ONE MORE THING

Many investors seem to be worried about the performance of equities if a Democrat like Obama or Clinton is elected. My guess is plenty of folks were bullish on equities and especially the drug/pharma sector after the Bush victory in 2000. Checking the numbers:

DRG Index- 1-19-2001 traded at 402 and now at 334 so down 17% after 7 years- doubtful many folks so that coming;

SPX - 1343 to 1411 - a gain of 5% after 7 years or a hair less than 1% per year;

DJIA - 10,588 to 12,800 - a gain of 21% after 7 years or less than 3% per year compounded;

RUT - 488 to 722 - a gain of 48% after 7 years or about 6% per year compounded;

MID - 504-818- a gain of 62%;

HUI - gold bug index- 47-444 or about 903% after 7 years- pretty pretty good - but I doubt many predicted that performance after the Republican victory;

XOI - oil index -507-1525 or a gain of 200% over 7 years- pretty good;

OSX- oil service index- a gain of 160% - also pretty good;

The biggest bust - obviously the tech heavy NAZ/NDX- with a loss of 10% and 26% respectively after 7 years;

Hardly what one expects from 7 years of a "pro growth low tax" POTUS;

Clearly timing is everything for most things in life and probably very true as it relates to these numbers (9/11, tech bubble, pharma meltdown) - and it will also be the case when the next POTUS is elected.

Hard to predict the next 7 years but my guess is it will hardly depend on whether the next POTUS or U.S. Congress is led by a Republican or a Democrat.