The DJIA defied those crummy internals and closed +121, SPX +4 and NAZ -3.
Strong sectors included gaming, real estate, financials and semis while ags, shipping, emerging markets and oils.
Looking to next week- just about everyone expecting the deal to get done this weekend.- Question is how to play and my strategy is to sell into it and then try to short it at the top (lol).
One interesting development/chart - the action in the financials (BKX)in light of all the gloom about WM / MS / LEH /GS etc - the index bottomed in the middle of July and has been a climber since - despite the talk of recession, depression etc- I guess all the deposits now heading to JPM WFC BAC USB and they are holding up the index-
The markets continue to defy the internals by hanging near the flat line or just down a bit -
NYSE- ugly at 1800 net losers;
NAZ- 1070 net losers;
NDX/OEX - about 40 GREEN on both;
VIX- higher by 7.5%;
Gold up oil down EURO up;
Still not convinced we are going to close green or flat as those internals rarely lie-
The debate on the debate ended and it looks like the experienced guy blinked yet again;
Intrade with a 66% chance on a bailout deal by Tuesday- problem is we need a deal by Sunday night.
Markets holding a bit better than expected with the DJIA -70, NAZ -34 and SPX 15.
Strong sectors -metals, drugs, biotech and gaming while ags, oils, shipping and emerging markets lag.
NYSE- 2000 net losers;
NAZ- 1200 net losers;
NDX -20 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 7%+ at near 35.2;
Down volume 3x the up;
SPX 1185 seems to be near term support and we held those levels well this morning- the issue seems to be all about the TARP- and if that gets done everything will be fine in the short term - and if not we probably crash down next week.
Not expecting these index prices to hold for long as the internals are just too crummy not to bring the markets down.
PRE MARKET LINKS
Just a few links before the market opens/crashes:
Vitaliy on five "bailout" items;
The biggest losers;
The rolling stone on Sarah;
Sarah on Sarah;
One thing I did a lot when I was back at my old CPA firm was interviewing- hate to say it but Sarah would not have gotten a second interview with those skills.
A wacky day as the markets hit their highs in the middle of the day and faded in the final two hours - although a bit of a recovery in the final fifteen minutes. ES futures still trading at a significant premium to the cash index (4+ points).
Strong sectors included emerging markets, telecom, homies and semis while metals, shipping and gaming lagged.
NYSE- 1385 net winners;
NAZ- 600 net winners;
VIX- down about 7% at/near 32.75;
Volume fairly light with advancing about 2.5 the declining;
RUT/MID s lagged the SPX/DJIA and the NAZ/NDX was relatively weak for most of the afternoon. GOOG AAPL RIMM - none closed strong.
The strategy for now- longs to be kept/purchased as long as the SPX stays above 1175 or so- under there with no more news of a bailout (old news)- the markets could sink a way down.
Finally, not sure if McCain is going to show or not - just looks a bit gimmicky- par for the McCain course.
RIMM spit the bit and now trading lower by over $13 on the day.
Markets at/near the highs led by emerging markets, banks, telecom, large value, financials and oils while metals, gaming and real estate lags.
NYSE- 1500 net winners;
NAZ- 900 net winners;
NDX- 85 GREEN;
OEX- 90 GREEN;
VIX- flat at 35 despite the 250 point gain on the DJIA;
Up volume 3X the down;
Markets doing very well as most expect the deal to be announced shortly. Santelli with an excellent observation on the SPX Futures - which are now trading at a 4 point premium to the cash index. Rick says the reason for this is that traders expect the market to rocket higher on the announcement.
Hope so as I have added to my longs QLD AAPL UYG.
Also, note the new Intrade betting odds- deal gets done by Sept 30- 85%- McCain wins election 42% and Obama wins almost 60%; finally Yankees win World Series 0%;
Markets are higher on the heels of the expected deal done on the TARP plan- IMVHO its going to be very tough for politicians to vote against it.
Strong sectors include emerging markets, retail, utils, semis, biotech and telecom while shipping and ags lag.
NYSE- 1320 net winners;
NAZ- 960 net winners;
NDX- 80 WINNERS;
OEX- 90 WINNERS;
VIX- down a hair at 35;
Up volume 3X the down;
Thoughts- not really excited to buy here as I think the short side gets more interesting a hair higher- Financials are higher but are hardly ripping on the TARP news.
Levels to watch are 1185 on the SPX- as support and 1210 as near term resistance.
GE spits the bit;
BESPOKE on the SHORT LIST;
Potential Free World leader with Katie Couric;
Tough trading for those that like to follow trends - and not so easy for those that like to fade either-
Anyhow, markets trading near the flat line overall with many more losers than winners;
Strong sectors included homies, emerging markets, telecom and oil service while ags, finanicals and real estate lagged.
VIX- flat at 35.75;
Volume- light with a little more down than up;
This type of trading is no fun for this fish and I just may take the rest of the week off from trading and just watch.
Markets are lower as participants seem to be getting nervous waiting for the uncertainty regarding the bail out plan to go away.
Best sectors- solar, energy, homies, biotech and brokers while real estate, trannies, utils and financials lag.
NYSE- 560 net losers;
NAZ- 400 net losers;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
OEX- 45 GREEN;
VIX- FLAT at 36 level;
Ten year note- 3.78%;
EURO - moving up at 1.466;
Gold - haning in at $893;
Crude- flattish at $106+;
Not much going on except NAZ outperforming as IBM is the latest company deemed a financials and added to the "do not short" list.
Tom Friedman on why we spend a lot in Iraq;
And why is it such a big deal to invest/spend $700B here when we spend so much over there?
More fodder for McCain on why he should hate the NY Times;
Finally, Fuld and his stock sales;
I suspect the markets will move up nicely (shorting opportunity) once a deal gets done.
So now we know why GS was ripping in the afternoon yesterday after selling off all morning- and note how Buffet is helping the markets now- probably keeping them from another 200 point DJIA sell down.
Anyhow, markets are trading near the unchanged line and one item of note- 1185 on the SPX seems to be support for now - so a break there could lead to lots more selling.
NYSE/NAZ flattish internals;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
VIX- slightly higher at 36.2;
NYSE volume about even between up and down;
Still expecting a rally when a deal gets done and it will get done.
The Quant on some new research;
The news for McLame;
Another day in paradise as the markets move higher early - sells off mid day as the bail out runs into roadblocks, moves higher with the T+3 short covering buy in from last Thursday and goes lower into the close.
VIX- higher by 5.5% at/near 35.75;
Looking for an entry point -probably tomorow as I expect a deal to get done before long and a market move higher on the news. Also, note the GS chart into the close- something going on as the stock was down about $6 early and closed up $3+.
Markets heading lower again on what appear to be painful hearings in the Nation's capital. Sounds like they are far away from a deal but au contraire- INTRADE says over 60% of a deal before the end of the month. Hopefully - as the market can't take much more indecision.
Anyhow, markets a bit below the flat line as I type with real estate, drugs, telecom, biotech, insurance and utils leading while metals, oils, shipping and gaming lags.
NSYE- 940 net losers;
NAZ- 525 net losers;
NDX/OEX- half in the green;
VIX- flat near 34;
Ugly action as the markets just drift lower after a nice opening- no real idea what will be the case for the afternoon but do suspect a deal gets done and the market will rally- hopefully before too long.
Finally, what does Sarah gain with this - just the slow dribble of unhelpful information.
Markets open higher as particpants are hopeful that a deal gets done soon - and the testimony begins now.
The DJIA +60, NAZ +18 and SPX +8.5.
NYSE/NAZ flat internals;
NDX/OEX- 70 GREEN on each;
VIX- down 2% at 33;
Up volume a hair above down;
Interesting stuff as the game of chicken begins- how much can congress get for their constituencies before wall street blows up?
My guess - a deal gets done soon as no one wants to be blamed for the crash of 2008!!!
Some nice links this morning:
Barry with not FOUR but THIRTEEN QUESTIONS;
Hegemony on why $700B is not enough;
Trader Mike - on the fiddy and banning selling;
No deal on wall street and down goes the market and the dollar while oil/gold/commodities soar.
The DJIA down 375, NAZ 95 and SPX 48 and back near the 1200 level.
VIX finally moved up to the 34 level - higher by 6.35%;
NYSE/NAZ 3500 net losers;
Check the action in the banks-
Pretty ugly and I guess if the stocks can't be shorted they will be sold to mitigate risk.
I suspect the boys at the FED are not going to want to see more days like this and will try to get a deal done soon - hopefully before tomorrow morning. Another day or two of action like this and prices may go much much lower.
Markets are down but off their worst levels with metals and oils leading and banks/brokers lagging.
NYSE- 1545 net red;
NAZ- 1220 net red;
NDX- 10 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
VIX- still lower by 2.5% at 31.3;
Down volume still 2X up;
SPX trading under 1235 - which looked like support and a move higher will be shorted by this fish. GOLD/SILVER/OIL looking good as the commodity trade is probably back on the table with the big bail out.
One item on Sarah not seen until a bit ago- wow what a big supporter of hurting women.
Finally, Paulson- why does the next President need him - has he really done such a fabulous job - ?And if the market tanks here does it mean traders should stock up on canned goods and hand guns?
Markets are lower this morning with the big banks taking the brunt of the hit. The DJIA -135, NAZ -30 and SPX 19.
Strong sectors- metals, EURO, ags and oil service while banks, gaming, brokers, real estate and semis lag.
NYSE- 1280 net losers;
NAZ- 960 net losers;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
VIX- down 3% at 31 area and very odd it is heading down while the market is way down;
Down volume more than 2X up;
So much for the rally as markets are tanking early- good news from GS/MS not helping and 1235 on SPX looks like next area of support- if those don't hold - could be back to 1215.
Bought some GLD this morning and will look to add as the dollar gets pounded and metals/commodities move up.
Markets look like they are set to give back lots of Friday's gains early Sunday night with the DJIA futs -200, SPX -21 and NDX -30. I suspect folks aren't happy that a deal has yet to be finalized between Treasury and Congress.
Also, not sure most folks realize the cost of the plan- $700b sounds ok but when it gets broken down - about $2,300 for each U.S. citizen and to go a step further- the debt ceiling is being upped to $11 Trillion or about $37,000 for each citizen - or over $100,000 for the average US family.
Staggering numbers especially considering every strategist involved in markets says "we have to cut taxes" in addition they say "don't have any credit card debt"- makes one go hmmmm as top executives of these financial institutions that made this mess get to keep their money and we taxpayers get stuck with the losses from their quality decisions.
And what is going to be left when we all have to pony up for the grand decisions at Ford and GM?
Some anecdotal research this weekend- out in "the hamptons" driving from Southhampton to East Hampton via Sag Harbor- just about every house we passed was for sale.
Also did some Sarah Palin research this weekend and a little surprised by her adventures in acquiring her Bachelors degree:
Hawaii Pacific College (one semester);
North Idaho (Junior) College (two semesters);
University of Idaho (two semesters);
Matanuska-Susitna College (one term);
University of Idaho (three semesters);
She started her journey in 1982 and finished in 1987 with a BS in communications-journalism - four different institutions over 6 years .
Not sure that those are characteristics of someone who I want to be a heart beat away from being the leader of the free world. A stand out student is probably a good thing for that job.