8.10.2007

BACK TO WACKY WACKY


Markets continue to trade all over the board and the DJIA after being down 200 flipped to green and now trades down 80. What you don't hear is that the small cap RUT still higher on the day and definitely out performing over the last week. Small cap value +1.1% on the day. Remember, the small cap index was the first one to head lower weeks ago and may be leading to the upside.


Strong sectors include metals, defense, semis, software, oils, retail and utilities while gaming, brokers, homies, real estate, biotech and drugs lag.


Winners- INTU XRAY PETM IACI CHKP TLAB CSC GD NSC NSM HIG HPQ XRX CPB IBM CHE GTI UEIC SPSS ESI CYNO WNR OPY.


Losers- FTK GSOL TBSI NVDA HDNG VDSI ATN STP DECK GMCR NILE FAST EXPD WFMI LAMR JNPR WYNN AMLN.


Market internals red 1,000 on the NYSE and red 700 on the NAZ.


The NDX and the OEX both with 35 up and 65 down.


VIX up about 8% at 28.4 after trading at about 30 earlier in the day.


Up volume 570 Down volume 983.


Other stuff:


Banks hanging in mixed with BAC C MTB WB WFC all green;


Brokers lower but way off their lows;


Big Bio all red;


Defense has flipped to green with ITA +1%;


Gaming- LVS WYNN- giving some back;


Healthcare/Drugs- all red;


Metals - green led by FCX GLD SLV SSRI GG;


Oils flat - CAM CNQ CVX FTO HOC HP SU TSO VLO XOM XTO green; APA COP DVN HAL NFX PXD RIG SLB red;


Retail- mixed with COH SHLD TIF green and CROX DECK GES KSS UA WFMI all red;


Tech- AMZN HPQ IBM KLAC SNDK TXN green- AAPL AKAM CTSH GOOG MSFT NVDA RIMM all red;

WEAKNESS


Markets open lower yet again as fear and forced liquidations appear to be the order of the early trade.


Strong sectors include metals and semis while gaming, brokers, homies, tech, real estate, oil service and mid caps lag.


Winners- INTU PCAR FLEX XLNX TLAB LLTC SNDK XRAY ESRX NTAP CPB CBS WFC TXN NSM AIG RF SO BAC JNJ IBM ORCL UTX HIG.


Losers- AA SLE WY HAL ATI MS DOW EXC LEH CCU COP AXP NVDA VRTX AAPL RIMM EXPD SUNW JNPR SEPR JOYG WYNN ATVI MICC WFMI.


VIX up 9% and at 4 year highs.


Market internals, not surprisingly, weak with 1,900 net losers on the NYSE and 1,350 net losers on the NAZ.


The NDX shows 3 down to every 1 up while the OEX is far worse with 15 up and 85 down.


Glimmers of hope- SMH is green, WFC WB BAC CME- The QQQQ seems to be holding the recent low at 47.


8.09.2007

NEW RULES



Hard to believe but after Mark Haines gave us all the reasons why the markets would rally from down 100 earlier this AM - it didn't. The DJIA closed down 380 (2.75%), the NAZ down 2.2% and the RUT down 1.4%. Not sure why the gurus at CNBC do not mention how the RUT is out performing of late but I guess they have their reasons.





Best of the sectors were real estate, semis, homies, airlines, biotech and gaming while brokers, oils, retail, banks, defense and large cap value were the worst.





Winners - GM SO LVLT MCHP EXPE SNDK SEPR LAMR NVDA ALTR SBUX B ALY FLIR PVG LAYN GES.

Losers- HDNG SNHY CF HURC TBSI DECK GTI SPEC LEH HIG RF CSC GS F ALL MS C.

The DJIA had 3 winners while the OEX had 4 out of 100 in the green; the NDX far better with 13 out of 100 in the green.



The NAZ had about 2 down for every winner while the NYSE was far worse at about 3.5 down for every up.




VIX up about 20% on the day and the new trading rule is to buy when they are up 20% (today) and sell when they are down 20% (yesterday).



Other stuff:

Ags- POT down 6%;

Banks- AIB C DFS MTB JPM the worst of the bunch;

Brokers - all ugly;

Gaming- all down with exception of LVS which flipped the green side switch earlier in the session after being down a couple of points;

Metals- all ugly;

Retail- COH CROX DECK HD M PVH SHLD TIF TGT WMT all down very big;

Big caps- GE down 3.75%- AXP -3.7% PG unchanged- CVX down 4%- WMT down 4%;

Up to down Volume- 442m up 2.44 B down on almost 3B shs traded- most i have seen;

The QQQQ oscillating between its 20 and 50 day SMA but looks to be breaking through to the downside with support probably at the old low at/near 47.

NOON SWOON


According to our friends at CNBC, the markets are resilient and doing better than expected in light of the news out of Europe early this morning. Not sure why down 225 is resilient but if CNBC says it - must be true.


The RUT/NAZ/NDX are still the out performers as they continue to lose less than the big cap safety stocks.


Strongest sectors include real estate, semis, homies, biotech, airlines and gaming while brokers, financials, retail, metals, banks and value lag.


Winners MCHP LVLT CHRW ALTR AKAM FAST EXPE ADBE LAMR SNDK AVP PG MCD BHI EK GM DD KO CSCO PVG FLIR B ARD SYNA.


Losers- GS RF HD MS S HIG GD CBS ROK COF TYC AES C APOL RYAAY CTXS INTU LRCX LINTA S MICC UAUA BEAS DELL DISCA.


Market internals worsening as I type as the NYSE is about 3/1 red while the NAZ is a bit better than 2/1 red.


The NDX with 28 up and 72 down while the OEX is getting very ugly at 9 down to each gainer.


Volatility indexes up 20% with the VIX at the 26 level and up over 20% on the day and a hair below its 52 week high.


Other stuff:


Banks/Brokerages - all red with AIB C DFS MTB BSC LEH MS GS TROW the worst of the bunch;


Biotech and drugs- not much safety there as all are red cept for LLY;


Consumers have some green such as KO MCD PG SBUX;


Retail- lots of ugly action there with CROX DECK HD PVH SHLD TGT all bad;


Tech still mixed with AKAM CSCO CTSH IBM KLAC NVDA SNDK YHOO green and AAPL AMZN HPQ INFY INTC TXN all ugly;


Trannies- get your Buffet railroads as they are all red with CNI and CP down 2% plus;


Down volume about 4x down volume;


The 2 day RSI's on most major indexes - in the 30's so not oversold yet as these markets trade all over the board.

OPENING LOOK


Markets open weaker on the heels of the BNP Paribas news as the sub prime slime rears its head yet again.


Weaker is all relative and everyone should focus on the NAZ/NDX and the real estate stocks as they are probably providing a good hint of what is to come. The NDX is about to hit the flat line and the real estate stocks IYR are trading up to flat.


Strong sectors include biotech, airlines, semis, and real estate while brokers, metals, banks, defense and retail lag.


Winners- LVLT EXPE WFMI SNDK EXPD NVDA MCHP SBUX SEPR CSCO BHI AVP EK B PVG FLIR ARD ICE FTK SIMO SNDA.


Losers- GSOL SNHY HDNG TBSI GTI CF ESI PCR HD WY MER MS C BDK HAL TYC LEH BUD HIG AES LEH.


Market internals are 720 green 2340 red on the NYSE and 1190 green 1620 red on the NAZ.


The OEX is very weak with only 15 winners while the NDX isn't bad at 40 up and 60 down.


Volatility indexes up about 10% and way off their worst levels of the morning.


I expect this downdraft to be bought as it seems folks are looking forward to a rate cut from Big Ben. Lots of folks who put out shorts yesterday near the close are probably looking to cover and this AM is quite a nice gift to them.


8.08.2007

WACKY WACKY


Markets closed the day up 153 on the DJIA +1.1% after being up about 200, NAZ +51 or 2% while the recently maligned RUT was the big winner on the day up almost 3%.


Markets also dipped to flat in the final 90 minutes as rumors were flying that GS was going to have something ugly to say after the close. GS denied and markets turned around to close well.


Strong sectors included homies, real estate, reits, metals, airlines, brokers and small caps while defense and utilities lagged.


Winners- BRCM DISCA CSCO UAUA EXPED FAST WFMI F LEH SLB ATI AES AXP EK MER DO HD PCLN TBSI WNR ARD FLIR GMCR.


Losers- AAPL AMZN WRNC GTI SNDA SNHY ALY CNYO LAMR INTU APOL LINTA CHKP S GENZ RTN TYC S CBS HON TXN.


Market internals remained strong despite the dip and closed with about 2379 up and 959 down on the NYSE and 2133 up and 972 down on the NAZ.


The NDX closed with about 80 up and 20 down while the OEX wasn't quite as good with 70/30 ups to downs.


Volatility indexes all over the board and closed near the unchanged level but still oversold and under the 10 day SMA.


Other stuff:


Banks and brokers all higher;


Biotech all higher;


Gaming turned mixed mid day as the profit takers did their thing;


Metals up big as HUI was plus 3.5% - SSRI PAAS GG FCX BHP all good;


Oils about all higher cept for HAL and HP- leaders- CNQ EAC SLB SU VLO XTO;


Real estate- best day in years as RWX CLI CTO DEL FCE.A JOE SLG TRC all closed nicely green;


Tech was green except for AAPL AMZN IBM and TXN;


Very heavy volume with 2B up and 660 down on the NYSE;


Interesting how the SPX turned down right at the 20 day SMA while never quite making it to the 50 day SMA. More selling into the 1,500 /1,510 level would not be surprising as traders probably fade the down trending 50 day SMA.


Some great stuff from CNBC today as they declare the great move in real estate/homies is either a short squeeze or a bottom. Thank you.




MIDDAY CHECK


Markets continue to trade higher although off their best levels of the day. The RUT continues to outperform, higher by 2.7% compared to +.88% on the SPX and +.54% on the DJIA; so when you hear all day about the big caps and the NAZ/NDX leading the way you will know the actual truth.


Strong sectors include gaming, brokers, homies, metals, real estate and small caps while software, drugs and defense lag.


Winners- BRCM JOYG CSCO FAST LVLT AKAM LEH MER ATI AXP EK PCLN ACH PCR TBSI ARD WNR STP FLIR AVT.


Losers- GTI CYNO SPSS WCG KCI SNHY RTN CBS CMCSA S T TYC SLE LAMR PETM IACI LINTA APOL SYMC GENZ CHKP.


Market internals - very bullish with 2,600 net gainers on the NYSE/NAZ while the NDX/OEX shows about 3/1 up downs.


Volatility indexes up about 7% and trading at sell signal areas and more than 10% below the 10 day SMA.


Tells look to be leaning to another rally this afternoon as all the right sectors are leading and the market internals look ubber bullish.
Keep in mind that we are at the 50% Fib retracement on the SPX/RUT- so selling may come in shortly.

SMALL STUFF


Markets opened higher on the heels of some good news form Johnny Chambers at CSCO and the hope that sub prime slime is falling on to the back pages. The small caps have finally edged back into the green on the year as they are leading this morning up 2.4% while the SPX is higher by .7%.


Strongest sectors include gaming, brokers, metals, small caps, homies, real estate, airlines and semis- lagging are defense, drugs, oil service and software.


Winners- LEH CSCO BNI MER ATI AES EK MS COF GM GS BRCM WFMI EXPD NVDA GRMN WYNN AMLN RYAAY INFY PCLN PCR GMCR AVT TBSI.


Losers- WCG ALY SPSS CYNO SPEC KCI AMZN LAMR LINTA CHKP SYMC QCOM RTN TYC CBS BAX TXN BUD GD HAL and HON.


Market internals about as good as they get on the green side with about 1,600 net winners on the NYSE and 1,360 net winners on the NAZ.


The OEX with 70 up and 30 down while the NDX is 85 up and 15 down- ultra bullish.


Volatility indexes down another 5% and trading about 10% under the 10 day SMA. Yeah the old sell signal.


The 2 day RSI on the major indexes back to the low 80's level and nearing sell signals.


Up volume to down volume about 5/1 so all very bullish signs as the day traders no doubt will be buying all the dips.


8.07.2007

THE CLOSE


Don't like the prices on the screen, give it a minute or 2 they will change - significantly.


Markets closed higher with the RUT/MID and large cap value being the best performers of the day.


Strongest sectors included gaming, homies, brokers, oil service and utilities while semis, software, airlines, metals and tech lagged.


Winners included LEH LTD AEP BHI SO GM ABT AA XOM GS WYNN VRTX EXPD NTAP ROST XMSR GRMN JOYG EBAY ADSK GMCR NILE MR CMG TLVT GES BTJ ARD TBSI.


Losers included PETM TLAB BEAS QCOM DISH CDNS INTU ATVI GENZ BRCM ORCL SYMC LVLT XRX AVP GD AES ORCL EMC HD BA CPB BAX RTN CYNO HURN UEIC TRAK OPY CHE KCI.


Market internals closed bullish with 475 net winners on the NYSE and 420 net winners on the NAZ.


The NDX/OEX both closed with better internals at 2/1 ups to downs.


Volatility indexes down about 6% and low and behold the VIX/VXO combo are now oversold and trading about 5% below their respective 10 day SMA's. Also, most of the major indexes now trading with 2 day RSI levels at/near the 70 level.


My guess, as long as brokers, banks and oils continue to trade up the markets will probably continue to move higher.

PRE BIG BEN


Markets have been trading near the flat line for a few hours with the RUT/MIDS and Large cap Value out performing.


Strong sectors include gaming, brokers, homies, oil service, internets and banks while software, semis, tech, metals and retail lag.


Winners- WYNN VRTX EXPD XMSR PTEN SIRI ADSK JOYG EBAY ROST LEH BHI ABT AIG USB AA MER GS GM MS NILE GMCR MR TLVT GSOL STP CMG DRYS GME ATN.


Losers- HURN UEIC CYNO PCR LAYN CHE OPY SPEC AXE KCI TRAK AES AVP EMC ORCL ATI GD HD DELL BUD AMGN RTN BEAS TLAB QCOM LVLT BRCM GENZ INTU ORCL SYMC.


Market internals flat on the NYSE/NAZ.


The OEX about even between winners and loser while the NDX is about 3 /2 losers to winners.


Other stuff:


Big Banks all green in front of Ben;


Big Brokers all green in front of Ben- CME in the red;


Gaming- green with rumors that Captain Kirk is back in the hunt for MGM;


Media continues to act crummy with DIS higher and the rest lower;


Oils generally green despite lower crude- Winners- CAM CVX DO EAC HAL HP RIG XOM XTO- losers- FTO PXD PWE TSO;


Retail primarily green with CROX COH DECK GES UA acting best;


Tech lagging with AMAT BRCM IBM MSFT TXN leading lower;


Up volume moving ahead of down volume 600/433 and Volatility indexes mixed with VIX down 2% and VXO up 5%.


GS and OIH both heading higher and FWIW the 50% retracement line is about $205 on GS and $176 on OIH. The 50% retracement on the SPX is 1,492, so rally probably has more to go although I bet with lots of volatility.


The 50 day SMA is only about 90 points above on the DJIA; 40 above on the SPX and only 6 above on the NDX.


Going out on a limb with a call for volatile trading this afternoon as Big Ben does his thing which will probably be very little.





MORNING MARKETS


Markets are trading lower on the heels of more mortgage problems (LUM) and some apprehension in front of Big Ben. Good news is the action in the financials as brokers/banks are generally higher in spite of the lower major indexes.


Strongest sectors include gaming, brokers, banks, trannies, internets and oil service while semis, software, metals, airlines and tech are lagging.


Winning stocks- WYNN PTEN EBAY JOYG RYAAY LEH BHI GM ABT GOOG AIG BNI WB GS

TLVT GMCR MR DRYS NILE DSX MFRI STP.


Losers- HURN CMED SPEC MT CHE LAYN GTI KCI BHP XRX AVP EMC AES ATI TYC ORCL MRVL ATVI AMAT GENZ INTU JNPR UAUA.


Market internals - net 615 red on the NYSE and flat on the NAZ.


NDX about 2 down to every up and OEX about the same or a hair worse.


Volatility indexes about flat.


Other stuff:


Ag's generally green led by AG DE MON MTW;

Banks flattish;

Brokers good led by LEH NMX NYX GS CME;

Biotech generally red with the exception of DNA;

Consumers generally red with KMB MCD PEP barely green;

Defense - red with TXT getting hit;

Gaming- MGM LVS WYNN all higher on the WYNN numbers from last nite;

Real estate- surprisingly higher;

Retail mixed with COH COST CROX DECK GES UA higher while HD M SHLD TIF TGT all lower;

Tech- red led lower by SMH AKAM AMAT AMZN BRCM IBM KLAC MSFT SNDK TXN higher are AAPL EBAY GOOG NVDA RIMM and YHOO;

Up to Down volume about 40/60 while the TRIN is a hair under 1;

8.06.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets close higher on the heels of some good news out of the financials sector (buybacks). The DJIA closed up 286, the NAZ +36 and the SPX +34 but don't look at those market internals, the NYSE had about 225 more winners than losers and the NAZ with 170 more LOSERS than winners. Friday, there were about 4,000 more losers than winners on both exchanges. Let the excitement CNBC excitement begin.

Strong sectors included brokers, gaming, banks, utilities, large cap value, real estate, biotechs and drugs while airlines, metals and oils lagged.

Winners inlcuded INTU VRTX JNPR WYNN FAST ERTS PAYX WFMI MER USB WFC C MS RF ALL GMCR DECK WRNC HURC HURN VSEA GES and TRAK.
Losers- OPY PCR SPEC BTJ DRC WMB AES AA EMC IP NSC TWX SLB BMET TLAB UAUA MNST SEPR LVLT IACI and BEAS.

DJIA with all winners except for AA;

The OEX with 80 up and 20 down while the NDX almost as good with 75 up and 25 down;

Volume was heavy with about 1.7B up and .7 B down;

Vix down 9% and VXO down 18.5%;

The SPX regained the 200 day SMA and is only about 47 points below the 50 day SMA;
The DJIA bumping up against the 50 day - only about 90 points below;

And you haven't seen the links via Adam, check it out as Cramer goes from meaningless to Armegeddon. If we are real lucky, maybe he will update us on his DJIA forecast for the year and his favorite growth stocks NYX- hard to have picked something much worse.

Not expecting much from the markets as the Fed probably gets sold tomorrow - folks probably going to be disappointed regardless of what they say.




AFTERNOON TRADE


Markets trade higher led by BIG CAP TECH and big caps in generals.


Strong sectors include banks, utilities, drugs, biotechs, semis and large cap value while airlines, metals, oils, homies and silvers lag.


Winners include WYNN LVS MER WMT MS C VRTX INTU ERTS PAYX APOL FAST WFC USB AIG SO RF GS GMCR WRNC CHE DECK TRAK.


Losers include OPY PCR CMED SPEC DRC ACH BTJ WMB AES AA EMC EP IP SLB HAL TLAB MNST SEPR NIHD SYMC GRMN.


Market internals are still red on the NYSE and NAZ with a net 1,200 more losers than winners.


The NDX/OEX with about 2 up to every one down while the IBD 100 of last week is ugly at 3 down to every one winner.


Volatility indexes generally lower with VXO down more than VIX;


Other stuff:


Financials generally green led by AIB C JPM MTB USB WFC BEN MER MS TROW;


Biotech all green with the exception of BIIB;


Drugs greeen led by ABT LLY MRK PFE SNY;


Metals all red led lower by FCX GSS;


Oils all red led by CNX DO FTO HOC PXD RIG SU XTO;


Retail mixed with COST DECK KSS PVH WFMI WMT green and CROX TIF UA all red;


Tech generally green led by AAPL AMZN GOOG IBM KLAC;


Down volume still ahead of up volume despite the market averages;



ANYWHERE AND EVERYWHERE



Markets trade all over the board and changing as I type so not much point in identifying the current pricing on the major indexes. However, the small /mids are acting far worse than the big caps as the RUT is already down 1.5%.





Strongest sectors are drugs, software, biotech, defense, semis and tech while homies, airlines, oil service, metals and integrated oils lag.





Winning stocks include LVS WYNN WMS AIG IBM JNJ PG WMT AIB MTB WFC AMZN MSFT GOOG TXN AMGN CELG COST CVS.





Losers include AXP CVX MGM DNA BAC BX C JPM MA BSC GS LEH LM MS ICE NDAQ NYX NMX TIF CROX.


Market internals are ugly as usual with 1,500 net losers on the NYSE and 1,400 net losers on the NAZ.

Volatility indexes up 5 to 8% as fear continues to increase as the markets go lower.

Honestly, no clue how this market will trade for the rest of the day or week as the recent winners such energy and metals continue to get crushed along with the financials. The trend has obviously turned down we are however way oversold- so take that.

8.05.2007

MRS SHARK WITH BIGGER BASS


SHARK WITH BASS

Fishing was much more enjoyable than the markets over the last week !!!