies, retail, telecom gaming and semis while oils, metals, ags and steel lagged.

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- flat;

NDX- 68 GREEN;

OEX-75 GREEN;

IBD-28 GREEN;

VIX- 17.65 down 2%;

Up volume 1.5X the down - overall light again at almost 1.2B shares traded;

TRIN- .83;

NQ futures continue to sell off after the close and a brief rest by the markets would not come as a surprise after the recent run. Wait for lower RSI (2) levels and a higher VIX to reinitiate longs. And congrats to those who took the morning advice and tightened up the stops.

MORNING REVIEW

Markets are way up on the heels of the better than expected dopey inflation data. Their gas prices are down- mine- not so far down. The DJIA +124, NAZ +26 and SPX +12.5.

Strongest sectors -semis, telecom, retail, trannies and steel while oils, ags, metals, utils and real estate lag.

NYSE- 1150 net winner;

NAZ 730 net winners;

NDX- 85 GREEN;

OEX- 85 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;

Key stocks- WINNERS- UA NVDA KLAC MGM MON SMH LVS DECK RIMM WYNN- LOSERS- CAT AMGN BG;

VIX- down 4% at 17.25- and trading 7% under the SMA 10;

Up volume 4X down;

RSI (2) levels on most major index now at/near 90's with the exception of the DJIA- Big resistance up above at the 1420/1430 levels on the SPX as it was prior resistance and coming to the SMA 200. So heads up if you have been long and strong.