5.30.2008

THE MAD MONEY


Markets closed mixed the the DJIA -17, NAZ +14 and the SPX +1.


Strongest sectors included solar, metals, steel, tech, oil service and defense while financials, homies, real estate and biotech were weak.


NYSE/NAZ- flattish internals;


NDX- 60 WINNERS;

OEX- 50 WINNERS;

IBD-80 WINNERS;


VIX- down slightly;


TRIN- 1.04 - Up volume slightly better than down;


Financials were weak all day and that gave a nice profit in SKF and DIG gave a nice profit as it moved nicely higher in the afternoon as fundies probably wanted to show those securities in their EOM reports. Not Cramer type Mad Money- but not bad.


Speaking of MAD MONEY- Jimmy's short time favorite KRY crossed the briefing wires this morning and the price was 79 cents- Jimmy recommended it in May of 2006 near the $6 level and I had this to say about the speculative hunk of junk then. Just some weekend amusement.

MIDDAY LULL


Markets continue to chop around with the price of crude as the NDX/NAZ leads while small caps lag. The DJIA +2, NAZ +12 and SPX +3.


Strong sectors include solar, steel, oil service, tech, ags and metals while homies, banks, biotech and gaming lags.


NYSE/NAZ - flat internals;

NDX- 55 GREEN;

OEX- 53 GREEN;

IBD- 85 GREEN;


VIX- down 2.3% at 17.7;


TRIN- .92 with up slightly better than down volume;


Crude- $127 and higher by 45 cents;


Gold- $890 and higher by $13;


$$$$$- looks to be heading lower again at 72.85;


Crude continues to be the story as it oscillates between green and red- and equities follow it in inverse fashion.


Still long SKF and added a long in DIG- as I suspect the funds may want to mark up those equities into the EOM.

THE OPEN


Markets open mixed with the DJIA -7, NAZ +9 and SPX +.5.


Strongest sectors solar, metals, ags, steel, tech and oil service while banks, gaming, real estate and biotech lag.


Key stocks- generally higher led by NVDA MON TIF MA V and POT while MER WYNN ICE BAC DECK MCD and LVS lag.


NYSE- 180 net losers;

NAZ- 240 net losers;

NDX-50 GREEN;

OEX-55 GREEN;

IBD-65 GREEN;


VIX- flat at 18;


TRIN .76 Up volume slightly better than down;


NDX leading the way higher on the heels of good news from DELL and MRVL- however note the recent high in the QQQQ at the $50.5 level and not far from there now.


SPX - flattish with energy higher and financials lower- with all the big banks trading red cept for C which is flat.


I thought we would get some jig today with the EOM marker upperrers coming in but so far doesn't look like it and have bought some SKF as when these financials start out weak they generally end weaker.

MORNING NUMBERS


Back from a few days of running around and taking care of some personal business - so without further nonsense lets get to the numbers:


RSI (2) before the open:


SPX 80

DJIA 77

MID 83

RUT 89

NAZ 89

NDX 93


XLE 25

OIH 35


BKX 61

XBD 84

GS 72

MER 65

MS 86

For the first five months of the year (almost) the winning index of course is not the always loved big caps but the MID CAPS which are actually up 2.1% on the year compared to the SPX down 4.8% and the DJIA -4.7%- I wonder why with all the overseas exposure - how about:


GE -17% ytd;

MSFT -20% ytd;

PG -11% ytd;

JNJ FLAT;

CSCO -2%;

All those companies with all that exposure to emerging markets and those little mid caps supposedly with only domestic exposure GREEN on the year- and even the RUT is out performing the BIG CAPS down 2.7% for the year. The NAZ/NDX about in line with the big caps but have outperformed over the past few months.


5.27.2008

BACK ON FRIDAY


THE CLOSE


Equities up crude down the name of the game today as oil lost more than $4 and now trades near the $128.5 level. Not sure how much further from here but if it turns up - think Thursday (inventory numbers) the markets probably head lower.


Anyhow, the DJIA closed up 67, NAZ +36.5 and the SPX +9.5.


Sector strength found in all the logical areas- trannies, semis, brokers, tech, homies, real estate and retail while oils, metals, steel and ags lagged.


NYSE- 825 net winners;

NAZ- 860 net winners;

NDX-88 GREEN;

OEX- 75 GREEN;

IBD- 50 GREEN;


VIX- closes near the flat line and at the SMA 10;


TRIN- 1.14;


Up volume about 1.5X down - with very light volume again;


RSI (2) levels near the 50 level on most major indexes cept for the NAZ/NDX which are getting a bit ahead of themselves at/near the 70/80 levels.


Bottom line- keep a chart of crude near by as that direction should dictate where the equity markets go for now- and some talk about a top as chatter continues for rationalization of why $140 is an appropriate level. The chart looks a bit parabolic and a pullback to the 61.8 level is probably going to happen ($115 area).

NOON LOOK


A little troubling as the markets can't rally with crude down 2%+ so any bounce back in oil could be very troubling for equities.


And what is happening with the shippers- check the charts on DSX TBSI DRYS- all crushed and down about 20/30% from the highs of about 10 days ago.


European markets - FTSE down .3%, DAX +.1% and CAC -.6%;


VIX- higher by 4.5% and trading almost 14% above the SMA 10- but I am not ready to load the boat yet;


Down volume a hair more than up;


TRIN- 1.53;


RSI (2) levels;


SPX- 9


OEX -9


DJIA 6


NAZ 45


QQQQ 55


RUT 45


MID 23


GS -0


XBD 22

BKX 17

Note GS hovering at/near the $171 level and half way from the recent high of $203 and the low of $140- yes the 50% retracement.

THE OPEN


Markets are higher as crude is down over $3 to $129.5 and gold down $21 to $905.


The DJIA +70, NAZ +26 and the SPX +7.5 while the RUT is +1.35% and the MID +.75%.


Strongest sectors include retail, real estate, trannies, gaming, semis and homies while metals, ags, oils, steel and emerging markets lag.


Key stocks generally higher led by DECK TIF KLAC AMZN BIDU WYNN MER C and GOOG while POT MON BG ICE RIMM XOM PM and GS are lower.


NYSE- 1,000 net winners;

NAZ- 1,100 net winners;

NDX- 85 GREEN;

OEX-80 GREEN;

IBD- 40 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 2% after the 3 day weekend;


Up volume about 2X the down;


TRIN- 1.16;


Despite the trashing of crude I note the OIH has turned green as I type so maybe those oil service stocks are cheap.


Note the QQQQ held the 200 DMA near the $48 level which was also the 50% retracement area. Interesting action the past few days as it always kept it in the rear view on a close basis.


SPX not so lucky although it has held the 50 DMA.


I suspect today's rally gets sold especially if crude gets its jig back and would anyone be surprised if the dippers came in for the sub $130 oil?