THE CLOSING BELL

A less than fascinating day in the markets as the major indexes chopped around and finally closed slightly in the green.

Market internals flattish on the NYSE and a bit better on the NAZ with 500 more winners than losers.

NDX- 75 GREEN;

OEX-58 GREEN;

IBD- 27 GREEN;

IBD 20- 1 GREEN- IBM with 19 red as the list is dominated by big cap energy- the biggest losers- HES NUE CSX WFT NOV NXY CNQ ECA SWN;

VIX- down 2.7% and trading at 18.08 -2% above the SMA 10;

TRIN- .99- Up volume a hair more than down and light;

GOLD- $920;

CRUDE- $130.55;

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 25

DJIA 21

NAZ 36

NDX 26

RUT 48

MID 27

Like I said this morning- not expecting much in the way of movement and that proved to be a pretty good guess.

The SMA 200 and 50% retracement on the NDX/QQQQ has held for now but I expect pretty much dead cat type action going forward which will probably be shorted unless oil can get some jig to the downside.

I am out tomorrow so the fun will start up again on Tuesday for this fish.

MORNING FLOAT

Markets are trading higher led by the "tech heavy NAZ" with the DJIA up 27, NAZ +12 and SPX +4.

Strongest sectors- airlines, steel, ags, banks and gaming while shipping, oil, metals, utils and real estate lags.

Key stocks- MON POT C DECK TIF NVDA WYNN green while UA V ISRG BIDU MER RIMM CAT all red.

NYSE- 660 net green;

NAZ- 700 net green;

NDX- 75 GREEN;

OEX-60 GREEN;

IBD- 45 GREEN;

VIX- down 2.5% at 18.15;

TRIN- 1.01- Up volume 1.5X down;

GOLD- 921;

CRUDE- 133;

The NDX is rebounding off the SMA 200 and the 50% retracement while the SPX is going along for the ride despite the downgrade by BOVE this morning. He downgraded MER LEH GS all to sells and they opened way down but have since recovered a bit.

I don't expect much movement today and tomorrow and I will be bailing this evening for a few days and will be back on Tuesday.

THE CRUSH

Not surprisingly the markets closed at/near the lows of the day with the DJIA closing down 225, the NAZ- 43 and the SPX -22.

All the major sectors closed in the red with airlines, homies, brokers, gaming and steel acting the worst.

NYSE- 1300 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

NDX- 7 GREEN;

OEX- 8 GREEN;

IBD-23 GREEN;

VIX - up 6.5% to 18.7 and trading 5% above the SMA 10- hardly over bought enough to get very excited;

TRIN- 1.83- with heavier volume than usual at 1.3 B shares traded with Down volume 4X up;

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 6

DJIA 6

NAZ 5

NDX 4

RUT 6

MID 7

Note that in spite of crude moving up to near the $134 level the OIH sank over $4 to under $214 and the XLE also down 1.6% to under the $89 area.

Looks like next area of support for the longs is 48 on the QQQQ as it has been recent support and is the 50% retracement from the 55 high and 41 recent low- 48 also the SMA 200.

Support on the SPX at 1380 area and the 38.2 retracement area-

Congrats to anyone who jumped aboard the SKF long - was a big gainer today for this fish.

MIDDAY MUSE

Markets are trading lower with the largest of the big caps - the DJIA being the worst of the major indexes down 85, the NAZ -6 and the SPX -4- RUT/MID always touted on CNBC- both trading in the green and don't look now but MID solidly green for the year.

Strongest sectors- metals, oils, shipping, utils and small caps while homies, brokers, financials and banks lag.

NYSE/NAZ - flat internals;

NDX- 35 GREEN;

OEX- 35 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;

VIX- down 1.4% at 17.33;

TRIN- 1.45 with Down volume about 1.5x up;

Love the CNBC analysts this morning like Michael Farr- saying that oil should only be about $80 with the rest of the price attributable to speculation- I will bet if you went to the videotape, when oil was $50/$60 Michael said it should only be $28 with the rest of the price due to speculation.

If CNBC ran the videotape on these gurus- there would be not gurus to put on TV.

And how bout that great reporting this AM that SUV's are hard to trade or sell and prices are dropping rapidly- just fascinating stuff.

Markets getting hit by Crude which is up $3.3 on the day to $132.3;

Gold silently moving back up and now at /near the $930 level;

Not much interest in getting long the major indexes yet as the financials trade lousy and until that changes - not gonna dip. Did however get in on the SKF long and that is working well.

MORNING LOOK

Markets are generally lower as the crude oil build sent oil back near the $130 level after it came in a bit. The DJIA -61, NAZ flat and SPX -2.

Strongest sectors include metals, utils, shipping, small caps and drugs while homies, brokers, financials, biotech, steel and retail lag.

NYSE- 370 net winners;

NAZ- 430 net winners;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

OEX-43 GREEN;

IBD- 50 GREEN;

VIX- flattish;

TRIN- 1.74- with declining volume about 1.5X the advancing;

Gold -926;

Crude-130.5;

10 year Note- 3.81%;

Looking to short financials on bounces here and looking to buy more oil service - RSI (2) levels getting there but probably sill going lower- now around 14 on SPX and 9 on the WEAK DJIA.

PRE MARKETS

Futures are trading lower as I type although near fair value in spite of $130+ crude prices +$1.2 and gold also moving up at $926- higher by $6.

Some links to start the day:

Dr. Brett on the financials;

The TRADER MIKE recap;

Bernie on the longer term moving averages;

BESPOKE on the issue of VOLUME;

The latest SPX strategist price targets;

VIX in the middle of its recent range - RSI (2) levels oversold but not at buy levels- Breadth moving averges- middle of the range-ARMS index moving averages middle of the range- no reason to load the boat just yet.

I suspect in the short term the markets will trade inverse to crude and any dip in crude may rocket the markets higher- so lets see.

TECHNICALS- THE SHARK

Technical issues across the board as Verizon FIOS was out all morning so trading here- But an update is as follows:

Down volume 2.5 X Up;

TRIN- 1.22;

VIX- higher by 6.4% to 18.07 and now trading even with the SMA 10;

GOLD - 920;

Crude- 129;

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 20

DJIA 16

NAZ 14

QQQQ 16

RUT 14

MID 29

OIH 94

XLE 96

BKX 7

XLF 6

XBD 10

Not nervous that we are going back to the March lows but not ready to buy yet- but watching and if we dip again tomorrow and the numbers get to buy levels I will probably buy the dip.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed the day mixed with the DJIA closing +41, NAZ -13 and SPX +1.

Strongest sectors oils, internets, utils, metals and telecom while gaming, ags, brokers and homies lagged.

NYSE- 230 net losers;

NAZ- 525 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 55 GREEN;

IBD -50 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 4% at 17.12;

Up volume flat with down with overall light volume;

TRIN- .87;

Markets still over bought even with the big PM sell off and not ready to buy as I think there is a bit more downside here.

Both the SPX and the DJIA climbed above their respective SMA 200 and closed at/near them despite the sell off. The NAZ also closed right at the SMA 200- how now- I suspect not much in either direction for a while but eventually we resolve to the upside.

MIDDAY THOUGHTS

Markets have sold off again just like they did on a strong day last week. The DJIA has rapidly lost 100 of its 150 point gain, the NAZ- down 11 and the SPX up 3 after being higher by 15.

Sectors acting best include internets, utils, trannies and defense while ags, gaming, financials and tech lag.

NYSE- flat internals after being way bullish;

NAZ- 440 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

IBD- 55 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 3% at 17 and still way oversold at 8% under the SMA 10;

Up and down volume approaching equalibrium;

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 97

DJIA 92

NAZ 51

NDX 49

RUT 43

MID 74

Still in over bought territory although big falls on the RUT and the NAZ/NDX over the past few hours.

This fish will wait for better entry points for longs- Not going to put out lots of index shorts as I suspect this sell off won't last all that long.

OPENING UP AGAIN

Markets are trading higher with the DJIA +55, NAZ +12.5 and SPX +7.5.

Leading sectors include trannies, internets, semis, banks and tech while gaming and biotech are in the red.

Key stocks-30/40 green led by AMZN UA BIDU NVDA ICE and V while LVS MSFT CELG AAPL MGM and MON are red.

NYSE- 575 net green;

NAZ- 215 net green;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX-75 GREEN;

IBD- 75 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 1% at 16.67;

Up volume 2.5 x Down volume;

Markets seem to not want to let dippers in as we are moving on up from very over bought levels as most major indexes now above all the major moving average lines.

MORE STRETCH

FWIW- the QQQQ now stretched more than 9% from its up trending SMA 50 and that hasn't happened since the highs in October of 2007- the SPX also way stretched at almost 5% above and that also happened last at the October highs.

So with very high RSI (2) readings, low VIX numbers and over bought breadth ratios the market is probably due for a bit of a breather this week.

Barron's this week with some interesting stuff:

Doug Kass with his short picks including - BRK.A CL K GIS DHR HSIC PDCO FAST;

Dougie anticipating less cosmetic dental surgery, declining profits at insurers and consumers trading down to generic brands as his rationale for shorting the above symbols.

In Ableson's column, T2 Partners with their rationale why BRK.A is a buy-

"The bottom line, to invent a cliché, is that Berkshire Hathaway, by T2's reckoning, is roughly 20% undervalued. Assuming 10% growth in the intrinsic value of the business and a cash buildup of $6,000 per share over the next 12 months, they're looking for total intrinsic value of $178,700 per share, or a 46% premium to today's price of the stock. And peering further out, within two years, based on the same reasonable assumptions of growth and cash additions, the magic number could rise to over $200,000."





Bullish commentary on ABB KFT ORCL CLX;





Links:





BESPOKE on the CNBC oil interview with TRUMP and the % of stocks above the SMA 50;





Dr. Brett on a "real time market sentiment gauge";