3.14.2009

THE BARRONS


Barrons with some interesting articles- a bullish call on MS/GS as they appear to be benefiting from less competition- EPS estimates for GS at $8.29 and MS at $2.48 for 2009 and PE's at /near 10- looks good if the numbers come as expected. Beware- both have already had nice run ups in 2009 after a disastrous 2008.


Bullish on AVP as value is enhanced by a growing worldwide sales force, cost cutting and a nice hoard of cash.


Bullish on DTV as the NFL Sunday ticket continues to drive subs- Barrons says DTV could eventually be taken out by LINTA or NWS.


Another article on the best brokers - broken down by - What Kind of trader are you:


Long Term Investor- FIDO, OptionsXpress, Schwab and Tradeking;


Frequent Traders- ThinkorSwim, MBTrading, Tradestation and Interactive Brokers;


Options Traders- ThinkorSwim, Tradestation and Interactive Brokers;


I use tradestation and usually trade several times an hour and find it to be excellent.


3.13.2009

THE LINKFEST


Markets opened weak and closed strong yesterday - generally the sign of the smart money buying - we will see - of course after the fact - if this is the real deal.


Early Saturday Morning Linkfest:



BEST and WORST of the RALLY;


VIX +MORE on the Banks;


DR. BRETT on an Open Mind;


The QUANT- on Real Strength;


TEN busted Myths;


China - Worry;


US Debt losing favor?;


EARMARKS- Ubetcha;


The 2nd City;


Three ETF's that avoided lows;


The Inevitable Surge;


How to lose 65% in FOUR days;


Its all in the Intrinsic;


What will cause the Recovery?;


BAC - right back at it;


Cutbacks at the WAPO;


Coulter- not so good;



And the WINNER was?;


And the WINNER was (2)?;


And the WINNER was (3)?;


And the WINNER was (4)?;


Another big loser from MADOFF;


And the ANSWER is?


TIMMY likes it;


FINALLY - the ONE and ONLY;


CLOSING CHOPPY


There it was - yet another choppy day after the big up day of yesterday - SPX +5.6 and NAZ +5.


Strong sectors- gaming, drugs, biotech, brokers and homies while real estate, energy, banks and internets lagged.


NYSE- 860 net winners;

NAZ- 390 net winners;

NDX /OEX- 115 GREEN between them;


VIX- flattish at 42.2;


TRIN- 1.07 while up volume was almost double the down;


Gold - flat $929;


Crude- down $1.25 at $45.8;


RSI (2) levels:


SPX 96

DJIA 96

NDX 94

COMPQ 95

RUT 94

XLF 98

DRG 92

RLX 97

MSH 87

SMH 97

HHH 71


Yeah- they are all over bought - and it will be interesting to see if the weekend readers decide to buy on Monday. Not holding trading positions over night and trying again with the day trading on Monday - winners today on DUG and losers on DUG and SRS. CHOP YOU UP.

THEOPEN


Markets moving on up again although not the same velocity as the last few days - but up is up for now- SPX +4 and NAZ +2.


Strong sectors- gaming, fins, drugs, homies and retail while real estates, tech, energy and internets lag.


NYSE- 875 net winners;

NAZ- 500 net winners;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;


VIX - flat at 41;


Gold - higher by $3 at $931 while crude is up 1% at $47.5;


Looking for choppy day and looks like it is delivering and looking for reentry in DUG which is now working- GS also looks good as it probably gets pinned at $100 before long.


RSI (2) levels near 95 and VIX also way down relatively-

FRIDAY UPDATE


If anyone is interested in what Dennis Gartman is doing - here is his latest:


Long - infrastructure stocks, Canadian bank stocks, equities of Canada, Brazil and or Australia, GE AA CHK BG SU FDO L GS DOW X AA IPSU SFD ANDE ACI;


Short- SPX via SDS (actually long), equities of Germany and France, BRK.B;


Long English speaking currencies and short the YEN;


Clearly he is long the commodity industry against short positions in equities in general and he is long L against BRK.B - Buffet says on CNBC - Buffet to Gartman- Bring it on (CNBC interview with Warren - shorts are the eventual buyers).


All the above FWIW-

3.12.2009

FRIDAY AM LINKFEST



Futures are ramping up yet again and just maybe the price for the SPX in the 666 area was a bit silly. SP 500 futs up another 9 and about 8 above fair value- NDX futs +10.5- will be interesting to see if this gap higher gets faded.


Early morning links:


SMACKDOWN:




UPSIDE and Bullish;




Now Market Manipulation;




FIB QUEEN with the FIBS;




QUANT- CBI drops to 3;




November lows up ahead;





The Weather Report;



CNBC whither or shine?;

ADAM with a blast from the past;





THE CLOSE


Kass is king as the markets have rocketed off his bottom call from a few weeks ago as the SPX closed the day +29 and the NAZ +54- DOPEY DJIA +240. And of course the days that are strong close at/near the highs- greatest trading strategy of all.


NYSE- 2560 net winners;

NAZ- 1767 net winners;

NDX- 95 GREEN;

OEX- 95 GREEN;


VIX -down 5.5% at/near 41.3 and 13% below the SMA 10;


RSI (2) levels:


SPX 95

NAZ 94

NDX 93

RUT 93


So markets clearly short term over bought - and don't forget that we are still in an ugly bear markets - so lets wait and see - and if the bull is back there will be plenty of time for every one to make plenty of money. Oh- since it is always Obama's fault when the market tanks - I am sure all the traders will give him credit for the rally. Sure.

MIDDAY MADNESS


Markets have been flat lining for the last few hours and seems like lots of resistance up here near the 735 level on the SPX.


RSI (2) levels above 90 on the major indexes so this rally may run out of steam before too long but looking to trade long for the day.


NYSE- 1600 net winners;

NAZ- 1100 net winners;

NDX- 85 GREEN;

OEX- 75 GREEN;


VIX - only down 4% at/near 42 and about 12% under the SMA 10;


Gold +$14;


Crude +3% and energy stocks lagging;


Strongest sectors- biotechs, banks and drugs;


Weakest sectors- trannies, energy, utils and internets;


Looking to buy pullbacks today and BGU QLD on top of the list.

THE OPEN


Markets trading near the flat line with leaders metals, financials, banks, biotech and drugs while shipping, trannies, internets and defense lags.


NYSE/NAZ - internals have flipped to a hair worse than flat;

NDX/OEX- both a bit better than 50 green;


VIX- flat at 43.4;


Up volume a hair better than down;


Looks like folks want to buy dips and its as simple as that for now- LONG SSO and LOOKING TOBUY PULLBACKS-

MORNING LINKS


Futures have ramped up over the last hour after the 8:30 econ news and are now trading only a bit below fair value- gold flat and crude +3.25%.


Morning links:


M2M on GE;


More on M2M;


What's another $30B:


Another 30% jump in Feb;


VIX+MORE on lower VIX;


Another Surge;




And WHO would have thought this back in the summer?;


3.11.2009

CLOSING CHOP


Markets chopped around most of the day and closed near the unchanged line on the SPX and up 1% on the NAZ - the DOPEY DJIA +3 points.


Strong sectors- metals, brokers, banks, internets and semis- laggards - real estate, shipping, oils, defense and utils.


NYSE- 545 net green;

NAZ- flat internals;


VIX - down 2% near 43.5;


Not much here as the bulls defended the unchanged line while the bears got it right after the opening gap up- Tomorrow - no idea but going in LONG SRS-


Market over bought with RSI (2) levels near 85 - plus I am not a big believer that all kinds of things changed with Kass's call or Jamie Dimon's speach - lets watch the action the rest of the week first.

MIDDAY CHOP


The chop continues as days following big trend days tend to be choppy- and this is perfect example so far.


SPX +.5, NAZ +10 and DOPEY DJIA -4.


Strong areas- metals, brokers, tech and trannies while shipping, energy, real estate and drugs lag.


NYSE- 400 net winners;

NAZ- flat internals;

NDX - 65 GREEN;

OEX - 45 GREEN;


VIX- down 2% at 43.35;


Gold +$12 at $910;


A lower close from here is probably where we go - but not making any big bets yet- Markets a bit over sold and VIX a little lower than 90% of the SMA.

THE OPEN


Markets are higher but off their best levels as some folks look to take some profits despite the calls of the bottom by many of the smart pundits (oxymoron?).


Strong sectors- financials, brokers, metals, gaming and trannies while ags, drugs, energy and real estate lag.


NYSE- 1500 net green;

NAZ- 1230 net green;

NDX - 75 GREEN;

OEX-70 GREEN;


VIX - down 3.7% at 42.75;


TRIN- .74 and up volume about 5x the down;


Gold barely higher at $900;


Crude down $1.25;


No feel yet for where these markets are going but a choppy day after this ramp up wouldn't surprise me as we get a bit over bought with RSI (2) levels at/near 90- and how long before the shorting starts again?

THE REAL CRAMER


Futures up again this morning with the SPX FUTS trading about 10 points over fair value- Jim Cramer now turning bullish after telling us what to buy at DJIA 5320- lets see how he arrived at his new bullish take after the market ramped 40 + SPX points:


3-9-2009- WHAT TO BUY IN THE DOW (8.00 AM) (when it hits 5,320);


3-9-2009 - LET IT BOUNCE-(10.36PM) (not sure what he was saying in this article);


3-9-2009- NO RALLY WITHOUT A REAL BANK PLAN (11.56PM)( no rally without a plan from Geithner) ;


3-9-2009- TECH's SLAUGHTER LEADS US LOWER (1.34PM)( we have no idea when it will end);


3-9-2009- NO SILVER LINING- (3.52PM)( I ask myself as I started my show on Friday night, Am I too negative? And the answer is No!);


3-10-2009 -(1.59 PM) THE BEARS OVERREACH- ( Did Roubini and Whitney overstep- The people who have been most right take the bridge too far. These two did it - And we get our rally);


3-10-2009-(2.57PM) HERE COMES THE RALLY- ( I'm going with Doug Kass. He says this rally is different. I say the facts are different. Over and over again I have said I will get more positive when something positive happens and when stocks are low enough that they factor in the worst case.) ;


3-10-2009 - THE UPSIDE IS REAL -(4.10PM) ( analysts who were thinking of joining the sell cavalcade of the PG HPQ WMT analysts will think again. THOSE GUY LOOK REAL STUPID. );


3-10-2009 - (4.57) I know a lot of people doubted Doug Kass but can I say that you can have ten lifetime subscriptions if you bought yesterday's sell-off and Doug's conviction never waivered.


3-10-2009 -(4.57PM) PIECES ARE FALLING INTO PLACE- ( a market that's much higher seems like a given);


Please tell me that someone can actually write this stuff and then tell us Jon Stewart is the comedian.

3.10.2009

THE WINNERS


Interesting to check out today's biggest winners on the major indexes:


DJIA:


C +43%

BAC +36%

JPM +23%

GE +21%

AXP +16.5%


NDX:


WYNN +30%

SNDK +20%

FLEX +19%

STLD +12.5%

RIMM +11%


OEX:


C +43%

BAC +37%

MS +29%

JPM +23%

WFC +21%


LOSERS:


EXC ABT PM LVLT SIRI VMED HOLX NIHD EXPD LINTA LAMR


ETF losers;


SKF -27%

FAZ -40%

SRS -27%

TWM -13%

SDS -13%


Advancing issues on the NYSE 2932 V 236 losers;

Advancing issues on the NAZ 2364 V 460 losers;


SPX RSI (2) 85;


VIX % under the SMA 10- about 8%;


RUT extensions from the FIB QUEEN;


PIVOT Bands from BZB;


BESPOKE on performance by the hour;


TICKERSENSE with a look at the channel;


COULTER/MAHER highlights - I was there - and there was better stuff than discussed here;


I suspect we get some pretty good sell signals if the market closes higher again tomorrow- ugly ugly downtrend - and the trend traders probably licking their chops at higher prices - to short.

THE MIGHTY CLOSE


Markets melted up just about all day with leadership from gaming, financials, brokers, homies and real estate while metals, ags, bonds and utils lagged.


NYSE- 2685 net winners;

NAZ- 1900 net winners;

NDX/OEX- almost all components green;


VIX- lower by 11% and trading about 9% under the SMA 10;


Volume pretty pretty good with almost all to the upside;


TRIN- .48;


RSI (2) levels at near 85 on most major indexes;


Tomorrow will be interesting as markets break away and start heading into resistance at SPX 725 tomorrow - we shall see - day trading the name of game for now -

SELL SIGNALS?


Markets maintaining the midday mojo - as SPX +36 and NAZ +75 yikes - a good day for the bulls - lets see the close?


Strong areas- gaming, financials, brokers, reits and energy- laggards- metals, ags, bonds and utils.


NYSE- 2580 net green;

NAZ- 1855 net green;

NDX/OEX- 95+ GREEN on each;


VIX- down 11% at 44;


Almost all volume is up;


Crude sinking a bit and now in the red at 46.88;


Next area of resistance per Carter at 715 but per the fish at 723/724 (recent highs)-


RSI (2) levels at near 80 on major indexes and the VIX about 9% below the SMA 10 - sell signals starting to appear but probably not today's business.

OPENING LIFT OFF


Markets are off and running higher on the heels of good news out of C and higher European markets - SPX +25 and NAZ +47.


Strong sectors- gaming, financials, homies, shipping and brokers-- laggards- metals, ags, utils and drugs;


NYSE- 2400 net winners;

NAZ- 1765 net winners;

NDX- 95+ GREEN;

OEX- 95+ GREEN;

DJIA 30 GREEN;


VIX - down 9% at 45.25;


Almost all volume is up;


Gold - down $20;


Tough to find entry points as markets are heading straight up - tough places to be FAZ SRS - no positions but heaven help those who are long-


RSI (2) levels quickly above 70- and I will be watching these levels closely.

Haines and Kass calling the bottom- we shall see-

TURNAROUND TUESDAY


Its Tuesday so of course markets set to open higher with the ES futures up by 14 and about 12 above fair value- European markets higher by 1.5 to 2%.


Gold lower by .8% and Crude +2%- dollar down EURO up.


On the link front:


VIX+MORE watching the Baltic Dry Index;


The excited Pandit;


Whitney on the next CRUNCH;


SAUT still bullish;


BESPOKE with more CDS prices;


Lets see how long it takes for the sellers to fade the gap.

3.09.2009

THE USUAL CLOSE


Markets closed near the lows yet again as a late date push fizzled out - the SPX -7 and the NAZ 25.


Strongest sectors- banks, real estate and energy while biotech, telecom, metals, and utils lagged.


NYSE/NAZ 2500 net losers;


NDX - 15 GREEN;

OEX - 30 GREEN;


VIX- flat at 49.7;


Crude- holding up the energy stocks with a gain of $1.63 at $47.15;


Another awful day for equities as this market never seems to let any one sell on an up day - rare to find one-


RSI (2) levels under 15 on most indexes;
I guess Doug kass now officially wrong as the market didn't bottom three days from last Monday- tough to be the accurate - but why try?


Tomorrow the bulls can root for turnaround Tuesday - and Cramer - picking stocks for when the DJIA hits the 5,300 level- thanks.

MIDDAY SWOON


Markets back down after an early move higher after lower futures- SPX -4, NAZ -17 so not so good as I type.


Strong sectors- banks, energy, retail and shipping;


NYSE- 1,000 net losers;

NAZ- 780 net losers;

NDX- 20 GREEN;

OEX- 33 GREEN;


VIX- a bit higher at 49.6;


Crude +2$ at 46.6;


Gold- lower by $20 at $919;


Probably lots of disappointed folks as this market trends lower in the early afternoon - Kass probably number one on the list-
FIBQUEEN with an interesting twitpic;
Adam on the state of the VIX;
Graham on his earmarks;
Another Joe switch;
10 Newspapers to watch;
And TWITTER self promotion;

RSI (2) levels at near 15 on major indexes - looking for some chop this afternoon but probably very little in the way of afternoon trading.

THE OPEN


Market indexes have flipped to green and have been steadily moving higher after the futures were way down- HOWEVER- internals not so good.


Strong sectors- banks, energy, gaming, shipping, internets and retail while metals, bonds and utils lag.


NYSE- 245 net green;

NAZ- 400 net green;

OEX - 70 GREEN;

NDX- 90 GREEN;


VIX- down 1.5% at 48.55;


TRIN- .34 up volume 3x the down;


Gold lower by $13 at $927.


The real story - Crude - higher by 6% at $48+;


Market internals on OEX/NDX very very good while on NYSE/NAZ not so great and barely above break even. Anyhow, looking to go long and the etf's I want today is DIG/QLD.


3.08.2009

SUNDAY MORNING LINKFEST


Stocks are cheap - stocks are still too expensive - no one knows - you know why Mr. Barrons- because know one knows the E - the P yeah but the E - just a bit difficult to ascertain in this environment - just a bit- and now for the links:


Odds at 40%- as defined;


More losses ahead- AIG;


The winners were -AIG;


The usual from Gasparino;


Blinder - (SHS grad) - not so fast with the nationalization;






VIX+MORE and the GOOD BANKS;




DR. BRETT- more on Pivot based targets;


The WBC matters- to who?;




The Quant on bottoming with light volume;


VIX tricks;


Bullish on metals?;


Dancing with the stars;


The highest since 1972- mortgage delinquencies;


Real estate markets are working;