FINAL 30 MINUTE MUSINGS

A few theories so far on the why the market ramped in the final few minutes of trading on Friday:

1) first I heard it was these guys;

2) then I read it was RUT rebalancing;

3) then it was the SPY hitting the SMA 200;

4) the final theory - left for last was Cramer's who said "Was it manipulation? Was it short squeeze? Was it hedge fund covering? Blah, blah, blah. I will tell you what it was. A lack of sellers"

That seems a bit silly as their were high negative tick readings no more that 15 minutes before the big move higher- In addition - not more than an hour before the close equities were lower on the day.

Bottom line - I have no idea what happened but it really doesn't matter as next week it will be something else driving the markets higher or lower.

Dr. Brett opining on whether the move on Friday was the start of something big;

Barry and Floyd on the worsening loan problems;

Goolsbee saving lives;

BESPOKE with some sector highlights;

The newest stock market Oracle;

Finally - Bill looks at the last half hour via the VIX and SPX;

THE CHOPFEST

Quite a close to those who were watching the chopfest between 9.30 and 3.45 EST- low and behold 15 minutes before the close the futures took off to the North and accelerated higher - about 12 points and another few points after the close- something strange happening and I refuse to speculate.

SPX +12, NAZ +22.5 and DJIA +97.

Strongest sectors- trannies, homies, metals, materials, retail and ags while semis, junk, telecom and tech lagged.

SPX - 406 GREEN;

NDX- 82 GREEN;

VIX - down 8.7% at 28.92;

Market in over bought territory with VIX about 7% under the SMA 10- and RSI (2) levels as follows:

ES -85;

NQ-92;

YM -82;

TF 86;

Finally dove in and bought the SSO at/near the 25.6 level and sold a bit higher but before the big ramp up-

Also sold some other SSO I had accumuated - just don't like to see these ramps without taking some advantage.

Commodities continuing to work as the dollar dipping to the 79.35 area helps prices move higher- more dollars to buy the same amount of product-

Gold +$22;

Silver +.50;

Crude +$1.4;

Bonds rebounded higher today and I suspect a nice trade is setting up in the TBT- perhaps early next week.

SNOOZERAMA

Major chop/snoozefest happening today in the equity markets as the SPX is higher by 2, NAZ -2 and the DJIA -4.

Strong sectors- trannies, metals, homies, energy and retail while semis, telecom, tech and banks lag.

Market internals a hair better than flat with SPX over NAZ;

VIX - down 2% at 31;

Metals and commodities continue higher although off their best levels.

Looks like a difficult day to make any money as my usual trading vehicle SSO has been in a very tight trading range all day- A little pop before the end of the day is probably in the cards - but no homeruns.

THE YELLOW

Equity futures markets trading up as usual - and its the end of the month- however please be careful as the ES futs are a hair under old resistance at 914 and of course that level is also the weekly R1- and of course that is a bit above the high of the morning on the ES.

In addition- RSI (2) levels getting extended to the North and they have been a pretty good tell over this recent trading range:

ES 77;

NQ 88;

YM 72;

TF 76;

Gold/Silver/Ag commodities all ripping higher again this morning while the dollar has sunk under the 80 level on the DXY - EURO 141 and the # 1.61.

Gold -$977;

Silver -$15.5;

Crude- $66.2

In the news- MS upgraded to a $36 target;

Tim with an OIH target;

Trader Mike - on the range;

No recovery over here;

And who is driving the optimism;

538 on where the Hispanic vote matters;

Optimism-

Nutty/Grumpy old men;

CLOSING RUT

A bit bizarre today as the markets seemed to respond to the movement of interest rates - except when the mark up folks started their afternoon work - and it looks like they forgot to mark up the small caps.

Here are the futures as I type:

NQ +15;

ES +13;

YM +88;

TF (rut2k) flat;

Strongest sectors- energy, metals, banks, brokers and real estate while homies, retail, ags, biotech and small caps lagged.

NYSE- almost twice as many up down;

NAZ- 200 net green;

NDX- 64 GREEN;

SPX - 355 GREEN;

VIX- down 2% at 31.67;

Dollar index - up a hair at 80.58;

Gold - closed at $958;

Silver- closed at $15.15;

The 10 year bond rate unchanged at the close at 3.67% although some moves during the day;

A good day for the fish as I had a nice SSO trade and bought DBA to hold for a longer time frame- and definitely will agree with Dougie Kass that today was lots of marking up from the folks who do that kind of thing- just not sure why they didn't want to mark up small caps or non big cap tech-

Oh well - expecting a choppy day tomorrow and not much marking up - pretty much done for the month.

GM apparently going 11 on Monday so hopefully those folks buying now at $1 plus sell to a less shrewd investor;

The Einhorn big bets;

Jason with a range analysis;

Buy and Hold - surprisingly bullish - like they weren't every year since 1982;

Love the Cheney and wow republicans think he is on TV a bit too much;

MIIDDAY MOVES

Markets are chopping around at midday and just when it looks like much lower /higher the opposite direction kicks in-and it looks like the Bond RATES are moving higher again as we are now above yesterdays close at 3.711%.

SPX +5, NAZ +2 and DJIA +15;

Strongest sectors- energy, metals, fins, brokers and materials while homies, retail, semis and small caps lag.

NYSE - flattish internals;

NAZ- 300 net losers;

SPX- 272 GREEN;

NDX- 50 GREEN;

VIX - FLAT;

Gold up $12- Silver +2.5% Crude higher by $1.

Markets moving quickly on the heels of moves in the bond markets- the dollar also stronger as the day ticks on- will play small as it seems very difficult to pick the direction for very long.

THE WAKE UP

Futures are trading up a bit lower the big downward fall yesterday afternoon-

ES -1;

YM -4;

NQ -1;

Clearly not meaningful- although happy to see we aren't way down -

Dick Armey on squawk - and always with dopey stuff - today telling us how bad the government is at running things- Hey clown it wasn't the government geniuses that got us into this mess - it was the clowns making all the loans to all the peeps who would never be able to make payments or pay back the debt-and if the gov didn't step up quickly well who knows where we would be today- please WAKE UP.

Samberg and Pequot - shutting down;

Hussman with the "Abrupt Downside Risk";

Tobin's Q;

Some big news out of the IRS - plunging revenue;

Good news on the cancer front;

Martin Feldstein on the worst may be over but;

Public seems to be happy with Sonia and some interesting Supreme Court history;

France - with a drop in their beverage sales;

THE REVERSAL

The DJIA closed up 196 yesterday and today down about 173- as equity markets closed at the lows-

Strongest sectors- semis, ags, junk, mining, and oil service while reits, real estate, banks, materials, homies and financials lagged.

NYSE- 1300 net losers;

NAZ- 800 net losers;

NDX- 31 GREEN;

SPX- 74 GREEN;

VIX- up 6% at 32.5;

Note the DBA closed flat while the DBC was higher along with silver while gold was about unchanged- the dollar higher with lots of support still at the 80 area-

Quite a reversal from yesterday as the rates on bonds rocketed higher- now 3.695% on the 10 year note- quite a jump and it seemed to have a cause the big drop in equities.

Trading for now is just day by day as yesterday was a rip higher and today the opposite-

The fish made some nice dough on MS and broke even on the SSO trade- gave it a bit too much room and but - so is trading.

Markets now in the middle of the recent range with lots of support at the 875/880 area- note yesterday lows as the level where the markets rocketed higher-

And how about Dick Cheney with Kudlow - as VP he couldn't be found - now that he tosses grenades he is everywhere- and with an approval at about 50% of Powell's;

A question from Barry;

Big money over in California especially for the public service employees;

BESPOKE looking at the consumer confidence;

Tucker - taking to the web;

The quant with some good stuff;

Finally - Barrons looking at the DJIA 30;

SUPPORT LEVELS

Markets getting trashed on the heels of rising interest rates as the 10 year Note has moved up to 3.695% and about 20 bps on the day-

Some areas to look at it for support on the SPX:

The EMA 20 sitting at 891;

Yesterdays lows and recent lows at 880;

The SMA 50 now up to 857;

Weekly Pivot point at around 850;

MORNING TRADE

Markets are mixed this AM with strength in the NAZ/NDX and big cap tech while there is weakness in the DJIA as JPM PG PFE MMM KFT and GE are all lower.

Strongest sectors- metals, semis, retail, homies and biotech while reits, ags, banks, drugs and trannies lag.

NYSE/NAZ flattish internals;

NDX- 58 GREEN;

SPX - 235 GREEN;

VIX - lower by 1.5% at 30.2;

Two trades today - one very nice in MS as now up about 60 cents and one SSO and up a little there after selling some-

Balance of the day probably choppy and looking to sell my SSO on some high tick readings - patience - and I suspect we get some rips.

Also, checking the chart above - the NDX is starting to outperform again after flipflopping for a week weeks with the SPX.

FUTURES FLATLINING

Futures are trading near the flat line this morning with the NQ acting the worst-

Crude up a bit gold down a bit and the dollar moving on up yet again for two mornings in a row.

Dr. Brett on trying to short days like yesterday and what to expect next;

Trader Mike not seeing the volume and lower highs so far;

Another Bernie indicted;

Ten way twitter will change business;

THE MISSING LINKS

Markets closed at the highs and not that much action in the afternoon except for a few dips which I bought and was stopped out -

Not looking for much tomorrow - except maybe some lower prices-

Some charts from Tim and he sees some bad news for the bears;

More ugly housing numbers and higher stock prices;

The Quant with another test;

Kass with Non Exuberance;

GM needing more financing;

Hamptons house for sale;

The ratings game;

The GEM with a nice find;

Nifty 50 still alive- barely;

AT THE HIGHS

Markets closed the day at/near the best levels but not very different from the lunch time levels- SPX +23, NAZ +58 and DJIA +196.

Strongest sectors - real estate, small caps, retail, trannies and banks while metals, junk, ags, drugs and oil service lagged.

NYSE- 2000 net green;

NAZ- 1500 net green;

SPX - 470 GREEN;

NDX- 97 GREEN;

VIX - down 6% at 30.6 and 2% under the SMA 10;

Interesting stuff today as both GS IAI and MS closed at the highs- banks not so much with BAC closing red and the dollar closed a hair in the green at 80.2 and there seems to be powerful support at the 80 area.

Tech the real story of the day with AAPL higher by $8, GOOG +11, RIMM +5, I BM +3 and AMZN +2.7.

RSI (2) levels on most major indexes - a hair over 80 with the NDX at 84 and the SPX at 82- and tomorrow is probably turn around Wednesday - so - looking at shorts for day trading tomorrow.

THE OPEN

Quite a move to the upside as everyone seemed to be expecting a move lower on the heels of the late day sell off on Friday and the North Korean military activities - Nope - SPX +16, NAZ +42 and DJIA +152.

Strongest sectors- reits, real estate, retail, small caps, tech and trannies while metals, ags, junk, bonds and energy lag.

NYSE- 1600 net gainers;

NAZ- 1400 net gainer;

NDX- 98 GREEN;

SPX- 455 GREEN;

VIX- down 6% at 30.6 and trading near the SMA 10;

Just about everything moving on up today with tech and real estate doing the best- - Levels to watch R3 on the QQQQ near 34.55 and the 91 level on the SPY.

Still looking at lower highs on the SPX as 930 is the high from about 10 days ago and 925 last week- watching the brokers and banks as MS BAC are green but hardly ripping-

Strategy for the day is buy the dips - just trying to find the levels where I want to dip-

THE LEVELS

Futures are trading lower and below fair value after the nice three day weekend- Levels I am looking at-

The 20 day EMA has been support for a while and now looks like it will turn into resistance - the level near 890;

The 50 day SMA - near 850 - should be big support;

The 200 SMA - big resistance near 935;

The first FIB retrace area- near 868 with a 930 top and 666 bottom - 868 the 76.4 retrace level.

The pivot points also look good today as the have been touched both ways on the ES YM and NQ-

ES Support near 877 and resistance near 884 to start;

YM 8200 support and 8260 resistance to begin the day;