11.21.2008
Victory for the dip buyers at last as the DJIA closes +500 and the SPX +48 with the DJIA over the 8k mark and the SPX over the 800 line.
The naming of the Obama team seems to have caused the rally and who cares why but up is up.
Market internals were red most of the day but flipped in the final hour of trading while volume was about 4/1 to the upside and heavy at 2.2 B shares.
Sectors- strength in metals, emerging markets, oils, ags, utils real estate and internets while shipping, biotech, banks and gaming lagged.
VIX- down 11% at 72;
Gold- +$55 at near 800- and who knows why that is acting so well- .
Back at it next week and would anyone be shocked by a sell 800/8000 next week- we will try again next week - and how about a deal for C before the weekend?
THE OPEN
The gap has been faded - now lets see how the theory works - the bad news C JPM BKX all way down with the recent weakness in JPM being the newest worry for investors/traders.
Strong sectors- metals, emerging markets, ags, internets and oils while banks, shipping and biotech lag.
NYSE/NAZ flattish internals;
NDX/OEX- about 70 green on each;
VIX- down 6% at near 75;
Gold moving on up at 775;
Crude- flat at 49.7;
The gap is now filled with the RUT the usual - the worst- lets see if this gets bought- if so it could be the buy a dip day for the first time in quite a while.
THE GAP
Markets are set to gap higher at the open on the heels of a 10% sell off the last few days and higher markets over seas.
Best guess- fade the fade- wait for the shorters to fade the gap - and when/if that fails look to buy-
John Rogue on how the best of the best are doing this year;
BESPOKE on the big race;
11.20.2008
THE AFTERNOON
Markets have been all over the chart as the 2002 lows were tested and we ramped on the heels of news that "some" Senate leaders thought some type of bail out plan for GM F was reached.
Well not so fast as the markets sunk when John Harwood reported that Nancy Pelosi was against the deal and it would not pass in the House-
Anyhow, a tough day to trade as I suspected - shorting didn't work out and buying the move higher probably didn't work out well either-
NYSE- 1700 net losers;
NAZ- 1000 net losers;
NDX- 45 GREEN;
OEX- 30 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 2% at 76;
Gold continues to move higher - $750;
Crude - 51- as the cheer leading for lower oil continues - of course demand destruction from the global economic crisis. So we were all probably better off at $100 oil.
Sectors working include metals, internets, semis and retail while oils and gaming lags.
Afternoon take- leaving early for some errands but would look to the short side as I don't think this bail out talk will end happy and the market will not like that.
THE OPEN
More of the same as the markets sink lower and SPX 780 (October 2002 lows) here we are-
Strongest sectors - they are all awful - internets, semis and telecom.
NYSE- 2466 net losers;
NAZ- 1540 net losers;
NDX- 20 GREEN;
OEX - 10 GREEN;
VIX- up about 6% and near 80;
Gold continues to hold steady near $735;
Crude- near 51;
Banking index down 5.5%, C down 16% GS down 11% and GE no longer a teenager and at $12.89-
Feels like shorting here is NOT the right strategy depsite its continuing success (shorting pull ups)- so I am expecting a bunce and that bounce may not get sold so fast as I suspect this big dip has happend too fast- not buying but standing aside.
More Sunshine from Roubini;
And investing in Cramerica.
11.19.2008
MORE USUAL
There it was again another close at the low as the trade remains the same- short the pull ups and close them out into the end of the day. The markets gave plenty of opportunity for that trade and the internals never gave a hint that today was to be different.
The big caps were ugly but the RUT was absolutely awful- with the futures down about 9.5% as the crash in small caps continues.
RSI (2) levels at near 10 - so a rally from the DJIA 8000 level and the SPX at 800 may give some traders a buy signal- also note the lows from Oct 2002/ March 2003 at/near 780 on the SPX- so big support for those with any cash.
ANOTHER SWOON
Back in the game today as market internals told the story early - short pulups - and often. DJIA now down 200+ while the SPX is down 30+ and near the next support area of 825.
All sectors are in the red with the RUT the biggest index loser - and the TWM the best stock since the 90's bull market.
Probably a little rally into the afternoon but after 3- probably the usual and close at/near the lows - also the usual.
Flat on my daytrades as I type but looking for that next rally to get short TWM QID DXD SDS in that order.
NYSE- 2500 net losers;
NAZ- 1900 net losers;
VIX- ripping higher at 72.75 +7.6%;
And of course GE down 7% +; GS down 6% and C down another 15% on the day.
Mullaly and Waggoner- do we really want to trust a huge bailout to those guys - and why is it that every American auto manufacturer has gone bankrupt or is on the verge?
THE OPEN
Markets open mixed chopping around between green and red but GM - noticably weak this AM as the big guy probably didn't impress the base.
Anyhow, the key to the market continues to be the internals and if you follow those trading should be ok and it is my plan- this AM- red 1300 on the NYSE and red 500 on the NAZ.
NDX/OEX about in line with the overall numbers- so look for lower prices on the indexes.
Sectors- strength in metals, internets, biotech and utils while real estate, brokers, shipping and banks are weak.
VIX- flattish at 69.6;
What I want to know and would like one of my reps to ask is - If you are blaming the recent problems on the "extremely weak economic environment and global financial crisis" - what happens if it lasts much longer than everyone expects - like 24 or 36 months- how do I get my money back? Hmmmmmm.
How about this idea- let the HONDA/TOYOTA/VW etc. car companies of the world merge with the better GM /F/Chrysler brands -pick up many of the employees/plants and let the government loan money to the solvent companies with the good balance sheets.
Also - Barry bloggin about the PPT- and adios to Scottie who won't be back on TV anytime soon.
11.18.2008
CLOSING RAMP BLAH
Markets closed in the green as the final hour found a nice rally on this typical Turnaround Tuesday-
Sector strength found in oils, drugs, large caps, tech and homies while shipping, brokers, semis and financials lagged.
Awful internals with this turnaround as the NYSE had 825 net losers and the NAZ with 600 net red.
Stronger volume with more down than up and note the RUT/MID's closed red.
VIX- lower by 2% at near 67.65.
Not expecting much continuation to this rally for obvious reasons- and the next shoe to watch is the auto sector as something needs to give soon- just wondering if the worst auto news is baked in the markets cake.
BESPOKE- with more interesting tidbits.
THE BIG C GE GS
Just check the charts as the big C is about to hit a$7 handle, GE down another 4% at/near $15.5 with its big dividend and GS heading towards a $5 handle - and Warren not looking so shrewd with his $100 + warrants on GS and $22.5 on GE- yikes.
Nothing like safe large caps.
And those market internals were very telling this morning- hope it helped.
THE LIGHT
Markets have moved up led by the big caps and the oils while real estate, brokers and semis continue to struggle.
The fly today is the internals as the NYSE/NAZ are about flat while the NDX/OEX are a hair better.
FWIW- not buying into this rally yet as there are too many stocks not participating - BA C GE GOOG BIDU AMAT COST NYX.
Bill from VIX+ on why there may be some light at the end of the tunnel;
MORE USUAL
Markets are trading mixed to lower despite the upbeat chatter from HPQ.
Strongest sectors include internets, metals, oils and drugs while brokers, gaming, ags and telecom lag.
NYSE- 560 net losers;
NAZ- 150 net losers;
NDX - 50 GREEN;
OEX- 40 GREEB;
VIX- flat at 69;
Down volume almost double the up;
Gold 735;
Crude 55;
I don't see much but a steady slow drift lower led by the NAZ/NDX despite the HPQ news- so not so encouraging. The good news if the market does accelerate lower - it may be time to buy a dip in the early afternoon time frame.
Strongest sectors include internets, metals, oils and drugs while brokers, gaming, ags and telecom lag.
NYSE- 560 net losers;
NAZ- 150 net losers;
NDX - 50 GREEN;
OEX- 40 GREEB;
VIX- flat at 69;
Down volume almost double the up;
Gold 735;
Crude 55;
I don't see much but a steady slow drift lower led by the NAZ/NDX despite the HPQ news- so not so encouraging. The good news if the market does accelerate lower - it may be time to buy a dip in the early afternoon time frame.
RSI (2) levels sitting near 20 on most major indexes.
Discussion this morning on squawk about the PPT- surprising one guest mentioned it and even said of course they manipulate the markets- Cashen/Santelli- clearly didn't want to discuss it.
Roger on throwing in the towel;
The Quant on the bad Breadth;
BESPOKE on a stretch;
11.17.2008
USUAL CLOSING
Markets closed at about their lows with accelerated selling into the end of they day.
Shipping, utils and biotech the best sectors while financials, brokers, real estate and gaming lagged.
NYSE- 1650 net losers;
NAZ- 1000 net losers;
VIX- higher by 4% at/near 69;
Weak volume with down better then up 5/1;
The quick take - looks to be a trading range between 820 and 1010 on the SPX - so near the bottom as I type-
RSI (2) levels near 25 on most major indexes so any decent dip should get us near a buy level- also turnaround Tuesday just to throw something else into the pot - and is a GM bankruptcy baked into the market averages? Just wondering - Comments?
THE OPEN
Markets are up and running lower as usual but they have a different feel this morning in light of the pounding they took in the final hour on Friday. NDX/RUT/MID look to be the strongest and are probably flashing a preview of later day action.
Strong sectors- oils, shipping, gaming and small caps while financials, metals, internets and real estate lag.
NYSE- 700 net losers;
NAZ- 100 net losers;
NDX- 25 GREEN;
OEX- 25 GREEN;
DJIA - 4 GREEN led by GM BA XOM MCD- worst includes AA DIS BAC MSFT KO C;
VIX- up 2.25% and near 68;
Crude and natty gas higher 58+ and 6.5;
Gold $735;
Hopeing for that ramp later in the day and one strategy for the day may be long QLD/QQQQ/UWM and short DIA/SPY/SDS as tech and small caps are faring much better than financials.