6.22.2007

MORE LISTS



In light of the market thumping, here is a list of some stocks trading at the low end of their recent ranges:





SBUX CDNS VRTX MNST AMGN SPLS SHLD CTSH LINTA ESRX WYNN HON BRK.A





MER MS WMT WB MCD RF MRK HON SYNL CNS RS BW GS LM SYK KMB MCD NDAQ





NYX;

And the strongest today:





F LTD SLB GOOG TYC SIRI XMSR LVLT EBAY BEAS MICC VRSN WNR FCSX DSX SNDA





TLVT GES MTW BIDU HURN HOC M MA NVDA;



Volatility indexes up almost 15% and who exactly wanted to buy the market dip? Well its dipping?

Any shot we hear on Monday how this sell off was over done? And why isn't Cramer defending his Semis from yesterday which hit a new high and are now down 1.5% on the day?

NOON SWOON


Markets are getting thumped here as news hit that Congress intends to tax "carried interest" at ordinary rates. Not sure why it wasn't ordinary income as it is a payment for services rendered.


Anyhow, covering some shorts here as the DJIA is -150, SPX -18 and NAZ -29.


The aforementioned 50 day SMA on the SPX has been tagged and would anyone be surprised by some new acquisitions/mergers on Monday causing a rally?


In addition to the tag of the 50 day SMA, the volatility indexes are also giving buy signals as the VIX/VXO combo are now at the 110% of the 10 day SMA level.


The 2 day RSI levels not quite at the over sold level of 10 but close at or near 20 on the major indexes. So another toe in is probably the way to go for now.




THE OPEN


Markets open lower on the heels of more bad news out of BSC and lower prices in Europe. The DJIA is -80, NAZ -14 and SPX -9.


Strongest sectors include internets, silvers and oil service leading lower are biotechs, semis, homies, utilities, drugs and defense.


The 10 year rate is up slightly at 5.172% while metals are also trading higher.


Biggest winners include EBAY MICC GOOG LTD SLB TYC GSOL WNR HURN X and NOV.


Biggest losers- TBSI ELP CPA CMG SIMG TTEC SO MER C MS LEH MSFT BMY SPLS NTAP LLTC GILD GENZ and ISRG.


Market internals once again are ugly with a net 1,400 losers on the NYSE and 900 net red on the NAZ.


The NDX shows 3/1 down to up while the OEX is much worse at almost 9/1 down to up.


Volatility indexes up about 6% and trading about 5% above their respective 10 day SMA's.


I don't expect a ramp higher today but choppiness around these levels and am trying to focus on next week.


The 50 day SMA on the SPX is 1,506 and about 8 lower from here; the DJIA number is 13,323 and about 150 lower; my guess is those numbers are buys if we get there.


6.21.2007

CLOSING NOTES.


Markets closed near their highs as the NDX /Tech was the star of the day. Even Jimmy Cramer noticed and started to pump semis as they made 52 week highs.


Strong sectors included semis, oils, tech, trannies and mid caps; leading lower were reits and biotechs.


Big winners included NVDA SNDK MXIM LBTYA GRMN KLAC KFT WMB CVX BHI XOM COP ROK SNHY CF TBSI ACH SIMO HURN EDU and SNP.


BIG losers- BWLD FCSX HDNG PTNR AES TWX SBUX ESRX WFMI LEH AMGN SLG and GE.


Market internals were slightly green on the NYSE with 300 more green than red while the NAZ showed about 100 net green.


The NDX was 3/1 up to down while the OEX was not quite as good with 7 up to 3 down.


Volatility indexes closed down by about 3% and now trade at/near their 10 day SMA's.


The 10 year bond rate closed at about 5.163% and is still way off its recent high near the 5.32% level.


Major market indexes with 2 day RSI levels generally in the 50 range as the pinball game continues. Best is NDX while the worst is RUT 2K.


Other noteworthy items- OIH up $4 and back near the $180 level after an ugly smack down yesterday; also doing well in the oil patch were DO FTO HOC HP RIG TSO VLO and XOM;

after recent lousy action in the brokers, BSC and GS closed green while MER LEH MS were red.


Low 2 day RSI readings for:


SBUX CDNS MNST MER WMT CCU BW GES NDAQ NYX KMB BRK.A PWE;


High readings:


NVDA LVLT GM CMCSA CSC LTD COST QCOM Y UAUA.


MORE LISTS

After yesterday's crushing and here is a list of stretched equities:

Low 2 day RSI's:

MO WMT AVP MER MS CDNS SBUX LINTA CTSH MNST SHLD WYNN WMT CNS KSU BW NDAQ NYX

High 2 day RSI's:

NVDA LOGI EXPE CSC HD

HARD TO BUY


Markets open lower again and seem to be heading straight to zero. The DJIA is -85, NAZ -12 and SPX -7.5 as many a bear declare victory.


Strong sectors include oils, semis and tech while brokers, reits, metals, airlines, homies, retail and fiancials lag.


Big winners include NVDA SNDK GRMN XOM BYM CVX FDX SNP DRYS WNR HOC DWSN TXT VLO BHP BAM and KLAC.


Big losers- SBUX AMLN NTAP ESRX LEH MER MS AXP GS CAT GE SYNL BWLD BTJ DRC and FCSX.


Market internals are weak with about 2,100 net losers on the NYSE and NAZ while the OEX is 3/1 losers to winner and the NDX acting best with almost as many winners as losers.


Volatility indexes up another 5% and now trading about 6% above their respective 10 day SMA's.


The 2 day RSI numbers on the major indexes at/near 10 with the MIDs at 8 so I am dipping in my first toe to this dip now as I type.


I am also watching the brokers closely because that is the area of concern with their sub prime paper. As I type they are getting hammered but also improving.


Also giving me thought that a rally may be near is the action in tech as my whole tech screen is green while the major indexes are crushed.

6.20.2007

THE BACK STOP


Markets close way down on the heels of lower oil and higher interest rates. Yesterday, I mentioned how over sold the volatility indexes were and how it was time to sell; well didn't think we would implode this quickly but it is what it is.

Strong sectors included airlines, retail and internet while silvers, oils, real estate, utilities and gaming lagged.

Big winners- UAUA PDCO QCOM HD TWX FDX TGT HURN PTNR GSOL BWLD and ICE.

Big losers- BW SSYS NOV GTI TSO NTAP GRMN MNST EXC XOM CVX TYC and AA.

Market internals way ugly at a net 3,100 red on the NYSE and NAZ while the OEX/NDX closed with about 4x as many losers as winners.

The DJIA with 5 winners and 25 losers- winners include HD GM and PG while XOM JPM and HON were crushed.


The SPX closed at a 2 day RSI of 15 and the VIX/VXO are both up about 14% and only trading at/near their 10 day SMA's, so no buy signals yet as they were wayyyyyyyy over sold.

Also, the last time we had an implosion in equities, the 50 day SMA on the SPX proved to be a great back stop. Where dat- SPX 1,503 and about 9 points lower.

And a new guy interested in buying DJ at $60- interesting as now Rupert is probably going to have to raise his bid and the Bancroft's will probably have to sell at a higher price. Good news all around and long DJ.




THE LIST



Short Term Over Bought:





EXPE LOGI NVDA CMCSA SPLS ERIC PDCO HD TWX LTD CSC IBM CF CYNO FCSX CRDN MTOX EOC BCSI BAP ELP HDNG FTK AFSI PTNR TBSI SPSS LFL BEN HP Y.





Short Term Over Sold:





GES BW MO AVP PFE BNI SEPR CDNS MNST MCHP LINTA ADBE CLI IBM NVDA BRK.A WYNN.

Oil stocks down but not over sold- who there when and if:

APC CAM CNQ DO DVN FTO HOC PXD PWE RIG SLB TSO VLO XTO.



Major indexes with 2 day RSI's at/near 20 so not at buy territory yet while the VIX/VXO group up almost 10% and still below the 10 day SMA's.

NOON LOOK


Markets are mixed with the SPX taking the biggest loss of the major indexes on the heels of the sell off in the crude patch. The RUT is also acting poorly.


Strong sectors include airlines, retail, internets, semis and brokers while oils, gaming, reits, utilities and biotech lag.


Key stocks that are higher include GS MS LEH ICE CME NYX BOT GE CL AMZN GOOG AKAM INTC TXN CROX and AMGN.


Big winners include QCOM UAUA PCAR HD TGT FDX CL MS BWLD CYNO SPSS DXPE and ICE while big reds include BW SSYS CPLA TSO WNR HOC SLB BHI COP XOM WMB MNST GRMN CELG NIHD and ERTS.


Market internals show a net 540 losers on the NYSE and net 500 red on the NAZ.


The OEX /NDX group is much better with about half up and half down.


Volatility indexes higher but still well under their 10 day SMA's.


Sell candidates include GE MA BEN LEH TWX BHP EWA Y HD LTD IBM

MORNING DRIP


Markets opened higher but have since sold off on the heels of higher interest rates.


Sectors acting best include retail, airlines, internets, trannies, defense and brokers; worst performers include gaming, silvers, metals, reits, banks and biotechs.


Big winners include MS LM NYX MA GE AKAM HD DRYS DXPE FCSX FTK DWSN FDX and CL.


Big losers- MGM AA ATI MRK HIG GS ISRG CELG MNST MDT BW CNH DECK POT TEX COH and RIMM.


Market internals have flipped bearish as the NYSE/NAZ show 750 net losers.


The OEX/NDX show 3/2 losers to winners.


Volatility indexes higher by 2.5% and still way under the 10 day SMA.


Notable movers with high 2 day RSI's:


BHP Y MA BEN LM TROW GE TWX BHP Y APC DO HP RIG HD LTD;


Low 2 day RSI's:


NDAQ KMB WYNN CLI FCE.A


Major indexes back to 2 day RSI's in the middle at/near 50.

6.19.2007

CLOSING NUMBERS


Another boring day bites the dust as the DJIA finishes +23, NAZ flat and SPX +3 while the RUT was +2 and the Mid caps -1.5.


Strong sectors included oil service, airlines, metals, defense, banks and large cap value- lower were internets, semis, brokers, retail and tech.


Key stocks in the green included AIB BAC C JPM MA USB WFC GS LEH ICE GE SNDK TIF CROX LTD PVH WMS IBN SGP and GILD.


In the red were AMGN DNA WYNN INFY BSC MER MS BOT NYX NMX AKAM TXN MSFT INFY and all 4 horseman (GOOG RIMM AAPL AMZN).


BIG winners included CLRK BWLD DWSN SNHY BIDU CPLA PCLN FCSX TWIN EXPE UAUA CSC ATI IBM GS and NTAP.


Market internals were flat on the NDX/OEX and slightly green on the NYSE/NAZ.


Volatility indexes dripped lower and closed down about 5% and trade at/near 15% below their 10 day SMA's screaming SELL.


The 2 day RSI's on most of the major indexes at/near 80/90 and the 10 year Bond rate down to 5.086%.


Other notables:


MA BEN LEH GE TWX OIH DO HP RIG SLB DEL IBM NVDA SNDK PAAS all over bought with 2 day RSI's above 95.


NDAQ NYX CL KMB MCHP SEPR CDNS all way over sold with 2 day RSI readings under 5.


Also another new high on the EWA as it closes up 1.4% at 29 with a 2 day RSI reading at 97 (sell Mortimer sell).



NOON CHOP


Major indexes have flipped the switch to green led by Big Cap and value stocks.


Strongest sectors include airlines, metals, oil service, defense, software, drugs and banks; leading lower are retail, semis, real estate, brokers and mid caps.


All 4 horseman lower led by RIMM.


Big winners include BAC EXPE UAUA NTAP IACI ADSK BMY CSC GE IBM CLRK BWLD DWSN FCSX AFSI IDSA CPA and BIDU.


Big losers- EML RIO AVT AKH APLX MCHP ALTR RIMM CKFR INFY SHLD F TXN FDX CL PEP AVP and UTX.

Market internals are mixed on the NYSE /NAZ and a hair green on the NDX/OEX combo.

Volatility indexes down about 2% and trading under the 10 day SMA's.

Highlights of the day:

GE breaking out; large cap value out performing- GS reversing the recent sell off- TXT up $3 on an up grade- NDAQ/NYX continue to drip lower- MGM at/near new 52 week high- SHLD and Eddie L under the 200 day; INTC continues to act well;

THE OPEN


Markets open lower with the Midcaps and small cap value being the biggest losers. The DJIA acts the best of the major indexes while large cap value is green.


Strongest sectors include airlines, drugs and bank while the worst groups include semis, retails, real estate, trannies and homies.


Key stocks mainly lower with SNDK GE BAC JPM C LEH LM ICE PFE SGP PPH TXT LVS green and MA GS BSC MS BOT CME NYX NMX PEP PG TXN AKAM RIMM GOOG AMZN AAPL CROX all red.


Big winners- EXPE UAUA IACI BMY CSC BAC GD CLRK BWLD CPA DWSN ICE BIDU;


Big losers- EML AVT AKH HURN SYNL DECK RIMM TEX FDX MCHP ALTR MXIM MICC AAPL;


Volatility indexes down about 2% and still trading under their respective 10 day SMA's while the 2 day RSI reading on the major indexes hovers near the 50 level.


PRE MARKET NEWS


Stock index futures trading lower indicating a down opening on the heels of some crummy numbers from BBY. The housing starts number came in on target at 1,474K.


Gapping higher - EXPE EPIX CLRK ZGEN MGRM LNET TASR NUVO FDS ONSM CMED CELG;


Gapping lower- ALTH BBY CC JSDA BEAS VOD LEG RSH CSG;


Oil is trading down 25 cents while gold is down $1.8 and silver down 3 cents.


BBY said strong revenue results from lower gross margin products cut into gross profit rates; they see fiscal year 2008 eps at $2.95-$3.15 v $3.16 estimates;


The 10 year Bond rate is backing off again and trades this AM at 5.127%- I suspect the markets will move higher if the rate stays in this area or moves lower;

Some high 2 day RSI readings:

CIB 100

MA 99

BOT 99

LEH 100

BYD 98

MGM 98

BHP 95

LUK 95

APC 99

DO 97

FTO 99

DVN 98

HOC 100

DEL 98

XLE 95

OIH 95

RIMM 98

SNDK 97

TXN 95

SMH 95

Some low readings:

NDAQ 0

DISH 0

NYX 4

SEPR 3

6.18.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets ended the day not far from where they began as a very boring session thankfully came to conclusion.


Strongest sectors included oils, metals, tech, semis, internets and banks while reits, utilities, trannies, biotechs and drugs lagged.


Strong stocks included XRX EMC LEH S GOOG AAPL ERIC YHOO GRMN RIMM HDNG MTOX EDU TWIN and FCSX.


Weak stocks inlcuded ATHR NILE TTEC ACH DXPE AEP HON FDX ETR BNI ATI CDNS MNST SEPR CHRW CELG and GENZ.


Market internals closed at/near the flat line on the NYSE/NDX.


The NDX was weak with about 2 issues down for every one up while the OEX was about 45 up to 55 down.


Volatility indexes a hair lower and about 10% under their 10 day SMA's.


Lots of boring action but strength in tech and the NAZ may give us higher markets later in the week in spite of the general over bought market conditions.

NOON TIME


Markets continue to trade mixed and with out much excitement as tech and large cap value leads the way.


Other strong sectors include oils, metals, semis, software, banks and airlines; leading lower are reits, utilities, trannies, drugs and small cap value.


Key stocks mainly mixed with C MA LEH BOT AAPL GOOG RIMM DVN APC XTO TSO higher and CME ICE NMX NYX MER BSC BAC SLG AKAM INTC PG MO GE CL all lower.


Biggest winners ERIC SNDK AA XRX EK BHI COF HDNG FCSX MTOX TWIN WNR and SYNL.


Losers include RRST ATHR ACH TLVT DXPE FDX HAL AMGN CDNS CHRW MNST MICC and EXPD.

Market internals have flipped to flat on the NYSE/NAZ OEX/NDX.

Probably some blips and dips the rest of the day but basically a range bound choppy market.

Volatility indexes are mixed.

THE OPEN


Markets have turned lower as rates are turning higher with the 10 year up to 5.182%.


Strong sectors include software, oil, homies, tech, metals and airlines while reits, biotech, utilities and trannies lag.


Key stock winners include AAPL GOOG C MA LEH MS and RIMM while BSC GS CME ICE NMX NYX JPM SLG TIF CROX PVH MRK SGP GILD CELG SYK INFY CTSH are all red.


Biggest winners include BEAS SYMC ERIC EK AA BHI TWIN SYNL PCR MTOX VIP WNR DRYS and VIP.


Biggest losers include TLVT CNS ATHR ACH HAL AES F AEP CDNS SEPR NMST AMLN GENZ JNPR EXPD and VRTX.


Market internals have flipped bearish as the NYSE shows 400 more losers than winner while the NAZ shows more than 600 net red.


The OEX is about 43 up and 57 down while the NDX is 2 lower for each issue higher.


Volatility indexes moving higher and up between 4 and 6%;


Y mentioned favorably in Barrons is up about 6% while BHP EWA FCX LUK HON UTX XLE APC CNQ DVN HP PXD RIG MA LM TROW GE and LCAP all hit new 20 day highs.


New 20 day lows for PG and KMB.


OVER BOUGHT


The QQQQ just hit a new 52 week high in the pre market as equities are set to open higher yet again.


Major indexes are trading with 2 day RSI levels at/near 90 while the oil patch seems even more extended with the XLE/OIH hitting new all time highs on Friday.


I did not sell out my OIH (+27% for 2007) expecting higher prices but did sell some calls as a short term top at/near these levels would not surprise me.


Gapping up - AAPL LXRX VICL CMED CO DDSS ORCT CVTX IMOS CRNT STEM JSDA CHL SAP AA MRK AA MS LEH;


Gapping down- ENCY NMX SLGN CDNS COST GRMN MICC HAL ROK FDX;


AAPL up on the heels of the announcement of an 8 hour talk time on the IPHONE and talk of an AAPL navigation/entertainment system for automobiles.


GE supposedly looking at DJ in a joint bid with Pearson.


GS down grades the coal sector to cautious from Neutral.


The 10 year Bond rate is down to 5.142% which may move the dollar lower and metals higher.