CLOSING HAPPY

Back at the turret just in time for the closing prices. Markets had a powerful up day for a change with the DJIA +205, NAZ +51 and SPX +24. The easy trade and the bullish try finally came through nicely as the "buy the dip" strategy may be back in play.

Strongest sectors were the usual suspects, oils, metals, tech, emerging markets, brokers, homies and insurance while semis, gaming, airlines, utils and biotech were higher but lagged.

Key stocks- mostly higher led by RIMM MS AAPL GS DECK TIF MA NYX MCD and INTC while CELG VMW ICE WYNN BG MGM MO POT and BIDU closed red.

NYSE/NAZ internals+2,700;

NDX-75 WINNERS;

OEX-95 WINNERS;

IBD 100-83 WINNERS;

WINNERS- RIMM MICC HMSY KOP AGU VIP BUCY HDB STP SDA LEAP PCAR CHKP APOL STLD JOYG INTU AAPL MS ATI SLB COF ALL IP WY GS LEH;

LOSERS- S MO EXC DELL TYC CELG SIRI LVLT VMED BRCM SNDK CEPH WYNN LINTA MRVL PETM JAVA ERTS;

VIX-down 10% to the 18.5 level and trading more than 15% under the 10 day SMA- SELL SIGNAL;

RSI (20) on major indexes:

SPX 92

DJIA 91

RUT 94

NDX 94

NAZ 94

Technically, the SPX is getting to major resistance near the 1,490 level, which was the blast off level from the September 18, first rate cut. It has acted as resistance numerous times since the middle of November.

I will probably be selling my index longs next week and look for better opportunities to reload.

CLOSING HIGHER

Markets closed higher led by the tech heavy NAZ/NDX as AAPL AKAM BIDU CSCO EBAY GOOG INTC MSFT RIMM TNL and VMW all powered higher.

Strongest sectors outside of tech included oil service, small caps, biotech, telecom, large cap growth and defense while airlines, insurance and bank lagged.

NYSE- 330 net winners;

NAZ- 740 net winners;

NDX -75 WINNERS;

OEX-60 WINNERS;

IBD 100-75 WINNERS;

VIX -lower by 5% and trading about 7% under the 10 SMA;

Up volume a bit ahead of Down volume and total volume was fairly light;

My QQQQ trade from Monday is now solidly in the green as the QQQQ is up about 2.5% on the day. I will watch it tomorrow but probably leave it on into next week.

RSI (2) on various indexes as follows:

SPX 64

DJIA 55

NAZ 82

NDX 83

QQQQ 84

RUT 84

MID 78

Technically, the SPX is above recent support at 1,460 and a little below recent resistance near the 1,475 level. The DJIA is about 60 points below the 200 SMA and that has been pretty hard resistance of late.

RIMM earnings being hyped in the after mkt by the usual suspects on CNBC, curious to see how it trades tomorrow although it is way up as I type.

OPENING CLUES

Markets open higher but a close look 30 minutes into trading makes me think this isn't going to hold. The financials started strong on the BSC news but have since flipped to red - check XLF BAC C CFC MA WB WFC BEN ETFC LEH LM MER TROW ICE all red. BSC opened higher and has flipped to red as folks look a bit closer at the huge loss.

Strongest sectors- internets, tech, airlines, reits, gaming, semis and large cap growth while metals, trannies, banks and retail lags.

NYSE- 525 net green;

NAZ- 460 net green;

NDX -70 GREEN;

OEX-60 GREEN;

IBD 100- 70 GREEN;

WINNERS- HRBN SNCR VIP CF RIMM AGU MEE LEAP ORCL CTAS INFY CTSH GENZ ATVI AKAM NXY BAX XRX CI IBM RTN MSFT DELL;

LOSERS- MER AXP WB LEH TGT FDX CELG EXPE PAYX MICC BBBY GSOL ATLS SYNA SNDA SID FTK PCLN DSX;

VIX- down 2% and trading at 21.25 -5% below the 10 day SMA;

The EWA is off about $1.4 but it went X DIV today and a distribution of $1.277 is due on January 2, 2008.

I don't expect much in the way of trading and may head out early to take care of some other business.

MIXED CLOSE

Markets gyrated around most of the day but closed lower on the DJIA/ SPX but higher on the NAZ/NDX/RUT.

Airlines, reits, real estate, brokers, oils and gaming were the winning sectors while trannies, telecom, retail and utils were the biggest losers.

Key stocks mainly higher led by WYNN MA MS UA ICE AMZN NYX and GRMN- lower were CELG TIF MCD MER GE POT C KLAC.

Market internals were a bit red on the NYSE and FLAT on the NAZ- IBD 100 showed about 68 issues in the green;

VIX drifted lower by 4%+;

Up and Down volume roughly equal on light trading;

Gaming stocks got a bid on the heels of good news out of WYNN+5% /MGM+2.6% and ORCL seems to be reporting nice numbers after the bell.

Technically, SPX still sits above the 1,450 level with resistance at 1,465/1,475 area while the DJIA has resistance at the 200 SMA near 13,315. NDX also above support at 50% retracement near 2,025 with resistance near yesterday's high at 2,040.

Probably slow trading the rest of the weak and very slow through the end of the year as there are only a handful of days left to trade. The year end rally will probably have to wait until 2008.

AFTERNOON LOOK

Another crummy day for the bulls as the markets turned lower this morning when SPX had more negative comments on the bond insurers. The DJIA-33, NAZ-3 and SPX -3.

Strong sectors- oils, gaming, brokers, real estate and tech while trannies, retail, telecom, homies, metals, and biotechs lag.

NAZ/NYSE internals- 1,100 net red;

NDX/OEX- 80 green out of 200;

IBD 100-60 green;

WINNERS- HRBN TTES SYNA SID LKQX BOOM LEAP JOYG AKAM JNPR WYNN GRMN NXY MS DELL WMB SLB ROK EK EP IBM;

LOSERS- S ORCL BNI MER RF DIS ALL FDX KOP SXE CPLA BAP CMG SNCR ENS CCH ESRX CELG ETAX SBUX ORCL VMED ESRX LVLT PETM APOL;

VIX- lower by 2% in light of the upcoming holiday;

10 year Bond rising with the rate down to 4.035% as more folks fly to quality.

Down volume 473m- Up volume 324m;

SPX 1,450 continues to hold as I type, not sure it will work into the close but for now its support. DJIA, under 13,200 with decent support near today's lows.

Boring trading but it is what it is as dips getting bought while rallies are sold for now.

OPENING LULL

Markets open slightly higher with the big caps outperforming the smaller brethren as I type. The DJIA +41, NAZ +9 and SPX +6.5.

Strong sectors- financials, brokers, banks, insurance, real estate, airlines and internets while trannies, retail, metals and biotechs are lagging.

Key stocks- about 3/4 of the shares are higher led by MS UA GRMN ICE MA ISRG BAC C NYX DECK- losers- TIF WYNN CELG POT MCD MGM XOM.

NYSE- 270 net winners;

NAZ - 120 net winners;

NDX -55 WINNERS;

OEX-60 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 70 WINNERS;

VIX - lower by 3.5% in front of the holiday week;

10 year Bond- 4.15%;

Technically, DJIA heading up to resistance at its 200 SMA at 13,315 while the SPX looks bullish over 1,450 with resistance at 1,465/1,475.

Minor gains on big cap tech with Semis lagging;

Oil inventory due at 10:30 and the sector is trading slightly higher in front of the news-

THE CLOSE

Markets closed higher in a "whippy" session where new multi week lows were made this morning on the heels of better than expected numbers from GS and some encouraging news from the ECB. The DJIA closed +65, NAZ +22, SPX +9 and the RUT, the biggest winner on the day, +2.03%.

Strongest sectors were- emerging markets, small caps, metals, utils, retails, insurance and biotech while brokers, gaming, real estate and banks were in the red.

Key stocks- 18 out of 40 in the green led by BIDU TIF NVDA AMZN KLAC MTW MSFT INTC AMZN and ISRG- lower were GRMN GS MS LVS MGM DECK MA MER BG C and VMW.

NYSE/NAZ internals- 1,400 net winners;

NDX-the index was +9 or .43% but about 75 out of 100 closed up;

OEX- the index was +3.6 or .53% with 70 winners;

IBD 100-70 green;

Up volume about 2X Down volume;

VIX -down 7.5% and trading on par with the 10 SMA;

Technically, its going to be hard for the markets to get much traction with out the under performing financials as they make up such a big chunk of the SPX. The SPX closed above the important 1,450 level and the next area of resistance is 1,475. Support at today's lows near 1,435.

The NDX wasn't as strong as the SPX because of lackluster action in AAPL CSCO EBAY GRMN SNDK NTAP BRCM INTC and RIMM. NDX continues to trade near the 50% retracement (2,025) and hopefully this will be decent support as I am long QQQQ.

RSI (2) levels came off the mat and now reading are upwards of 35 - so the buy program is off the table and hopefully sales can be made near the 90 level.

ANOTHER NOON SWOON

Still holding my long QQQQ from yesterday and may add later in the week as the markets are very oversold on a short term basis. How oversold?

RSI (2):

SPX 5

DJIA 6

OEX 5

NAZ 3

NDX 3

RUT 4

MID 3

Of course for the trading rules to be active on the long side, the markets need to be in an uptrend and most are not as all now trade under the 50 SMA and most under the 200 SMA.

Volatility indexes again not cooperating as they are mainly lower despite the lower indexes.

Market internals have flipped to red with the NYSE/NAZ showing about 1,000 more losers than winners.

The NDX and the IBD 100 are still showing a like amount of winners and losers while the OEX has many more losers than winners as the financials have all flipped to red.

New list of IBD 20 stocks out this morning and they are also primarily lower- the group includes:

FSLR EMR WFR HPQ SYK XTO GILD PCP LMT DE CME GOOG GENZ AAPL STT NYX MA POT VMW and MOS.

Updating year to date numbers:

SPX +1.6%

DJIA +5.3%

RUT -6.4%

MID +4%

NDX +14.5%

NAZ +6.25%

OPENING TELLS

Markets open higher but still lots of trading trepidation. The DJIA +62, NAZ +15 and SPX +8.





Strongest sectors - emerging markets, metals, telecom, oils, internets and utils while brokers, airlines and banks trade lower.





Key stocks- 27 out of 40 higher led by NVDA UA INTC ICE C KLAC CME MCD NYX and XOM- losers- GRMN MS GOOG TIF GS LVS MGM ISRG MER POT MA.





NYSE- 1,300 net gainers;


NAZ- 700 net gainers;


NDX-80 WINNERS;


OEX-80 WINNERS;


IBD 100-80 WINNERS;





VIX -down a quick 4%;





Market not acting that well despite strong internals as GOOG AAPL RIMM ISRG VMW BSC GS LEH MER MS TROW JPM MA USB WFC all trade lower.





The NDX is also acting doggy up about .28%, well behind the SPX.

And is Cramer's new focus on Long Term investing signalling the beginning of short term rally?

For what its worth, here is Jeremy Siegel's 2008 outlook. Not that different from mine.

Technically, the SPX is above the 1,450 area but not real positive it will stay there as the leading stocks kind of indicate this rally will not hold. Maybe the afternoon will be better as the internals hold up. So the usual mixed tells.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed at/near the lows as most of the recent high fliers got pummeled. The DJIA closed down 173, NAZ -61 and SPX -22.

Retails, insurance and financials were the strongest sectors while emerging markets, airlines, metals and internets fared the worst.

Market internals:

IBD 100-5 WINNERS;

OEX -10 WINNERS;

NDX -15 WINNERS;

Expansion of New Lows as the list has about 360 today;

What a difference a week makes as last Monday the DJIA hit 13,750, almost 600 points higher and only a few percent off the all time highs. Today, gloom and doom.

Technically, the NDX is at/near the 50% retracement, 2,023, between the 1,806 August lows and the 2,240 high from the end of October. The QQQQ, likewise at/near $49.8 between 44.37 and 55.06, so a bounce from these levels over the next week would not be surprising.

All eyes tomorrow will be on GS as they report earnings before the opening bell, estimates at $6.6 and most are predicting they beat the number but the question is by how much and what are the details.

BULLISH TRY

I am going to try an upside trade on the QQQQ as the markets seem a little overdone to the downside. RSI (2) on major market indexes:

QQQQ 7

SPX 10

DJIA 11

OEX 11

NAZ 6

RUT 7

MID 6

A quick check of the short term moving averages of the NAZ internals also showed the market to be a bit overdone to the downside.

VXN up about 7% and brokers out performing so an upside try seems reasonable. Scaling in some now, more near the close and maybe some for later in the week.

NOON SWOON

Markets continue to act poorly as an early attempt at a rally fell flat yet again. The NDX, the best performing major index ytd, is performing the worst of the major indexes as AAPL BIDU CSCO EBAY GOOG HPQ INTC MSFT NVDA RIMM VMW are all down sharply.

Strongest sectors- insurance, brokers, banks, trannies and retail;

Internals- 2,300 net losers on the NYSE and NAZ;

OEX/NDX -50 WINNERS out of 200 issues;

IBD 100- 10 WINNERS as recent high flyers get sold as folks decide to lock in recent gains;

VIX -up 2% and VXN, the volatility index on the NDX up over 7%;

Up volume- 212M

Down volume- 352M

Technically, welcome to the 200 SMA on the NAZ as it trades near the 2,600 level. SPX still hovering above 1,450 and the strength in financials may give us a decent close despite the lousy internals.

THE OPEN

Markets are continuing on their downward trajectory and my purchase of the EWA on Friday isn't looking to good. The DJIA -90, NAZ -21 and SPX -10. No one besides myself and the folks at Barrons seem to think the markets are cheap and should be bought.

Strongest sectors- insurance, brokers, gaming, retail, utils, drugs and banks while airlines, emerging markets, real estate, oil service and semis act the worst.

Key stocks- 7 out of 40 in the green led by DECK BG TIF POT NYX LVS and AAPL while MA INTC MTW AMZN MGM BIDU CAT VMW ICE and CELG act the worst.

Market internals pretty awful with 1,200 net losers on the NYSE and 900 net red on the NAZ.

NDX-20 GREEN;

OEX-20 GREEN;

IBD 100-15 GREEN;

WINNERS- GTI GME POT TISI TEF OTEX OXPS EP MRK NXY ALL LTD EMC HON DELL FLEX LEAP JOYG LBTYA SIAL MRVL TLAB SPLS;

LOSERS- INTC CHKP AMZN FAST INFY ADBE COF SLB USB BHI CAT DOW VZ FSTR SLT NOV TKC MR PCLN HDB;

VIX-higher by 3% -no fear- 7% above the 10 SMA;

Down Volume 3X Up volume;

Markets looking pretty horrible with next area of support at 1,450 area on the SPX- Not sure what is going to turn this tanker around but for now its not pretty.

One glimmer of light is again the action in the financials- they are lower but outperforming so far this AM so maybe just maybe they will turn the boat around.

BARRONS BOUNCE

A terrific edition of Barrons this week as they discuss the current state of the markets and an overpriced BRK stock. Speculation in the article that BRK may reach for the downtrodden MMC.

One item that really caught my eye was the list of the biggest capitalization stocks now and in 2000. Not so surprising to see which companies have come and gone.

Biggest now:

XOM GE MSFT T PG BRK GOOG CVX JNJ WMT;

Biggest then:

MSFT GE CSCO WMT XOM INTC LU IBM C AOL;

My guess is GOOG won't be on the list in 10 years as the can't miss tech co's from yesteryear, CSCO INTC LU IBM and AOL have all been deleted.

Some comments from various strategists mentioned in Kopin Tan's column "A Bullish Call."

Abby Joseph Cohen (GS)- "recession likely will be avoided due to strength in exports and capital spending by corporations and government."

Jonathan Morton- (CS)- "Conditions for a hard economic landing --like slack in the labor market and weak balance sheets --are still largely absent."

Richard Bernstein-(MER)-- U.S. "relatively attractive" compared with many foreign markets.

Tobias Levkovich- (C)- Stocks "screamingly cheap relative to bonds."

Thomas Lee (JPM)- " While the first half may look like death, second half earnings will improve as the rate cuts take effect" and he expects financials to "lead markets higher in 2008 even with the worst of the bad news on SIV's and write-offs still ahead."

Projections for 2008 from the various strategists:-

Larry Adam- (DB) - SPX - 1,640, 10 year Bond 4.75%;

Richard Bernstein (MER) SPX-1,525, 10 year Bond 3.7%

David Bianco- (UBS)- SPX-1,700, 10 year Bond 4.0%

Abhijit Chakrabortti-(MS)- SPX -1,525 10 year Bond 4.5%

Abby Joseph Cohen-(GS)-SPX 1,675-10 year Bond 4%

Jonathan Golub-(BSC)- SPX -1,700 10 year Bond 5.0%

Thomas Lee- (JPM)- SPX 1,590 10 year Bond 5.0%

Tobias Levkovich (C)-SPX 1,675 10 year Bond 4.4%

Tom McManus (BAC) SPX 1,625 10 year Bond 5%

Jonathan Morton (CS)- SPX 1,650 10 year Bond 4.25%

Ian Scott (LEH) -SPX 1,630 10 year Bond-4.2%

Francois Trahan-(ISI Group) SPX 1,750 10 year Bond 4%

Most of the above strategists expect SPX earning to be around $100 for 2008;

Mike Santoli also talks about 2008 in his column and he finds lots of reasons to be bullish including:

1) The Grant Thornton Business Optimism index last week hit the lowest level in its 5 +year history as only 17% believed the U.S. economy will improve (contrary indicator).

2) Short interest up by 1/3 since January;

3) Barrons confidence index, a gauge of credit-risk tolerance at levels last seen in the Spring of 2003 (end of bear market).

4) "Banks have every incentive to try to close their books for the year with all foreseeable write-downs taken."

Michael is especially bullish on media (biased journalism) since the group is down 15% in 2007 and supposedly is as cheap as it has been in decades. DIS OMC GCI CMCSA or the PBS (ETF) are mentioned.

One final note, "seems" like the markets go down about every day, well the truth is pretty clear, we have been in a pretty tight trading range. Check these SMA's on the SPX:

SMA -10 1,490

SMA -20 1,466

SMA -50 1, 497

SMA -90 1,490

SMA -150 1,499

SMA -200 1,487

Recent high - 1,576- October 11, 2007

Recent low - 1,371- August 16, 2007