THE CLOSE

Markets close at the lows and I doubt the folks running the government are very happy. Only thing left to do is lower rates and would anyone be surprised by a rate cut on Monday? After that - out of ammo.

Strong sectors- metals, internets and telecom while gaming, homies, real estate, banks and small caps lagged.

NYSE/NAZ 2200 net losers;

WINNERS- HANS FWLT BIIB YHOO GILD ISRG ORCL MSFT RF HIG CI MS TXN COV;

LOSERS- C NYX S JPM XRX F CBS AES SNDK FLEX AMLN VMED GRMN LRCX INTU;

SPX seems to have hit a temporary stopping point of 1100- as Monday's open will be pretty interesting since we don't have the "bailout" package anticipation.

Are all the weak holders out- that was probably anticipated hundreds of SPX points ago.

Small caps just act horribly in relation to the rest of the market and that is not a good thing.

Seems like we are in pretty historic times as blood continue to flood the street but the day after always seems worse.

AFTERNOON CHA CHA

That was fun as the markets had something in the last few hours for the longs and the shorts. Currently (meaningless) the DJIA +85, NAZ +21 and SPX +14.





Strong sectors- ags, oils and metals while gaming, real estate, homies and retail lag.





NYSE- 760 net winners;


NAZ- flat internals;





VIX- flattish at 44;





Well the deal has passed and the markets are a tad skeptical as they have given back about 40 on the NAZ and 200+ on the DJIA.





Days like this - if you wish to trade - smaller positions and wider stops- very wide.

Also, check the action in Las Vegas- those companies trading like Vegas going belly up.

Next week the fun begins again and I suspect the markets will rally as they are still way oversold and about 10% below the SMA 10- just have to be quick and long term investing- dead gone dead for now.

MORNING JIG

Markets are higher on the heels of the oversold condition from yesterday, a "better than expected" jobs number and a hope that the recovery package gets passed this afternoon.

Strong sectors- ags, metals, energy, trannies and semis while gaming, retail, real estate, drugs and tech lags.

NYSE- 1540 net winners;

NAZ- 1000 net winners;

NDX/OEX- 85 WINNERS on each;

VIX- down a mere 5% at 43;

Up volume 4X the down;

Energy is having a nice bounce and a long in DIG maybe a good play while the financials are green they aren't doing as well as one would expect with C JPM USB all red.

Markets are solidly green but just feels like its not going to last that long.

PRE DEBATE LINKS

Good News- a couple of hours before the debate and the SP futures are trading about 6 points above fair value while the DJIA futs are about 70 above.

Anyhow:

BESPOKE on the good fortune of being added to the SP 500;

NY Times on how the "bailout" has impacted the race;

The McCain fate;

Mort on the right way to bail em out;

Pundits predictions;

The Political Wire;

THE LOWS

Sorry for the lack of posts - too busy shorting covering and reshorting as the day gave many opportunities- QID TWM DXD etc.

It was an awful day but I suspect we are again nearing a short term bottom- after all how many -4%/5% days can one have.

The worst sectors included metals, ags, gaming, oils, trannies and real estate while drugs telecom and utils closed down the least.

NYSE -2150 net losers;

NAZ- 1830 net losers;

NDX- 5 GREEN;

OEX- 10 GREEN;

VIX- 45.25 and 13.7% higher - also about 20% above the SMA 10;

Volume was fairly light with Down volume about 8X the up;

The places to hide today- consumer non-durables such as CLX HNZ K KFT KMB PG ABT;

FWIW - the SPX is again about 10% below its SMA 50 and the adv/decl lines are very oversold so a bounce from these levels is very likely. The last times the SPX was this far stretched from the SMA 50- Jan 22, July 15, Sept 17 - usually followed by a bounce of about 75 points over the next week or so.

RSI (2) levels:

SPX -17

DJIA -23

NAZ -17

NDX -18

RUT -12

MID-13

THE OPEN

Markets are way lower with the RUT/NAZ leading the way.

Strong sectors include telecom, drugs, banks and biotech while oils, ags, gaming, metals and emerging markets lag.

NYSE- 1640 net losers;

NAZ- 900 net losers;

NDX- 5 GREEN;

OEX- 20 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 7% at 42.5;

Down volume 4X the up;

EURO- 1.38;

GOLD- 857;

CRUDE- $96;

Read somewhere that we are seeing massive selling by the public and all the technicals /sentiment are meaningless - probably true and the places to short on pullups are the NAZ/RUT and the places to buy on the dips are financials UYG /XLF.

Morning links:

Roger's thoughts;

More Sarah;

McMansion;

Conners trading;

THE CHARTS

Curious about the recent action in the exchange stocks such as CME is +43% above the recent low, NYX +28% and NDAQ +41%. IAI also up about 30% from its low hit on September 20. Just wondering if something is going on or just more noise?

Didn't take long for Sarah Palin to forget Exxon Valdez or Bush v. Gore- see the video as she couldn't name any other supreme court case besides Rowe v Wade which Katie mentioned first so not completely sure she could have mentioned that one either. Painful to watch.

MCLAME DAY

Leaving early as enough is enough for today as the markets get going down and turn around and vice versa- GE is halted and shoots higher and reverses lower- tomorrow - no idea.

Started trading TWM this morning - stopped out- made a little on UYG and that was about it.

DJIA had a 230 point round trip move while the SPX move was a mere 27 - NAZ /NDX very weak all day as was the RUT. And if it weren't for IBM the DJIA would be in the green and unfortuneately for the IBM longs- its on the DO NOT SHORT - so no short covering relief.

VIX- hanging in near 40;

Crude $99;

GOLD- $877;

EURO- probably at pretty good support 140;

Tomorrow another day and hopefully less whippy.

And if you havent seen the Jon Stewart clip- check it out;

MORNING SLIDE

Markets are lower as the 10:00 economic numbers hit with ISM coming in at 43.5 v 49.5 consensus.

DJIA -180, NAZ 20, SPX 22.

Strong sectors- metals, banks, telecom and drugs while oils, gaming and real estate lag.

NYSE- 1160 net losers;

NAZ- 700 net losers;

NDX- 15 GREEN;

OEX- 20 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 6% at 41.65;

Down volume 2X the up;

Financials are the leading sector if you exclude GE which is hammered by 9% as C JPM BAC MCD KO PG KFT lead the DJIA. Any shot GE becomes the next big story of 2008?

BKX giving me some hope the markets may turn higher buy for now it looks like a buy lower sell higher play as the markets seem to reverse what they did yesterday. RSI (2) is pretty good strategy for that play as major indexes now show:

DJIA -40

SPX -35

NAZ -40

RUT -33

Some fun links for the morning:

Big yields from Kip;

The white house back in the news;

Does this signify a landslide:

The latest from Roubini;

THE CLOSE

Another crazy day with the markets closing +485 on the DJIA, NAZ +99 and SPX +58.

Strong sectors included banks, brokers, emerging markets, ags and real estate while metals, utils, trannies and biotech lagged.

VIX- lower by 15% at/near 39.6;

Crude - higher by $5 at about $102;

Gold- lower by $40 at 4875;

I suspect we start going back down tomorrow as today's rally seemed a little with contrived with end of they month/quarter buying - also seems like a sell the news when/if the "recovery plan" gets passed.

Also, note how well those specialists did yesterday buying all that merchandise for sale in the last few moments as the DJIA crashed 200 points at the 400 settle up.

Finally, some fun links:

David Gergen on the bailout;

The best is yet to come from Sarah as some seeing her rising to the level of mediocrity;

Bespoke on the oversold condition;

AFTERNOON LOOK

Markets continue to trade but off their best levels as banks, emerging markets, brokers, ags and energy lead- laggards inlcude metals, gold, utils, homies and retail,

NYSE- 1100 net winners;

NAZ- 220 net winners;

NDX/OEX- 80 winners on each;

IBD- 65 GREEN;

VIX- lower by 13% at 40.6;

Up volume 4X the down;

Just wondering why that NAZ ADV/DECL is flattish compared to about everything else-

Strategy now - wait for the "recovery plan" to pass- take off some longs and start putting out the shorts again.

MORNING DOLLARS

Markets open higher with the DJIA +230, NAZ +44 and SPX +30 as I type.

Strong sectors include banks, emerging markets, energy, brokers, ags and large cap value while metals, homies, biotech and small caps.

NYSE- 975 net winners;

NAZ- 200 net winners;

NDX-80 GREEN;

OEX- 85 GREEN;

IBD- 50 GREEN;

VIX- down 10% at near 42;

Up volume 4X the down;

FWIW- interesting how Haines mentioned the imbalance on the close yesterday as the specialists had to come in and loads of stock at the close- wonder how much money they made when they sold this morning?

Anyhow, I still think this rally gets sold later in the day.

PRE MARKETS

Markets set top open up about 250 on the DJIA and 35 on the SPX - my guess is that it gets sold pretty quickly so FWIW.

Some wonderful links from yesterday:

The History of the VIX;

Record VIX- CLOSE;

Blaming Pelosi;

Mike on Historic losses;

The Quant on prior crashes;

The Roll Call;

CRASHING CLOSE

Markets crashed today with the SPX down 10%, NAZ -10% and DJIA -8%- The bank index which supposedly bottomed a while ago was down 20%.

NYSE/NAZ 5,000 net losers;

GOLD - higher by $29 at $912;

Not much to say except lots of folks no where to put the blame as the House voted NO on the rescue plan.

I suspect a plan gets support later in the week now that everyone knows the ramifications of voting NO- And if you want to know how your Congress person voted - here is the list.

In my mind this was a market crash today and going back to prior crashes- 1987- lots of money was made by the buyers and I suspect it will be no different this time. Question is when to step in and this fish will be watching tomorrow very closely.

SOGGY MARKETS

Loved the comment from Maria Caruso Cabrera - watch out when the government is coming to help you- well I think I prefer them to the folks at LEH BSC WB AIG WM PFE etc- all blue chip long term buys at one time-

Markets - still bouncing around and off their best and worst levels-

VIX - over 40 and climbing;

NYSE/NAZ - 4500 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 10 GREEN;

The vote happening soon and I expect thumbs up and a rally- that eventually gets sold-

Boehner speaking as I type and he urges a YES vote;

MORNING DRIP

Markets way lower but off their worst levels as the "recovery plan" doesn't seem to be helping for the time being.

Strong sectors- gold, drugs and defense while emerging markets, financials, ags and oils are the worst.

NYSE/NAZ 4300 net losers between the two;

NDX/OEX- 10 GREEN between the two;

VIX- at near 40- not a great time to sell as I predict there will be better opportunities;

Feels like it can't get any worse than this - but its felt that way before-so just sitting and waiting for now -

WEEKEND LINKS

Surprised to see the intrade numbers dropping on a bailout package by Tuesday - it was over 80 last night but now drifting down to the 60% area. Everyone knows what the markets will look like if no deal is done.

If the deal gets done and I suspect it will, looking to unload longs into the SPX 1255 level- which is at/near the SMA 50.

Barry with some great stuff this weekend including his letter;

Mike with his Technical look;

And Cramer who claims not to be a joker turns out to be the real joker;

Bill Cara on morons;

The Monster that ate wall street;

The Audacity of Hope for 2009;

The Green Bailout;

Finally, 9 reasons on why we are at/near the bottom;