4.11.2008

The Wrap


Not much to say except an ugly day with the DJIA closing -255, NAZ -61 and the SPX -28. The RUT was worse at -2.7% while the MID's were better than both the SPX and the DJIA closing down 1.8%.


Strongest sectors- utils, real estate and ags while airlines, semis, tech and brokers were the worst of the bunch.


NYSE/NAZ - 3600 net losers;

NDX /OEX- 15 out of 200 closing green;


It was adios to the 50 SMA on the SPX which was at/near the 1340 area and the next area of support is the 1315 level. Hopefully the masters on Sunday has a better finish to it than today's markets.


Midday Look


Markets continue to trade lower with the DJIA -170, NAZ -40 and the SPX -18.


Strongest sectors- ags, real estate, banks and trannies while airlines, semis,tech and metals act the worst. NDX/RUT worse than the SPX/DJIA.


NYSE- 1600 net losers;

NAZ- 1375 net losers;

NDX -11 GREEN;

OEX-20 GREEN;

IBD-20 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 4.5% while the VXO is up almost 9%;


Down volume 4X up volume;


WINNERS- FAST FMCN BBBY UAUA TEVA CCU AEP EP HAL RF WMT GENC CLR SQM SD CMED MON;


LOSERS- HLF WDC ISRG BMI BLK HOLX CTAS LRCX NVDA TLAB CTSH FLEX AMAT GE INTC TYC DIS CBS AAPL ORCL;
RSI (2) levels on DJIA/SPX at/near 14- so not in crazy low territory;


So far- 1340 on SPX holds and a snap back rally this afternoon would not be surprising as the banks are still one of the best performers despite the red number. Brokers have worsened through the day as have big cap tech.


The Open


Some interesting "stuff" this morning on the heels of the GE earnings whiff- such as a 26 year low on the Univ of Michigan sentiment data at 63.2 v 69 consensus. Just wonder how much of that is due to W's lowest approval rating ever?


Anyhoo- strongest sectors in the carnage include utils, real estate and BANKS- while airlines, gaming, defense, steel and tech are the worst.


Key stocks -6/40 higher led by UA MS C MON V MA DECK GS- lower are GE ISRG NVDA WYNN LVS and MER;


NYSE- 1700 net losers;

NAZ- 1340 net losers;

NDX-10 GREEN;

OEX-20 GREEN;

Up volume 4/1 Down Volume;


Vix - up 1 or 4% and trading at/near the SMA 10;

Crude- down 50 cents- to $109.5;

Gold - down $5 to $927;


EURO- 158+;


Indexes look pretty ugly while banks and brokers are actually showing some relative strength - BAC C MA MTB USB V WB WFC GS LEH MS all green while the XBD is down less than .5%;


Tech is performing in line while AAPL GOOG RIMM BIDU HHH SMH MSFT INTC are lower but hardly crushed.


Looking for 1340 and the 50 SMA to hold in light of the financials with higher prices more likely than not next week.

BESPOKE with some nice work on the energy sector;

4.10.2008

Pre Close


Leaving a bit early for some personal stuff but markets looking ok as the support area of 1350 on the SPX held nicely. Financials acting funky but a move higher by that group tomorrow would not be a shock as would a reversal in oil/metals.


Market internals pretty good on the NDX/OEX with 75% of all stocks in the green- NYSE/NAZ not quite as good.


Keeping most of my longs into tomorrow - it Friday and that hasn't been a good day to sell of late-


One reason the markets may continue to move higher and challenge the 1400 level on the SPX- right here.


Forbes with 4 tech stocks;


Cramer - why GS is a buy;


Midday RAMP


Markets have moved up nicely after hitting an early low of 1350.11 on the SPX- and my trade from yesterday afternoon SSO- is looking pretty pretty good.


Banks and brokers have flipped to green (cept GS) with nice moves in C JPM MTB USB WB AMG LM and TROW;


Tech all green (cept MOT SNDK) with SMH AMAT BRCM INTC NVDA TXN YHOO acting very well;


Equities moving up with the dollar while metals/crude/EURO moving down;


NYSE- 1010 net winners;

NAZ-660 net winners;

NDX -85 GREEN;

OEX-80 GREEN;

IBD 65 GREEN;


VIX- down 3.5% at 22;


Up volume almost 3X Down volume;


Obvious areas where sellers may appear SPX 1380 and DJIA 12700- and VIX -26.


Sitting tight now with the longs and watching as I expect the close may be at/near the highs- which is usually the case on strong days.

The Open


Markets are trading mixed with the NAZ higher and the DJIA/SPX flat to lower.


Strongest sectors- biotech, airlines, ags, homies, drugs and retail while steel, metals, gaming, financials and energy lag.


Key stocks- a mixed bag with IBB CELG ISRG INTC SMH TIF higher and MTW BIDU GS MGM MS LVS DECK lower;


NYSE- 275 net losers;

NAZ- 150 net losers;

NDX -50 GREEN;

OEX-55 GREEN;

IBD -35 GREEN;


VIX- flat at 23+;

Down volume a bit ahead of Up;

Crude/Gold lower;

EURO 1.58;


Markets a bit disappointing as financials are trading poorly with GS LEH MER MS all lower by at least a % and banks also bad with BAC C JPM MA MTB WFC lower.


The good news is the tech world with semis acting well along with HHH AAPL INTC MSFT RIMM- GOOG flattish;

Pre Open


Markets are set for a flat open as I type despite the crummy SSS number that have been trickling in all morning. Good numbers from WMT DD and initial claims better than expected at 357K v 383K consensus.


In addition- oil/gold/euro all trading lower;


TODDO with about 35 things to think about;


Darda with a WSJ column about a new problem looming;


Dr Brett with its all the same;


The Quant on the P/C;


And Bill with some Triple Tops and W bottoms;

4.09.2008

Technically Speaking


The SPX is hovering at/near 1350 which happens to be at /near the 50 EMA and just about the 50% retracement from the recent low of 1313 on 3/31 and the high of 1386 on Monday.


In addition, the SMA 50 is nearby at 1341 (more support) which also happened to be the old resistance until the April fools break higher.


RSI (2) levels also in buyable ranges as follows:


SPX 10

DJIA 10

NAZ 7

NDX 10

RUT 4

MID 13


I dipped in to SSO at 69.25 and will use a stop under the 1340 area.

Midday Moves


Markets continue to trade lower and the 1360 level on the SPX is over head yet again. Brokers and banks the culprits as each of those sectors gets pummelled. The letter C also turning flat after the great news from last night gets sold. Metals and oils higher with crude trading at/near $112 and gold at $938.


NYSE- 1150 net losers;

NAZ -1100 net losers;

NDX-15 GREEN;

OEX-25 GREEN;

IBD -35 GREEN;


VIX- up 4% and trading just below the 10 SMA;


The SPX might find some support at 1352, the 50 EMA- while the 50 SMA is at/near 1341 and now on an up slope.


Just watching for now without much conviction in either direction- and how about Jimmy's new deal?


And check out the commodity forecasts on BESPOKE- how is that for the contrarian?

The Open


Markets are trading lower with the DJIA -27, NAZ -12 and SPX -3.5.


Strong sectors include oils, metals and utils while airlines, biotech, homies, and trannies lag.


Key stocks generally lower with NVDA C XOM KLAC KO MA SMH higher while AMZN MGM MS MTW V TIF NYX leading lower.


NYSE- 540 net losers;

NAZ-470 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX-33 GREEN;

IBD-50 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 2%;

Up volume about .5X Down volume;

Oil over $111 on news of the draw down;

Gold- up $8 to $927;


Doesn't look like 1360 will hold this morning and I have sold off the SSO - Banks / brokers/tech predominantly red - and if things change or look like they will- they will reappear on my sheets.


4.08.2008

The Close


An uneventful trading day as markets sold off on the Fed minutes news but ended the day about where they were when the minutes hit. The DJIA closed -36, NAZ -16 and SPX -7.


Sectors in the green included steels, oils, airlines, defense, utils and defense while semis, homies, banks, real estate and metals lagged.


NYSE- 500 net losers;

NAZ-465 net losers;

NDX-30 GREEN;

OEX-45 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;


VIX- flat;

Up volume about .6X / Down volume;


Oil unch at $109;

Gold -7 at $919;


Markets are acting fairly well holding the 1360 line on the bad FED mins news. I am holding my SSO long into tomorrow.

The Ballplayer


Fed Minutes- worse than expected as some Fed members see "little indication" housing has begun to stabilize- some members see a "severe economic slump"; and find recent inflation data "dissappointing"; and some feel that "rate policy alone could not solve problems."


Bottom line- markets moving lower on the move- just feel the dippers may find it an attractive entry point near the 1360 level.

It is opening day at Shea stadium and the Mets are winning as I type, I note former Met/Phillie Lenny D says he has a 1,000% batting average since he is back giving options advice on realmoney.com- well last Thursday he suggested to buy 10 of the Oct 35 GRMN calls at $21.9 while the stock was at a 52 week low at the $52 area. So after today's action a bit lower with a bid of $18 as the stock drops to another low in the high $40's. Not sure how he computes his winners- and not sure what he will do with this position- but taking option advice from former baseball players- a bit tough to take and kind of pathetic from Cramer's site.

MIdday Snoozefest


Markets continue to trade lower with limited volatility as all the trading seems to be in a pretty pretty tight range. The DJIA -44, NA Z-14 and SPX -7.


Sectors acting well include steel, airlines, oils, gaming and ags- lagging are homies, semis, banks and telecom.


NYSE- 575 net losers;

NAZ- 440 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX-44 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;


WINNERS- GENC TITN GLTS SVR HK CLR UAUA LEAP DISH RIMM SRCL VRSN BIIB ATI F UNH EP AES MRK WMB;


LOSERS- C S TXN WFC RF MO GOOG BAC INTC GRMN FMCN LRCX KLAC AMAT HANS FAVA MICC NTAP FLS BVN TNE KEX LKQX FSTR ATW;


VIX- down almost 2%;

Down volume 1.5X Up volume;

Oil a hair under 109;

Gold $917;

10 year- 3.539%;


The volatility is gone from the markets for the moment but an upside jig before the afternoon is over would not surprise me- I have some longs with a stop under 1358 on the SPX.

The Open



Markets open lower - led down by the DJIA -51, NAZ -17 and SPX -6.





Strongest sectors- oils, ags and steel with semis, telecom, china, homies and drugs lagging.





Key stocks- 15/40 in the green led by MGM V NYX MA POT CME GS RIMM UA and XOM- laggards- KLAC C SMH MTW INTC GE WYNN;





NYSE- 825 net losers;


NAZ- 645 net losers;


NDX-27 GREEN;


OEX-35 GREEN;


IBD -58 GREEN;





VIX- higher by 2% and trading 5% below the 10 SMA;





Down volume about 1.5X Up volume;





Crude- flat at $109;


Gold down $10 at $915;


EURO- stuck at 1.57;


10 year Bond- 3.545%;





Markets lower but look to be hanging in ok for now with leadership in oils and some brokers. Technical area near 1360 on SPX has held for now and buying dips may just work- If buying here, wouldn't want to let any losses go much below 1360 as a stop area.





RSI (2) levels have come down a bit and now show as follows:





DJIA 24


SPX 33


NAZ 23


NDX 30


RUT 33



BESPOKE with some target changes and a stretch;

4.07.2008

The Close


Markets closed mixed with the DJIA +3, NAZ -6 and SPX +2.


Strongest sectors- brokers, china, emerging markets, airlines and ags while gaming, internets, retail, tech and real estate lagged.


NYSE- 350 net winners;

NAZ- 80 net losers;

NDX -35 WINNERS;

OEX-55 WINNERS;

IBD-65 WINNERS;


VIX- flat;

Up volume about 1.5X Down;

GOLD 925;

CRUDE 109;

EURO -1.57;


Markets sold off this afternoon supposedly on the heels of the lousy guidance from ACI- I don't think so- Seems that markets were very over bought with extreme reading on RSI (2) and lots of resistance at 1380/12,700- so traders sold into the morning gap/ramp.
Support looks pretty good at 1360- so may be a nice place to reload.






Midday Ramp


Markets continue to move higher on the heels of the WM- injection and the resistance levels of 1380/12700 on the SPX/DJIA are moving into the rear view mirror. Next levels clearly the 1390/1400 area with 13K on the DJIA coming a little further north.


Strong sectors- banks, brokers, china, homies, ags, metals and steel while gaming, internets and real estate lag.


NYSE- 1050 net winners;

NAZ- 400 net winners;

NDX -60 GREEN;

OEX-75 GREEN;

IBD -85 GREEN;


VIX- down 5% and now red on the year;


Up volume 4X Down;


10 year Bond- moving up to 3.596%;


Gold- $930;

Crude-$109;


Lots of chatter on CNBC about the financials and if they have bottomed- just wonder if they will be having the same discussion when/if they make new highs. Note C in the chart above- over the SMA 50 and 40% above the recent low- GS also at $180+ off the $140 BSC lows.


RSI (2) levels hitting very over bought:


SPX 97

OEX 92

DJIA 90

MID 99

RUT 97

OIH /XLE 100

GS 90

C 89


The Open


Markets open higher with the DJIA +50, NAZ +11 and the SPX +8.


Strong sectors include china, ags, steel, oils, emerging markets and metals with gaming, internets, biotech, utils, and retail lagging.


Key stocks generally higher led by BG KLAC ISRG C NVDA BIDU DECK laggards- MGM MS PM TIF CAT IBB LVS;


NYSE- 1,000 net winners;

NAZ- 385 net winners;

NDX-55 WINNERS;

OEX-60 WINNERS;

IBD-88 WINNERS;


VIX flat;

Up volume 3X Down volume;


Markets are up but off their best levels and looks like folks want to sell the 1380/12/700 numbers on the SPX/DJIA;


Brokers such as GS started much higher but are now giving up half the gains.


Bottom line-looks like a place to look to scale out as the technicians say sell 1380- 90 SMA- and the 38.2 FIB retracement area.