There it was - another pre market gap up on good news from Ben and Hank and sold it was. Did I mention resistance above and it was Friday?
Anyhow, the DJIA closed up about 75 after being up double that in the pre markets, NDX -13 after the pre market futures were up 20+ and the SPX closed up 12 after futures were higher by more than 20.
Strong sectors- homies, airlines, banks, real estate, trannies, retail and brokers while metals, semis and tech lagged.
Key stocks- 24 out of 40 green led by MER MTW BAC C POT UA MS MO ISRG and GRMN while RIMM TIF NVDA CELG ICE AAPL BG and KLAC tanked.
NYSE 1150 net green;
NAZ 320 net green;
NDX 50 WINNERS;
OEX 70 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 55 WINNERS;
VIX -22.8 and down 5% - trading about 10% below the 10 day SMA in sell territory;
Up Volume about 4X Down Volume;
Techinals- NDX rejected at the 50 day SMA after GS came out with less that stellar news regarding the tech sector- SPX closed at 1,481, under the 1,490 planned area of resistance- and the 200 day SMA at 1,484. And the DJIA right at the 50% retracement area of 13,370- how bout dat.
Probably higher prices next week after some short term weakness- and congrats to Larry Kudlow who saw the DJIA futs up 150 this AM and predicted a +350 day on the index. Eh no- Markets are over bought and with VIX trading at relatively low levels it wasn't a high percentage trade. RSI (2) way over bought as follows:
Markets are higher but are well off their best levels as the NAZ/NDX continue to come in the hardest on the heels of tech HPQ IBM INTC RIMM all trading in the red.
Strong sectors include homies, banks, financials, airlines, real estate, brokers and insurance while metals, semis and tech lags.
Key stocks- 80% green led by MER BAC UA MS C DECK VMW BIDU CAT and GS- laggards- RIMM CELG TIF KLAC INTC KO SMH BG GE;
NYSE -1990 net winners;
NAZ -1170 net winners;
NDX 65 GREEN;
OEX 75 GREEN;
IBD 100- 85 GREEN;
The VIX dipping to 22.25 and off 7% on the day- 13% below the 10 day SMA - hardly a statistically wonderful time to buy;
Technically, the SPX hit 1,490, a big area of support just a few weeks ago and for now looks like a big area of resistance along with SPX 1500.
NDX- big overhead resistance clearly at 2120, the 50 day SMA.
I think it may be time to take the rest of the week off and revisit the charts for trades next week. Too much resistance here and with the morning gap - feels a bit over done.
In the news, Zander is out at MOT, B of A upgraded VLO, DELL trading down 9% on the heels of last nights disaster and the biggest news of all, Kudlow is bullish.
Looks like I was a bit premature on my sell the news thought yesterday as futures are ramping on the hope of Ben's rate cuts and a deal on sub prime. Next area of resistance on the SPX is in the 1,490/1500 area and just not quite sure everyone who is buying this AM will want to hold in front of the weekend. I also suspect there will be better times to buy next week as the markets rarely go straight up. Remember, volatility indexes are over sold; RSI (2) way over bought and major resistance above.
Markets closed a bit higher as the markets flip flopped between green and red most of the day. The winners generally in tech and energy while the losers were financials. AAPL BIDU GOOG VMW holding the markets up.
Market internals- slightly red on NYSE/NAZ with 600 more red than green;
NDX/OEX just about an equal number of winners and losers;
IBD 100- 55 WINNERS;
VIX -closing at 24- about 8% below the 10 day SMA;
Down Volume a bit higher than Up volume and total volume a bit light at 1.3B;
Technically, SPX ran into resistance at 1,475 area, 50% retracement and see the 200 day SMA at 1,483 - so just wondering if Big Ben's news tomorrow will be sold at these technical levels. Keep in mind most folks know he will lowering rates going forward so only "news" may be bad. Good news probably all in and all known. And yeah that's him.
Markets have moved higher and are near some important technical levels. The DJIA +42, NAZ +8 and SPX +3.
Sector strength- oils, drugs, reits, real estate and tech while airlines, metals, trannies, banks brokers and homies lag.
Market internals - flipped to flat- all around.
Technical levels- SPX at 1,475 about half way between the lows at 1,370 and the highs at 1,575. DJIA, the same, between 12,500 at the low and 14,100 at the high and currently trading between at 13,300. So probably a area of resistance and with the banks/brokers/semis lagging a move lower from here should not surpise anyone.
VIX also lining up with a sell signal at 23.6 and about the magic 10% below the 10 day SMA.
RSI (2) on major indexes- yeah, also sell areas between 85/90 on most major indexes with DJIA/NDX at 88 and SPX /OEX at 84.
Markets are trading slightly lower on the heels of the biggest 2 day rally in quite some time, so over bought is probably the short term theme. DJIA -67, NAZ -13 and SPX -10.
Sector strength found in oils internets and drugs while banks, financials, metals, brokers and airlines are lagging.
Key stocks - generally lower with BIDU VMW NVDA ISRG and MO higher while BG MER UA TIF NYX POT MS GS bring up the rear.
NYSE internals- 1,000 net losers;
NAZ internals -500 net losers;
NAZ -30 WINNERS;
OEX 15 WINNERS;
IBD 100-40 WINNERS;
Best Performers- BIDZ ATW STP EDU GSOL PDCO IACI BIIB LVLT NVDA MICC WMB EMC HAL GM MO T XOM GOOG SLB CVX CCU;
Worst- LEH MER COF RF HIG AXP AIG ENS SNDA VIP GLDN SNHY MBT TKC SHLD AMLN UAUA RYAAY CTSH LOGI PCAR PETM;
VIX flattish and way under the 10 day SMA;
And some breaking news, the DJIA is back under the 200 day SMA- so maybe a little shake out here and I am looking to add to longs if/when the SPX gets to the 1,450 level.
Didn't realize how good that Oil call was yesterday till I saw crude up $4 earlier this AM.
BUY LOWER SELL HIGHER
Markets closed up after a rough few weeks with the DJIA +333, NAZ +82 and SPX +41. The RUT was the biggest major market index winner as it closed +3.6%. In addition, OIL closed down about 3% and "may" be another easy trade.
Strong sectors- brokers+6%, banks+5.25%, homies+4.9%, retail+4.6% and semis +4.5%- laggards but up included oil service, utils, biotech, drugs and defense.
Key stocks-40 out of 40 in the green led by VMW ISRG MER LVS BIDU MS NYX C NVDA BG and GS.
OEX - 99 in the green with TYC red;
NAZ-1,700 net green;
NYSE -2,440 net green;
IBD 100-93 green - led by SNDA ININ PDA ISRG GFIG STP SNHY WFR ARGN BIDU;
VIX -24.04 down 8.5% and trading 8% below the 10 day SMA;
Up volume 20X Down Volume- and high volume at 1.7B shs on the NYSE;
SPX closing at 1,469 and near the 1,475 50% retracement-
DJIA -closing at 13,290 and close to the 50% retracement at 13,370. Weekly chart above on DJIA looks pretty good here although I think we can add lower.
Ten year bond at 4.03% - 2008 earnings on SPX estimated at $100 and if we call it safe at $90, the P/E on the 2008 earnings comes in near 16 or over a 6% earnings yield. Much better than a 4% yield on a 10 year Bond with no growth.
Markets continue to trade up with the performance of the major indexes found in the RUT and the and Small Cap value with the rest of the indexes falling in near the +2.6% level.
Strong sectors include financials, China, brokers, banks, airlines, emerging markets, retail and homies while utils, metals, oils and biotechs lag.
Key stocks- everyone in the green led by VMW MER ISRG C LVS BG NVDA MA MS TIF and WYNN;
NDX/OEX both with over 95 issues in the green;
NYSE/NAZ with about 4,000 net winners;
VIX -trading near 24.25 and about 7% below the 10 day SMA;
10 year Bond - 4.027% and still very expensive compared to stocks IMVHO;
Technicals- the SPX trading at 1,466 and between support at 1,450 and resistance at 1,475 (50% retracement) level. SPX 200 day at 1,484 and 200 day at 1,508, so lots of stuff can happen around these levels.
DJIA has regained the 200 day SMA at 13,245 and the 50 day SMA is still way above at 13,600.
The next easy trade may be crude as it has traded down almost 10% from its recent highs. Play the futures/USO or OIL. XLE /OIH probably not as much beta if crude ramps big.
RSI (2) numbers on major indexes:
Markets open higher as the rally from yesterday continues. Today's rally is broader as the internals are much better than yesterday despite the higher ramp on the DJIA.
Strong sectors- brokers, banks, real estate, internets, homnies, semis and retail while metals utils and drugs lag.
Key stocks- 36 out of 40 green led by VMW MER C MS WYNN GS NVDA ISRG MA and LVS with UA PG KO MSFT and GOOG lagging.
NYSE- 2,100 net green;
NAZ 1,420 net green;
NDX 80 WINNERS;
OEX 80 WINNERS;
IBD 100 -85 WINNERS;
WINNERS- MICC WYNN ISRG EBAY NVDSA SPLS JOYG QCOM MER C LEH AIG COF GS BCSI PDA GSOL SID MEE SID STP MICC;
LOSERS-BIDZ SNDA TLVT SLT PKX HDB AMGN CL EP ABT JNJ MDT PG CBS MRVL SIRI XMSR TLAB ADSK GENZ UAUA;
VIX -24.55 and down about 6.6% and trading about 6% under the 10 day SMA;
Up volume about 7x Down Volume;
Technically, the numbers I am watching, SPX 1450, prior support and probably heavy resistance now as traders look at it as a temporary stopping point. Support may reappear near 1,435 and then 1,420. NDX also has resistance at 2,060 and big support at 2,025- the start of the easy trade.
Folks owning OIH- big $10.43 dividend on the GSF/RIG deal completion so its not down $7 but up $3.5.
GS owners, next stop could be back at $229, the next FIB retracement area.
Another day and another big move in the markets as the DJIA added 215, the NAZ 40 and the SPX 21.
Sector strength in emerging markets, brokers, internets, insurance, banks and insurance while oils and metals lagged.
NYSE/NAZ internals net 1,500 in the green which paled compared to yesterdays downside numbers of 3200 net red;
IBD 100-70 GREEN;
WINNERS- HDB GRMN CNH AMZN EDU BIDU ATVI SPLS APOL LVLT GILD RF JPM EMC LEH AIG BAX MS INTC DELL EK;
LOSERS- NXY WMB HAL BHI SLB S HD COP EP COF BIDZ BCSI IRIS CMED KWK NOV TDG ARD ATLS S RYAAY PTEN CDNS CTXS DISH;
VIX lost about 9% and down to 26.3 and at the 10 day SMA;
Up Volume about 3X Down Volume; todays volume also higher than yesterday- hmmmm.
Technically, it was important that the SPX held on to the 1,420 level and the next area worth watching is 1,440/1,450. I suspect lots of folks will sell the 1,450 area as it was prior support.
On the NDX, we are again above the 50% retracement level of 2,025 with the next target near 2,060.
DJIA next level to watch near 13,000 and then 13,200 level.
Support back at yesterday's lows on all the major indexes and if we break those levels, I suspect then 1,370 SPX and 12,500 on the DJIA is next stop. Hopefully we have seen the short term bottom.
Markets trade higher this afternoon after a little pullback at the SPX 1,420 Pivot Point area. The DJIA +210, NAZ +35 and SPX +17.
Sector strength- China, emerging markets, internets, brokers, insurance, banks, biotechs and semis; losers- oils and metals.
NYSE internals- 1,000 net winners;
NAZ internals- 510 net winners;
NDX -90 WINNERS;
OEX -85 WINNERS;
IBD 100-65 WINNERS;
WINNERS- HDB CNH PFWD CHL GRMN EDU ATVI SPLS SNDK APOL EBAY RF LEH EMC JPM MS AIG AXP DELL;
The DJIA has regained almost all the losses of yesterday while the SPX is way behind and just 18 points to the green after losing 34 points yesterday. The culprit, probably energy as it lags with the big sell off in crude.
Other issues, in light of the big ramp- NYSE/NAZ internals- 1,500 net green while yesterday closed with about 3,200 net red. Bottom line, yesterdays sell off far worse than today's recovery despite the almost unchanged DJIA.
Markets have sold off again as usual after a gap open higher. SPX 1,420, today's Pivot Point was the big point of sale. My guess, some buyers from yesterday wanted a quick exit to lock in some profits and now the next round begins.
Strong sectors include emerging markets, retail, insurance, banks, internets, airlines and drugs- lagging are oils, metals and real estate.
Key stocks - 75% green led by DECK VMW UA MO CELG MER AMZN MS NVDA and GRMN; lagging are C XOM GOOG MGM WYNN AAPL ICE and BG;
Market internals- flattish on NYSE/NAZ after opening with about 1,000 net green on the NYSE;
NDX- 80+ WINNERS;
OEX -75 WINNERS;
IBD 100-40 WINNERS- note energy and metals are big components in the IBD 100 and they are the worst performers of the day;
IBD 20- also loaded with energy and lagging - in the red are FSLR WFT OXY SLB XTO GOOG CVS MOS and AAPL;
WINNERS- SPLS ATVI GILD MICC APOL INTU RF EMC AIG TFT ABT MO TYC EDU HDB ESRX FCSX ANSS ABAX HDB CNH;
Oil way down and the OIH at the 50% retracement number- 10 year Bond at 3.94% - don't expect oil stocks to suffer the same fate as tech stocks in Y2k. They have assets and sell at reasonable P/E's.
GS is a noticeable non participator in the rally and I would keep a sharp eye on its; in addition SPX 1,420- if we can bust through we may have some upside to 1,440 /1,450. Also, watch yesterdays lows near 1,405, a move below there shows little support back to 1,370, the low from August 16.
Checking the numbers, VIX/VXO in over bought territory but hardly stretched the way they were at the August lows when the VIX traded over 30 and about 20% above its 10 day SMA. Yesterday's close was under 29 and about 8% over the 10 day SMA. The Thanksgiving holiday probably kept a little lid on the VIX so not sure the difference is that significant.
The 50 day SMA on the SPX is a little different story. Back at the mid August lows, the SPX was about 7% below its 50 day and yesterday- right back at the 7% number so maybe deja vu all over again. Also, note on the chart, MACD Histogram and 14 day RSI making higher lows while the SPX index is making lower lows of late. Just another positive divergence and maybe a preview of something good to come.
One wierd one is the NH and NL list on the NYSE . On August 16, when the SPX traded down to 1,370, the New Low list on the NYSE was up at 1,132 while yesterday it was only at 308. We also had higher NL numbers last Monday and Tuesday at 546 and 613 respectively, so maybe a little positive divergence as the SPX made a lower low but the NL list made fewer NL's.
Another awful day in the markets as the financials led the markets lower and the 10 year bond moved up to yield under 3.85%. 50 bps cut anyone?
Whenever the rally occurs- if one does - it will be a mother of all rallies;
DJIA closes down 240, NAZ -56 and SPX -33.
Strongest sectors- utils, biotech, trannies and drugs; weakest- real estate, reits, banks, brokers, homies and emerging markets.
Market internals- pretty awful all day with NYSE/NAZ - 3,200 net losers;
OEX/NDX internals about 20 winners of the 200 issues;
IBD 100- 35 WINNERS;
Interesting stats for the year:
XBD -down about 19% for 2007;
BKX - down about 25% for 2007;
RUT -down about 6% for 2007;
RLX- down about 18% for 2007;
Levels to watch on the SPX- its gone thru the recent lows and is now red 1% for the year.
DJIA- 12,800 was support and looks 12,500 is the next level to watch on the downside while 13,100 is resistance.
NDX- recent lows of 1,980 looks like a support target while 2,060 appears to be resistance.
Volume was light at about 1.4B while downside trumped upside volume;
RSI (2) on major indexes:
Remember the buy signals at the bottom of the range (near 10) is only applicable in uptrending markets (200 day SMA under the market).
Oh and CFC down to about $8.5, a long way from the BAC conversion price near $20. Not so shrewd after all. And Where has Ned "the bull" Riley been during this correction?
Markets continue to trade lower as the DJIA is -34, NAZ -12 and SPX -8.
Interesting to watch the levels as the NDX hangs in at the 2,025 level and at the days pivot. SPX also sees action at 1,433, the pivot point while the DJIA continues to trade a hair above the pivot at 12,920.
Sectors continue to show the usual with oils, utils, trannies, biotech and internets leading while real estate, banks, brokers, retail and homies lag.
Key stocks - a little more than half lower with GRMN BIDU MA MTW AAPL GB RIMM the winners while VMW C MER TIF MS WYNN BAC the biggest losers.
Internals have flipped to red as NAZ/NYSE show over 1,200 net red;
NDX- 30 WINNERS;
OEX -35 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 60 WINNERS;
Remember, in the IBD 100- a large amount of winning tech/energy/metals/emerging markets.
Down volume about double Up volume;
10 year Bond at 3.97% and dropping;
Vix up 3.6% to 26.55 and a bit above the 10 day SMA;
WINNERS-GRMN BIDU SNDA ARD CNH BOOM GIGM BUCY MICC DLB JOYG VRSN AAPL JAVA NIHD RIMM ISRG EXPE AES CI BA AA EXC MDT CCU GOOG;
Interesting to note 52 week lows a bit better than usual with about 100 on both the NYSE and NAZ.
Notables on the NH list:
DE GSF RIG;
On the NL list:
AMD ACF CTX ELX F HOV LOW JOE VNO;
Had to laugh this morning as CNBC ran the headline "$100 oil will lead to demand decrease." Of course they ran the same headline at $50 oil.
Still looking for the rally I mentioned last week (easy trade) and will probably buy some YM here also as they couldn't get em down so maybe the take em up.
Amazing, I leave for a few days and come back and look at the early markets and yowza tech/oils/metals all higher while banks/brokers/real estate and retail lower. Who would have thought.
Anyhow, the DJIA is +25, NAZ+11 and SPX +2.
Strongest sectors- China, oils, trannies, emerging markets, defense, utils, metals and internets while banks, real estate, brokers and homies lag.
Key stocks - 25 out of 40 higher led by GRMN BIDU POT MTW AAPL M RIMM ISRG-laggards- VMW C MS MER LVS UA MCD GE WYNN BAC MGM GS;
Internals- NYSE +500/NAZ +300;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
OEX -60 GREEN;
IBD 100-85 GREEN;
WINNERS- GRMN MICC AKAM FLEX JOYG BA CI ROK AES GOOG NXY AA BNI BIDZ FSTR SNDA BOOM GIGM TKC CTRP PCLN FCSX;
LOSERS- SDA CCH PDA TLVT HOLX ANSS MCRS MR WYNN ARGN COF WB LTD RF HD EMC TGT LEH C BBBY DISH SYMC FAST SBUX BRCM UAUA;
VIX -up a hair at 26.35 and under the 10 day SMA;
Congrats to the folks owning the 10 year bond as it now sinks under the 4.00% level;'
Up volume a bit higher than Down volume but lets call it even;
Levels to watch on the SPX- 1,450 as major resistance with support near the 1,425 level;
NDX- 2,025- the 50% retracement level still major support while resistance near 2,065, recent highs.
Most RSI (2) levels on major indexes near 70;
Futures were way up last night but have since pulled way back on the heels of more bad news out of financials.
Retail sales appear to be pretty good after a few days of data but hardly enough to give the all clear signal. My guess is this Holiday sales period will be like most others - decent- nothing terrible/nothing outstanding. The last thing folks give up is buying gifts for others regardless of how deep into credit one needs to go.
Barrons was bullish on HOG and a few deal stocks including CCU HET and BCE.
Finished Charlie Gasparino's King of the Club and must say it was a terrific read. All the memories of Grasso/Spitzer/Phelan/Donaldson/Langone/ and others. Charlie did a great job with background and the players and I not usually a big Gasparino fan but this was certainly a fine research/writing job. And if you don't think the specialist were ripping off the public............