A good day for the bulls as the NDX closed up 2%+ and the RUT not quite 2% but well ahead of the .66% gain for the DJIA and 1% gain for the SPX/
Strongest sectors were emerging markets, trannies, homies, retail, airlines, reits and small caps while oil service, utils, defense and drugs lagged.
NYSE internals +1700;
NAZ internals +1350;
NDX 88 WINNERS;
OEX 80 WINNERS;
IBD 100 87 WINNERS;
BIGGEST GAINERS- RIMM LFC SID MBT VIP TKC MTL BNI NSC TGT WYH AA ROK TYC GOOG MS RIMM SHLD AKAM LAMR RYAAY EXPD AAPL MICC ;
LOSERS- CRNT SYNA SLB PAY NLC CEDC WHQ Y SII BA MDT S HAL CBS ABT BHI SO VZ TLAB NIHD SNDK PTEN EBAY S;
Volatility indexes down about 10% and near the sell levels;
Most 2 day RSI levels on major market indexes near the 90 levels. ETF exceptions include XLE (64), OIH (33), SMH (65). Most other ETF's over bought and due for a correction some time next week.
Markets continue higher in the mid day trade but are getting a bit over bought as evidenced by the VIX/VXO stretch and the 2 day RSI numbers.
The VIX/VXO are both about 8% under the 10 day SMA and I suggest anyone who is long such as those that bought near the financial bottom, trail those stops as I suspect there will be better entry points shortly.
Two day RSI on major market indexes, stocks and ETF's as follows:
MID 94 (leading)
SMH 61 (lagging)
OIH 33 (lagging)
HHH 93 (leading)
The big 110k Job number has gotten the markets a little jiggy as the DJIA is up 70, NAZ +22 and SPX +8. RUT/MID also out performing along with the NAZ.
NYSE internals very bullish with 1530 net gainers;
NAZ also bullish with 1080 net gainers;
Key stocks- GREEN AAPL AMZN BAC BAM BG BIDU C CELG CME COST CROX GE GOOG GS IBB ICE ISRG JPM KLAC MA MGM MO MS MER NYX POT RIMM SMH UA WFC;
Key stocks RED- CELG XOM;
OEX- 82 WINNERS- BIGGEST GREEN- BNI GOOG TYC AXP AA BDK COF NSC ROK GM;
LOSERS- MDT BA BHI EMC SLB DELL HAL EP CMCSA COP BAX;
NDX -75 WINNERS; BIGGEST GREEN -RIMM SHLD ERIC GRMN YHOO LINTA NVDA RYAAY ESRX WFMI SPLS; LOSERS- TLAB PTEN MNST ADSK SNDK LVLT VRSN CELG VRSN EBAY SEPR;
IBD 100- 85 WINNERS - LEADERS-RIMM LFC DRYS SNP TKC WMS BIDU EXM HURN SID;
VIX/VXO lower by 8/9% and heading to oversold territory;
Markets for what ever reason don't want to follow my scenario and pull back before an end of year run to DJIA 15K SPX 1625; I guess still some time before the end of OCT to have a small correction but looks like straight up for now.
Markets continue to trade near the flat line with out much xcitement as folks wait for tomorrows Job number and try to play the fed yet again.
Brokers did not act well while banks, oils, drugs and biotechs trade green.
Key stocks in the GREEN include BAC BAM BIDU CELG COST GE IBB ICE JPM MA MGM POT RIMM WFC;
In the red, AAPL AMZN BG C CME CROX GOOG GS ISRG KLAC MO MS MER NYX SMH UA XOM;
One stock that I added was CNQ, a big Canadian oil company with some pretty smart owners including FAIRX; CNQ makes up 16.5% of the FAIRX assets. Other big owners, FMAGX WWNPX NYVTX VGENX PRNEX and WGRNX.
No doubt we will get more volatility tomorrow as I root for a pullback to the 1510 level on the SPX.
The markets remain quite a snoozefest as the DJIA/SPX/NDX all trade near the flat line and in a very tight range as traders await the September jobs numbers. Haven't heard much about the uptick rule and added volatility of late as the markets have been in a tight range over the last three weeks. SPX 1549/1507 or 42 point range over the last 12 days.
Strong sectors today include emerging markets, drugs, utils, metals, biotech and drugs while homies, brokers, retail and semis lag.
NYSE internals +470;
NAZ internals +360;
NDX 43 WINNERS;
OEX 50 WINNERS;
IBD 100-57 WINNERS;
Key stocks - GREEN- BAC BAM BIDU C CELG COST CROX GE IBB JPM MA MGM POT RIMM WFC;
Key stocks- RED- AAPL AMZN BG CME GOOG GS ICE ISRG KLAC MS MER SMH UA XOM;
BIGGEST WINNERS- LIFC CF MBT VIP AFSI SHLD LVLT LAMR S RIMM GRMN S TYC CBS NXY ETR TWX MRK;
BIGGEST LOSERS- BDK MER CI F COP LEH LTD DRC CRNT SCHN ACM VSEA PKX BCSI CTRP EXM NIHD KLAC NTAP AKAM ESRX LRCX AMAT UAUA;
VOL indexes unchanged;
Up Volume- EVEN with Down Volume;
Large Cap Value over Growth;
Interesting how the banks are all green and the brokers/xchanges are mostly red;
Metals have flipped to green while bios have been very green all day;
Oils were all red near the open and now mixed as crude has quickly traded over $81;
Retail is ugly again after being higher for a few days- KSS TIF UA GES COH BBBY all lower by about 1%;
Tech mainly lower led down by AAPL AKAM AMAT CSCO GOOG KLAC SNDK;
45 minutes into trading and its shaping up to be a rather boring day as all eyes are on tomorrow's job report. The DJIA +7, NAZ -2 and SPX +1 while the RUT/MIDs are about in line with the major indexes.
Strong sectors include financials, utils, drugs, brokers, biotech and reits while oils, homies, gaming and semis lag.
NYSE internals FLAT;
NAZ internals FLAT
NDX 35 WINNERS;
OEX 60 WINNERS;
IBD 100-40 WINNERS;
VOLATILITY INDEXES FLAT;
Key stocks GREEN- BAC BAM C CELG COST CROX GE GS IBB ISRG JPM MA MS POT RIMM WFC;
Key stocks RED- AAPL AMZN BG BIDU CME GOOG ICE MGM MO MER NYX SMH UA XOM;
BIGGEST WINNERS- S ETR RF CBS COF SHLD GRMN LAMR RIMM AKAM PDA CPLA PAY SNHY AIRM FLIR;
BIGGEST LOSERS- DRC CRNT CTRP HDNG VSEA PKX ACM COP BDK F AA SLB ROK CAT LEH NIHD KLAC ESRX LRCX JAVA NTAP WYNN;
Flatline trading with notable strength in the financials including BAC C JPM MA MTB WB WFC GS LM MS TROW. Tech/oils weak again and probably getting close to a very short term bottom.
More predictions- I look for GS to hit 250 level before year end and OIH to top the 200 area in the same time frame. Just more demand for equities and relatively generous valuations.
Markets are lower in the mid afternoon trade with the DJIA lower by 95, NAZ -25 and SPX down by 10. The RUT is down a bit more than the big caps while the MID's are acting a bit better.
Strongest sectors include retail, drugs, biotechs, homies, brokers and internets while gaming, semis, emerging markets, trannies and metals act the worst.
OEX 30 WINNERS;
NDX 35 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 14 WINNERS;
Key stocks in the green- BAC CME COST CROX IBB ISRG JPM MA MS MER NYX WFC;
Key stocks in the red- AAPL AMZN BAM BG BIDU C CELG GE GOOG GS ICE MGM MO POT RIMM SMH UA XOM;
BIGGEST WINNERS- ISRG AFSI MA PCLN LIFC CMG BUD BMY HD GM MRK AEP COF MS MER WMT FISV GENZ DISH LAMR WFMI ROST ERIC SHLD;
BIGGEST LOSERS- WYNN NVDA AMAT LRCX SNDK GRMN KLAC JOYG AA ATI NSM NSC INTC COP TXN BNI AVP AES CRNT RIO OFC SNP VSEA CF CMED MR CHL TBSI;
VIX/VXO hardly moving as the VIX is almost 19 and above the 10 day SMA- no fear here;
Two day RSI numbers on major indexes- not oversold just yet with:
So not down to the "10" levels which is the general "time to dip" area- but a lot better prices than the indexes have been as they have gone straight up since Ben cut the rates a few weeks ago. I think we get better prices before long as the 20 day SMA on the SPX is near 1505 and they may be a nice place to buy. Again, I expect a nice rally into the end of year as IMVHO stocks are a much better buy than gold/real estate/bonds. And I think I am not the only one who feels that way.
Markets open lower on the heels of a semi downgrade and over bought conditions with the DJIA -53, NAZ -16 and SPX -7. The RUT/MIDs, which have been the outperformers of late are down a hair more than the big indexes.
Strong sectors include metals, biotechs, homies and drugs while gaming (WYNN/LVS -7%), semis, oils, emerging markets, reits and tech lead the downside.
NYSE internals -1300;
NAZ internals -750;
OEX 15 WINNERS;
NDX 30 WINNERS;
IBD 100 15 WINNERS;
Volatility indexes little changed and now trading near the 10 day SMA's;
Key stocks in the GREEN- CME IBB ISRG JPM NYX WFC; RED- AAPL AMZN BAM BG BIDU C CELG COST CROX GE GS ICE MA MGM MO MS MER POT RIMM SMH UA XOM;
BIGGEST WINNERS- CTXS FISV ERIC AMLN SHLD GRMN CDWC AKAM DISH SPLS MRK BUD SLE AEP WMT TYC WB WFC SLT TKC CEDC TRAK AFSI GLNG PCLN CMTL;
BIGGEST LOSERS- MR LFC SNP RIO SYNA CHL CRNT CTRP CMED INTC LTD COP CVX XOM HPQ S WY WYNN SNDK NVDA JOYG LRCX AMAT BRCM LVLT;
Markets a bit extended and a continuation of the sell off thru most of October would not surprise me. Still expecting a seasonally strong NOV/DEC.
An uneventful day as Big Cap/Tech sells off while Small/Mids trade in the green.
Strongest sectors- homies, reits, brokers, gaming emerging markets and retail while metals, oils, internets and defense lag.
NYSE internals- FLAT
NAZ internals -FLAT
OEX -35 WINNERS;
NDX -35 WINNERS;
GREEN STOCKS- AAPL BAC BAM BIDU C GOOG GS ICE ISRG JPM LVS MA MGM MO MS MER;
RED STOCKS- AMZN CELG CME COST CROX GE IBB NYX POT RIMM UA WFC XOM;
BIG WINNERS- LAMR SHLD SYMC GOOG AKAM GENZ MXIM MS F EMC BAC BUD COF LEH GM BIDU LFC OMCL AIRM HMSY GLNG BCSI ACM FMCN VDSI;
BIG LOSERS- GRMN CNH BBL DWSN SII BW LWAY BHP SID MT COP XOM CVX CSC NXY UTX RTN WY BIIB RIMM VMED NIHD GILD SIAL QCOM MICC PAYX;
VIX up 5% and nearing 19;
Brokers and banks act well yet again as they continue their march back to where they were before the market cracked in July. Again, looking for more of a pullback before pulling the trigger as I expect a nice run up in the final two months of the year.
And congrats to the NY Knicks, a loss before the season begins.
Markets open flat with the RUT/MID again being the out performers while the big cap DJIA and tech heavy NAZ/NDX lag.
Strongest sectors include homies (despite the crummy sales numbers), gaming (WYNN/LVS/MGM soaring yet again), brokers, reits, banks, emerging markets, retail and trannies while metals, oils, internets and tech lag.
NYSE internals +500
NAZ internals +390
OEX 40 GREEEN;
NDX 35 GREEN;
IBD 100- 50 GREEN;
Key Green stocks- AAPL BAC BAM BG BIDU BSC GOOG GS IBB ICE ISRG JPM LVS MA MGM MO MS MER POT TROW UA WFC; RED- AMZN CELG CME COST CROX GE RIMM XOM NMX;
BIG WINNERS- BIDU LFC PKX AIRM EXM OMCL F EMC BAC COF MS RF AVP MER LAMR WYNN RYAAY SYMC FLEX SHLD;
BIG LOSERS- BIIB GRMN VMED MICC DELL NIHD NVDA RIMM NXY COP CSC XOM CVX EP SLB BHI BBL FLIR CHN LAYN LWAY BHP;
VIX up a whole 1.5%
Up and Down volume about equal.
I will stick with my turnaround Tuesday scenario and look to buy the dip when it looks appropriate- My feeling is lower the next few days as lots of folks have lots of gains to protect off the August lows.
Markets closed the day at/near the highs led by small caps, value stocks and homies. The DJIA +185 NAZ +35 and SPX +19. The RUT was the biggest winner of the major indexes higher by 2.1%.
Strongest sectors included homies, brokers, small caps, banks, gaming, metals, airlines and defense while consumers and biotechs lagged.
NYSE internals +1700
NAZ internals +1250
IBD 100-86 WINNERS;
OEX -90 WINNERS;
NDX -80 WINNERS;
Key green stocks- AAPL AMZN BAC BAM BG C CELG CME COST GE GOOG GS IBB ICE ISRG JPM LVS MA MGM MO MS MER NYX POT UA WFC XOM; RED- BIDU CROX RIMM DNA AMGN;
BIGGEST WINNERS- LRCX WYNN INFY NVDA EXPE ERTS GENZ AMAT KLAC FLEX MER CSC AES LEH COF EK GS WFC MCD ATI LWAY GLNG EXM CYNO DSX MTB FLIR ARGN MTW TRAK;
285 New Highs on the NYSE and 29 New Lows;
Up volume about 4x Down Volume;
Maria with a great interview with some " shrewd strategist" who suggests that financials are starting to look attractive. Hmmmm, the IAI etf of brokers/exchanges hit its low on August 16, at $43.88 and now trades at $53+. How bout some CNBC with some nerve to challenge some of these analysts on dumb comments. And it was only a few days ago that Donnie Trump told Erin that oil should trade $40/$50 saying the only reason crude is $80 is because the producers keep the price high. Huh? And Don, why do almost all your publicly traded companies eventually go bankrupt?
Anyhow, turnaround Tuesday tomorrow would not surprise me as we are way over bought and some of the better traders may decide to take some inventory off the sheets.
Markets seem to be on a straight up trajectory and closing at/near the highs of the day would not be much of a surprise. The strongest index continues to be the RUT, up nearly 2% after lagging for all of 2007. Reversion to the mean?
Strongest sectors include emerging markets, homies, brokers, semis, small caps, banks, gaming, metals and reits. Laggards include oils, biotech and consumers.
NYSE internals +1555;
NAZ internals +1150;
NDX 85 WINNERS;
OEX 90 WINNERS;
Key stocks trading higher include AAPL AMZN BAC BAM C CELG CME COST GE GOOG GS IBB ICE ISRG JPM LVS MA MGM MO MS MER NYX POT RIMM UA WFC XOM;
Red include BG BIDU CROX SNY DNA and thats about it as this is a broad based rally with the DJIA near 14,050.
BIGGEST WINNERS- MER CSC LEH CI USB ATI RF COF AES C LWAY GLNG CYNO CRNT DSX EXM HMSY FLIR PKX LAYN LRCX WYNN ERTS INFY KLAC NVDA MNST XLNX CTAS LINTA;
BIGGEST LOSERS- GRMN ESRX MXIM MRVL LAMR AMLN CTXS NTAP ADSK WFMI EDU DWSN NVT FTI BIDU WHQ WMS HDNG SNDA PCLN F GM COP CBS LTD AA BDK CPB BUD T CCU CSCO;
MGM up 3+ and hopefully playing catch up to WYNN/LVS as those two stocks have been monsters over the last few months. Brokers also acting very well as GS is up over $220 after dipping under the $160 mark not to long ago. I believe that was when Pisani mentioned the fabu trade of long tech and short financials. Hopefully they took that one off a while ago. CME BSC MER also acting very well in the group and MER is way down on the year and there may be a reversion to the mean trade with that equity also.
Two day RSI numbers on major indexes:
Markets are due for a rest as they have a had a nice rally but that is probably tomorrows business as markets that are strong all day tend to close at/near the highs.
Markets open higher and the DJIA up 95, only a few points away from the old closing high in July. The RUT is the best performing major mkt index, higher by 1.15% compared to .58% on the SPX.
Strongest sectors include homies, emerging markets, semis, utils, brokers, defense, small caps and reits while integrated oils and consumers are lagging.
NYSE internals +1525;
NAZ internals +915
NDX 80 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 80+WINNERS;
Key stocks in the green include AMZN BAM BG C CELG CME COST GE GOOG GS IBB ICE ISRG JM LVS MA MGM MO MS MER NYX POT UA WFC XOM; RED stocks include AAPL BIDU CROX RIMM KSS LTD GES CVS COH AMGN DNA;
BIGGEST WINNERS- LWAY EXM CRNT GPOR DSX HMSY PKX TBSI ARGN FSTR AES MER HD ATI CSC GOOG EXC USB AEP CI JOYG CTSH KLAC SYMC XLNX MNST ERTS GENZ;
BIGGEST LOSERS- GRMN ESRX RIMM ADBE QCOM MRVL SNDK ADSK CTXS JNPR COP LTD AA AMGN T TWX CCU BAC CPB HET BUD CVX DWSN BIDU NVT EDU PAY FTI NLC PCLN;
VIX lower by 2.5%;
Markets back to over bought territory on the morning ramp as new beginning of the month money shows to give the markets a boost. I suspect a pullback in the next few days as the DJIA 14K probably gets sold.
Some interesting stats for the year to date and even over the last three months. Check it out:
SPX + 7.6% YTD +1.6% Last 3 months;
OEX +8.2% YTD +3.1% Last 3 months;
DJIA +11.5% YTD +3.6% Last 3 months;
NDX +19% YTD +8.1% Last 3 months;
COMPQ +11.8% YTD +3.8% Last 3 months;
RUT +2.3% YTD -3.4% Last 3 months;
MID +10% YTD -1.2% Last 3 months;
Large Cap Value +5.4% YTD FLAT Last 3 months;
Large Cap Growth +12% YTD +6% Last 3 months;
Small Cap Value -4.6% YTD -7.5% Last 3 months;
Small Cap Growth +16.1% YTD +1.5% Last 3 months;
OIH +37.3% YTD +9.7% Last 3 months;
XLE +27.6% YTD +8.4% Last 3 months;
VLO +31.3% YTD -9% Last 3 months;
SMH +13.8% YTD FLAT Last 3 months;
HHH +24.7% YTD +8.8% Last 3 months;
AAPL +81% YTD +26% Last 3 months;
INTC +27.7% YTD +8.9% Last 3 months;
IBB +6.7% YTD +6.2% Last 3 months;
AMGN -17.2% YTD +2.3% Last 3 months;
$DFX +24.3% YTD +10.1% Last 3 months;
ITA +30.3% YTD +11% Last 3 months;
EEM +30.5% YTD +13.2% Last 3 months;
EFA +12.8% YTD +2.3% Last 3 months;
EWA +35.3% YTD +11.7% Last 3 months;
GE +11.3% YTD +8.2% Last 3 months
XAL -24.8% YTD -12% Last 3 months;
HGX -32.8% YTD -24.8% Last 3 months;
GS +8.7% YTD FLAT Last 3 months;
CME +15.2% YTD +9.9% Last 3 months;
ICE +40.8% YTD +2.7% Last 3 months;
MER -23.4% YTD -14.7% Last 3 months;
$HUI +16.2% YTD +19.3% Last 3 months;
SSRI +21.3% YTD +8.5% Last 3 months;
PAAS +14.8% YTD +9.8% Last 3 months;
MGM +56% YTD +8.4% Last 3 months;
WYNN +68% YTD +76% Last 3 months;
LVS +49.1% YTD +74.7% Last 3 months;
MSFT -1.3% YTD FLAT Last 3 months;
GOOG +23.2% YTD +8.5% Last 3 months;