7.13.2007
QQQQ about to hit 50 as the markets were generally higher- the tech sector all over the board - AAPL AMZN GOOG and RIMM ripped higher while SMH AMAT AKAM KLAC and INTC gave back some of the recent gains. Don't tell anyone, but the NDX is now the best performing major market index (+15.6%) as it whizzed past the MID's (+15.1%).
Strong sectors included homies, oils, utilities, brokers, reits, gaming and trannies while airlines, semis and oil service lagged.
Market internals were flat on the NYSE /NAZ/ while the OEX had about 2 up to every 1 down. The NDX about 55/45 up to downs.
Winners included AA WY FDX IP GE COP RIMM PAYX WFMI AMZN AAPL VRSN AMGN BEAS and COST.
Losers- CTXS ERIC LOGI BHI GM S BDK CPA ALY MTL FCSX AMAT MSFT AKAM ICE CME NDAQ.
Volatility indexes back to the 15 level and no signals yet for selling; 2 day RSI over bought on the big cap indexes as they are at/near 90.
Any shot of merger Monday taking us higher yet?
AFTERNOON MARKETS
Markets continue to chop around the flat line with out performance by the DJIA on the heels of the GE earnings and AA news.
Strong sectors include homies (BRK.A interest), oils, brokers, gaming and large cap value while airlines, metals, tech, retail and small caps lag.
Big winners include CF BCSI SPEC VIP RIMM GOOG AAPL NFX SU SLB UA MA GS LM NYX PAYX BEAS WFMI FDX GE WY AMGN IP and HAL.
Big losers include BHI BDK AXP CTXS LOGI ERIC MICC EBAY YHOO CTSH CPA ALY FTK MTL RRST CME ICE RIG MSFT and AKAM.
Market internals continue to be bearish with a net 400 losers on the NYSE and 520 net red on the NAZ.
The OEX acts very well internally with about 55 up to 45 down while the NDX is much worse with 40 up and 60 down.
Volatility indexes flattish.
Oils a mixed bag as BHI is crushed while CAM CNQ COP HOC NFX SLB SU XOM XTO all green.
Retail acts very poorly again with COST M SHLD UA WMT green while BBY CROX CWTR CVS GES HD KSS LTD PVH TIF TGT all red.
Tech also mixed with AAPL AMZN BRCM GOOG RIMM TXN green while HHH SMH AKAM AMAT CSCO CTSH EBAY HPQ IBM INFY INTC KLAC MOT MSFT NVDA all red.
Just choppy action in the major indexes which is as expected after yesterday's huge up day.
OPENING LOOK
Markets open generally lower led down by small caps and growth stocks while the DJIA continues to out perform.
Market internals also show that the market may not rally today as the NYSE has 400 more losers than winners while the NAZ is worst at 600 net losers.
The NDX shows about 2 down for each 1 up and the OEX is about even between winners and losers.
BHI is dragging the OIH lower and is probably setting up as a buy for next week.
Banks are mixed with BAC JPM MA green while C and MTB are red.
Brokers also mixed with GS LM MER MS NMX NYX all green while BSC CME ICE NDAQ all red.
Bios primarliy red with the exception of AMGN which announced a big buyback.
Drugs all red despite an upgrade by BSC.
Oils generally higher despite the red BHI with DVN FTO HAL HOC NFX SLB SU VLO XOM and XTO all green.
Retail is awful with CROX CVS GES KSS PVH TIF UA all lower while WMT TGT SHLD M a hair green.
Tech a mixed bag with AKAM CSCO CTSH EBAY HPQ IBM INFY INTC KLAC MOT MSFT and SNDK all red while SMH AAPL AMZN GOOG RIMM TXN lightly green.
Two day RSI's in over bought territory on major indexes but not in nose bleed territory.
Bottom line, probably a choppy day as most following big trending day tend to be.
7.12.2007
THE CLOSE
Decent day on the street as the DJIA closed +286, NAZ +50 and SPX +29. And the old adage about markets that are strong all day tend to close at/near their highs, well, no better picture of that then today. And break in Larry Kudlow is bullish- yeah he was also very bullish at NAZ 5,000- very helpful.
Strong sectors included semis, banks, retail, brokers, homies, drugs and tech while gaming, airlines and biotech were green but lagged.
Banks were higher led by BAC C DFS JPM MA MTB WB WFC;
Consumers strong led by AXP GE K PG - SBUX weak;
Drugs very strong led by SGP and MRK;
Metals all higher led by BHP FCX SSRI PAAS;
Retail strong with the exception of M and CROX;
Tech strong with the exception of IBM and GOOG;
Big winners included BAM DEL C JPM MA BSC BX GS LEH MER CME ICE FAST INTC ROST CTSH SNDK ERIC VRTX PAYX AMAT BDK TGT AA AXP ATI MRK SGP HPQ CSCO CENX MTL PCR FCSX FTK and DRYS.
Big losers included MTOX SPAN EDU SIMO NTGR CPA CF HOC DWSN MNST WFMI and ERTS.
Market internals closed with 1,500 net winners on the NYSE and 1,300 net green on the NAZ.
The NDX/OEX were almost 9/1 green to red and shouted all day long that prices were going higher.
Volatility indexes - down 7% on the VIX and 10% on the VXO- and still not on sell signals as they trade only a few percent below their 10 day SMA's.
Two day RSI's on major indexes at 85 level with NDX a bit higher and RUT a little weaker.
AFTERNOON RAMP
Markets have been ramping higher since the open and higher prices into the close would not be shocking. The DJIA +201, NAZ +33 and SPX +19. Be advised the all time high on the SPX is 1,552, DJIA all time high gone around 10 am this morning, NAZ all time high, eh, forget about it.
Sub prime issues, that was Tuesday's worry. Today- nah.
Prices are being led by higher by banks, semis, brokers, retail, oils, drugs and internets; lagging are airlines and biotech.
Big winners inlcude FAST ROST INTC SNDK CTSH AMZN GRMN AA BDK AXP TGT ATI COP MRK MER MS BSC CME BOT NMX CENX FCSX MTL FTK RIO DXPE PCR HDNG BAP and DRYS.
Big losers- SPAN SIMO NTGR SPTN MTOX TYC AES GOOG S TWX MDT WFMI ERTS GENZ IGT GILD HOC VLO and NYX.
Market internals are strong with 1,275 net green on the NYSE and 1,080 net green on the NAZ.
OEX very strong with almost 9/1 up to down while the NDX is about 3/1.
Volatility indexes down about 10% and now trading at about 4% under the 10 day SMA's and may be indicating that this rally still has some juice.
The 2 day RSI numbers on the major indexes as follows:
DJIA 87
SPX 81
NDX 87
RUT 76
MID 78
Those numbers also indicating that the rally may go further as I like to see 90 before I sell. Maybe before today's closing bell.
MORNING LOOK
Markets are way up this morning on the heels of better than expected retail sales. The DJIA is +110, NAZ +17 and SPX +11. Also, note the NDX 100 hit a 52 week high as did the DJIA, just 2 days off the big sell off.
Strongest sectors include banks, retail, oils, oil service, brokers, homies and small caps; laggards include biotech and real estate.
Big winners include FAST ROST AMZN CTSH AA ATI WMT EMC TGT LTD FCSX CENX GSOL PCU CAE FTK MTL and HDNG.
Big losers include CMCO SPTN OPY WNR NTGR MDT WFMI (lol), GOOG and NYX.
Midcaps/Smallcaps both up over 1% while the hyped big caps lag at +.75%;
Banking winners inlcude MA MTB STT JPM C BAC;
Brokers/Xchanges out performing include BEN BOT CME GS MER MS NMX TROW while NDAQ/NYX are red;
Biotechs mixed with DNA the big loser;
Drugs all green as SNY and MRK lead;
Gaming led by MGM;
Media is mixed as DJ continues to sink without a deal from Rupert;
Metals all green led by BHP FCX GG GSS PAAS SSSRI;
Oils led by CVX XEC HAL PWE RIG SU;
Retail a mixed bag with BBBY CWTR GES TGT UA WMT leading and CROX LIZ M SHLD red;
Tech mainly green although GOOG MOT EBAY all red;
Volatility indexes down about 7% and heading to over sold sell territory while the 2 day RSI's on the major indexes get near the over bought 80 level.
I suspect another ramp into the afternoon and then perhaps it may be time to sell.
7.11.2007
THE CLOSE
Markets closed near the highs of the day with the DJIA regaining about half of yesterday's triple digit loss. The NAZ/SPX didn't do quite a well.
Strong sectors included trannies, drugs, biotechs, internets, consumers and large cap value while oil service, metals, reits, gaming and airlines lagged.
Winners included CME ICE NMX NYX RIMM GOOG AMZN AKAM TGT SGP AMGN CELG DNA SYK LVS CTSH BEAS SYMC CTXS JNPR BNI BDK BAX DRYS SPTN CNH MTL ELP TBSI and WBD.
Losers- MRVL INFY F INTC GM HAL COF SPAN DECK CAE FSTR DWSN SYNL FTK FCSX CPLA and TLVT.
Of note:
All the drug stocks on my screen were green led by SGP JNJ and PPH;
Biotech also all green with DNA beating estimates in the after hours- AMGN BIIB GENZ all acting well on the day;
Oil service generally down on the day as OIH DO HAL all red;
Volatility indexes down about 5% but still above 10 day SMA flat line;
As of now, the SPX seems to be contained within the 1,490 on the bottom and 1,540 on the top range. So I will be looking to sell into further strength near the top. Always.
NOON LOOK
Markets continue higher with the DJIA +56, NAZ +8 and SPX +6 as the VIX/VXO continue to give off excellent signals.
Strong sectors include trannies, drugs, defense, brokers, large cap value and big caps; lagging are metals, reits, semis, airlines and gaming.
IBD 100 winners include SPTN ICE MTL DRYS CNH CENX SNHY and NTGR; the losers SPAN DWSN CAE BWLD FTK and FSTR;
Market internals are green on the NYSE /NAZ and very green on the NDX/OEX- NDX with 75/25 and OEX about 66/33 up to down;
Volatility indexes about 3% lower but still relatively elevated;
Brokers generally higher with MER MS BSC up and GS red; big banks are generally fractionally higher;
Xchanges act great with BOT CME ICE NMX NYX all nicely higher;
Oils a mixed bag with service under performing;
Tech also mixed with HHH XLK AAPL AKAM AMAT AMZN BRCM CSCO CTSH EBAY HPQ IBM MOT MSFT RIMM SNDK higher and SMH GOOG INFY INTC KLAC NVDA TXN YHOO all lower;
MORNING LOOK
Markets trade higher led by trannies, drugs and defense while oils, real estate, brokers and airlines lag.
Big winners include S WFMI MICC GRMN ATI AA COP BDK SPTN DRYS MTL BTJ TEX WBD CNH NYX NMX CME ICE BOT and SNHY.
Big losers include BSC GS LEH LM MER MS FTK SPAN DWSN CAE BWLD BHI COF AIG MS GS INFY RIMM SHLD and KLAC.
Market internals are flat on the NYSE/NAZ while the OEX/NDX group are better at 3/2 winners to losers.
Volatility indexes about flat and in over bought buy territory.
Value and small caps are again under performing while brokers are getting slammed;
Tech also not performing well as AMAT CTSH INFY INTC KLAC NVDA RIMM TXN YHOO all lower;
Rate on the 10 year at 5.04% and may give some jig to equities as they seem to have stabilized lower;
7.10.2007
THE CLOSE
Markets closed at/near the lows as sub prime slime and crummy retail sales bothered the markets.
The brokers/financials were the primary area of attack as BSC BX GS LEH LM MER MS BOT CME ICE NMX BAC C CFC JPM MA MTB WB WFC were all lots lower.
Consumers, defense, drugs, gaming, insurance, real estate and retail also closed ugly while oils and metals escaped much of the damage.
If you wish to buy weakness, today was the day and probably tomorrow too as the weakness will probably last into the morning trade.
The VIX/VXO tandem up close to 20% and now trading over the 10% above the 10 day SMA level and in a general buy area for the major indexes.
The 2 day RSI levels on the major indexes:
SPX 12 and under the 50 day SMA;
OEX 13 above the 50 day SMA;
DJIA 20
MID 15
RUT 10 and still above the 50 day SMA;
NDX 25 well above the 50 day SMA;
COMPX 20 well above the 50 day SMA;
Rates have fallen to the 5.03% level on the 10 year and may be back on the radar quickly as a reason to buy equities;
So not bad as the fear ramps up on CNBC as the sub prime slime dominates the talk on bubble vision.
My take, buy the NDX as tech has been strong and will probably be the place when the crowd decides to buy higher.
DIPPING?
Markets are selling off on the heels of poor retail sales numbers from HD and SHLD, more sub prime issues and the Bernanke speech.
How oversold?
The VIX/VXO combo are about 6% above their 10 day SMA's and the 2 day RSI readings on the major indexes sit at/near the 15/20 level. So not quite at buy signals but close and maybe worth a dip on the NDX. The NDX is now my index of choice as it has made 52 week highs and has been the strongest index of late as tech has done well on the heels of AAPL/GOOG/RIMM/INTC and the semis.
AFTERNOON LULL
Markets seem to be stuck without much movement into the afternoon but there is some interesting sector action.
First, big caps over small and growth over value.
Banks and brokers, not a green stock to be found as C JPM MTB WB WFC XLF IAI BSC BX GS LEH LM MER MS BOT CME ICE NMX all lower- NYX still green.
Technology- a mixed bag with some strength in the semi group led by KLAC INTC NVDA TXN and BRCM. AAPL GOOG AKAM HPQ SNDK YHOO all green while RIMM MSFT MOT INFY IBM CTSH EBAY CSCO AMZN AMAT XLK all red.
Retail, real estate, gaming, drugs, defense/aero, and consumers all enduring big losses on the day.
Volatility indexes higher by about 6% and near their recent mid point lines and short term moving averages.
IBD 100 stocks not signalling any under the surface buying today as the internals there are 3/1 losers to winners with ALY CAE BIDU TLVT and HURC green and TBSI MTOX SYNL RRST PCLN and CPLA the biggest losers.
I intend to buy more ITA as this sector/ETF continues to act well and dip buyers have been nicely rewarded in the past.
MORNING LOOK
Markets trade lower but have com way off their session lows and some strength can be found in the metals, semi and oil space. Worst sectors include homies, real estate, retail, brokers and gaming.
Big winners include GM COP AKAM MRVL NTAP AAPL ATVI SNDK BIDU CAE ALY DWSN WNR and DRC;
Big losers include TBSI MTOX SPAN ACH MTL TEX LEH COF NSC AXP TGT DOW SHLD SYMC UAUA and WYNN;
The 10 year Bond rate is down to 5.07% and continues to back off the recent high near 5.31%;
Still green on CROX AKAM GOOG OIH XLE TSO VLO HOC FT CAM KLAC NVDA SNDK FCX SSRI PAAS GSS GLD GDX - a pretty good tell of where the market strength can be found;
Market internals are bearish with a net 1,275 losers on the NYSE and 1,100 net losers on the NAZ.
The OEX is 3/1 loser to winner while the NDX is better at 3/2 downs to ups;
Volatility indexes are bouncing about 6% and now trade a bit above their 10 day SMA's.
7.09.2007
THE CLOSE
Markets closed higher although off their highest levels of the day led by metals, large caps, oils, internets, semis, trannies and airlines while homies, banks, retail, brokers, reits and drugs lagged.
Big winners included CROX PCAR AMZN EXPD SNDK INFY NVDA FDX COP CSC CVX AA TEX SIMO TBSI GME TLVT MTL NTGR SPAN AFSI HDNG and TWIN.
Big losers included BTJ WBD NVEC TTEC BIDU FLIR HURN RRST XMSR S GENZ NIHD BEAS LINTA TYC LTD TGT HPQ AEP and ORCL.
Market internals closed flat on the NYSE/NAZ/NDX/OES;
Volatility indexes a bit higher as the VIX breaks above 15 while the VXO hovers near 14.4. Both trade 5/7% below their respective 10 day SMA's.
Banks were weak all day and probably a big reason why we could not close with a rally- BAC C JPM MA MTB STT WB WFC all lower;
Also weak were drugs, with all the majors lower except JNJ;
Metals strong all day led by BHP GG PAAS SSRIL
Oils also strong with the exception of oil service where the OIH etf closed red- Higher were APC CNQ COP CVX DVN FTO HOC NFX VLO XOM and XTO;
Retail lower with the exceptions of CROX UA and WMT while TGT TIF SHLD LTD and GES gave back recent gains;
Tech also a mixed bag internets and semis higher while AAPL AKAM HPQ RIMM and TXN were lower;
The up and down volume were about equal while the TRIN closed at 1.13-
I expect more choppy trading unless the earnings news comes in far above or below consensus.
AFTERNOON LOOK
Markets have flipped back to green on the heels of lower oil with metals, big caps, semis, trannies, def/aero, internets, oils and tech leading the way higher while homies, banks, brokers, retail and airlines continue to struggle.
Big winners include CROX TEX SIMO BTJ NTGR HDNG AFSI TWIN FDX CAT NSC CSC GM PCAR SNDK AMZN EXPD NFDA and INFY.
Big losers - XMSR NIHD VRTX AAPL PETM ERTS S TYC LTD TGT S ORCL XRX WBD FLIR NVEC TTEC CTRP RRST HURN and CAE.
Of note:
Banks still trade heavy with BAC C MA MTB STT WB WFC all red;
Brokers also lower with BOT BSC CME LEH LM MS NMX lower and BEN GS ICE MER NDAQ NYX higher;
Drugs lower with the exception of JNJ (10 B buyback);
Gaming lower but improving;
Oils improving with oil service under performing;
Real estate/reits - lower with the exception of BAM;
Retail generally lower with CROX UA WMT green;
Tech a mixed bag with HHH SMH AMAT AMZN BRCM CTSH GOOG INFY INTC KLAC MOT SNDK TXN YHOO all higher while AAPL AKAM HPQ MSFT RIMM lower;
Market internals still flat on the NYSE/NAZ while a little better than flat on the OEX;
IBD 100 internals continue to act very well with 63 up and 37 down;
So probably a slow drift higher into the close and maybe a sell off later in the week as the markets continue to trade in over bought territory.
MORNING MARKETS
Markets trade mixed led by metals, semis, trannies, internets, oils and utilities while retail, real estate, gaming, financials and drugs lag.
Of note:
Big caps beating small;
Financials weak with BAC JPM MA MTB WFC all red;
Brokers/Xchanges generally green led by BOT CME ICE MER GS NYX;
Consumers generally green led by DEO KMB MO;
Def/Aero acting well as ITA trades at a new 52 week high;
Drugs all red led lower by AZN MRK SGP;
Gaming all red led lower by WMS MGM BYD;
Metals all green with BHP FCX GG GSS PAAS SSRI all acting very well;
Oils have turned mixed with DVN FTO HOC NFX PWE VLO XEC XTO all good and PXD SLB RIG DO CAM OIH all red- oils over oil service;
Retail generally red with the exception of CROX HD and WMT;
Tech is mixed with AMZN CTSH GOOG INFY KLAC NVDA SNDK green and RIMM IBM MSFT AKAM AAPL all red;
Market internals are mixed with the NYSE a bit better than the NAZ - OEX about even between winners and losers and the NDX with almost 2 down for every 1 up;
Volatility indexes higher but still under the 10 day SMA's.
Interest rates down 5 bps on the 10 year to 5.149;
The markets are overbought as we haven't had a down day in a while and 2 day RSI readings on major indexes all show over bought areas. My strategy - buy the dips as it has worked for a while and suspect lots of folks are waiting for lower prices to buy.
7.08.2007
SLOW WEEKEND
Barrons was bullish this weekend on ITW GILD FDX and had bearish comments on the sub prime mess. And it looks like the DJ board is trying to get a higher price from Rupert as they attempt again to find other bidders.
Some interesting companies working their way up the IBD 100 list. For instance:
5- BIDU
6- DECK
9- AAPL
10- POT
11- RIMM
18- GES
28- NOV
46- ICE
62- HOC
66- BHP
73- MTW
90- BID