3.23.2007

CLOSING GREEN

Markets closed mixed with the DJIA higher, the NAZ flat (I think) and the mid caps the best performer +.25%.

Strongest sectors- trannies, oils, brokers, semis, retail, utilities and small cap growth. Laggards- big cap biotech, silvers, drugs, real estate and homies.

Market internals were a net 700 green on the NYSE and NAZ while the OEX/NDX were both a bit over 50/50 to the green. SPX about 320 up and 180 down.

Volatility indexes flat to slightly green and still trading comfortably under the 90% of the 10 day SMA levels.

My trade, the YM, sold at 12,582 (daily resistance), not quite the 12,585 I asked for but close enough as I hung on through the chop and suspected a jig higher as the Brokers / Semis were standouts and the internals were green all day.

Next week, my guess is higher if nothing ugly happens over the weekend (does it ever) as the month/quarter end window dressing / mark ups begin.

CHOPPY DAY


Boring session so far as the major market indexes trade a bit above the flat line. The Mid Caps are winning the battle today and also on the year as they are +6% as I type.

Sector winners continue to oils, semis, trannies, brokers, retail, real estate, defense and large cap value. Losers include big cap biotech, silvers, drugs, metals, internets,airlines, tech and software.

Key stocks are mixed with brokers mainly green; exchanges mainly red and big cap tech reddish not counting the semi group.

Winning stocks include GM NSC EMC NSM BNI AEP WY MEDI HAL WFMI SNDK PETM NTAP and LRCX.

Losers- AMGN DNA PCAR QCOM JNPR EBAY AKAM ADSK INFY WMB DIS ABT S BMY and ATI.

Market internals - net 600 in the green on the NYSE and NAZ.

OEX about 55/45 up to down while the NDX is 60/40 green to red and the SPX about 320/180 green to red.

Volatility indexes also flattish and now trading about 12/13% below their respective 10 day SMA's.

Not expecting much other than chop for the balance of the day and I do have some YM long that I anticipate dumping into the next ramp; hopefully above the 12,585 level.

THE HOMIES


Markets are trading higher as some good news regarding home sales hits the tape.

Strong sectors include oils, gaming, trannies, banks, semis, retail and brokers. To the downside are big cap biotech, silver stocks, MSFT, real estate, drugs, tech and utilities.

Key stocks are generally mixed with the techs lower led down by MSFT AAPL and GOOG while most of the brokers/xchanges are green

Market internals have improved from the open and now show a net 700 green on NYSE and net 225 green on the NAZ.

Surprisingly, with the tech sector acting doggy, the NDX internals show 70/30 green to red while the OEX is about 3/2 up to down. The SPX about 340 up to 160 down.

Volatility indexes basically unchanged as the VIX/VXO combo trade near the 12.5 level.

The OIH has headed straight up of late and keep in mind the last time it was up here it hit its had right at 150; just a couple of bucks away and maybe a preview of coming attractions.

Not sure if anyone caught the Abbey Joseph Cohen interview, but some great insight as she remains bullish on the SPX and recommends "selected capital goods companies." That could be just about anything and the dopey CNBC "journalists" refuse to call her on this nonsense as she repeatedly comes on TV and offers nothing of any use to viewers. I know, unlike the other guests.

3.22.2007

FLAT FINISH


Markets close out the day near where they opened with small cap growth and the mid caps being the best performers on the day. The NAZ and tech were hit by the MOT warning from last night.

Strongest sectors included oils, metals, gaming, biotechs and small cap growth. The weakest groups were airlines, semis, tech, banks, homies and brokers.

Market internals closed with slightly more winners than losers while the OEX closed with 43 up and 57 down; the NDX 2/1 down to up and SPX 2/3 up to down.

Strong stocks included EMC COP WMB CVX XRX ORCL EP and SLB while weak links were NSM RTN EXC EK GD TWX TXN CSCO and MEDI.

Volatility indexes a bit higher and now trading about 15% below their respective 10 day SMA's.

The market gave a little volatility to the day trader so buying lower and selling higher worked somewhat. I expect more of the same tomorrow and maybe back down to SPX 1410 before the quarter end mark ups take us back up.

FLAT TO FLAT


Markets trade flattish into the afternoon session with the big caps leading and the NAZ/Tech trailing.

Strongest sectors include oils, silvers, gaming, metals and biotechs. Weaker are airlines, semis, tech, defense, banks, real estate, utilities and software.

The DJIA/Big caps are being led by XOM COP CVX SLB ORCL XRX BHI PG and T.

Laggards include RTN NSM EXC GD TWX INTC INTU BRCM UAUA FLEX MXIM and SBUX.

Market internals are also flattish with a net 200 green between the NYSE and the NAZ.

The NDX/OEX are evenly split between winners and losers while the SPX has slightly more losers than winners.

Key stocks a mixed bag with the CME standing out to the upside and most others flattish.

Volatility indexes flattish.

I went long the YM Futures near the 12520 level and am looking to sell into any afternoon tick rip higher. Just a day trade as I don't expect much upside from these overbought levels.

THE FLEECE


Markets open lower after trading higher in the pre market on the heels of yesterdays big push netting some pretty overbought conditions.

Strongest sectors include oils, gaming, silver stocks, brokers, metals, biotech and gaming. To the downside, airlines, software, tech, semis, internets, trannies and small caps.

GS MER MS BSC flat and AAPL GOOG MSFT INTC MA C BAC lower.

Market internals are red 150 on the NYSE and red 250 on the NAZ.

The OEX/NDX tandem shows 3 up for every 7 down while the SPX has about 180 up and 320 down.

Strong stocks include SLB CVX WMB BHI PG PTEN IACI MNST LVLT and SNDK.

Weak stocks - INTU FLEX BRCM UAUA LLTC CELG AKAM NSM RTN DOW EXC MSFT GD and CSCO.

Volatility indexes generally higher but not much movement and still solidly oversold.

The SPX is stretched way over its short term moving averages (13/21 day SMA's) and I expect to buy at lower prices.

3.21.2007

CLOSING RIP


Markets rallied in the PM on the heels of a percieved change in the Fed bias away from tightening.

Sector leaders included silver stocks, brokers, emerging markets, airlines, software, metals, homies, biotech, semis, banks and internets.

Market internals screamed green with the NYSE +2,130 and the NAZ +1,465.

The OEX/NDX indexes closed with 95 higher and 5 lower while the SPX was 465 green and 35 red.

Strong stocks - MS MEDI MER ORCL GS NVDA ADBE ERIC LOGI LINTA and SNDK.

The losers included CTAS INTU BRCM ESRX XMSR WFMI FDX AA TWX HET and HAL.

The real big losers on the day, the VIX/VXO tandem, each sinking to 20% below their respective 10 day SMA's. Yes, that is a big sell signal- along with the 2 day RSI on the SPX/DJIA/RUT complex at 95+.

I mentioned last week before the quick trip that a buying opportunity was at hand when the VIX/VXO combo spiked 30%. I let some longs go today and it may be early, but the name of the game is to make money, not call exact tops and bottoms.

SLOW!!!


Markets continue to trade mixed with the DJIA being the laggard on the day.

Strongest sectors include oil service, software, airlines, brokers, silver stocks, and homies while aussies, gaming, drugs, trannies, banks and utilities lag.

Market internals- uneventful with a net 425 gainers on the NYSE/NAZ and almost a 50/50 split between losers and gainers on the OEX/NDX/SPX major indexes.

Strong stocks include MS MEDI ORCL WMB SLB T MER ADBE SNDK NVDA ORCL and TLAB.

Laggards include CTAS BRCM MNST APOL CDWC FAST ROST DISH FDX TWX AA BAX GD JNJ and CSCO.

The OIH seems to be bumping up against the recent highs at the 142 area as the ETF seems to be rangebound between 142 and 132 of late. A breakout above the level would not be surprising as yesterday's blow up from HAL couldn't drive the bulls away.

The big fed wording is coming up at 2:15 and all the pundits will parse every if/but/is and whatever; so the volatility is enroute but don't expect much headway in either direction.

OPENING CALLS


Markets are trading a bit lower near the open as traders await the Oil patch report at 10:30 est.

Sectors moving higher include silver stocks, airlines, brokers, oils service, internets and tech. Lower sectors include gaming, real estate and trannies.

Market internals on the NYSE/NAZ are flat while the OEX/NDX combo shows 40 up and 60 down while the SPX has 200 up and 300 down.

Strong stocks include MS ORCL WMB MEDI GE GOOG MER ORCL SNDK and NVDA.

Weak stocks include CTAS MICC EXPD LLTC BRCM FDX TWX AA UPS LTD and AEP.

Volatility indexes, a bit higher with the VIX/VXO combo back near the 13.5 levels and near the 90% of the 10 day SMA sell level.

Thats about it as we are shaping up for what looks like a pretty boring day on the street.

3.20.2007

CLOSING WORRIES


Markets closed near their highs with the madcap/Small cap group leading the way.

Strongest sectors included gaming, airlines, real estate, utilities, my ASCII index (EWE), tyrannies, seams, integrated oils, biotech and small caps. Weakest included oil service GOGH and INTAKE.

Market internals closed very strong with a net 1,400 green on the NYSE and net 920 green on the NAG. The OWES had 85 out of 100 in the green; the NDIS 75 out of 100 green and the SPEC about 380 up to 120 down.

Strong stocks included CSS AFT TWX EPA EXE SANDS ADOBE JUNIPER and GILD while CATS LAMAR MEDIA RIME PATEN HAL and HIPS were weak.

Volatility indexes dipping into overkill territory (again) and trading nearly 15% below their 10 day smash. The 2 day RSI on the DAIS/SPEC/RUT is 86/89 and 87 respectively. Sell signals are there so maybe we get to the 1,415 level. I am not ready to short but cash maybe a good spot at those levels.

And for amusement purposes, please note the following:

The Mid Cap index - year to date +4.4%

The Small Cap index - year to date +.8%

The Big Cap DAIS - year to date -1.4%

The Big Cap OWES (SPEC 100) year to date -2.4%

The Big Cap SPEC 500 year to date -.5%

So, surprisingly all the pundits who have called for big cap outperforming for years are even wrong in a down to choppy market.

Also, check some of my recent value picks, COT FESS BAM and JOE. Lots of value and good real estate and its interesting to see how well they are holding up.

One other note, COMBS yapping all day about the potential end of the supreme crisis. They have got to be kidding; the folks who took out these mortgages at the peak of the bubble (2004/2005) are just getting their rates adjusted (3 year ARMS). So with lots of these loans the "no money down" variety; and with the teaser rate gone and a crummy real estate market why would this be the end of the crisis. Sounds like just the beginning as the folks who have increasing payments and no equity or negative equity tell the lender "take it, its yours."

HALF TIME


Markets continue to drift higher at the half way point with the DJIA +50, NAZ +15.5 and SPX +7.5. The SPX is at its Post Feb 27 high at the 1,410 level and only 5 away from my near term target.

Strongest sectors- metals, airlines, gaming, trannies, biotech, oils, brokers and financials.

Notables in the red include GOOG BOT SLG MEDI NESM CCU HON WY LAMR CELG and RIMM.

Market internals have strengthened and now show a net 1,300 green on the NYSE and net 835 green on the NAZ.

The NDX with 85/15 green to red; OEX and SPX both with 80/20 up to down.

Strongest stocks include ORCL CSC EP ATI MS AVP SNDK JNPR GILD MRVL and LINTA.

Lagging DJIA stocks include HON HPQ VZ INTC and GE.

HAL just warned bringing the OIH/Oil service sector tumbling with it. Nothing like a home run pick from Cramer.

Volatility indexes down about 6% and trading under the "10% below the 10 day SMA level" again. The 2 day RSI on the SPX, back near 90 - so hear are/come the sell signals.

MORNING MARKETS


Back from a short vacation and the markets are a bit higher then when I left last Wednesday.

Today, markets are a bit higher with strongest sectors coming from metals, airlines, trannies, biotech, semis, retails, financials and brokers. Leading lower real estate, oil service, emerging markets, internets and utilities.

Strong stocks include ICE CME PAAS SSRI CSC EP AVP CAT and ATI while weakest include MEDI WY F COP NSM HON LAMR CELG RIMM and NIHD.


Market internals are flattish with about 650 net green on the NYSE and NAZ.

The OEX/NDX combo are a bit better with 3 up to 2 down. The SPX, slightly less than 3/2 up to down.

Volatility indexes have gone back down and now trade about 5% below their 10 day SMA's.

My target on the SPX remains at the 1,415 level; half way between the recent high and low. I will rethink it when/if we get there.