4.05.2007

HIGHER CLOSE


Markets closed the day higher with a break above the 1,440 level and that area may provide some support for now. Fly in the ointment, oversold volatility indexes as they trade between 5 and 8% below their respective 10 day SMA's. The 2 day RSI's also at/above the 95 level on SPX/DJIA/NDX so churning or a little pull back here would not be surprising.

Strong sectors included biotechs, airlines, homies, drugs, internets, trannies and oils. Laggards included metals, real estate and some gaming. Notable absent from the rising market was GS which all of a sudden has lost its market leading status.

Market internals were fairly strong most of the day with the NYSE closing with 700 more green than red while the NAZ had about 300 more green than red.

OEX/SPX/NDX all at least 3/2 ups to downs.

Big winners included NVDA CELG VRTX PTEN EXPE BEAS AMGN JOYG MFW BLUD GROW AFT and AFAM.

Losers included CUTR CYNO LHCG RVSN UUU DXPE DWSN TZOO RK MU MNST TIN UNM and SWY.

Enjoy the long weekend and look for choppy trading next week.

BREAK OUT


Markets are trading a bit higher as many stops were apparently placed above the 1,440 level on the SPX. Lots of activity as that number was taken out.

And for anyone interested, the DJIA is about 250 points away from the all time high of 12,795; while the SPX recent high was 1,462, about 20 points above.

Strong sectors include biotech (amgn), airlines, drugs, homies, oils, internets, large cap growth and retail while laggards are metals, defense and real estate.

Market internals getting better as the NYSE is 820 net green and the NAZ is 300 net green.

The three big indexes NDX/OEX/SPX all about 3/2 green to red.

Winning stocks include MFW BLUD GROW AFAM CLB AVT and BTJ while losers include CUTR LHCG CYNO CTCM RVSN HRT and HOLX.

Trading Market up with another article on market timing and this time with the TRIN. Simple strategy, buy the market when the TRIN has closed above 1 for three consecutive days and when it is in uptrend (above 200 day SMA). Sell when it closes above the 5 day SMA. I like to put the strategies together and buy when the 2 day RSI VIX stretch and the overbought TRIN all line up. That is not the case today as we get closer to the old highs.

MIXED TO UP


A mixed trade for the markets as traders await the long three day weekend and probably expect little in the way of volatility.

Strong sectors include airlines, internets, silver stocks, metals, semis, biotechs, oils, and real estate while brokers, banks, large cap value and defense issues lag.

Key stocks generally mixed with RIMM ICE BOT in the green while CME GS AAPL and GOOG are red.

Big cap winners include NSM AMGN TXN KFT TWX LTD NSC NVDA LINTA MICC and CELG.

Big cap losers, CTSH MNST ATVI QCOM CHRW NTAP AAPL DD VZ ROK S and F.

Market internals are stronger than the indexes with a net 500 green on the combined NAZ/NYSE markets.

The OEX/SPX complex is about evenly split between winners and losers while the NDX is about 3/2 green.

Volatility indexes also unchanged with the VIX/VXO combo trading near the 13 levels.

All of othe oil stocks on my screens have turned green and it looks like these stocks have further to go as the summer driving/hurricane season approaches. Buy the dips when they occur and the EWA is up again and heading near the $27 level.

4.04.2007

EWA AWAY


Markets closed near their highs but could not get much upside action as the 1,440 number on the SPX continues to be major resistance.

Metals, silver stocks, semis, drugs and biotechs led this day while real estate, homies, airlines, utilities and small cap value trailed. Note also that the small caps and midcaps underperformed the bigger brethren for the first time in quite a while.

Market internals were fairly flat all day with the NYSE a bit better than the NAZ and the NDX with better internals than either the SPX or OEX.

Most of the banks and brokers were red through out the day and gave the signal that today would not provide much upside action.

Of course the EWA made another new high today and continues to be one of the top performing ETF's anywhere with a year to date gain of almost 14%. I suggest that anyone who doesn't have exposure - buy the next dip.

HALF WAY


Markets continue to trade mixed in a tight range with the NAZ the best performer on the heels of a jig in tech land and specifically MSFT.

Strong sectors include metals, silver stocks, semis, software, biotech, gaming, drugs, large cap growth and internets. Weak links - real estate, banks and retail.

Key stocks mixed with the brokers the definition of mixed while tech acts well with MSFT and the Semis acting very well.

Market internals continue mixed with the NYSE slightly positive and NAZ slightly negative.

The NDX internals act best with about 65/35 up to down while the OEX/SPX show neutral internals.

Big stock winners include MSFT SEPR VRTX LRCX SNDK MRVL MO TXN NSM and AMGN.

Big losers include LTD IP DOW MEDI EP DIS COP MNST NIHD MEDI GRMN and SPLS.

Volatility indexes- about flat.

The 1440 resistance on the SPX continues to be a tough area for the markets to penetrate and I expect it will continue that way for the balance of today and tomorrow. However, we are only about 270 points from the Feb DJIA highs and about 22 from the SPX 6 year highs. I suspect we get there later in the month as subprime problems get forgotten and earnings come in "better than expected."

FLAT OPEN


Markets open/trade mixed on the heels of a "the gift" from Iran as they promise to release the British hostages. Crude is trading about 80 cents lower on the news so anyone expecting the price to rapidly fall back into the 50's on the news is probably at/near disappointment.

Strong sectors include metals, semis, airlines, drugs and biotechs. Weak links include oils, gaming, homies, real estate and small cap value.

Key stocks generally lower as all the brokers are red; xchanges generally green; tech green with AAPL GOOG INTC and HHH lower.

Market internals lower with a net 1,000 red between the NYSE and NAZ.

The OEX/SPX are about 3/2 red while the NDX is evenly split between winners and losers.

Strong stocks include CHKP VRTX XMSR LRCX MRVL CELG MSFT TXN XRX F and BDK.

Losers include DOW IP LTD COP EP DIS MEDI MNST GRMN NIHD LAMR ROST CTSH and CHRW.

For what its worth, days after big trend days are generally choppy and that is what I expect for today's trade. Again, we have 1,440 as resistance and fear of missing below; so again probably choppy trading.

REJECTED


As suspected, the SPX market made it up to the 1,440 level yesterday before being rejected and closing about 2 points below at 1438. That 1,440 level was the recent post 2/27 high and also a key Fib retracement level.

All of the major market indexes are now in overbought territory with 2 day RSI readings at/near 95. Volatility indexes are not confirming the sell signal yet as they trade a bit below the 10 day SMA line but not near the magic 10% number.

The OIH also revisited a recently rejected level at 150 and was sent packing maybe signifying a time to take some money off the table.

And congratulations to Johnny Bench for moving up to 7th on the leaderboard after recently sitting in the cellar. Maybe the cheerleaders at Squawk Box are finally working their MOJO.

4.03.2007

STEADY GOING


Markets continue to trade at/near their highs with the DJIA +119, NAZ +30 and SPX +13.

Strong sectors include airlines, gaming, internets, brokers, homies, aussies, retail, metals, tech and biotech. Laggards, no longer in the oil patch as both XLE and OIH have flipped to green and just about all other sectors in the green with utilities lagging.

Key stocks all green with the exception of ICE and BOT. GOOG /MER /XBD all very strong.

Strong stocks include UAUA CTSH LINTA INFY VRTX RIMM AKAM CSC TWX CSCO HD AA and IP.

Weakest links include AES KFT WMB BMY PEP XMSR SIRI PTEN LOGI SYMC CHKP and SUNW.

Market internals continue near the same level with net 1,600 green on the NYSE and net 1,000 green on the NAZ.

OEX/SPX/NDX all with about 9 up to each 1 down.

Volatilities indexes have sunk more than 10% and now trade about 5% below their respective 10 day SMA's.

Seems like just about everyone is now watching the 1,440 level on the SPX and it is only two points away as I type. So just a heads up as it was the prior high and a key Fib retracement level. Traders will probably look to take profits as trading for the next two days will probably be slow.

THE OPEN


As the futures forecasted, the markets opened higher and the SPX is trading at 1,431 and about 9 points below my short term target area.

Strong sectors include gaming, airlines, internets, aussies, retail, trannies, banks, brokers and biotechs. Lagging are semis, oils and metals.

Key stocks are generally higher with MER and GOOG leading while ICE and BOT are lower.

Market internals are very strong with the NYSE +1,600 and the NAZ +1,150.

The internals on the three majore indexes SPX/NDX/OEX are all about 4/1 green to red.

In addition to MER and GOOG, strong stocks include TGT HD DIS IP TWX UAUA LINTA WYNN DISCA and INFY.

Weak ones include XMSR MRVL PTEN SYMC SNDK LRCX MICC BHI COP WMB SLB KFT XOM and AES.

Volatility indexes back under the 10 day SMA as they sink about 7%.

I was contemplating buying more metals on the lower gold price but they aren't dropping and I suspect a better trade will be more EWA on the next dip in that space. Oh and the 2 day RSI on the SPX as I type, 90.

TECHNICALS-SPX



Markets are set to open higher on the heels of anticipated reduced mid east tensions/lower oil prices/higher overseas prices. The SPX 500 should open about 10 points below its recent highs in the 1,440 area which also is the 76% Fib retracement area. That level should also get the 2 day RSI into short term overbought levels near the 90 area; so it may be a level to take some inventory off the table or a warning to trail your stops.

The volatility indexes are sitting about 5% above their 10 day SMA levels and may deflate quickly and head to oversold levels on the morning pop.

Just a word to the wise to not let profits escape as I anticipate the recent high at the 1,440 level to be tough to bust past.

4.02.2007

FLIP FLOP


Markets bounced around most of the day but closed mixed with the NAZ/NDX being the underperformer.

The DJIA closed +25, NAZ FLAT and SPX +3.

Strong sectors included metals, oils, gaming, utilities, real estate, retail and small cap growth. Weak links were banks, homies, airlines, brokers and semis.

Market internals were also mixed with NYSE stocks net 775 green and NAZ net 160 red.

The OEX/NDX were both about 50/50 between winners and losers while the SPX was about 3/2 green to red.

Volatility indexes mixed with the VXO down 4% and VIX flat.

No big deal in the markets today as there were spurts higher and lower but generally flattish. My stocks were pretty good with SSRI BAM SLG CTO and the oil patch all acting very well. Again, I don't expect much the rest of the week as holidays and vacations will no doubt dominate.

Oh and Arod, one error, one home run and one other hard hit single so off to an erratic start as he is now just 35 away from 500 home runs.

MID DAY SNOOZER


Markets continue mixed at mid day as the DJIA is flat, NDX -6 and SPX +1.

Strongest sectors include utilities, oils, real estate, metals, tech, drugs and small cap growth. Weakest include banks, airlines, homies, semis, brokers and trannies.

Key stocks are mixed with the brokers mainly lower but improving; exchanges higher, tech and internets mixed while banks are all lower on the MTB news.

Strong stocks include MICC NIHD BEAS CELG JNPR MO MRK KO XOM ETR EXC AEP and F.

Weak stocks include KFT WB MEDI RF FDX COF NSM LEH CTSH XMSR NTAP MXIM and MRVL.

The NYSE shows about 500 net stocks higher while the NAZ has about 400 net lower.

The SPX/OEX internals are flat while the NDX is lagging considerably with about 3/1 downs to ups.

Volatility indexes basically unchanged and the trading looks kind of uninspiring especially with the short week/holiday/ Spring break. So maybe AROD will provide some excitement today since its doubtful the markets will.

OPENING FLIP


Markets opened higher but have since flipped lower on the heels of a lower than expected ISM numbers.

Strongest sectors include gaming, tech, oils, drugs, utilities, real estate and small cap growth. Worst groups include banks, brokers, metals, trannies and large cap value.

Strong stocks include BWLD GROW HOLX MICC MIDD MGM MRK GM FISV NIHD LRCX and WYNN.

Weakest include CHKP SUNW ERIC CTSH INFY UAUA KFT COF FDX RF WM LEH C AXP and MS.

Key stocks are generally lower with the banks and financials getting hit hard. MTB is hit on the heels of some crummey news on the Alt A front and of course no mention that BRK owns a big chunk (6%) and it has been a great stock over many years.

Volatility indexes up another 4% and the NAZ now getting hit harder - short QID.

I mentioned last week that I increased my short hedges as I expected some weakness over the next few weeks. Obviously not sure how long or how much lower.