Very interesting day as Sarah Palin gets picked as the McCain VP - and the markets seem to be voting a big fat OH NO as the DJIA/SPX/NAZ give back almost all of yesterday's gains. Note the markets started tanking when the pick was confirmed by NBC.
Besides gaming, note the out performance by the financials as the BKX/GS /MER/MS all green- oils lower despite the talk of a major hurricane to hit the gulf early next week.
Sarah Palin- governor of Alaska (population 700,000) for almost two years, Mayor of Wasilla Alaska (population 6,700) four years, and avid hunter, fisherman and lover of Moose stew.
Not exactly sure how she fits in with McCain on "experience and judgement" but we will see- as one friend noted the following:
Since when does judgement and experience matter?
Well that is what McCain has been running on all year.
Well then he doesn't need it in a running mate.
Unless he doesn't make it through the four years.
NOON IN ALASKA
Market not greeting Sarah Palin with great enthusiasm - as the DJIA is down about 160, SPX -15 and NAZ -48- taking back most of yesterday's gains. Every DJIA stock in the red but a noticable out performance by the financial sector as GS WB MS MER LEH all trading in the green.
Market internals show 2,000 net losers;
Not expecting much excitement for the rest of the day - but as I mentioned earlier - next week will be very interesting as it is probably a go up through 1300 or down under 1260 time.
Markets trading lower and giving up about half of yesterdays gains on the SPX while the RUT and NAZ are doing far worse.
Strong sectors include ags, telecom and oils while tech, semis, internets and real estate are fairing the worst.
NYSE- 925 net losers;
NAZ- 875 net losers;
NDX- 7 GREEN;
OEX- 15 GREEN;
IBD- 25 GREEN;
WINNERS- BWLD TITN SYUT CF KSU APEI AGU TESO BABY T MO NSC VZ RF BNI TYC MER MS TWX;
LOSERS- DELL IP ORCL BK EMC INTC CBS UAUA MRVL SNDK LVLT ADSK LRCX RIMM EXPE GRMN AFAM FORR RIMM;
SPX 1300 again a head wind and many traders still waiting to see which way this market is going to go- next week should be very interesting as all the big guys are back in their chairs-
There it is- the end of a great day for the bulls as the markets, which were strong all day, closed at the highs. The DJIA +1.84%, SPX +1.47%, NAZ +1.22%, RUT +2.01% and MIDs +1.55%.
Market selling off in the after markets as DELL is reporting some ugly news trading down 10% on the day at/near $23 and also bringing the NDX futures down to almost unchanged on the day.
NYSE- 1850 net winners;
NAZ- 1280 net winners;
VIX- down 2% at 19.4 and still not over sold at 4% below the SMA 10;
Financials and homies the big winners and just wondering how many folks are looking to reload the short trade in the banks/brokers-
SPX right back at the recent high 1300 level- RSI (2) levels way over bought at near the 90 level with the RUT a little better and the NDX a little worse.
Markets still higher but off the best levels- best sectors- homies, brokers, gaming, banks, real estate and telecom while oils, ags and metals lag.
NYSE- 1500 net winners;
NAZ- 975 net winners;
WINNERS- UAUA AMLN PCAR DISCA LINTA WB MER WY C IP LEH IP TIF LVS MGM TITN DXPE CMED IDSA CIR TRLG;
LOSERS- GMXR SYUT POT AGU CELG ARD WLL PVA DELL IACID GILD NVDA EP HAL WMB KO S SLB BHI AAPL;
VIX- only lower by 1.5% at 19.5;
Up volume 3X down on very very light numbers;
SPX at 1294 and seems to be struggling at the resistance numbers mentioned in the prior post- and check on the RUT which is way better and the NDX/NAZ which is way worse- DJIA +1.5% on the heels of big moves in AIG C BAC JPM AXP CAT BA.
Some interesting stuff from Birinyi on Cramer:
Januray 23 2008- "What do you call a 600 point swing to the upside after retesting a low? A bottom."
March 18- "Last Tuesday's rally was not the bottom of the market, but today's rally was."
Markets open higher with some notable resistance sitting in the windshield-
August 11 High- 1313;
August 18 High- 1300
August 22 High- 1293;
NYSE- 930 net winners;
NAZ- 415 net winners;
NDX- 85 GREEN;
IBD- 70 GREEN;
VIX- down 1.5% at/near 19.5 and only about 4% below the SMA 10;
And some notable commentary this morning from Kramer in a column titled- "Lows of July 15 Are Becoming a Memory"- my take from this article in the last paragraph:
"The companies on the brink -- WaMu (WM) , Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) , Citigroup (C) , AIG (AIG) , Lehman (LEH) , Ford (F) and GM (GM) -- are still on the brink, but the more days that go by without outright chaos are days that they can trick their way into getting more capital or forbearance, and July 15 will be a bottom for them as well as for so many others, from oil users to retailers to incredibly resilient housing stocks."
Not sure why a guy who has been watching the markets for the amount of time he has doesn't remember that these things don't go in a straight line- check the chart of the XLF - it doesn't go straight down- and no doubt if these stocks reverse and head lower it will be like he never wrote this column. Great service to the readership.
Markets closed higher but off the best levels of the day and its interesting to look at how the various indexes closed:
Clearly the out performance of small /mids continue and for the year - the RUT down only 4% on the year while SPX/DJIA down about 13%;
Strong sectors included homies, shipping, brokers, steel, gaming and metals while biotech, drugs, ags, semis and defense lagged.
NYSE- 1650 net winners;
NAZ- 770 net winners;
NDX/OEX- 160 GREEN;
VIX- lower by 3.3% and about 2% under the SMA 10;
GOLD/CRUDE/EURO all higher- while GS continues to under perform along with GOOG;
SPX seems to be a sale at the top of the range at/near the 1290/1300 level and a buy at the 1260 level-
Markets are marching higher and it looks like the choppy day is turning into a nice trend day higher - but checking the old "tell" stocks- GS lower on the day despite the recent rip in financials and GOOG starting to trade like its a newspaper stock.
NYSE- 1500 net winners;
NAZ- 850 net winners;
NDX- 80 GREEN;
OEX- 80 GREEN;
DJIA- 29 GREEN led by AIG BAC C T BA IBM- only red =PFE;
VIX- lower by 3% and trading under 20- and under the SMA 10 as the merry go round between SPX 1260 and 1310 continues;
Crude and nat gas still higher on the fear of GUSTAV;
Obama still at 61% on intrade and McCain stuck at 38 for what seems like forever;
RSI (2) levels at/near 70 on most major indexes with RUT/MID higher and NDX/NAZ lower - closer to 60;
Markets open mixed with strength in the midcap/smallcap area while the DJIA trades red. Also some red flags in the financials as most trade red including GS JPM C WFCD LM MER MS BEN BLK TROW CME ICE NDAQ- so I wouldn't get too excited until those start to flip.
NYSE- 800 net winners;
NAZ- 400 net winners;
NDX- 70 GREEN;
OEX- 50 GREEN;
IBD- 75 GREEN;
VIX- flat at 20.5;
Up volume double the down;
WINNERS- GMXR AZZ KNDL ARD PVA TITN SYUT MEE NTAP STLD FMCN FWLT LEAP EXPE EP WMB ATI LEH S COP ORCL;
LOSERS- BMY TGT BK JPM ALL GS PFE AMLN UAUA JAVA SHLD BIIB GENZ AMGN GOOG CME DECK MA CELG;
Probably time to go back out on the limb for a range/choppy day call as lots of cross currents with good numbers in the energy sector while financials and big cap are lagging.
And FWIW Joe Lieberman surging on intrade for VP selection by McCain- last trade at about 15%.
THE FED GANG
Markets moving down and accelerating the move lower on the FED minutes - shocking - the economy not so hot but inflation now an issue for the FED gang and a tightening the next move- I doubt it- how do they raise rates under these crummy conditions?
Anyhow, so much for the choppy market - and now the financials cracking again- as LEH XLF JPM GS all at/near the lows of the day.
Market internals still near the flat line but falling fast;
VIX- still lower on the day at 20.9 with RSI (2) levels at near the 20 level - also note the SPX /DJIA both down about 14% for the year while the RUT is lower by 6%-
Crude up over a buck while the dollar is higher by .7%;
Notwithstanding the awesome debate between Vince and Leo - a snoozefest on the street this morning with strength in oils, utils and banks and weakness in semis, trannies and telecom.
Market internals still pretty good and acting better than the major indexes;
NAZ/OEX- about 60% of the stocks in the green;
VIX- lower by 2% at/near 20.6;
Volume almost 2/1 to the upside;
Looks like the choppy day prediction made near the open is the right call- and probably a good day for activities that don't include trading these markets.
Markets look to be setting up for a choppy day as financials, metals and oils are higher while semis, trannies, retail and tech are flat to down.
NYSE- 575 net winners;
NAZ- 300 net winners;
NDX- 45 GREEN;
OEX- 50 GREEN;
IBD- 55 GREEN;
DJIA- 13 GREEN led by AIG XOM MRK DD C BAC GM JPM CVX and AXP;
VIX- flattish at 20.9;
Oil and gold now moving a lot higher despite the big move up in the dollar- not all that sensible but it is what it is- as the weather now impacts the price of crude/nat gas- GUSTAV.
I will go with a choppy day forecast and look to take advantage of dips and rips.
Markets are set to open mixed with oil lower by $.50 while natty gas is higher by almost 6% - at $8.27.
The biggest news of the morning is the rise of the dollar which now up almost 1% and and 1.446 points against the EURO.
Checking the trading signals- the VIX etc numbers are a bit above their SMA 10 while the RSI (2) readings are at/near 25 on most major indexes.
Trading volume has been very very light of late so I don't read too much into these numbers now as the markets seem to oscillate between the 1260 and 1300 levels on the SPX- a break of those ranges on higher volume-then we have something but I don't expect that until ALD (after Labor day).
And if your watching the convention/election stuff INTRADE now showing Obama with a 61 buy level and McCain at about 36 - while Romney is sitting at about 60% to be the VP selection of McCain- I doubt those numbers - why - well how many homes does Romney have and how will that one play out/
Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com also showing Obama as the eventual winner - but its early - real early.
Another crummy day in the books as the markets closed near the lows with the DJIA -240, NAZ -49 and SPX -25- The RUT was worse - down 2.3%.
No strong sectors - as all closed red with gaming, banks, financials, homies, real estate and steel doing the worse.
NYSE/NAZ 3200 net losers;
NDX/OEX- 10 winners among the 200 stocks;
VIX- higher by 11.5% at near 21 and above the SMA 10 after being about 8% below on Friday- message of the market- gotta be quick.
Total volume very weak again at 860M with 7X the down volume as up;
Gold down $6, Crude higher by $.60 cents and the EURO ends at/near 1.475;
SPX ends at 1267 level and this time the 1255 50% retracement area may be tagged- and after that- well who knows but recent high is 1310 and low is 1200- and FWIW- most big down days followed by up days and vice versa- Turnaround Tuesday?
Markets continue lower the sell off being broad based as none of the sectors I follow are in the green-
Best- oils, metals, shipping and drugs while gaming, steel, financials, small caps and trannies are the worst.
Market internals continue to slide with almost 3,000 net losers on the NYSE/NAZ;
The DJIA with one winner (C) and 29 losers led by AIG BAC JPM AXP AA DD MCD CAT GE;
The IBD 100 group has also slid to 20 stocks in the green led by ENSG CYBS AFAM TESO PVA CF;
Checking key stocks among the various sectors- almost all red with OXY the sole winner;
Strategy- its days like this that generally close at/near the lows so I am looking to short the blips and ignore the dips for now.
And where is the guy with the GOP on his badge saying the market rallied on Friday because Biden was a lousy choice for VP? Is he now a good choice?
Markets open lower on the heels of over bought conditions and NO DEAL announcement on the LEH front which is down almost 5% to the $13.6 level.
The DJIA -115, NAZ -25 and SPX -11.
Strong sectors include metals and oils while financials, real estate, trannies and retail are the worst.
NYSE- 1250 net losers;
NAZ- 1000 net losers;
NDX- 10 GREEN;
OEX- 10 GREEN;
IBD- 35 GREEN led by GMXR CF ENSG WLL SWN TESO AFAM;
VIX- higher by 7%+ to the 20.2 level;
Down volume 2.5X the up;
CRUDE- higher by about $.60 cents at/near $115;
Gold - down a bit at $830;
EURO rising at 1.48;
SPX testing the 1280 level after hitting the upper range of its recent moves on Friday- I guess even Buffet only has so much to give to the markets and with nothing happening in the LEH end probably a trend day lower is the most likely action today.
Ok - early Sunday eventing and no word yet of any deal on LEH stock- for those of you that don't follow CNBC all trading day- here is what Bove said Friday morning in his conversation with Haines and Burnett about a $20 bid for LEH stock.
And if you bought LEH anytime on Friday and still hold the stock you are under water as it hit a high of about $16 at/near the open and slowly sank to close at/ near $14.3.
Also, if you do a GOOG search on Dick Bove and his bank calls, well not to good as he anticipated a bottom in them back in March.
But don't think that Bove is the only analyst having problems timing the markets this year- here is a little study at BESPOKE- on analysts and DJIA component predictions.
Barrons - interviews Byron Wien- sees the markets higher by year end with slow growth in the U.S. over the next several years, says maybe the financials have bottomed but any rally will be very slow, looks for oil to stay in the low $100 area but over the longer term higher simply because of China and India and expects other commodities to also trend higher as other countries increase their standards of living. Also mentions specific sectors that he expects will do well - drugs, selected biotech, oil and gas explorers, nat gas and Brazil.
Market as a whole- probably over bought and at/near the top of the recent trading range which I will define as 1260 on the bottom to 1315 at the top- RSI (2) level at near 85 on most major indexes and the VIX- a bit over sold and stretched about 8% from its SMA 10- other vol indexes also stretched just like the VIX.