Markets closed at / near their highs with the exception of the NAZ which opened at the high and sold off for most of the day. GOOG opened in the 490's but closed in the low 480's.
Strong sectors included silver stocks, homies, oils, metals, small caps, biotech and retails; leading lower were airlines while semis closed mixed.
Key stocks that closed in the red included BSC KLAC TIF AMGN LVS MGM PFE SGP and YHOO.
Market internals were very strong with a net 1,850 green on the NYSE and 1,000 net green on the NAZ.
The OEX had the best internals of the big 3 with more than 90 winners while the NDX closed with about 75 in the green; the SPX about 420/ 80 green to red.
Big winners included ISRG LOGI SBUX VRTX GOOG HON CAT AXP ATI and XOM.
Big lowers were COF HAL MCD TWX CCU UAUA ERIC AMLN AKAM BRCM and NTAP.
Volatility indexes finished lower by about 4% with the VIX/VXO in the 11.5/12 range and under their respective 10 day SMA's - but hardly in oversold territory.
The 2 day RSI on DJIA now over 99 while the SPX number is under 95.
I expect a selloff in the markets probably beginning on Tuesday - but I doubt it goes very far as this market may not want to let a lot of new buyers in easily. Besides, whose more scared, the longs or the shorts. Yes- and I continue to hold little in the way of shorts as for what ever reason, there is a demand for equities.
So the markets opened at the highs and have been selling off since as the "fade the gap" traders have coined some quick dough.
The DJIA is +101, NAZ +14 and SPX +8 while the RUT is still the best performer up .85% while the SPX is up .55%. The middies and the OEX are both up about the same as the SPX.
Checking the sectors, silvers, metals, homies, software, small caps, defense, brokers and biotechs are leading while airlines, semis and banks are all trading lower.
Its not a great sign to see the markets way up while the banks and semis are red. Probably a preview of coming attractions so I don't plan on buying as I expect lower prices next week and have sold some individual stocks this AM.
Winners include CAT HON ATI AXP GOOG XRX GD WMB XOM and MRK while COF HAL MCD AMGN BAC TXN PFE and IBM lag.
Market internals also way off their best levels with about 1,500 net gainers on the NYSE and 925 net green on the NAZ.
The NDX internals have also come in and now show about 70 up and 30 down while the OEX is a bit better with 80/20 green to red.
Seven losers on the DJIA and not surprisingly they include GE PFE IBM MO and JNJ.
Also, note the VIX is about flat while the VXO is barely changed. On a day with the DJIA +100, these indexes should be down 5%.
Repeating, I expect lower prices in the middle of next week and I am looking to trim some individual equities and may add to some oil stocks.
Markets open much higher on the heels of good numbers from CAT and GOOG. The DJIA is at another new record high and the selloff from late February remains a distant memory. Subprime What? Inflation, what is inflation? Oh, and by the way, the SPX is now just 80 points away from its all time high. How long before that comes up in discussions?
Strong sectors include silver stocks (SSRI PAAS), metals, homies, trannies, oils, small caps, small cap value, defense, retail and brokers. To the downside, nothing but the worst of the green include airlines, banks, semis and drugs.
Key stocks are all higher led by GOOG GS MER LEH BSC CME ICE PVH WMT MSFT BIDU CSCO FDX CTSH and MRK.
The few in the red include KLAC MO PFE and SGP.
The internals of the major indexes tell a pretty good story as the SPX/OEX/NDX are all over 9/1 green to red. The DJIA, has 26 up and 4 down with CAT HON MRK AXP XOM acting best and MCD PFE MO PG acting the worst.
The internals on the NYSE are as bullish as they get with 2,000 more winners than losers while the NAZ shows 1,400 more winners than losers.
Obviously, the markets are back in overbought territory and as I check the screen the Small Cap Rut is again outperforming the big cap SPX/DJIA. Who would have thought?
That is it for a day that started out low went up and ended up mainly unchanged with the DJIA +5, NAZ -5 and SPX -2.
Strong sectors included biotech, semis, drugs and trannies. Leading lower were silver stocks, metals, airlines, oils, small cap value and gaming.
Down volume beat up volume about 9/5 while the market internals never confirmed a rally. The NYSE finished red -925 and the NAZ red 870.
The OEX/NDX both closed with about 3 red to every 2 green while the SPX was a little worse at 180/320.
Key stocks mainly lower with the exception of GS MS BSC SGP GILD and AMGN. The exchanges were all lower with the CME and NYX the most red.
Winners included AMGN HNZ MEDI BNI INTC BAX HON GILD LLTC AMGN CELG MXIM and APOL.
Big losers included LOGI ERTS EBAY YHOO UAUA VRTX and JNPR.
GOOG is trading up in after hours trading as folks seem to like the numbers/guidance. I have no clue as I stopped following the stocks closely a while ago as it rarely moves.
I don't expect much in the way of upward momentum tomorrow as its the end of a tough weak for both the bulls and bears. Next week the markets may get going again if companies can continue to report good numbers/guidance.
MID DAY LOOK
Markets have improved from their lower opening led by the NAZ and semi stocks but the SMALL/MIDS still act poorly and the market internals on both the NYSE and the NAZ do not give me a warm fuzzy feeling that an afternoon ramp is en route.
The drug group, led by SGP AMGN and GILD remains the strongest while semis, trannies and homies also trade green. Leading lower are silver stocks, metals, gaming, oils, emerging markets, the Aussie (EWA), airlines, real estate and small caps.
Key stocks are mixed with the brokers and large cap tech higher (AAPL MSFT INTC) and the exchanges CME NYX ICE BOT NMX all lower.
The DJIA internals are mixed with HPQ MSFT JNJ GE and INTC higher while CAT MO XOM MCD HD and DD leading lower.
I dipped in and bought some EWA SSRI and MO on the morning weakness and will scale into more shares if they continue to dip.
The VIX is hardly ripping higher but it is up about 3% near the 13 level and trading a bit above its 10 day SMA.
Markets open lower on the heels of what appears to be greater than expected growth in China.
The drugs/biotechs remain strong on some good news from AMGN and strong earnings news from SGP and MRK. Just about all other sectors are lower with silver stocks, metals, emerging markets, brokers, small cap value and real estate acting the worst.
Market internals are very bearish with a net 1,800 red on the NYSE and net 1,500 red on the NAZ.
The NDX has about 15 up to 85 down while the OEX shows 25/75 green to red.
There is some interesting green on the screen including GS MER MA JOE AAPL SGP GILD AZN AMGN EBAY and TXT.
Big losers include LOGI MICC INFY PTEN JNPR XRX MO SLB EP CCU and ATI.
Volatility indexes are climbing but not at high enough levels where I feel like buying the dip. My suspicion is buying this dip to early will not be wise with the internals this ugly.
I did not make it back before the close but I am content with my market call as the RUT/MID groups were lower while the SPX was flat on the day.
Strong sectors included semis, gaming, airlines, brokers, trannies, homies and banks while oils, metals, real estate, internets, tech, and retail were weak.
Market internals were weakish with the NYSE at red 400, the NAZ at red 600 while the OEX was 50/50 and the NDX was about 3 down to every two up.
Winners included JOE DEL JPM IAI GS BSC GOOG INTC MO LVS WYNN LLTC MXIM MEDI XLNX and RIMM.
Losers- YHOO HHH EXPE ISRG INFY SLB IBM CCU DELL ABT GM DD and HD.
To show how deceiving the DJIA is, note that large cap growth was down .25% and 19 of the 30 DJIA stocks closed in the red. In spite of the higher close, the Volatility indexes drifted higher and now sit between 11.75 and 12.4 and I think I will wait em out (higher) before I jump back in to my favorite ETF's.
Markets are set to open lower on the heels of some problems with the YHOO / IBM earnings/guidance. INTC was better than expected and the shares are trading up 30 cents in pre market trading.
Bottom line- markets are overbought as the DJIA is back to all time highs while the SPX took out its recent Feb highs on the heels of strong performance in the energy sector over the past few weeks.
The 2 day RSI on the major market indexes is back to the mid 90 levels while the VIX/VXO combo are at the 11.5/12 levels oversold and near the sell levels.
I sold the balance of my YM DJIA futures and IWM ETF's yesterday and don't expect to buy back for a long swing trade until some time next week as I expect the markets to trade lower or tread water until then.
I will be out running errands most of the day but hopefully back before the close.
Besides the DJIA, markets closed mixed - the DJIA, with the shrewd price weighting of their index- JNJ KO HD CAT and MCD responsible for most of the DJIA gains.
Strongest sectors today included real estate, homies, utilities, retail, biotechs and large cap growth; lower were metals, oils, brokers, small/midcaps, trannies and gaming.
Key stocks were mixed with JPM MA MER NYX ICE BOT all green and GOOG AAPL SMH RIMM KLAC GE MGM and GILD all red.
Market internals turned red in the afternoon as I suspected and the markets feel like they will trade lower for the balance of the week unless some great earnings/takeover news gets it going.
Oils traded heavy today and I expect they will also have a downside trade for a while and then back to leading the market. I added some DVN and will look to add more refiners on any further move lower (VLO TSO FTO).
Oh, and some stocks/etf's one may want to consider on a pullback - FCE.A JOE BAM FLA RWX EWA SSRI VLO SWN FTO TSO DVN PVH TIF MGM IAI AH and TXT.
Another day and almost another record on the DJIA- and how about the RUT- CNBC finally on the RUT bandwagon as they comment its at a new all time high- Well shazam the RUT/IWM are both trading in the red as it is a DJIA/SPX/OEX green only day as I type.
The DJIA is at/near an all time high led by KO JNJ HD AIG and CAT and I don't believe any of them are at new highs.
Strong sectors include real estate, homies, retail, utilities, drugs, biotechs and large cap growth. Weak links include AAPL, brokers, semis, gaming, oil service and trannies.
Market internals are trading about as neutral as they get with a net green by 130 on the NYSE and net red by 250 on the NAZ.
The SPX about 290/210; the OEX 65/35 and NDX a hair better than 50/50.
Big cap winners - VRTX SHLD COST NVDA BDK AES EMC HD and PEP.
Big cap losers- WY BNI ATI NSC F EP TWX CCU NSM TYC and DOW.
I don't have a warm feeling about today's trade and I am taking some longs off the table as I expect lower prices into the afternoon and very little upward momentum for the rest of the week. Besides, the 2 day RSI on the SPX has climbed back to 96 and the VIX/VXO combo are near the 10% under the 10 day SMA number so maybe I will just relax the rest of the week.
Markets trade higher with an S's over N's session developing as the DJIA is +49, NAZ +2 and SPX +5.
Strong sectors include US real estate, homies, reits, retail, drugs, utilities and airlines while silver stocks, metals, brokers, semis, gaming and xchanges lag.
Key stocks generally mixed with MA MER JPM ICE GS BSC green while CME NYX BOT MSFT AAPL GOOG KLAC and GE are trading red.
Market internals are mixed with the NYSE +500 while the NAZ is 125 to the red.
The NDX is about 50/50 while the OEX is about 60 out of 100 green.
Leading the big caps are JNJ KO HD INTC AIG and IBM while AA GE MRK HPQ and VZ are lower.
Winners on the day include BDK EMC BHI BAX AES SO VRTX NVDA COST and SHLD- while losers include PETM AKAM SIRI XMSR SNDK NTAP and CKFR.
And how ugly is this GE with all the talk of it being big caps time to lead and this thing continue to trade lower just about every day. Don't see how the big caps are going to outperform with out GE.
Jack Albin of wherever comes on Bubblevision earlier today and gives us the trade of the day- short IWM / long OEX- well not so great as the small caps outperform yet again +.96% vs +1.44%. My guess is that if you asked him he would have given you the same trade three years ago. Big Caps will outperform. And isn't it nice to see a smiley happy Bob Pisani.
Markets as predicted closed at/near the highs and strong sectors included brokers, banks, non US real estate, internets, homies, small caps, trannies and small cap value. The only sector in the red on my screens- gaming. Also in the red GE and MO.
Winners - GS FLA TRC BAM DEL C JPM WFC AIB IAI MER LEH BSC and CME.
Losers- MGM BA XMSR VLO SWN AA TWX CL WYNN DNA.
Market internals closed very bullish with more than 1,480 net green on the NYSE and more than 1,300 net green on the NAZ.
The OEX closed with 9/1 up/down while the NDX was 8.5/1.5.
Markets are overbought again so my suggestion is to trail the stops and watch closely as I suspect a bad earnings report or two could put a quick end to the rally now that we have come all the way back to the pre meltdown highs of Feb.
And thank goodness AROD isn't making the errors DJ is making- they would run him out of town. Oh wait - he leads the majors in Home runs- and is batting 360 - maybe not.
Markets continue higher with big gains coming in the broker group with GS MER MS LEH BSC all up near 4% while the BKX, which has been lagging of late is up over 2% with big gains in C JPM and WFC (what subprime woes?). And for what its worth, the DJIA usually tops out at 150 points to the upside and the SPX about 15 to the upside on any particular day.
Other strong sectors include internets, retail, airlines, homies, small cap value, trannies, small caps and defense. Weak links include integrated oils and real estate.
Big winners include LEH GS MER BNI MEDI BHI MS APOL AMZN AMLN ROST CKFR CUTR EDU MTOX EVEP CTCDM and ROCM.
Losers- HRT GEF SIMO GROW CCU CL RF HPQ HNZ BA VRTX XMSR BEAS ALTR SNDK and ESRX.
Market internals continue to act well with a net 1,500 green on the NYSE and 1,260 net green on the NAZ.
The OEX is about 9/1 green while the NDX not quite as good at about 8/1. The SPX about 4/1 up to down.
Volatility indexes back down with the VIX/VXO near the 11.5 level and both about 10% below their respective 10 day SMA's. The 2 day RSI on SPX/DJIA also in overbought territory near the 95 level. So the short answer is - trail stops on winners as this rally may run out of gas over the next day or two.
Markets are higher on the heels of good news from C- take out news on SLM and good action in Europe. The DJIA is about 120 points away from an all time high and the SPX is at a new 7 year high.
Strong sectors include banks, brokers, non US real estate, homies, airlines, small cap value, software, small caps, trannies and retail. To the downside - semis, US real estate, oils and some gaming.
Key stocks are primarily higher as MER GS MS LEH C JPM and GOOG are all acting well. To the downside, KLAC SMH and KSS.
Market internals are very bullish with a net 1,600 green on the NYSE and 1,230 green on the NAZ.
The OEX/NDX duo are about 4/1 green to red while the SPX is just a hair under.
Volatility indexes back to oversold/sell levels of about 10% under their respective 10 day SMA's.
On days when the internals and the financials are strong, it usually pays to daytrade and buy dips. That is what I intend to do today.
Some interesting articles in Barrons this weekend but my favorites discussed Big Caps and why they continue to lag and underwhelm investors. Just remember they are the favorite of just about each and every CNBC guest portfolio manager.
Byron Wien's take was interesting and I will quote "Large cap stocks are in a secular decline, on a relative basis, they look attractive because their price/earnings multiples seem low versus where they have been. But their prospects seem diminished compared to what they were. The critical mass of these large cap companies is based in a slow growth economy. It will be hard for them to grow at more than the nominal rate of GDP."
Henry McVey at MS with a little different take "For the large caps to lead, two things have to happen, Credit spreads have to widen and companies have to prove that they are willing to better manage their capital." He also mentions that small/mids have a bid because of leveraged buy outs in that space.
I will go with this, small/mid caps continue to outperform because of better growth prospects and a private equity put. Obviously if one were to take out a public company, the likelihood is it will be a small/mid; back to my original thesis through out the many months of this blog- if you think the markets are going higher buy the small/mids if you think the markets are going lower - go to cash.
So how much have the Big Caps underperformed in 2007:
MID + 8%
That is some pretty ugly underperformance by the big caps and it is fed by the following:
And which sectors have been the places to be invested for 2007:
The Aussie EWA index is up 17.3%, the HHH internet holder ETF is +10.6%, trannie index up 10.4%, OIH oil service holder +10.3% while the XLE oil ETF is +7.5%.
The silver stocks have again been a great place with SSRI +28.7% and PAAS + 25.5%.
RWX is an ETF that tracks Non US Real Estate equities and it is +8.3% for 2007 while the IYR is +3.2%.
Tech has also done pretty average on a relative basis as the SMH is +2.4%; GOOG +1.3% and the XLK tech ETF is +2.7%.
Finally, small cap growth is now the outperformer with a fat gain of +8.8% for 2007 while large cap growth lags at +2.5%; small cap value still red for 2007 while large cap value underwhelms at +1.7%.