Markets closed higher but well off the best levels of the day and near the bottom on the DJIA. The NDX/COMPQ were the best performing major index while the MID's were the worst and barely in the green.
Strong sectors included internets, oil service, homies, biotechs and semis while gaming, metals, retail and banks lagged.
NYSE internals +800
NAZ internals +230
OEX 50 WINNERS;
NDX 55 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 75 WINNERS;
VIX lower by 7.5% and in "sell the market" levels;
GREEN STOCKS-EXM DRYS DX. TKC SNP TNE POT SNDA DWSN MT CF RIMM ORCL S ATI LTD GS TXN BMYBHI CI DIS GM DISCA CTSH AMLN APOL YHOO AAPL AMZN;
RED STOCKS- MNST BBBY LAMR RYAAY UAUA LINTA TLAB JAVA SPLS RF AXP TWX SLB HD F USB MER MS CCU COF FDX IBM PRFT CTV ARGN SPEC ZUMZ MORN MA NVT LFL SLB GMCR;
HAR trading again after KKR/GS told them they were pulling out of the deal and only down about 30 points on the day. I will go with KKR/GS as the shrewdest in the deal and not how GS rallied on the news to $210.
OK, still think we get better opportunities to buy next week and that is my strategy for now- not selling but trying to buy lower.
Just a heads up that the VIX/VXO/VXN trio are all more than 20% below their 10 day SMA's and giving what has historically been a pretty good sell signal. Two day RSI reading also in overbought territory as follows:
Not saying the markets are in for a big collapse- just the thought that next week will probably give a better buying opportunity. Always funny how 1,000 DJIA points lower everyone was scared and buying the dip was the last thing in the plan. Today, BUY EVERYTHING. Well not me, not now, I am way net long and do think the markets are going higher, just think a better opportunity next week.
And don't tell anyone but the NDX has now made the round trip and has retraced about 99% of its high to low back to high.
Markets are moving on up yet again with the DJIA +86, NAZ+16 and SPX +9. Small and Mid cap are actually trailing as is value.
Strongest sectors include internets, airlines, semis, oils, defense, drugs and homies while metal stocks, banks and real estate are lagging.
NYSE internals +1050;
NAZ internals +585;
OEX- 75 WINNERS;
NDX -65 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 70 WINNERS;
VIX - lower by 5.5% and over sold;
Up Volume more than double Down Volume;
Banks are acting pretty crummey with XLF BAC C CFC JPM MA MTB USB WFC all red while LEH LM MER MS NDAQ red in the broker/xchange area. AIB BEN BSC CME GS ICE NMX NYX on the green side.
Other interesting stuff:
AMGN GILD +1%;
I was expecting a sell off down to the 1500 level on the SPX but that was not to be as gapped up big this morning. Hopefully next week we get the buyable selloff down to that level.
DRIP DRIP DRIP
Markets have drifted lower most of the day and are now at/near their lows. One of the culprits, the rise in oil which is over $83 a barrel as I type and anyone knows that as crude moves higher, equities fall (lol). The main culprit in my opinion, over bought market conditions.
Stong sectors- metals, oil service, semis, integrated oil and gaming. Weak links, homies, airlines, retail, brokers, banks and real estate/reits.
NYSE internals- 1,300 net red;
NAZ internals- 880 net red;
OEX- 30 WINNERS;
NDX -30 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 35 WINNERS;
VIX up almost 4% to the 21 level;
Key stocks- ICE NDAQ NYX NMX AMZN CSCO IBM ITC TXN APC CNQ RIG SLB TSO VLO TXT SGP CLEG BYD LVS MGM GOOG green; AAPL BAC C CME GE GS JPM MO MS MSFT MER WFC BIDU KLAC YHO TIF SHLD PVH KSS GES COST COH all red;
10 year Bond selling off and yields up to 4.67%;
CNQ +2% (mentioned yesterday);
Real Estate/ Homies/Retail/Trannies/Airlines crushed on the rise in rates;
Two day RSI on various indexes:
So getting near the middle of the range but my thoughts are to buy if/when the SPX gets near the 1500/1505 level which was solid resistance before Tuesday's big ramp.
Markets open near the unchanged level as stocks appear to be consolidating their recent gains. Interesting how the EWA EEM EFA trio are all higher by about .5%.
Strongest sectors include metals, internets, bitoechs, gaming, semis and drugs while homies, retail and airlines lag.
NYSE internals -525;
NAZ internals -330;
OEX- 40 GREEN WINNERS- AES ATI T GS BDK TXN BA DD DELL NSM; LOSES- LTD HD CMCSA CBS WY TGT FDX COF GM GE EK CI;
NDX -40 GREEN- WINNERS- MICC SNDK XMSR DELL ALTR CTXS AMZN JNPR CELG FLEX GOOG; LOSERS- AKAM ERIC PETM INFY DISCA KLAC ROST SPLS BBBY SEPR;
IBD 100- 50 GREEN - WINNERS- PKX VSEC LWAY NILE POT MT PCP CLB BHP BBL TLVT NOV;
Lots of Big Cap Red as AAPL BAC C GE JPM MO MS MSFT MER WFC all lower while CME GOOG GS IBM XOM ICE NDAQ NYX NMX all green;
Market digesting recent gains and I continue to believe we will be heading higher with initial target of the old SPX highs near the 1555 level.
Markets closed off their best levels but still up about .55% on the DJIA and the NAZ, .6% on the SPX and 1.34% on the RUT which seems to be playing a quick game of catch up.
Sector strength in real estate, oil service, metals, utils, airlines, drugs and semis and weakness in homies, gaming, trannies and retail.
NYSE and NAZ internals both with 1k more winners than losers;
OEX - 75 GREEN
NDX- 60 GREEN
IBD 100 - 70 GREEN;
WINNERS- GMCR TKC GLNG MR VDSI TRAK NVT CNH PKX DWSN DELL GS GOOG EXC CSC ETR SLB SLE HON BAX UAUA SEPR DISCA NIHD PCAR DELL GOOG ADSK FISV;
LOSERS- XMSR SIRI MRVL CMCSA MICC LINTA FLEX JNPR ROST WYNN NVDA NXY MS BNI TGT BDK FDX NSC GM MSFT NSC TWX EMC SNDA CNQ FTO BCSI DSX LFC TBSI GPOR FSTR PCP WNR;
VIX- down 1% and about 18% below the 10 day SMA;
Two day RSI numbers on major indexes:
OK, overbought and into sell territory on most. My take, Buy the dips as I expect we will be trading above the mid July highs before too long.
Markets are higher this morning with the DJIA +85, NAZ +19 and SPX +12. The RUT/MID complex is again the strongest of the indexes as both are gaining about 1.3%. Strong sectors:
NAZ internals +1100
OEX -80 WINNERS- COF GS WB ATI WY MER AA CAT EXC; LOSERS- CMCSA NXY MSFT HNZ GM CPB TWX EMC TGT KO;
NDX -75 WINNERS-JOYG PCAR NIHD DISCA RIMM FAST CTSH PETM MNST SPLS; LOSERS- XMSR SIRI CMCSA JNPR MICC LINTA LAMR MSFT MRVL CHRW;
IBD 100- 80 WINNERS- TKC TRAK NVT BIDU BHP FTK BBL VDSI PKX GLNG CTRP FLIR VIVO; LOSERS- CNQ SNDA BCSI GPOR PCLN LFC TBSI DSX PCP AIRM FSTR;
VIX-under 20 and down about 2% and looks like the up trend is over;
CNQ down about 4.5% this morning and I see no news. It has had a huge move but some very smart folks love the stock. It is about 16% of the FAIRX portfolio on last look and also a big position at WGRNX.
Now that the markets have been saved and everyone is safe yet again on the long side, SPX futures are trading +9.5 in the premarket, NDX +9 and DJIA +75. Taking some off near here or trailing a stop probably makes some sense as rate cuts don't grow to the sky.
In the FWIW category, I was reading the SP Outlook September 19 Newsletter and see that they have reduced their exposure (just in time) to international equities by 5% and increased their allocation to cash to 15%. So their allocation is now as follows:
US Stocks- 40% - SPY 34%, MDY 4% and IJR (small cap 600) 2%;
Foreign Stocks- 20% - EFA 15% and EEM 5%;
Bonds- 25% -20% AGG and 5% SHY;
The newsletter also updates the SP Platinum portfolio which has an excellent long term performance record- Over the last 12 years give or take, according to S&P, the portfolio returned over 15% compared to about 8% for the SPX. Included in the portfolio of about 57 stocks are:
ANF AMGN BBY CVS COF CHK XEC DHR EMC GENZ HIG IBM MTW MSFT MOV NBR NVS SLB SYK and WAG;
It is too bad that our friend Jimmy doesn't give us some kind of model portfolio to track so we can actually follow his advice and see the results. I suspect their is a good reason for it.
Markets seemed to like the the 50bps cut by our Big guy Ben as the DJIA gained 336, NAZ +70 and SPX +43. The RUT 2K was up the most of the major indexes, almost 4%, and is now in the green for 2007. We are also about 300 points from the old highs on the DJIA and 35 away from the all time highs on the SPX.
Glad I stayed with the bullish bent and bought stocks/etfs/funds on some of the ugly down days. Always thought that Ben did not want to be the guy who didn't prevent the crash of 2007.
Small Caps +3.9%
NYSE internals +2670
NAZ internals +1700
OEX- 98 WINNERS- LEH ATI GS COF TGT MS JPM SLB C LTD;
NDX- 98 WINNERS- NVDA MICC FAST WFMI INFY BBBY ROST JOYG APOL ISRG;
IBD 100- 98 WINNERS- ARGN NILE BBL HDB MA MT BHP FTO SID HDNG DRYS VDSI;
VIX down 23% and a mere 18% below the 10 day SMA;
Two day RSI' s of major indexes:
The resistance was the 1505 area on the SPX and we are solidly above and the next stop/ test will probably be the old highs some time in the near future. The RUT may be the best way to play it as has the most catching up to do. Metals will probably also do well as the lower rates will probably sink the dollar further which will make commodities more valuable. Gold did hit a 27 year high today and $800 may not be that far fetched a target.
And Cramer said stay on the sidelines for this announcement- yikes, he nailed it again.
Markets moved higher this morning after my early post on the heels of good news on the LEH conf call. GS up 4+, LEH 2+, MS 2+, so the brokers are moving up on the good news along with all the major banks BAC +.6%, C +1.2%, JPM +1% and wfc +.8%.
Aside from brokers and banks, strong sectors include gaming, retail, semis, tech, real estate and biotech while metals, airlines, internets and drugs lag.
NYSE internals +1240/ NAZ internals +500;
OEX- 84 WINNERS- LEH MS COF GS WY CAT AXP ROK CBS DIS; LOSERS- BA AMGN MSFT CSC FDX CI CMCSA;
NDX -75 WINNERS- WFMI MICC NVDA APOL VRSN ROST ISRG VMED BRCM BIIB- LOSERS- UAUA BEAS TLAB XMSR FLEX MNST YHOO CMCSA PTEN;
IBD 100- 70 WINNERS- NILE BBL ARGN BIDU BHP NVDA FTK TKC LAYN TLVT;
VIX down 5.6%;
Up Volume 3x Down Volume on the NYSE;
Notable action- CFC FLAT, GE+1.35%, LVS +3%, CMI +3.2%, CNQ HOC +2%, UA +2%, WFMI +4%,
Get ready for some fireworks as Big Ben hits the wires and no matter what he says/does the markets will be all over the map. Probably a time to buy the dip and sell the blip as volatility will no doubt be the real winner.
Markets open higher after an initial ramp on the LEH/ BBY/ inflation news but have since come in off the highs and most of the brokers have flipped to flat after trading much higher in the pre market.
Strongest sectors include retail, utils, biotech, tech and semis while brokers, metals, homies and small caps lag.
NYSE internals +900 after being at about +1200 near the open;
NAZ internals FLAT- after opening strong;
OEX 75 WINNERS;
NDX 70 WINNERS;
Strong stocks- WMFI NVDA AKAM CTSH ADBE ATI ROK LTD DD CAT UTX MMM CL BIDU BBL BHP MT NILE TEF PDA FTO;
Weak stocks- DRYS TBSI BLUD FDX AMGN GM BA MSFT MER HON CMCSA NTAP XMSR AMLN LVLT BEAS CROX CME NYX BSC MER;
VIX down 2% and flopping around near the 10 day SMA for what seems like weeks;
Up Volume almost triple Down Volume on the NYSE;
This rally doesn't give me a warm feeling as it feels like traders want to fade the bullish morning news. Of course that will all change at 2:15 PM as Big Ben tells us what he thinks.
LVS/WYNN duo continue to act very well and seem to lift just about every day;
Oils getting a little bid with CNQ FTO RIG XOM all nicely higher;
Retail, a recent laggard is very strong with DECK GES KSS M TGT WFMI all green;
Tech, a mixed bag with SMH XLK AKAM AMZN CTSH GOOG IBM INTC NVDA SNDK higher and TXN YHOO MSFT MOT INFY AAPL all lower;
Markets closed lower but their best and worst levels of the day. The DJIA -41, NAZ -21 and SPX -8.
Strongest sectors included gaming, oils, metals and homies while airlines, biotech, brokers, retail and trannies were the worst.
NYSE 1225 net losers;
NAZ 1265 net losers;
OEX -23 WINNERS;
NDX- 12 WINNERS;
GREEN STOCKS- BIDU DECK LVS MGM WYNN LRCX S YHOO VRSN MNST BEAS LINTA ATVI KLAC F GM HPQ CAT XOME EP NSM CBS DOW PEP SNDA LIFC FTK CMED CMG CF ;
RED STOCKS- BNI EK EMC XRX MER EXC TWX KO MS NSC GS TYC RYAAY IACI AMLN SHLD AKAM FAST MRVL UAUA GILD SNDK SPEC OII VSEC MORN NIVO MT HMSY;
Not a terribly exciting day as all eyes are on Big Ben and his big announcement tomorrow. I suspect the same type of action before 2:15 and then the fireworks. Looking to buy the NDX /TECH on a sell off for a pretty decent rally into NDX 2050. We shall see.
Markets continue lower in early afternoon trading with the DJIA -30, NAZ -15 and SPX -6. Banks and brokers are well off their lows and could be signalling better action later in the day.
Strongest sectors include gaming, metals, oils and defense while biotechs, drugs and retail lag.
NYSE - 1150 net losers;
NAZ - 1100 net losers;
OEX - 20 WINNERS;
NDX- 15 WINNERS;
GREEN stocks- LRCX WYNN S VRSN YHOO KLAC F CAT GM HPQ S NSM XOM CVX SLE BIDU SNDA CMED LIFC AIRM SYNA LAYN CLB CF CMG;
LOSERS- SPEC HMSY VSEC OII NVO VIP MT BLUD RYAAY IACI UAUA ERTS AMGN SHLD EMC EK XRX BNI EXC TWX AMGN;
VIX +6.5% - more than 5% above the 10 day SMA- not putting much stock in that signal as we have Fed day tomorrow- VOLATILITY;
It is just a waiting game for tomorrow and I said it before, I will say it again - hopefully we get a nice sell off - to be bought;
Markets open lower on the heels of lower European bourses and some trepidation about the Fed and the brokers who report this week.
Strong sectors include metals, defense, oils, homies and some tech- weakness in real estate, big cap bio, brokers, internets, retail and trannies.
NYSE 790 net losers;
NAZ 875 net losers;
OEX- 34 WINNERS- GM CAT F HPQ SLB WMB XOM DOW ATI CVX- LOSERS- BNI AMGN KO CI MS AES EK COF NSC LEH;
NDX- 25 WINNERS- SIRI WYNN CTSH S RIMM LRCX AAPL MICC LOW CKFR- LOSERS- IACI RYAAY EXPE MRVL GILD ERTS EBAY FAST SHLD AKAM LINTA;
IBD 100- 42 WINNERS- CMED BIDU AIRM LIFC SNDA FTI LWAY CNH FTK ROS CLB; LOSERS- SPEC TBSI MORN OII VSEC MT NVO GPOR AMZN MA TKC;
The SPX trading at near the 50 day SMA and if you look closely at the chart, it has been in a trading range since the middle of August between 1,430 on the bottom and 1,496 on the top.
The NDX seems to be in an up trend since mid August and is above all the relevant moving averages. I don't think we will go very far in either direction before tomorrow at 2:15 but if we sell off on that news tomorrow what ever it may be, I will be inclined to buy the dip.
Markets are set to open lower on lower equities in Europe (Northern Rock crisis) and fear about the Fed tomorrow. Barrons with a bullish articles on MO SMBL and NOK. I like the SMBL story and will look to buy on pullbacks and am long MO.
IBD 100 starting to gain some energy and med stocks. Here are some of the interesting ones for this week:
One other point on the PE's I wrote about a few days ago. Obviously if earnings come in below expectations the PE goes up and stocks aren't as cheap as expected. I doubt that happens as the economy is so varies so some may come in on the low side but others will beat and the keep the overall PE cheap. Just one sharks opinion.