weekend update

Looks like gold/oil may be at a point where they may be buyable as they are now in an area between the 50 and 61.8 FIB retracement area (78/80 area on USO). Many technicians look for pullbacks to these areas for turn around potential and it looks good to this fish.

And some long weekend links:

Nailing it;

A different take on CFC/BSC from Gretchen M;

Barron's 400 - not to great a start as it is under performing the SPX etc.

Price targets slashed for the GOOG;

How is that bailout working;

The Fast Money;

The Yield hunt;

Covered Calls;

DJIA 20K;

Biggest cities of 2025;

wacky markets

There it was, a wacky day in a wacky week in a wacky month- anyhow, DJIA +262, NAZ +48 and the SPX +31. And value stocks the big winners on the day +3%- financials probably;

Strongest sectors- brokers+8%, banks+7.5%, homies +5.5%, retail +5% and real estate +4%- losers metals, gold, ags, oil service.

NYSE/NAZ 2500 net gainers;

VIX down 11% in front of the long weekend;

Up volume 3X Down volume on a massive 2.7 B shares traded on expiration Thursday;

The brokers had a day for the ages as LEH was +15%, MS +14%, MER +13% and GS lagged +8% and almost back to the $180 level. Note for next week, SMA 50 on GS and the 38.2 FIB both at /near 181. Clearing that area and breaking the down trend will be very very bullish for the markets because as goes GS so probably goes the markets.

SPX again putting 1315 in the rear view mirror as the Costanza markets continue to confuse and confound most watchers. It would be nice if the bottom was indeed in but but but.....

Gold was down about $90 but many longer term bulls remain.

And was this the guy who started the big rally?

Another look at recent volatility.

afternoon ramp

Here we go again as the George Costanza world continue to operate on Wall Street as folks do the reverse of yesterday which was of course the reverse of the day before.

Banks(+5%) and brokers (+4.6%) leading the way with homies, insurance and retail right behind. To the red side- oils, metals, ags, defense and utils. Small cap value +2%;

Market internals rapidly improving with 1,500 net gainers between the NYSE and NAZ;

NDX -83 GREEN;

OEX-78 GREEN;

Biggest winners- MER MS S C LEH COF AXP RYAAY FMCN EXPD SHLD FAST APOL RIMM CHKP VRSN MA V DECK GE;

Biggest losers- BIDU BG APA GG XTO AA IP MMM EP HON TWX JOYG NIHD SNDK INTU SIAL MRVL AMGN;

VIX- down 9.5% at 27;

TRIN-.86

Up volume 2X down- on abut 1.5 Billion shares traded (huge expiration);

Euro starting to strengthen again vs. the $$$.

SPX again over 1,315 and am a bit more optimistic than yesterday about higher prices a week from now - although it is expiration.

technicals -crude

Crude getting rocked again by $2+ and checking the charts (click on chart) it looks like support from the trend lines should show in the $94 area. I will be looking to buy USO as it coincides with the mid 90's on the crude chart. It is doubtful that crude gets a lot more down side than those levels and I suspect our friend Boone may come out at that point and say its straight up to $130 from those levels.

Markets selling off a bit on the heels of a halt in trading on CIT- participants betting its not a positive reinforcement.

morning talk

Markets have moved higher on the heels of a better then expected report from the Philly Fed. Disaster at -25/-35 was expected on the factory index but only a lousy -17.4 was reported.

The DJIA +112, NAZ +19 and the SPX +11.5. RUT better with a 1.3% gain and MID's worse at a .4% advance.

Strongest sectors- banks (bullish words from Bove), airlines, homnies, retail, brokers and real estate while metals, ags and oils (way off the lows) lag.

Key stocks- 30/40 GREEN- leaders- V UA MER C GE MS BAC DECK NYX - losers BIDU GOOG MTW ICE IBB BG CELG MO;

NYSE- 633 net winners;

NAZ- 525 net winners;

NDX- 70 GREEN;

OEX- 72 GREEN;

VIX- down 10% in front of the long weekend;

TRIN .67;

Up volume about 2X Down;

Here we go again as SPX tries to attack 1315 yet again- and with all the brokers/banks/xchanges nicely green a successful move is probably in the cards.

Another Positive Divergence on the NH-NL list from Monday- The SPX traded down to the 1250 level and the NH-NL number hit about -1,200 according to the WSJ stats. Back on January 22, the prior SPX low at the 1270 area, the NH-NL hit almost -2,000. Just another feather for the bulls.

Finally, a nice column from Jordan Kahn at realmoney.com and why he is bullish; Crossing Wallstreet with a pretty clear picture of recent volatility; the Quant with more bull; and more Commodity stuff from BESPOKE.

Markets are set to open flat with volatility looking to be the word of the week.

Crude now trading under par at $99+ and Gold at $921, down another 8% while silver is at $17.25 - down about 15%.

The dollar- moving on up as the EURO trades at 1.54.

the close

Hard to believe but it is what it is - the DJIA closed down 294, NAZ -58 and SPX -32 all three lost more than half of yesterday's gains.RUT/MID's fell right in line. And adios to SPX 1315/1300.

Sectors- the best- airlnines, biotech, reits and drugs while metals, ags, oil service, emerging markets and semis were the worst.

NYSE- 1300 net losers;

NAZ- 1150 net losers;

NDX-25 GREEN;

OEX-20 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 16% and back at/near 30;

Volume- Down 4X up - total about 2 Billion shares;

Art Cashin- on CNBC with the explanation for the commodity implosion-

"it is the result of de-leveraging" -prime brokers that clear for and service hedge funds may have gone around and called for de-leveraging at the funds- this was equivalent of a margin call at the funds, triggering the selling."

Sounds feasible- and could also explain some of the selling of equities.

No clue for whats next- and I am sure not the only one -honest but useless.

afternoon drop

The bad news- markets moving back down as yesterday's euphoria becomes ancient history- the good news- Key SPX levels continue to hold and the financials hanging near the unchanged line. Also, RUT/MID doing a hair better than big caps.

Strongest sectors- airlines, internets, real estate and gamine while metals, ags, emerging markets and oil service continues to lag.

Key stocks- tilting to the red with V MS UA TIF KO AMZN WYNN ISRG higher and POT MER ICE NVDA NYX CME BG CAT MTW GS lower;

NYSE- 60 more winners than losers;

NAZ- 300 net losers;

NDX- 44 GREEN;

OEX- 40 GREEN;

IBD 20- all losers except for MA- biggest in the red - POT CNQ EOG GG NUE CHK NXY DVN HES APA;

Gold down 5.6% and crude- down 5%;

VIX- 27 and higher by 5%;

TRIN- 1.33;

Up volume 43% of Down volume;

BESPOKE with more on the BEAR;

At least one conservative talking head used to call him MCLAME?

And where is he now?

Curious to see if the dippers come in and buy later this afternoon and where they close- I suspect SPX support at 1315 will hold and lets see from there.

morning check

Markets are trading mixed with the SPX slightly higher while the DJIA is a hair lower on the heels of yesterday's big rip.

Strong sectors include homies, financials, utils, insurance and defense while metals, oil service, ags and emerging markets are lower.

Key stocks- about even between winners and lowers- up - MS UA MYNN C BAC LVS KO AMZN TIF BG- down- VMW POT ICE NVDA NYX GS CAT SMH BIDU CME INTC;

NYSE- 470 net winners;

NAZ- 200 net winners;

NDX- 56 WINNERS;

OEX- 50 WINNERS;

VIX- up 2.5% at 26.42;

TRIN- 1.37;

Up volume about even with Down volume;

Gold and Oil wacked pretty pretty hard;

Markets look to be acting pretty pretty well in lieu of yesterday's rip higher- the word is consolidation IMVHO- So as long as we stay above the key levels on SPX - long I shall stay.

morning stuff

Pre open futures look to open lower after the big +420 day - as MS seems to be replicating the LEH GS report from yesterday.

Through the grapevine I hear Mr. Gartman is looking to exit much of his short equity position this morning- he says:

"When the facts change, I change; What do you do, Sir? Price is the paramount "fact" in all markets, for price trumps all else... and the price is telling us that being short is wrong, and manifestly so."

Trader Mike with his take on yesterday's markets.

The Quant says things are looking good for the bulls.

BESPOKE seems to think its more short covering.

The BIG PICTURE on the BEAR.

Bonds with nothing and is anyone really unhappy about it?

And this guy on why it was all worth while?

My two cents- watching the key levels- 1,315 and 1,270 on the SPX- as long as they hold, and I expect they will, I will remain long until the markets show classic signs of over bought conditions.

the rip higher

OK Not quite a 500 point gain but I will take 420 when I am way long. The DJIA closed +420, NAZ +91 and the SPX +54. The SPX gain of 4.2% is the biggest rally since October 2002 - and check what happened in that month.

Strongest sectors- brokers, banks, homies, airlines, insurance, internets and retail while metals, utils and drugs lagged.

Key stocks - 38/40 higher led by MS GS MER C NYX DECK BAC AMZN ICE RIMM GRMN;

NYSE- 9/1 advancers/decliners;

NAZ- 3/1;

NDX- 96 GREEN;

OEX- 98 GREEN;

IBD 20- 19 GREEN;

VIX- down 20% at/near 25.9;

TRIN- .42;

Up volume 20X Down volume;

So 1,315 on the SPX in the rear view mirror again and next stop hopefully - 1,340 the next big FIB retracement.

NAZ +91 or 4.4% while the RUT was almost +5%- pretty pretty good;

GS up almost $25 and about $35 or almost 25% off of yesterday's lows- tough to comprehend but it is what it is;

Also, check the list of what could go right;

the wait

Markets continue way higher in front of the big FED announcement at 2:15. My guess is we get 75 or 100 bps cut and markets rip to a DJIA close of 500+. Of course I could be wrong and I suspect if we get less than 75 bps the markets will not like it.

Strong sectors - brokers, banks homies, retail, insurance, real estate and emerging markets- weak links - none with metals utils and ags bringing up the rear.

Key stocks- 39 out of 40 in the green with VMW, which should probably bet tossed out, red- strongest include MS GS NYX C UA ICE MER DECK BAC GRMN.

NYSE 2375 net winners;

NAZ 1400 net winners;

NDX -96 GREEN;

OEX- 97 GREEN;

IBD 20- 19 GREEN- CSX NUE RIMM RIG DVN NXY PX CHK APA ORCL XTO WFR CNQ POT EOG IBM ECA HES MA;

VIX- down 12% near the 28.5 level;

TRIN- .47;

Up volume 15X Down volume;

Next stop on SPX is the 1,315 level and if we can ramp up above there it quickly becomes support yet again. 1,340 next resistance and I don't expect Big Ben to disappoint.

Financials, pretty volatile of late, and GS out with "better than expected" numbers this morning. The most telling is the "assets under management" as the flight to quality probably solidifies GS as the go to IB for the next cycle- and a likely $300 stock price eventually- assuming the markets get their mojo back -eventually.

rippin rippin

Markets ripping higher on the heels of 1) over sold conditions- 2) GS/LEH earnings beating expectations- 3) oil and gold well off their highs.

DJIA +217, NAZ +41 SPX +27.

Strongest sectors- brokers, homies, banks, oil service, real estate and reits while metals, biotech, telecom and semis lag.

Key stocks -all 40 higher- leaders- GS MS MER NYX ICE UA DECK LVS CME GRMN;

NYSE- 2350 net winners;

NAZ -1500 net winners;

NDX- 96 WINNERS;

OEX- 97 WINNERS;

The NYSE - haven't seen this kind of adv/decl line in a long time -almost 10 up to each loser;

WINNERS- LEH CCU GS MER MS BK NYX GM FMCN YHOO FWLT GRMN MICC SPLS CTSH AMZN WFMI CSX OXY FSLR NXY STT ;

LOSERS- SMTS DLB AFAM AUY CTRP AMGN VRTX GENZ LEAP CMCSA CI IP;

Pretty pretty good as I type and just wondering if we may not be up huge by the end of the day (DJIA +500). Funny as it could happen with this (pictured) in the backdrop.

Levels to watch- SPX 1315- (support before March 6) after that 24.6 FIB at 1340.

Doug Kass with a terrific article on why we could be at an inflection point.

And Barry with some blog stats and bottoms (same on this fishy site) and why Cramer may not be the man.

closing ok

What happened in the last few minutes of trading as the DJIA went from +100 to +20? Don't know but I bet it was a better day than most expected and probably most important- we again held on to the key 1,270 level on the SPX. To quote Pisani- NO DEBACLE- well with him if the markets stay above zero - it's not so horrible.

Anyhow, the DJIA the best performing major index with the RUT/MID the worst along with small cap growth.

Sectors- drugs, telecom, utils, semi the best groups while brokers, oil service, biotech, ags, gaming and internets the worst.

NYSE - 2100 net losers;

NAZ- 1500 net losers;

NDX- 20 GREEN;

OEX- 40 GREEN;

WINNERS- JPM USB SO MRK TYC T ABT VZ JNJ LVLT GRMN SIAL MSFT XLNX VRSN INTC ALTR SPLS CNQR CCH TITN NEU CEDC WFR;

LOSERS- FCSX FMCN TTES GIGM ARD HDB BBL LEH UNH IP AES BK MS GM CCU C S MER NYX HAL GOOG APOL FWLT BIDU UAUA LEAP ADBE VRTX GENZ AKAM;

Note the action in GOOG BIDU RIMM OIH and all the refiners- ugh; And how bout GOOG being down a higher % than GS- not mentioned once on from a bubblehead;

Its now up to the brokers as they all report this week and if their earnings don't implode- we should be ok- and again the 1270 level on SPX hold yet again. PPT?

the barker

Markets continue to trade lower with the RUT/MID/NDX continuing to be the places of maximum pain.

Brokers tanking again after an initial bounce and a question for anyone about LEH. Who exactly is LEH going to attract as a customer and is anyone who is a customer contemplating transferring their business elsewhere. So my guess is they will "eventually" run in to the same issues as BSC. And where are the best customers going to land - my guess GS- and they will be the broker that picks up and grows its business over the long term.

Strongest sectors- drugs telecoms and utils while brokers, financials, oil service and airlines lag;

NYSE- 2350 net losers;

NAZ -1540 net losers;

NDX- 10 WINNERS;

OEX- 20 WINNERS;

RSI (2) levels near 10;

TRIN- 1.2

Down volume 9X Up volume;

Primarily sitting on the sidelines with a little shorting - mixed in as I suspect before too long a nice bounce will develop- not today or tomorrow but pretty pretty soon.

And finally how bout Jimmy with the video of videos linked via Adam- just love the youtube.

the chase

So just when you thought the markets were going to tumble someone is buying and a green close would not be a total shock to this fish- nor would an ugly end- for what its worth.

The DJIA lower by 100, NAZ -36 and the SPX -20. RUT/MID the wort of the major indexes and down nearly 2%.

Strongest sectors- metals, drugs, telecom, DJIA, trannies and defense while brokers, financials, airlines and gaming are the worst.

NYSE- 2300 net losers;

NAZ - 1660 net losers;

NDX - 14 GREEN;

OEX- 17 GREEN;

WINNERS- JPM WY ABT BMY JNJ MRK PEP PFE CHRW PDCO GILD BIIB CTAS FAST SIAL

CCH CNQR AUY KNDL KOP;

LOSERS- BSC FCSX FMCN EDU TKC UAUA LVLT FWLT TLAB APOL HANS WYNN HANS JNPR RYAAY LEH MER MS GS CCU BK WB AES C UNH;

SPX back over 1270 and NDX still near the 1,700 number. The DJIA acts the best in light of JPM;

Just wondering how LEH is going to make since they will have the same problem as BSC- No one will want an account there and folks with accounts there will want to transfer out- eventually folks will want to be with the best and that means the big eventual winner GS;

perspective

Just so you know, BSC with its $168 loss from the top on its 136,000,000 shares outstanding is a loss of about $22 Billion dollars. GOOG's shareholders have lost about $96 Billion of market cap in the last 4 months. Just thought it was interesting as we don't hear much about it.

TWO YES TWO

Clearly the worst of times for the BSC shareholders as the firm is sold for a about $2 or .054 73 shares of JPM. And all the shrewd investors who bought the low on Friday near $30, well not so shrewd. Joe Lewis-not so clever on this one along with many others. The value of the entire firm deemed to be less than the value of the BSC building in Manhattan which was initially thought to be $1.2 Billion. The FED also to fund up to $30 Billion of BSC's less liquid assets.

And the FED lowered the rates by a quarter point which sent the futures initially ramping higher (NQ +30/ES +21) but now down 11 on ES and down 18 on NQ.

The EURO moving dramatically higher at 1.5757 to the dollar and the USD/JPY at 98.302.

GOOD LUCK to anyone who is trying to figure out now what the markets will do tomorrow.

THE WORRY

Looks like a BSC deal is "nearly" done and apparently wall street wants it done before foreign markets open tonight. The price probably won't make many folks on the street happy as $20 a share is what is being discussed by JPM. Apparently, JPM wants some assurances that they won't lose a lot of money on the deal. Wonder if we will here from all the Hillary bashers about socialism as it relates to investment banking. I bet an investment bank bail out by the government will be ok for the Kudlow right but health insurance for sick children - forget about it.

Anyhow, lots of folks including this fish quite concerned about this juncture in the markets. Obviously the BSC deal is still a wild card but other things also out there to either make these market rip higher or cascade lower;

What can go right:

Broker numbers come in OK and the news is looked at as "not as bad a predicted."

FED cuts rates .75/1 points on Tuesday since inflation is gone in light of Friday's CPI;

FIB 61.8 retracement and prior support at 1,270 holds;

Oil and Gold pullback;

Markets at over bought levels with VIX over the magic 30 level at 31.16 and 14% above the 10 SMA.

RSI (2) levels on SPX monthly chart (2) and on the weekly chart (8)- pretty pretty oversold. And a positive MACD divergence on the weekly chart above.

MSFT/YHOO deal gets done.

Another unexpected major takeover/merger deal is announced.

And what could go wrong;

BSC is still independent Monday morning;

Another institution is deemed to have a "problem."

Markets cascade lower under the SPX 1,270 support level.

Margin selling accelerates.

Brokerage earnings are "worse than expected" as are management comment.