11.14.2008

THE MELT


Unbelievable and thank goodness for the weekend as the DJIA closed lower by 338, NAZ 80 and the SPX down 38- the biggest loser the RUT- down 7%. The DJIA was higher at/near 30 minutes before the bell- so much for faith.


One could have made lots of money either way - but it takes lots of courage to put on positions as conviction for now is pretty rare.


GM and C the only winners on the DJIA while INTC HD JPM CAT were the biggest losers.


Next week- anyones guess so back to one day at a time.


AFTERNOON TAKE


Another crazy day as the markets sell off /rally/ sell off and repeat and decent money could have been made from both sides.


It feels like the markets want to go higher but I feel more like I want the weekend to start as it is tiring and difficult to follow all the big bars and guess whats next.


The latest rally on the heels of a rumor that C will be slicing 10% of jobs or another 35k- funny how that is good news - but when we talk about bailouts and all the potential job losses at GM F its bad news.


Sectors- metals, large cap value, drugs, utils and bio lead while reits, semis, shipping, retail and oil service lag.


NYSE- 1750 net losers;

NAZ- 1500 net losers;

NDX /OEX 30 GREEN;


VIX- up 5% at/near 63;


Like I said- feels like higher from here but really wanting the weekend to start.


MORNING TAKE


Same old same old - as the markets head lower on the heels of lousy retail sales and a big warning from NOK.


Strong sectors- metals, drugs, biotechs and telecom while emerging markets, real estate, semis and oil service lag.


NYSE- 1850 net losers;

NAZ- 1240 net losers;

NDX- 10 GREEN;

OEX- 15 GREEN;

DJIA- 6 GREEN led by AA GM VZ KO MCD BAC;


VIX- up 4% at 62.25;


Down volume about 8x the up;


Hopefully the buyers show before the markets get very ugly - but after yesterday's big ramp and the move to flat earlier and the sale at those levels - I suspect a tough day for the bulls. Looking to short the rallies on the day.

11.13.2008

THE CLOSE


Hard to believe - markets move way up on the heels of a retest of the recent lows and a crummy earnings report from INTC. The move from -320 on the DJIA to +575 all in just a few hours.


Strong sectors- emerging markets, metals, oils, real estate and shipping while defense, homies and drugs lagged.


NYSE- 1500 net winners;

NAZ- 1300 net winners;


VIX- down 11% at 59;


Heavy volume at 2B shares traded;


RSI (2) mainly in the 65 area;


A difficult market as the lows got bought and markets soared- bottom line pretty difficult for anyone but my guess - shorting will be in vogue before long - like next week.

AFTERNOON REBOUND


I expected a move higher but didn't exepct new lows first and folks waited for the penetration and have now bought pretty pretty big - just doubt its going to hold for very long.


Strongest sectors- oils, shipping, emerging markets, telecom and ags while defense, homies, internets and trannies lag.


NYSE- 350 net losers;

NAZ- 500 net losers;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

OEX- 55 GREEN;


VIX- flat at 66;


Light volume with up and down about equal;


I suspect folks will look to get this short this ramp as that is what usually works - especially since we have gone through the old lows -

THE HOPE



That chart of GE not making me warm and fuzzy as this thing may start looking more and more like AIG-

THE OPEN


Markets bouncing between green and red with a slight bias to the north side.


Strong sectors include emerging markets, utils, energy, semis and gaming while homies, internets, trannies and tech lag.


NYSE/NAZ flat internals;

NDX- 55 GREEN;

OEX- 70 GREEN;


VIX- down 2% at/near 65;


Up volume 2X the down;


Oil and gold slightly higher;


Looking for a move higher today and will be buying buying the dips SSO QLD DDM DIG.

11.12.2008

THE CLOSE


Another brutal day as the DJIA/SPX/NAZ closed about 5% lower while the GOOG closed with a 2 handle and off about 7%- and a long way from the $700 number every one used to love.


All sectors were weak with the worst being metals, shipping, internets, energy, gaming and brokers.


NYSE- 2600 net losers;

NAZ- 2100 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 10 GREEN between the two indexes;


VIX- 66.5 and higher by 8%+ and about 13% over the SMA 10;


Medium volume with down about 25x the up;


RSI (2) levels pretty low at:


SPX -7;


DJIA 6;


NAZ -5;


RUT - 4;


So pretty pretty low RSI numbers and of course tomorrow is another day- after three ugly days in a row- so the music of the market may call for a rally - but we will wait until then to decide on the course of action.


THE UGLY




Another very ugly day as the minor bounces get sold and a close at/near the lows is to be expected.

Semis, utils, drugs and telecom doing less worse than the bad such as shipping, internets, gaming and metals.

NYSE- 2455 net losers;

NAZ- 1900 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 10 winners between the two indexes;

VIX- higher by 7% at/near 65.6;
Down volume about 15X the down;

Ugly is uly and the small caps act the worse which doesn't give me much confidence for any kind of bounce into the close- also the VIX about 25 points under the recent high while the SPX about 20 points above the recent lows- so a new low on SPX appears to be coming in front of a lower VIX - which is not bullish IMVHO.

THE OPEN


Markets open lower on the heels of ugly news from BBY- and AXP converting to bank status- TARP for everyone.


Strongest sectors include banks, semis and drugs while shipping metals and real estate lags.


NYSE- 1800 net losers;

NAZ- 1030 net losers;

NDX- 13 GREEN;

OEX- 7 GREEN;

DJIA - GM the only green;


VIX- higher by 5% at/near 64.5;


Down volume 7x the up;


In light of the weak open and weak markets of the last few days - I am looking to flip from short to long and have sold off my SDS near the open- interesting opportunities in DIG as it appears to be ready for a bounce if there is any bullish news at all in the inventory numbers.

MORN with 5 stocks you don't want to own and how is Warren doing with those warrants?

11.11.2008

THE CLOSE


Markets closed above the lows after good news came from Blackrock, FRE/FNM and Pelosi- and the market rallied on all that news and we went back down-


Strong sectors included - utils, drugs, semis and trannies with metals, oils, gaming and shipping being the worst.


NYSE- 1920 net losers;

NAZ- 1400 net losers;


VIX- 61.5- and up 2.25% on the day;


Light volume with down way more than up;



The good news didn't hold the markets up for long as they closed about 200 off the best levels of the day on the DJIA- turn around Tuesday tomorrow- I doubt it - as I suspect we continue lower.

SAME OLD SAME OLD


Markets continue to move lower with the "short the pull ups" the coining the money strategy.


Market internals continue terrible and all the sectors red.


Green stocks- WYNN CEPH AMLN MCHP TEVA LLTC EXC STT V LM ;


Biggest losers- HIG S TYC MS AES AIG F CI BHI AA NOV FMCN DISH LINTA NIHD BIDU MICC FWLT SHLD VRSN GRMN;


Big issue on what to do with GM - let it fall and ramifications of unemployment and all kinds of leasing/warranty/parts issues- give them money and its probably a bottomless pit.




THE USUAL


Markets open lower and the DJIA is down 240, NAZ 39 and SPX 25.


Strongest sectors include banks, semis, drugs and utils while metals, emerging markets, oil sevice and ags lag.


NYSE- 2150 net losers;

NAZ- 1260 net losers;

NDX- 8 GREEN;

OEX- 8 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 6% at/near 64;


Down volume 12X the up;


Starting out ugly again and don't have a very good feel- waiting but my suspicion is if we get some lift in the major indexes I will look to fade it via SDS DXD TWM QID.