WINNERS AND LOSERS

Markets starting to look like a bull again- checking the sectors that should be getting us off the bottom the quickest from March 6 close:

SOX +29%

XLK +22.4%

XLB +29.4%

BKX +65%

XBD +48.2%

XLF +56.8%

IYF +49.4%

IAI +41%

RLX +37%

XRT +35%

And the laggqards should be:

XLP +10.7%

DRG +8.2%

XLU +12.8%

CMR +19%

SPX +23.3%

NDX +23.6%

DJIA +21%

So looks like things are playing out the way they should for a new bull - semis, tech, retail and fins leading while drugs and consumer staples lag.

BESPOKE with some levels;

BESPOKE % above the fiddy;

Candlestick trading and moving averages;

Identifying a Market Bottom;

The Gross gift;

More from Gross;

Double Digit unemployment WHEN not IF;

Crossfire = Tom Braden;

Bear market rallies;

Inside the Obama/Bank Ceo meeting;

THE LOVE

Folks are certainly liking equities after hating them between September of 2007 and Feb of 2009- feels good to be back with the bull.

SPX closed +8 and the NAZ +19-

Strong sectors- real estate, gaming, energy and fins while metals, drugs, biotech and defense lagged.

NYSE- 1120 net green;

NAZ-450 net green;

NDX /OEX- 65 GREEN on each;

VIX- down 5.5% and under the 40 level;

One thing I recently read was an article on what to look for in a new bull market:

1) No rational reason for the rally;

2) Semis lead;

3) Fins and Basic materials lead;

4) Market pounces on good news and ignores bad news;

5) Gaps lower close higher;

6) Strong buying into the close;

Hmmm. Seems like we are transitioning.

NQ/ES futs closed at their highs and at resistance - 1315 and 840 respectively- lots of folks expecting a sell off at these levels including one Arthur Cashin- don't know but my guess is they buy them on Monday and the sell off starts later on Monday or on Turnaround Tuesday.

QUICK PM LOOK

As I mentioned earlier, a choppy day as anticipated with strength in the NAZ and weakness in the DJIA with gaming, energy, real estate and tech leading higher and metals, drugs, biotech and defense leading lower.

Market internals fairly flat on NYSE/NAZ and more strength on NDX and OEX;

Gold sinking and trading under $900 while crude is fairly flat at $52.4;

VIX down a bit at 40.5;

Had a nice early day trade in V and looking for that to ramp into the close- QLD may also ramp higher - so thinking about going there also.

Drugs starting to really trade poorly as another indication that the traders think the worst is over the economy. Note the worst stocks on the DJIA today MRK PFE JNJ KO.

RSI 2- still very overbought but I suspect they will come for stocks again Monday morning and the look for turn around Tuesday.

OPENING LOOK

Markets are lower after the in line jobs numbers- not surprising in light of the recent straight up move in the markets. SPX -5.5 and NAZ -9.

Strong sectors- gaming, energy, utils and junk while biotech, real estate, homies and metals lag.

NYSE- 780 net red;

NAZ- 565 net red;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 25 GREEN;

VIX - down 3% at 40.8;

TRIN- .91 with down volume 1.5x the up;

Gold +3 at $906;

Crude down 75 cents at $52;

Expecting a choppy day - and a lower close - next week will start the new action is earnings and guidance starts to hit- I guess most are expecting a sell the lousy news -

RSI 2 levels now at about 73 on SPX;

RIMMS AND JOBS

RIMM hit it out of the park last night and the stock is way up this morning and bringing the NAZ/NDX and the tech sector with it- Jobs number out and its inline and the reaction is higher for now- but not that volatile- probably a non event.

I am expecting the market to chop around most of the day and a down close would not surprise me.

Whitney ratings;

GOOG to buy TWITTER-;

Back to work for everyone's favorite QB;

Only 16 counts for Blago;

Dr. Brett tracking the the trades;

THE EWA

Markets closed in the middle of the range today after hitting the high a bit after noon. The SPX closed +23 and the NAZ +51.

Strong sectors- gaming, trannies and real estate while metals, drugs, bonds, biotech and utils lagged.

NYSE- 2325 net green;

NAZ- 1600 net green;

NDX/OEX- 90% GREEN;

VIX - 42.25 unchanged and useless;

TRIN- .65 with upside volume beating downside by over 10/1;

How now- tomorrow is the jobs report and my GUESS is regardless of the number markets get sold as traders look to protect gains -

RSI (2) way over bought and over 90 on most major indexes.

Longer term besides liquidating longer term positions - I intend to buy invest in the DBA/DBC ag/commodity funds and put up a bigger position in EWA - which is sizable now- I think Gartman has it nailed - own the commodity funds and the commodity producing countries.

If one wants a short idea - buys SDS with a stop at today's high in the SPX - note the major resistance at 840/845 - even Arthur mentioned it.

Gold probably a source of funds now but eventually much higher as inflation come back to the radar.

And there are still some that don't believe the rally - like this guy;

BESPOKE with a look at best q starts;

FMF with a lengthy Jim Rogers interview;

And Madoff back in the news- with a comp;

THE OPEN

Markets are flying yet again and Cramer has officially declared the lows are in and assets on banks balance sheets are no longer toxic - just bargains.

SPX +22.6 and NAZ +43.6.

Strong sectors- gaming, shipping, trannies and energy while metals, utils and drugs lag.

NYSE- 2400 net green;

NAZ- 1700 net green;

NDX /OEX- about 95% green;

VIX- down 3% at 41;

TRIN- .93 with up volume about 12x the down;

Markets are at major resistance area of 835 on SPX and 830 on ES- I expect they eventually break through - as the more times its attacked the greater the likelihood of success.

Actually- when that happens I will be looking to dump some longs- SSO (22 area) - etc- in the meantime watching for the blip up.

PRE MARKETS JIG

All futures ripping higher this morning but for what its worth- ES just hit its head at about 830- which is near the high of March 26 at 833 on the SPX. Could be an area where lots of folks sell (double top) and reverse positions.

Most traders/investors expected a change to mark to market goosing the market and it just may be the classic sell the news -

RSI (2) level on the futs this morning:

ES 85

YM 85

NQ 87

TF (RUT) 85

Gold down about $15 at $914 and crude up $2.5 at almost $51;

Ken Lewis saying he regrets taking as much TARP money as he did - y- hindsight 20/20 I guess he doesn't remember when his stock was less than half the current price in early March.

Lets see - how much money did he waste on Countrywide - about $6b and he bought MER when it was almost worthless for about .9 BAC shares. Taking the TARP probably saved the firm at the time.

So why is Kenny still running the show at BAC when he should be sunning himself in retirement in light of all the capital he destroyed?

PRETTY CLOSE

Closing near the highs and the market with another pretty good performance despite the early morning futures as the SPX closed higher by about 13 and the NDX about 15.

Strong sectors- metals, gaming, banks, telecom, shipping and tech while junk, biotech, real estate and ags lagged.

NYSE- 1525 net green;

NAZ- 860 net green;

NDX/OEX- 160 out of 200 green;

VIX- nothing- lower by 4% at 42.4;

TRIN- .62 with up volume 6x the down and very light volume overall at under 1.5B;

So why the big rally with all the lousy news- my take- pensions etc. under allocated to equities and now that its a new quarter and stocks have bottomed they are increasing their allocations.

RSI (2) levels - near 70 on most major indexes and lets see if they want them again tomorrow.

If your looking for VWAP charting- here it is- Good news from the car companies - hardly.

Remember yesterday?

Another goner;

TIM looking the wrong way for now;

Worst job market in decades;

Finally - even better on the way;

THE OPEN

Bizarre action this morning as the dip was aggressively bought and equities went straight up after the open as the ES futures are now 20 points off the bottom or 2.5% in about an hour.

Strong sectors- banks, gaming, fins, internets and metals while biotech, drugs and bonds lag.

NYSE- 940 net green;

NAZ- 250 net green;

NDX/OEX- about 65 GREEN on each;

VIX- down 2.5% at 43;

TRIN- .63 Up volume about 3x the down;

Looking at the SPX 800 number looking to buy dips on fins as for what ever reason the equity buyers are here - today- very bizarre action as yday found a big move higher until the last hour when over half was give back - an ugly down open today on ADP numbers and a mad rush to buy after the open- Could be pensions shifting from cash/bonds to equities - which are probably now under allocated in their assets.

ITS UGLY

Futures way down on the heels of the lousy ADP numbers and what looks like a probably GM/Chrysler bankruptcy.

ES -11

NQ -19

YM-100

Some fine links this morning:

They knew:

First Q sector performance;

The new Insurgency;

Another bottom caller;

More Junk;

March Madness;

Stats from Dr. Brett;

THINK like a winner;

Rogers impending depression;

Lowering the targets;

How it will look;

CLOSING UGLY

Markets closed higher but way off the best levels as the SPX touched 810.5 and closed under the 800 level at 797.63- seems like eoq mark uppers gave up at 3 as that is when one gets into trouble- marking up the final hour.

Strong sectors- real estate, banks, brokers and ags while energy, homies, shipping and telecom lagged.

NYSE- 1570 net green;

NAZ- 1000 net green;

NDX/OEX- about 75 GREEN on each;

VIX- down 3.3% at 44- and it seems like the VIX is becoming less and less helpful;

TRIN- .93 with up volume about 4x the down and 1.6B shs traded;

Under 800 and futures ticking down further- so the break above the level everyone was watching is now gonzo- maybe lots of folks looking at the 810 area as a pretty good place to sell in light of the earnings/guidance that will be coming.

Dougie on the death of buy and hold;

MV on the VIX;

Taleb on the folks running the street now;

And yes I miss Dylan already with Maria telling me "money coming into financials and tech and the markets up triple digits." Cheerleader Number 1.

MIDDAY UPDATE

Markets chopping around in sloppy action and the SPX was clearly rejected at the first go at 800- next time it looks to go through as mark up folks probably see an opportunity to bust some stops and ramp SPX into 805+.

Banks, fins, real estate, brokers and metals leading while homies, oil service, retail and ags lagging.

NYSE- 1465 net green;

NAZ- 900 net green;

OEX/NDX about 80 GREEN on each;

VIX- down 4% at 43.65;

TRIN- .87 with Up volume almost 4x the down;

RUT/MID with a bid now and no longer lagging- SPX 800 on the radar as many see resistance there and if it pop through - higher.

Looking for a FAS long as fins starting to get jiggy;

THE OPEN

Markets are higher but they don't look all that strong to this fish. RUT futures teetering in green and about to break to red. It is mark up March 31- and not sure how that will impact- today.

Strong sectors- banks, real estate, brokers and internets while homies, retail and trannies lag.

NYSE- 960 net green;

NAZ- 720 net green;

NDX/OEX- 70 GREEN on each but way off the best levels;

VIX- down a hair at 44.4;

Gold - flat Crude down 50 cents;

Markets bounced from the SMA 50 area on the SPX at 790- but they don't seem to have juice today to keep this rally moving- mark ups- not sure - but I suspect they will end by 3 EST.

Watching the RUT as that is lagging big;

PRE MARKET LOOK

Futures are pointing to a much higher open with the RUT leading the way +1.35% with the others up about 1% and near the highs of the session.

Doug Kass moving up from rm.com to the nytimes;

In Cramer we trust;

Optimism - not so good for the bulls;

Ten years and 2,500 points lower;

The brawl in Michigan;

FBI moving on in;

New Lows;

How to spot the bottom (sure);

Where is everyone going now?;

Is it over-

THE CLOSE

Markets closed the day well off their worst levels and I had to close out my SDS trade at break even as it became pretty clear the markets weren't going to close at the lows.

Strong sectors- ags, drugs, internets, metals and biotech while banks, fins, shipping, brokers and real estate lagged.

NYSE- 2400 net losers;

NAZ- 1500 net losers;

NDX/OEX -15 GREEN out of 200;

VIX- higher by 11% and about 7% above the SMA 10;

TRIN- 2.69- very light volume with just about all of it to the downside;

Gold $916 and crude at $48.5 down $4;

RSI (2) levels near 15 on the SPX;

Today's sell off a little different than most of the other ugly days of late- we closed well off the lows and buyers seemed to have interest at the end of the day.

No clue for tomorrow although end of month- so probably a good opportunity for some folks to mark em up- but who knows what the news will be tonight- or before the open-

This fish- one trading day at a time.

THE TREND

Markets seem stuck near the 787 SPX level and I am waiting for a little move higher to short - preferably near the SMA 50 over 790 with a stop a few points above the fiddy. I expect the markets to close at/near the lows.

Funny how just a few days ago folks were waiting for the opportunity to buy the dip- now most I hear from want to sell the rally, any rally.

Strong sectors- everything red with gold, drugs, internets and utils the best of the bad and shipping, banks, gaming, homies and fins doing the worst.

NYSE- 2500 net losers;

NAZ- 1700 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 5 GREEN on each;

VIX- higher by 11% at 45.75;

TRIN- 2.11 with down volume about 25x the up;

Waiting for a move back to the 50 SMA and will look to short there, also looking at SRS SDS and DIG.

This seems to be one of the days where old reliable is the trade of the day, close at the lows- just hold it.

Also like the SMA 80 which came via Schaeffer's.

THEOPEN

Markets are lower - way lower on the heels of the GM news and even this from MS which isn't helping the longs. SPX -24.5 and NAZ 47 as I type.

Strongest sectors- gold, bonds, metals and internets while shipping, gaming, fins and homies lag.

NYSE- 2470 net losers;

NAZ- 1635 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 7 GREEN among the 200 stocks;

VIX- higher by 10 % and heading to levels that may give buyers some comfort;

Gold higher by $4 and crude down $2+;

Love Pisani- who I think just gets worse every year- last week it was a great rally - this week its "hey we have rallied 20% + what do you expect"?

Levels I am watching now are the SMA 50 at 792 and then loads of resistance near the 800/805 levels.

My trade will probably to fade any rally that approaches 800 or jump on a decent pull up - lots of longs who bought the last few days who would love to exit higher- when just the other day every one wanted to buy any pullback.

PRE MARKETS

Futures a way down this morning (way off the lows) on the heels of the GM/Waggoner news and why shouldn't the gov fire Rick- he has a crummy record and apparently approved a crummy plan-

NQ futures down 22;

ES futures down 18;

YM futures down 165;

Levels to watch - the 800/805 area on the SPX as it may be a level where buyers return as that was old resistance and has now probably become short term support. Also the SPX 50 SMA at/near 792- should be next level of support if 800 area doesn't hold.

Mark Cuban with a twitter money maker;

Is this why C JPM has a good couple of months;

And is NEWSER the future of NEWS?;

LATE LINKS

Great seats for the Mets still available;

Toddo on the real estate time bomb;

Love these charts on Diversification;

Soros agreeing with Rogers;

PIMCO selling Treasuries;

Waggoner GONZO- wonder if twas a precondition for more loot?;

The extremes from Ticker Sense;

Sector trading ranges from BESPOKE;

GOP Comeback without dubya;

The strange Gasparino (too funny);

Wall street on the tundra;

Another GS bailout;

DR BRETT Coaching linkfest;

This guy will do very very well thank you very much;

Remaining Wall streeters - look out;

And from Sy Hersh and the New Yorker;

And the drones the drones;

The most from LinkedIn;

And another Celeb TWITTERER;

And if Louisville was not in your final 4, to you really mind seeing Pitino lose- he just chases the money- and happy to see him go.

THE WEEKEND BARRONS

Some good stuff in Barrons this weekend - first the guys who run the terrific BESPOKE site are interviewed- their model portfolio now 78% equities and 22% cash - What do they see?

1) Current rally led by fins, tech and industrials as opposed to other recent rallies led by energy, materials and telecom- a bullish sign;

2) emerging markets turning up led by China +30% ytd- Brazil +13% and and Indian and Russia out performing US equities;

3) an improvement in earnings revisions;

Specific stock recommendations- INTC MA MO ADM;

Also bullish stories on AMZN, RIG, DO and NE;

Jim Melcher, with a terrific long term record- not keen on the current markets:

In spite of Balestra's strong start this year, Melcher is very bearish about the U.S. and global economies. He believes the current crisis is the worst since the Great Depression. While he supports President Barack Obama's stimulus package, he thinks the government still doesn't grasp what needs to be done. "Policy makers must let the markets clear by themselves instead of trying to reignite more borrowing and spending. Excess stimulus may just create more problems later on."

Melcher believes the problem ultimately stems from previous Federal Reserve policies that ensured plenty of liquidity instead of permitting periodic economic contractions to burn off weak entities and force companies to restructure.

Gene Epstein detailing some stats that may indicate the bottom is in as the economy is starting to turn while David Rosenberg not so sure as he looks deeper inside the stats:

"As Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg points out in a recent commentary, the official keepers of the books have been unusually aggressive in constructing seasonal adjustments for February's economic data.

To illustrate, the seasonal adjustment for new-home sales was the strongest since 1982; for durable-goods orders, the strongest since they were first released in 1992; the retail-sales figures for February were flat (or, as David says, flattering) after such adjustment, but unadjusted fell 3%, the biggest drop on record. He also notes dryly that the 40,000 raw non-seasonally adjusted housing-start total for February "all of a sudden becomes a headline-adjusted annual rate figure of 583,000."

Which makes David think that come the inevitably sharp downward revisions of such distorted data, first-quarter real GDP is likely to suffer a 7.2% drop. Which, together with the 6.3% skid in the fourth quarter of 2008, would be the worst back-to-back contraction in the economy in 50 years."