THE GANG

Barron's bullish on TEX and FHN and The Round table back in action.

Love the round table group. Most participants are expecting a crummy economy but are tepidly bullish on stocks. My favorite quote comes from Abbey Joseph Cohen:

"Unlike others at this table, I have to publish price targets. It is part of my day job. We've forecast the S&P 500 will be at 1675 at the end of 2008, and the Dow at 14,750. In '07 we hit our price targets for the year in June. Of course, the market performed poorly thereafter."

All I want to know is do you think that makes you right or wrong on your 2007 prediction?

Other notable quotes:

Bill Gross-

"So, I'm the first of the grim reapers. I'll start with the economy. It's important to distinguish between the U.S. economy and the global economy; the U.S. economy is much worse, and is nearing an inflection point.

We're looking at slow growth, and maybe, in a quarter or two, negative growth. Risk markets are at risk, and without the ability to pump up consumption through asset inflation, we're going to have a difficult time in 2008 and beyond. For years the economy's growth has been predicated on asset inflation -- stocks in the 1990s, then housing. There are no large, classic asset categories left to inflate, and as some assets deflate -- namely housing -- credit contracts. Economic growth will be below zero or mildly above it for a long time, and nothing like what we've grown used to in the past 10 to 15 years. Get used to anemic growth or a mild recession in terms of the economy, job creation and wealth creation. It's not a favorable forecast."

Marc Faber:

"Equity prices have increased in dollar terms, but in euros the S&P 500 is down about 45% from its peak in 2000 and the Nasdaq is down 60%. Measured in gold, the markets have done horribly and the economy has been in a recession for a long time.

I'm not bullish about U.S. stocks, but everything is so bad on a global basis that they might do better on a relative basis. That doesn't mean they go up, but the U.S. market might go down less than China, India, Vietnam and some of the other markets that are in cuckoo land. These markets have gone up because people believe in decoupling. Economically we could see a decoupling, whereby the U.S. is in a recession and China still grows by 5% or 10%."

Scott Black:

"The market will rally this year, but the first half will be sluggish. Real GDP will grow 1.5%, with monetary stimulus and maybe fiscal stimulus. The economy will do better in the second half, and equity investors will start looking to '09 earnings. Many credit problems will be behind us. The market won't be a runaway freight train, but it's conceivable the S&P 500 will return 5% to 10%, with dividends reinvested.

Small- and mid-cap value stocks peaked June 4 and are down 21%-22% since. It has been a true bear market. I don't know if these stocks will outperform large-caps this year, but they'll move in lockstep. Also, for the first time in a long time, you can buy good-quality large-caps for 15, 16, 17 times earnings -- companies with sustainable growth and high returns on equity."

Mario Gabelli:

"As for the market, it will be up around 5% by year end. Last year saw $4.5 trillion of mergers and acquisitions, up from about $3.7 trillion the year before. This year, in addition to strategic buyers, sovereign wealth funds and SPACs, or special-purpose acquisition companies, LBOs will come back in the second half as bridge loans are working through the pipeline. The deals in this cycle will be a lot smarter, and more will be financed. M&A, spinoffs and liquidations all will contribute to that 5%-plus gain."

Art Samberg:

"Investors are capitulating now. The market is terrible again today. [The Dow had a rough session Monday, but closed up 27 points, to 12,827.] The market could decline 10% or 15% quickly from year-end levels. You'll be able to discount the end of the mortgage mess quickly; it will be clear as soon as some of the large banks start taking additional write-offs. The first half is going to be awful. Can the second half recover enough so that the market is down 5% for the year? Stocks will fall 10%-15% in the first half, and then rally 10%."

Fred Hickey:

"It will be one hell of a recession.

Only home mortgages have blown up. There are problems in auto loans, student loans, leveraged-buyout and junk-bond loans. Wherever people were lending, they were lending stupidly. Delinquencies have risen across the board, but defaults haven't come yet. That process lies ahead.

I'm having a hard time believing this. You all say we're having a recession, yet the stock market will be up.

The only way we might avoid a bear market is if the Fed keeps printing money. That's why you ought to have a big position in gold, which should do even better this year."


Turning to politics, it looks like intrade is predicting the Republican candidate based on expected primary defeats for Romney in Michigan, Rudy in FL and Huck in all of the above. The process of elimination leaves the last man standing to be the guy with the worst speech of the night last Tuesday and Republican right nightmare John McCain.

Dems, still hard to predict with Hillary and Obama still expected to split primaries in Florida, Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina. The winner probably to be declared on Super Tuesday February 5.

A BULL SOMEWHERE

Some guy on TV always says "there is always a bull market somewhere and I promise to find it for you." Well so far 2008 proving to be a difficult year for anyone who likes reversion to the mean trading. So far, pretty straight down but its early. Anyhow, thought this was pretty interesting for the Bull Market of 2008:

HUI +16.1%

GLD +7.4%

SLV +9.4%

GDX +14.4%

IBB+2.3%

AMGN +2.5%

DRG +4.7%

PFE +5.7%

JNJ+1.8%

MRK+4.2%

SGP +4.1%

XLE -4.7%
OIH -4.9%

XTO +6.7%

MER +1.9%

The Bad:

NDX-8.3%

COMPQ -8%

SPX -4.6%

DJIA -5%

SMALL VALUE -8.8%

SMALL GROWTH -7.1%

LARGE VALUE -3.3%

LARGE GROWTH -5.8%

THE UGLY:

SMH -13.1%

MSH -10.1%

AAPL -12.8%

BIDU -15.5%

CME -10%

ICE -10.1%

MGM -13.2%

LVS-18.2%

HGX -13.5%

RLX -10.6%

TRAN-8.4%

Foreign ETF's:

EWA -4%

EFA-4.3%

EWH -1.2%

FXI FLAT

EEB-1.7%

EWZ -1.8%

The brokers (-7.7%) and banks (-5.1%), supposedly the authors of this fiasco, not so horrible in light of the tech wreck. Emerging markets also holding fairly well. Next week, another 5 days of trading so we will see what it brings.

UGLY IS UGLY

Markets closed way down despite the perky brokers as the DJIA was down 246, NAZ -49 and the SPX -19.

Strongest sectors- metals, ags, financials, real estate, banks and brokers- laggards were tech, airlines, retail, telecom, emerging markets, semis and gaming.

NAZ/NYSE- 2,200 net losers;

OEX/NDX about 20 green on each;

IBD 100- 18 WINNERS;

The good news is the SPX/DJIA /NDX all closed above their recent lows and Monday is the beginning of another week. Markets can't keep up this activity for they will be trading near zero by late spring. Will try again Monday and hopefully a better week for this smelly fish.

BIG ARMS

Dick Arms at realmoney.com with a bullish article this morning as he sees a significant bounce coming. He has been pretty bearish in his recent writings and he has been spot on. Here is what he says today:

Thursday's reaction to the leaked contents of the Bernanke speech ... and then the second thoughts ... and then the third thoughts, etc., all point out the extremely high levels of apprehension at this time.

But underlying it is the factor we looked at two days ago: the most oversold market condition in many months, as evidenced by the Arms Index moving averages. It looked then as though we were on the brink of a substantial rally. Wednesday and Thursday's strong advance may have been the start of that advance, but it looks as though there is still a great deal more ahead.
The bounce on Wednesday came right at the August lows, as can be seen on the chart below. Moreover, it was right at the ascending trendline that goes back to 2003, and defines the bull market we have been in since then.

Thursday's early weakness tested the lows of the day before and set the stage for the Bernanke rally. But it is not easy to turn a market that has been as weak as we have seen in the last 10 sessions. It may take a while longer to get things going, but it looks as though there is a more substantial rally in the cards over the coming days, and perhaps weeks. If you are an aggressive market participant and are not yet long, some buying in here would seem to make sense.

Yeah, I agree;

OPENING VOLATILITY

The volatility continues as as the CFC deal becomes final and many of those folks who bought yesterday, well not so happy. The DJIA -150, NAZ -25 and SPX -13- RUT and MID's right in line with the large cap indexes.

Strongest sectors- metals and MOO (ags) with homies, retail, emerging markets, semis and real estate the laggards.

Key stocks- generally lower with CELG BG MER POT CAT GS IBB higher and TIF MCD MA GRMN UA RIMM WYNN ICE INTC leading lower;

NYSE- 1400 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

NDX- 15 WINNERS;

OEX-10 WINNERS;

IBD 100-20 WINNERS;

WINNERS- DSX CF HRBN ABAX RRC HOLX GME WFMI CELG CEPH GENZ HOLX SNDK GILD BHI DELL MER CAT UPS BAX COP AMGN;

LOSERS- TIF MCD AXP TGT COF GM BK ROK S F JNPR CTSH LOGI INFY SHLD BRCM GRMN HANS MA CCH EDU ATW CHL FSTR BHP GSOL CMG;

VIX- hardly moving higher on the big move lower - ah the weekend;

TRIN- 1.21 and Down Volume 4x Up Volume;

Some bright spots this morning in the gloom and doom- check the brokers- GS MER BSC ETFC LEH MS all trading near the unchanged line despite the big drop on the major indexes. Could signal a later turnaround.

So here we go again as the volatility picks up and recent solid performers like MCD INTC VMW etc get hit hard and my suspicion continues to be that the recent lows will hold and folks buying near these levels will be well rewarded in the intermediate term.

CLOSING NUMBERS

Markets close higher but well off their best levels off the day despite Maria's insistance that they "accelerated" into the close. The DJIA +118 after being higher by over 200, NAZ +14 and the SPX +11. The NDX was the laggard, only higher by .25%, weighed down by AAPL BIDU CSCO GOOG INTC and MSFT.

Strongest sectors- airlines, brokers, trannies, financials, metals and internets while oils, utils, drugs, semis and ags lagged.

NYSE/NAZ internals - almost 1,700 net winners;

NDX -55 WINNERS;

OEX-70 WINNERS;

IBD 100-55 WINNERS;

WINNERS- JST BOOM ABAX FCSX GIGM BPHX BLK PDA DLB WFR UPS LEH S GM WFC WMT BNI NYX UAUA TLAB LOGI YHOO RYAAY SBUX FWLT VRTX;

VIX- lower by about 3% and trading a hair above the 10 SMA;

Heavy volume again with Up exceeding Down by about 3 to 1;

Markets were encouraged today by Big Ben and Ken Lewis at BAC, who is apparently ready to buy CFC, which was up over 50% on the news. Hopefully it happens cause this market will be mighty disappointed if it doesn't happen fairly soon.

Technically, the SPX closed at 1,420 which was a support level at the back end of November. Next stop hopefully near the 1,450 level with the recent lows acting as support- as I said buyers lower and sellers higher.

Finally, a hint of a positive divergence on the SPX as the price made a lower low and MACD made a higher low. Its small but its there.

AFTERNOON TRADE

Markets are bouncing around in spite of the good news out of Big Ben with some good and some bad on the screens. The good, the financials such as BAC C CFC JPM MTB USB WB WFC GS BSC LEH LM MER are all trading up while the bad is big cap tech such as AAPL BIDU CSCO GOOG INTC MSFT and VMW are all trading lower.

Strongest sectors- airlines, trannies, brokers, metals and homies while oils, ags, semis utils and drugs are lower.

MARKET INTERNALS- NYSE/NAZ FLAT;

NDX- 40 WINNERS;

OEX -45 WINNERS;

IBD -40 WINNERS;

Key stocks- generally lower- Up- ICE GRMN CELG MER NYX RIMM GS - Down- POT BIDU NVDA BG WYNN LVS MSFT INTC;

My expectations are for the markets to churn at/near these levels as for now it doesn't appear to want to go lower than the recent lows. Upside also seems limited as lots of sellers appear to be around wanting to sell any rips. So probably range bound for now.

MORNING TRADE

Markets seem to be bouncing off the morning gap lower and the action for now is different from the lower goes lower trade that we have seen of late. The DJIA -23 after being down 100, SPX -5 and the NAZ -14.

Strong sectors include airlines, retail, brokers, trannies and metals while oil, ags, semis and banks lag.

NYSE- 550 net losers;

NAZ- 600 net losers;

NDX-30 WINNERS;

OEX-40 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 25 WINNERS;

Key stocks- generally lower with GRMN ICE TIF IBB PG RIMM CELG NYX GS MCD higher while MTW POT ISRG NVDA KLAC BIDU MA VMW GOOG lower;

Winners- UAUA LOGI YHOO RYAAY SHLD UPS WMT TGT BNI VZ BOOM CMED FCSX GRMN GMCR GIGM;

Losers- GME STP DSX GSOL ATW AGU CNH COF XRX SLB AXP F BAX HAL AAPL GOOG EXPE TEVA SNDK INFY ESRX NVDA JNPR;

Among the biggest losers this morning are OIH and MOO (getting plowed) the agriculture ETF which includes MOS POT MON BG CNH and DE -the Oil service ETF- OIH is now trading at/near the 50 SMA so it may be worth a shot here;

Technically, the lows from August 16 continue to hold and the market looks like it wants to go higher as it is way oversold and at significant areas of support.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed at the highs of the day after the DJIA touched its August low at the 12,500 level. Best major index was the NDX up 2% plus with large cap growth and the OEX each moving up +1.5%.

Strong sectors- China, emerging markets, financials, gaming, defense and banks while internets, telecom, airlines and semis were the laggards.

Big gainers included DECK VMW NVDA MER LVS AAPL NYX MGM CELG WYNN DD BAX GD GOOG HPQ MS AMGN CPLA CHL SLT WFR HUM DWSN;

NYSE/NAZ internals- 350 more winners than losers;

NDX - 54 WINNERS;

OEX -65 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 45 WINNERS;

So if your not happy with the way your trades/investments are going so far in 2008- how do you think some of these folks feel:

Eddie Lampert watching his investment vehicle SHLD slip more than 50% (193 to 93) from April 2007 through today (includes a major purchase of C at/near $53);

BX birthday boy Steve Schwartzman, watched his investment fall from IPO territory of $37 to a recent $17.5, all in about 6 months;

Billionaire Joe Lewis loading the boat on BSC shares over the last 6months at/near $100 now watching it hove near $70;

Sam Zell sells his commercial real estate holdings last year at/near the highs to some of the "smartest people" on the street, BX (see above);

Another smart guy, Ken Lewis at BAC, buying a big slug of CFC last August at/near $18- now trading - $4.9;

Probably time for these guys to act before more investors get hurt.

BREAK IN

FWIW- the DJIA has touched the August 16 lows near the 12,500 level- could be a bounce area as a double bottom is now DONE.

LOWER TRADE

It continues to rain on investors as most stocks/major indexes are lower after starting a little higher. The Average stock is getting rocked as market internals are way red despite pinkish major market indexes.

Strongest sectors include China, drugs, biotech, emerging markets, oils, defense and large cap growth- worst include airlines, internets, homies, retail, real estate and banks.

Key stocks- down- up are VMW CELG MGM NVDA MSFT KO LVS and DECK- down are GRMN AMZN BIDU ISRG MTW POT MA and ICE;

NYSE- 850 net losers;

NAZ-1,175 net losers;

NDX-35 WINNERS;

OEX-40 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 25 WINNERS;

VIX- FLAT;

Down Volume 2.5X Up Volume;

TRIN 1.49;

Congrats to the team over at the Daily Options Report for finally deconstructing Cramer.

Mentioned this morning that the internals/TRIN etc were not bullish despite the higher indexes.

Not that sure we are going to go straight down into the close so a little rally would not be surprising here.

August lows also coming into play on the SPX at 1370;

The revshark at real money sees a rally coming thinking there is capitulation- not so sure but on my toes watching:

"This action feels like it is getting close to the capitulation stages. That simply means that shareholders no longer care about fundamentals or technicals or the Fed or anything else. They just want out and they want out now.

I believe emotions are extreme enough that we are getting very close to a snap-back rally, and I would not be at all surprised to see a strong intraday reversal today. I'm not placing any big bets on that, but I am ready to move fast, should it look like it is developing."

DRILL BITS

Markets have opened higher as drugs, gaming, emerging markets, large cap growth and biotechs lead the way. Lagging are homies, telecom, airlines, reits, internets and retail.

Key stocks- higher led by VMW MGM NVDA LVS BG NYX WYNN DECK INTC ICE and DECK- laggards- GRMN MTW AMZN TIF BIDU MCD ISRG MA CAT UA MA and BAC;

Market internals are flat on the NYSE/NAZ;

NDX- 70 WINNERS;

OEX- 65 WINNERS;

IBD 100-60 WINNERS;

IBD 20- 13 of 20 higher;

WINNERS- APOL QCOM NVDA NTAP MICC VRSN DD EMC NYX CCU DELL HPQ CPLA WFR CHL GTI HDB NOV GILD CF MBT;

LOSERS- GRMN BHPX TISI IRIS FCSX CNH CYBS NGS EDU ATI ROK WY S T CBS EX LVLT VMED LAMR SHLD AMZN JOYG AMZN;

VIX - lower by 2.5% and trading about 10% above the 10 SMA;

Up volume less than Down volume- not so bullish;

TRIN 1.15- not so bullish;

CFC lower on the heels of news that the delinquency rate has risen to almost 7%. The stock is not reacting well yet again as it loses hat size status and probably drops to drill bit levels.

The major big cap indexes are acting far better than the average stock this morning and not real sure how that will play out for the rest of the day- (who drags who higher or lower).

Technically, the next areas to watch on the SPX is 1,370 on the way down (August 16 lows) and 1,420 level higher (76.4 FIB).

The NDX is bouncing from the 76.4 FIB and the area above to watch is 1972 and below is 1,806, the August 16 lows).

MGM jumping this morning on news of a tender from Dubai World for more shares. I am not tendering mine.

THE CLOSE

Not much to say except that this FISH has stunk it up so far in 2008- BUT its only 5 trading days old-

Tomorrow another day - and has any one said the markets are oversold?

AFTERNOON TRADE

Markets have flipped back to green led by the NDX after the CFC bankruptcy denial- leading the markets higher are metals, drugs, emerging markets, biotech, semis, tech and oil service while airlines, brokers, homies and banks are lagging.

Key stocks- generally higher led by NVDA VMW BIDU ICE RIMM MA WYNN MO BG and AAPL- lower are ISRG GRMN C MS BAC MTW MER MSFT LVS GS and CME;

NDX/OEX internals equal at 65/35 green to red;

NYSE- 650 net green;

NAZ - 265 net green;

IBD 100-7/30;

VIX -lower by 4.5%;

10 year Bond- 3.861%

WINNERS- CMED TISI HRBN ABAX DSX DWSN VIVO DLB BIDU KWK GME MRK EP EMC ABT AMGN EXC BAX TXN BMY TGT LEAP SBUX NVDA VRTX HANS BRCM JOYG AMGN;

LOSERS- UAUA ISRG RYAAY CHRW GRMN AKAM BIIB MRVL PCAR AA RF CCU HPQ C UTX MS USB BAC BOOM CYBS TDG KOP SLT DNR EDU WFR;

Also flying high are EWZ- Brazil; EWA-Australia; EEB- BRIC;

I still think the lows on the QQQQ from yesterday will hold in the intermediate term and will look to buy any pullbacks with a stop near those levels. Also note how the laughing bears generally show near the bottom.

MORNING TRADE

Everything is right with the world again as oil, metals and equities are trading higher while the yield on the 10 year is up to 3.88%.





Bob Doll, the trillion $$$ man at BLK saying that U.S. equities will reach record highs in 2008 as P/E ratios improve. My guess is he will be correct.





Strongest sectors this morning- metals- as the HUI is up almost 6%, drugs, china, emerging markets, reits, real estate, oils, utils, tech and biotech while airlines, homies, insurance, banks and defense lag.





NYSE- 1,600 net winners;


NAZ- 1,115 net winners;


NDX- 70/30


OEX-80/20


IBD 100-85/15





WINNERS- TISI ABB VIP FSTR MICC BIDU GME HURN BTJ MA LEAP SBUX MNST NVDA JOYG WYNN LVLT CEPH BAX EP EMC BMY MRK SLB ATI NYX ETR;





LOSERS- CCU RF ROK AA BA UTX MSFT HIG JPM USB AXP MS ISRG EDU ESRX CNH CEDC KP FCSX TDG GMCR CF UAUA RYAAY ISRG PCAR ESRX CHRW BIIB;





VIX- lower by 4%;





Up volume almost 4X Down volume;

The changing of the guard at BGC not being gretted well as it trades lower along with some of the brokers.

Lots of volatility as there are quick bursts up and down on the major indexes. I do however believe that yesterdays lows on the NDX (QQQQ) are probably the bottom for this intermediate period.

CLOSING VOLATILITY

Volatility the name of the markets today as the major indexes were all over the board. The best performing indexes surprisingly were the RUT and the SPX. Small Cap value the best performing sub sector closed higher by .9%.

Strongest areas- utils, china, drugs, biotech, telecom, insurance and airlines while metals, oils, tech and brokers were the worst.

Real carnage in the recent momentum group including VMW NVDA DECK BIDU ICE RIMM LVS GRMN GOOG EBAY and AAPL.

Market internals were almost flat on the NYSE/NAZ while the weak NDX had 45 winners and the stronger OEX had 63 stocks in the green.

IBD 100 stocks took it on the chin with 30 stocks closing in the green - leaders were VIVO IRIS HDB ENS DLB ESRX EDU and CEDC- losers- HRBN STP CTRP DSX SNCR GIGM WFR BUCY and BTJ;

VIX closed lower by 1.4% to 23.6;

Up and Down volume about equal on a heavy day of almost 1.7B shares;

Brokers continue to act poorly with GS and BSC being the worst of the group. Not sure what is ailing GS but it seems to have lust its recent luster.

RSI (2) readings still way oversold at general major index readings near 0;

A rally is coming and selling or shorting at these levels makes no sense to this fish.

NOON BOUNCE

Markets have turned higher after perhaps putting in an intermediate low this morning. Check the hammer formation on the NDX and how similar that was to the intermediate low put in on August 16.

Small cap value leading the way and higher by 1.4% and the general RUT up .8%. Other standout sectors include drugs, airlines, china, utils, biotech and telecom- lower are oil service, metals, oils, brokers, gaming and tech.

AAPL BIDU EBAY FWLT GOOG NVDA RIMM VMW all still lower but way off the worst levels.

NYSE- 500 net winners;

NAZ- FLAT;

NDX-60 WINNERS;

OEX-70 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 30 WINNERS;

Short term targets- $49.75 on QQQQ (50% retracement) and 1,450 on SPX (61.8 FIB).

Also note the positive divergence on the QQQQ as MACD is making a higher low while QQQQ made a short term lower low.

THE OPEN

Markets have started the day higher but tough to see where they are going from here as lots of cross currents are rippling around the tape.

The DJIA is acting well with 23 of the 30 components in the green led by MO VZ HD and KO while the NDX and SPX are not doing nearly as well.

Tech, internets, brokers and oils are lagging while drugs, utils, ags, emerging markets and biotechs are leading.

Key stocks- a mixed bag with CELG BG UA MO AAPL KO TIF higher and VMW MA RIMM LVS GS BIDU AMZN NYX all weak. Not sure what to make of the recent GS weakness but for whatever reason, it continues.

Market internals:

NDX- 50 GREEN;

OEX-65 GREEN;

IBD 100- 50 GREEN;

WINNERS- HDB IRIS DLB PFWD VIVO MR MON FMCN FCSX SLT NIHD CELG CTSH BIIB GILD CTAS ESRX INTU F MO ABT BAX VZ AES COF AEP MDT EXC;

LOSERS- DELL EMC ROK HAL BA BHI GS BNI ATI LIFC STP HURN GIGM ABAX MA RIMM FSTR MDR NTAP LEAP UAUA VRTX VRSN FWLT LOGI EBAY DISH;

VIX- flat and trading about 14% above the 10 SMA;

10 year Bond- 3.87%

Oil falling $96.4 and falling fast despite the interchange between Iran and US ships;

Markets continue to act poorly and the oversold technical landscape doesn't seem to be helping. Watching AAPL SMH XLK EBAY BIDU GOOG INTC MSFT RIMM VMW GS MER for clues to direction and it doesn't look like we are going much higher as of now.

Finally, intrade betters now seeing 64% chance of US recession.

ONE MORE THING

Many investors seem to be worried about the performance of equities if a Democrat like Obama or Clinton is elected. My guess is plenty of folks were bullish on equities and especially the drug/pharma sector after the Bush victory in 2000. Checking the numbers:

DRG Index- 1-19-2001 traded at 402 and now at 334 so down 17% after 7 years- doubtful many folks so that coming;

SPX - 1343 to 1411 - a gain of 5% after 7 years or a hair less than 1% per year;

DJIA - 10,588 to 12,800 - a gain of 21% after 7 years or less than 3% per year compounded;

RUT - 488 to 722 - a gain of 48% after 7 years or about 6% per year compounded;

MID - 504-818- a gain of 62%;

HUI - gold bug index- 47-444 or about 903% after 7 years- pretty pretty good - but I doubt many predicted that performance after the Republican victory;

XOI - oil index -507-1525 or a gain of 200% over 7 years- pretty good;

OSX- oil service index- a gain of 160% - also pretty good;

The biggest bust - obviously the tech heavy NAZ/NDX- with a loss of 10% and 26% respectively after 7 years;

Hardly what one expects from 7 years of a "pro growth low tax" POTUS;

Clearly timing is everything for most things in life and probably very true as it relates to these numbers (9/11, tech bubble, pharma meltdown) - and it will also be the case when the next POTUS is elected.

Hard to predict the next 7 years but my guess is it will hardly depend on whether the next POTUS or U.S. Congress is led by a Republican or a Democrat.

WEEKEND UPDATE

Interesting stuff this weekend in Barrons- bullish on Fido funds, PLD AIG BSC CMCSA CMA GCI KSS LM MU LUV SBUX STI TWX;

Michael Santoli's terrific "OK, This is Serious" Streetwise column with the following:

"There's no way to couch the market action as anything but sloppy, enervating and worrisome.

The S&P 500 is a whisper from its August and November lows and below where it began 2007.

The transports are at a fresh low. Big tech dropped 4% Friday to burn those "hiding" there.

Market breadth is ugly, and traders' faith in positive seasonal trends has been sapped.

If the time to do some buying is when it's hardest to find a good reason to do so, and when it's most difficult to enter bids, then we may be edging that way."

On the intrade betting front:

1) a 60% chance of U.S. going into recession in 2008;

2) who will get elected the next POTUS on November 4, 2008:

Obama 36%

Clinton 27%

McCain 15%

Giuliani 11%

Romney 5%

Huckleberry 4.5%

Bloomberg 2%

My guess is Hillary is a great sell here as is Rudy and the Buy is Obama- probably ending up near 100% in November.

And checking the individual states, Florida at 51/49 to go Blue while Ohio seems to be in the bag for Democrats at 72/28;

Funny how Huckabee tormented Romney for weeks in Iowa and looks to have catapulted McCain to the front of the Republican list.