4.27.2007

THE CLOSE


There it is, another week punched and another DJIA record, although a predicted choppy day with an upside bias despite the red internals.


Strong stuff included MSFT, oils, silvers, AMGN, AAPL, defense, brokers, metals, biotechs and growth stocks. Weak links - airlines, gaming, semis, trannies, small caps, retail, utilities and drugs.


IBD 100 winners inlcuded VSEA NTGR MFW FLIR MTOX EDU NOV DECK MTW and PRFT -while ROCM WFR DXPE GROW WCG BTJ and SIMO tanked.


Market internals were weak all day despite the green major indexes as the NYSE closed with 440 net red and the NAZ closed with 680 net red.


The OEX closed with 3 up to 7 down and the NDX with 2 up to 3 down.


VIX/VXO indexes dripped a bit lower and now trading at their 10 day SMA's. Even the experts can't seem to figure out why the vol indexes don't drop further on the drift up in the major market indexes so I won't try.


The only thing that is clear is there is demand for equities and every dip gets bought. Witness today's crummy GDP/Inflation numbers, who cares, they are down buy em. Next week, probably merger Monday or just normal Tuesday has them higher again. As I have said, I am holding some index futures for the next run to the next talked about new record, SPX 1,525.









CRUDE KING


Hard to believe the DJIA/NAZ/SPX could be higher when crude is up another buck and trading at 66+. The RUT and the MID are under performing again as they are red while the big cappers are green.


Strong sectors include oils, silvers, defense, software, brokers and growth stocks. Oddly enough, small cap growth is out performing large cap growth as I type. Losing groups include airlines, gaming, semis, homies, trannies and biotechs.


Key stocks are mixed once again with GS MSFT MS BSC CME NYX MA SLG AMGN TXT ang GE all green while losers include MER LEH BOT ICE JPM C GOOG RIMM and INTC.


Market internals continue to trade red with the NYSE at red 480 and the NAZ at rd 600.


The OEX/NDX both trade with 2 up to every 3 down.


Volatility indexes - FLAT. Still trading above their respective SMA's as the chatter continues to be that folks are buying options for "protection."


I continue to think the markets are going higher and will probably challenge the old SPX "closing" highs at the 1,528 area. Remember the all time high was near 1,560 on March 14, 2000.


Also, congrats to all the OIH longs as the etf now trades over $160 and up $3 on the day. A very very strong sector and now up 15% on the year, about triple the SPX/RUT for 2007.


MIXED OPEN


Markets are chopping around once again as the futures sold in the pre market on the heels of crummy news on GDP/Inflation.


Strong sectors include silver stocks, metals, defense, large cap growth and internets. Leading lower are airlines, homies, gaming, semis, small caps, trannies, oils and retail.


Strong stocks include MSFT BAM BIDU GE CME NYX and EBAY. Lower are GS MER BSC BOT ICE VLO RIMM TIF KSS IBN and AMZN.


Market internals are weak with about 1,000 green and 1,880 red on the NYSE and 1,050 green and 1,675 red on the NAZ.


The OEX is about 3 up to 7 down while the NDX is 4 up to 6 down.


Biggest winners include FLEX MCHP MSFT SIRI MNST PCAR GE MMM CAT and ORCL.


Biggest losers IP FDX EP COP GM SO BRCM AMZN UAUA MRVL XLNX and SNDK.


Volatility indexes slightly higher and still trading above their respective 10 day SMA's.


I would not be looking to sell here as I expect more good news next week and higher prices. Hey, its a bull market and fighting it hasn't really been a great trade.

4.26.2007

CLOSING THOUGHTS


Markets chopped around most of the day but generally closed in the green with the NAZ and the RUT leading while the OEX/SPX lagged.


Strong sectors included internets, homies, semis, oils service, tech, small caps and small cap growth. Lagging were silvers, metals, trannies, airlines, defense, utilities, real estate and banks.


Market internals were also mixed with a net 250 red on the NYSE and net 115 red on the NAZ.


The NDX/OEXSPX were all about 45/55 green to red.


Big winners on the day included JOE SWS AMGN PFE MGM BIDU KLAC AAPL GOOG VLO TSO AMZN CHKP SEPR MSFT TEVA and FLEX.


Biggest losers LVLT AKAM SNDK ERIC BRCM FISV EXPD CMCSA NSC RTN SLE LTD MO and UPS.


The VIX/VXO tandem are trading in the upper 12 range and have not hit a sell signal yet. If one remembers the old lows on the VIX were somewhere near the 9.5 levels. Not sure why its a lot higher with the market higher but it will be interesting.


Final thought- There is a lot of yap about the SPX and its highs that it hit back in 2000. To set the record straight, the SPX closed at 1527.57 on March 24, 2000 but hit a high of 1552.87 during the day (the good old days).


My thought, just like the DJIA, I assume its a good bet we take out the closing highs during the next several weeks if not sooner so if you want to buy some Futures (YM ES NQ) and hold out for a new high it is probably a good trade. Only thing, wide stops and smaller positions as there is still a ways to go to hit the target.




CHOP CHOP


Markets trade mixed near the open but the internals are telling a bit of a different story. The DJIA FLAT, NAZ FLAT and SPX -3.


Market internals are very weak with net 775 red on the NYSE and net 650 red on the NAZ.


The OEX /NDX /SPX all about 2/1 red.


Strong sectors include homies, internets airlines and real estate while the weakest links include metals, silvers, trannies, biotechs, brokers, xchanges, financials and retail.


Green stocks include F MMM EXC AMGN CHKP AAPL XMSR XLNX NIHD JNPR AMZN MA BIDU KLAC MSFT GOOG GE VLO and BIIB.


Red stocks inlcude GS MS MER LEH BSC CME ICE NYX KSS SYK BYD UPS EWA LVLT AKAM FISV AMAT BMY NSC BUD LTD and DOW.


Volatility indexes lifting a bit but still no great action.


My take on the day, probably a bit higher into the close but mostly chop for the day as the general rule is that days after big trend days are quiet as profit takers and momo players duke it out.



TURNING WORM?


After years of getting it wrong with their constant yapping about "buy large caps," the talking heads on CNBC etc. may finally be getting it right.

For this quarter (25 days) the DJIA is +6%, the OEX +5.3% and the SPX +5.2% vs. a RUT2K gain of 3.9% and a MID Cap gain of 4.7%. Large Cap Growth also outperforming with a 5% gain vs. a Small Cap Growth gain of 4.5%; Large Cap Value also winning with a 5.3% gain vs. 3.9% for Small Cap Value.


Tech is also doing well with the NDX and Naz Comp both coming in at +6% while the MSH is +7.6%.


The hardest fact to believe (lol) is in the oil patch as the XOI comes in at +8.7%, the OIH +7.7% and the XLE at +6.4%. Someone please send a note to the talking heads, the oil patch stocks are outdoing all the major averages even as the DJIA makes all time/7 year highs.


Year to date:


RUT2K +5.4%


Mid Caps- +10.4%


SPX +5.4%


OEX +3.6%


NAZ COMPQ +5.5%


OIH +12.4%


XLE +9.4%


GS +13.2%


GOOG +3.8%


BANK BKX (RED)


XAL -9%


Trannies +15%


Who would have thought that the financials could be red while the DJIA was at a new all time high or the trannies and the oil patch would be moving higher in tandem. Markets do what they do regardless of the talking heads or the conventional wisdom.


4.25.2007

PLEASANT CRUDE


Not much left to say except DJIA 13K is in the rear view mirror (for now) and AAPL is trading up to over par on the heels of a well received earnings report.


The small caps lagged all day and finished up .7% compared to a 1% gain on the DJIA and the OEX/SPX.


Crude also ended up 2% so all the talking heads looking for the markets to be up when crude is down and vice versa ought to check the charts as nothing is further from the truth. The OIH was up over 3% and the XLE about 2% on the day.


Strong sectors besides oil included tech, trannies, silvers, EWA (buy each and every dip), brokers, semis, large cap value, defense and financials. Small caps and reits/real estate lagged.


GS JPM SGP MRK and MS hit new highs while PG MMM KO BUD ATI BNI GD AKAM and SUNW were all lower.


Market internals were strong with net 1,400 green on the NYSE and net 570 green on the NAZ.


About 9/1 up to down on the OEX and 8/2 green on the NDX.


Surprisingly, the Volatility indexes did not budge and still trade above their respective 10 day SMA's. However, the 2 day RSI's on the SPX/DJIA is back near the 95 level and I don't expect much upside for the balance of the week. Typically, the day after a trend day is choppy so it may be time to book some profits as we will eventually get some news that drives the markets lower.

MIDDAY RAMP


Looks like the buy the morning dip call turned out ok as we are over 13K again. The DJIA is +60, NAZ +12 and SPX +7.5. The midcaps have caught up but the RUT is still under performing.


Strong sectors include oils, trannies, internets, silver stocks, EWA, tech, retail, defense, utilities and large cap value; leading lower are airlines, gaming and real estate.


Brokers and xchanges are mixed with GS and MS a bit higher while ICE CME and BOT are all lower. Large and small cap Value is beating Growth yet again despite the cheer leading by market strategists. I suppose this will change but its not happening today.


Big winners include AA BHI BDK EP COF SLB CVX HIG AMZN CHRW EXPD GRMN TLAB DISCA SIRI and RIMM.


Downers include SUNW CKFR UAUA MNST PCAR MRVL ATI BUD GD BNI LEH MMM SLE and UTX.


The IBD 100 shows 2 up to every 1 down with DXPE BTJ MTOX SCHN CLB IMKTA HWCC and DWSN up while EML PNSN UCTT SYNL JST HURN and GES are lower.


Market internals are bullish overall with the NYSE net 970 green and the NAZ net 430 higher.


The OEX remains the strongest with 75 up and 25 down while the NDX is about 3/2 up to down.


The OIH looks to be breaking higher as it trades near $156 as the $150 mark has proven to be a good support number (prior resistance).


Yesterday I bought more EWA and that is working and today I bought some FCX / BIIB sold IBN / SYK.


13,036 DJIA


So DJIA 13,036 came and went fairly quickly and now we wait to see if it reappears later in the day. I suspect it will as the NYSE/OEX market internals continue to trade bullish while the NAZ/NDX internals are not so good as the semis/MSFT/KLAC trade pinkish.


Strong sectors include trannies, oils, internets, silvers, tech, retail, brokers, utilities and financials while airlines, biotechs and semis trade lower.


Key stocks trade higher led by GS BSC JPM C GOOG AAPL RIMM JNJ UPS AMZN and ITA.

Lower equities include SYK LVS GILD SGP MSFT KLAC BAC MER and CME.


Big winners include AMZN CHRW EXPD MICC TLAB RIMM AA T IBM BHI HIG COF LTD EMC BDK RTN IP and PEP.


Biggest losers include BNI ATI NSC CL PFE GD SLE SUNW CKFR NIHD MNST UAUA SIRI and BIIB.


Market internals are getting worse as I type with the NYSE net green by 940 and the NAZ green by 300. The OEX probably the best "tell" of all has 75 up and 25 down while the NDX has flat internals.


Volatility indexes mainly flat.


The mids/iwm continue to lag but I suspect a ramp into the end of the day and a close near the highs.





OLD TIMERS NIGHT


Stock futures markets are higher this AM on the heels of some good earnings news from AMZN and higher overseas markets. The FTSE is +.5%, the DAZ + .6% and the CAC +.8%.

Crude and precious metals also higher this morning, so also look for a recovery in the EWA as metals and financials make up a good chunk of the Aussie ETF.

And in last nights Geritol bowl, David Wells beat up on Randy Johnson as the former Cy Young winner continued his Yankee way allowing six runs, walking four and striking out seven in five innings. Not sure why the D Backs wanted Randy, didn't their scouts see him pitch in the Bronx the past two years? He was bringing it at 91/92 mph last night and at the velocity Randy is average at best and will give up plenty of round trippers.

4.24.2007

CLOSING GREEN


So we didn't quite make it to DJIA 13K as we stalled at 12,989.69, eh close enough considering the morning dip so anyone who did buy the AM dip should have made some money.


I suspect that we will break through 13K shortly and it will set off some stops which should take us a bit higher which may be a good place for a short term sell/top.


Strong sectors today included semis, tech, utilities, internets, large cap growth, software and drugs. Leading lower were silver stocks, metals, brokers, xchanges, reits, real estate and trannies.


Market internals climbed most of the day but didn't quite make it to flat as the NYSE closed red 480 while the NAZ was a bit better at red 380.


The OEX/NDX closed with about as many winners as losers after starting the day decidedly red. The SPX not as good with 2/3 up to down.


Winners included PCAR ESRX ALTR CDWC SNDK NVDA QCOM BRCM LTD TXN NSM IBM HON and COF.


Losers- TGT BNI AMGN LEH RTN HAL T EP MICC MNST SEPR CHRW and INTU,


IBD winners - SYNL JST AXE DXPE MTOX CNH ROCM EML GMR and SIMO.


IBD 100 was 35 up and 65 down.


Volatility indexes fought back to the flat line after rising to overbought levels on the morning dip.


Tech / semis may lead as folks may get excited about the TXN numbers and the NAZ has underperformed the midcaps/smallcaps. Note today both are red with the DJIA green (IBM and HON) .


Lots of earnings tonite and tomorrow before the open but watch the overseas indexes as I suspect they will rally which could cause a nice rally here.
And finally, Randy Vs. David Wells tonight in Phoenix. Should be a fun watch.

13,000 HERE WE COME


There you have it- demand for equities trumps all indicators/gurus etc. The DJIA is +50, NAZ +5 and SPX +1 as I type after swooning early in the day on the heels of crummy housing numbers.


Strong sectors - semis, tech, utilities, internets, large cap growth and small cap value; leading lower are silver stocks (opportunity to buy), metals, gaming, EWA, brokers, defense, homies, biotech, retail and real estate.


Key stocks are mainly lower with green to be seen on INTC MSFT KLAC TXN NDAQ BSC MS BAC SGP YHOO EBAY and GILD. Red stocks include GS C JPM MA WFC MER LEH BOT CME ICE NYX GE AMGN and DNA.


Market internals have rebounded but are still red with a net of 500 red on NYSE and net 260 red on the NAZ. The NDX/OEX have climbed back to flat internals while the SPX is still a bit red.


Volatility indexes coming back down after getting very close to buy signals this AM on the housing numbers.


The DJIA is now 30 points away from the magic 13k number and not sure when but I am betting it won't be long. Today would not be surprising as semis and tech are leading and that is a good sign and they just may drag the markets right to the CNBC objective.

HOUSING CRISIS


The markets did not greet the existing home sales news well and have since sold off as the NAZ is down 12, SPX -6 and the DJIA -7 helped by IBM, which is up almost 4 or responsible for 30 positive DJIA points.


Strongest sectors include semis and tech with most other sectors in the red; leading lower are airlines, brokers, homies, real estate, retail, trannies and silver stocks.


Key stocks are generally red with MA GS MER BSC CME acting worst with SGP SYK CNI and BIDU green.


Market internals are pretty ugly with 1,000 net red issues on both the NYSE and the NAZ.


The SPX/OEX/NDX all with about 3 down issues for every 1 up.


Big winners include PCAR ESRX ALTR CDWC XLNX DISCA SNDK NVDA IBM HON TXN LTD COF DD and S.


Biggest losers include GS TGT BNI LEH ATI CSCO T MER WB JNPR TLAB SEPR MICC UAUA CHRW and VRTX.


The IBD 100 paints a similar picture with 4 down to each 1 up with strong performances from AXE JST HDNG CNH HRT SYNL DXPE SNHY UUU MFW and CLB.


I suspect a ramp later in the day in spite of the crummy financials/internals. Just seems like most folks like to buy dips and its dipping. Oh and did I mention the Volatility indexes are getting close to buys signals as they trade about 8% above their respective 10 day SMA's.




THE FORGOTTEN


Not a particularly good 24 hours or so as nine more troops die in the surge in Iraq, David Halberstam dies in a car accident and the yanks lose their 4th in a row despite AROD hitting 2 more dingers, 13 and 14 on the year. Oh, and did I mention the answer to Baroid Bonds and his steroided head; yes probably a short term problem as he will be quickly forgotten and a blip on the baseball radar as AROD now has 478 lifetime homers and turns 32 in July. So another 8 years at 40 per gets him to 800 and I presume/hope he leaves the king of steroids in the dust.


The markets are looking for a higher open with great news from TXN leading the NDX futures /semi patch higher.


Markets continue to be overbought but buying dips has been the winning trade since October 2002 and I doubt that changes today. I also think the DJIA 13K is a slam dunk just don't know if it will be this week or next.




4.23.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets sold off in the afternoon on the heels of news out of GM that the mortgage market may impact auto sales. To quote Lutz, "mortgage industry meltdown" has reduced affordability of U.S. auto buyer.


Strong sectors included oils, biotech, reits, utilities and brokers while airlines, xchanges, drugs, homies and gaming brought up the rear.


Market internals generally flattish with the NYSE a bit better than the NAZ while the NDX had better internals than both the OEX/SPX.


Winners included JOYG MEDI BIIB WFMI AKAM PCAR JNPR AAPL MICC ROK WMB ATI GS and F.


Losers- COF XRX GM PFE S CSCO WMT BNI ABT SIRI MRVL UAUA XMSR IACI TEVA and BEAS.


Volatility indexes closed up about 6% and now trade about 5% above their respective SMA's. It is surprising to see them so high relative to the SMA in light of the recent strong performance of the markets. The 2 day RSI's on the SPX/DJIA stands near the 70 level so apparently not a particularly good time to buy yet. I suspect a sell off into midweek but markets are strong as demand for equities trumps all other indicators.


VLO back up near 70 and up almost 35% on the year and NYX, Cramer's favorite growth stock down about 6.6% on the day and red about 12% on the year. Haven't followed Cramer lately so don't know if he pulled the plug or its a "never mind." Its also a good thing that CNBC never discusses his Mad Money performance.






MIXED MIXED


The word of the day seems to be DULL as the markets oscillate between green and red. I suspect we close in the green as that always seems to be a good bet of late.


Strong sectors include oils, biotechs, reits, utilities, internets, brokers small cap growth and defense while airlines, tech, retail, banks, semis and drugs lag.


Market internals continue mixed with the NYSE slighlty green and the NAZ red.


Key stocks are generally mixed with MA GS MS LEH BSC NDAQ VLO PXD FTO MO BIDU RIMM AAPL GOOG and PVH all higher while BAM MER SWS BOT CME ICE GE CSCO KLAC MSFT and INTC are all red.


IBD stocks continue to outperform with about 75% higher with big gains from MTOX CNH SIMO CYNO and JST.


The OEX/SPX/NDX internals are all near the flat line.


The VIX/VXO are higher by 5% while the TRIN sits at a bearish 1.12 and the up/down volume is about even.


Again, I expect a ramp higher later in the day as that has been the money trade of late.

MIXED OPEN


Markets open mixed with a bullish bias I suspect.


Strong sectors include biotechs, reits, oils, utilities, gaming and brokers while wintel, drugs, semis, airlines, retail and banks lag.


Key stocks mixed withe AAPL GS RIMM BSC NDAQ higher while BIDU CSCO INTC GOOG TGT KSS C JPM MA BAC all lower.


Market internals show 500 net green on the NYSE and flat on the NAZ.


The OEX/SPX internals show a few more winners than losers while the NDX shows more losers than winners.


The IBD 100 is the place to be with about 75 winners to 25 losers with the big gainers being MTOX CNH ROCM CYNO RS UCTT GES and SYNL - losers DXPE UUU CTCM NTGR HRT BLUD and COH.