6.20.2008
Markets continue lower and near the worst levels of the day with the DJIA down 190, NAZ -60 and SPX -22.
Only sector in the green - metals with gaming, retail, financials, internets and homies trailing.
NYSE- 2060 net losers;
NAZ- 1500 net losers;
NDX- 3 GREEN;
OEX- 4 GREEN;
IBD- 20 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 5.5% at 22.8;
GOLD- $903;
CRUDE- $135;
Could be a whippy afternoon as quad witch takes shape- markets also way over bought with RSI (2) levels on the major indexes at/near the 10 level- My QID long looking pretty pretty good and will probably take off before the afternoon expires.
A long trade probably early next weeek with DIG OIH XLE all looking like they may be good from the long side after the OPEC weekend meeting.
THE CRUSH
Markets are lower on the heels of more rumors in the financial patch and rumors about Israel and Iran.
The DJIA -185, NAZ -45 and SPX -20.
Strong sectors include metals, oil service and oils while banks, financials, gaming and brokers are all crushed.
NYSE -1800 net losers;
NAZ- 1300 net losers;
NDX 3 WINNERS;
OEX- 10 WINNERS;
IBD- 40 WINNERS;
VIX- up 6% at /near 23 and far from over bought;
TRIN- 1.62 with down volume almost 10x up volume;
GOLD $910;
CRUDE- $137;
Lots of chatter about the 1327 61.8 FIB level being shattered this morning - but the day is not over- and I mentioned a few days ago that I would like to buy at those levels- probably not today but maybe ealry next week as the sellers capitulate.
Note also GS down $2 after a nice move higher during the week- maybe an early sign of stabilization. Also looking to exit my QID put on near the close yesterday.
6.19.2008
THE WRAP
Markets closed higher led by the NAZ/NDX with the SPX/DJIA lagging far behind.
Strong sectors were trannies, reits, retail, semis and shipping while oils, ags, metals and large value lagged.
NYSE- FLAT internals;
NAZ- 400 net winners;
NDX- 80 GREEN;
OEX- 65 GREEN;
IBD- 40 GREEN;
VIX- down 3% at 21.5;
TRIN- .8 with up volume a bit more than down on 1.2 B shares traded;
GOLD -$900;
CRUDE $132.5;
Didn't buy any DIG or OIH as the trend was too strong on the downside - and a big pow wow in Saudi Arabia this weekend which could be bearish so will hold off for now-
Did buy some QID as I doubt the markets rips higher from here- as the 1350 area looks like resistance on the SPX and 1325 support-
GS was up another $4 today and it is heading into resistance near the $189 level- so a heads up to the longs - and if we get there it could also be a temporary top in the major indexes.
MIDDAY CHECK
the NDX/NAZ are trading higher while the other major indexes are trading around the flat line thanks to the fine action in the financials thanks to great comments out of C. Well a tad tongue in cheek there but the banks seem to put in a new bottom just about every day.
Strong sectors include trannies, semis, shipping, drugs and defense while banks, brokers, oils, gaming and ags lag.
NYSE - 250 net losers;
NAZ - 170 net winners;
NDX- 75 GREEN;
OEX- 60 GREEN;
IBD- 40 GREEN;
VIX- under 22 and lower by 2.5%;
Down volume still better than up;
TRIN- 1.00;
Still expecting 1325 on the SPX but dipping in for some oils here DIG OIH XLE- as buying the dips there has been frutiful on just about every dip- oh and shorting XLF or long SKF on pullbacks - that seems to work every time also.
THE OPEN
Markets are lower this morning on the heels of crumbling oil prices as the Chinese decide to raise the price of oil to their population. And if the markets have nothing on this news -hmmmm.
The DJIA -24, NAZ -7 and SPX -3.
Leaders- metals, trannies, steel, shipping and retail while banks, gaming, brokers, internets and homies lag.
NYSE- 350 net losers;
NAZ- 390 net losers;
NDX-30 GREEN;
OEX- 35 GREEN;
IBD- 33 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 1% at near 22.5;
down volume about 2X up;
TRIN- 1.31
Still waiting for 1325 on the SPX for a long shot as markets continue to go down on earnings news and just about any other news-so holding out for now
6.18.2008
THE CLOSE
Markets closed near the lows with the DJIA -125, NAZ -28 and the SPX -12.5.
Strong sectors gold, metals, brokers, oil service, steel and trannies while gaming, banks, retail and semis were the worst.
NYSE- 1400 net losers;
NAZ- 1200 net losers;
NDX- 10 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
IBD- 45 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 5% and at/near the SMA 10;
TRIN-1.11 with down volume 3X up;
GOLD- $897;
CRUDE- $136+;
Hard for the markets to make headway when the internals are as punk as they were today- so a strategy of shorting the pull ups as suggested worked pretty well with several opportunities through the day.
Still looking for a next stop near 1325 on the SPX but perhaps a little bounce tomorrow before ta move down possibly early next week.
And if you are looking for a ruler stock check XTO- it has been mentioned many times on this blog for years - but more highs today.
NOON BOUNCE
Markets have bounced a bit into the noon hour after swooning to the 1335 level on the SPX. As I type the DJIA -80, NAZ - 18 and the SPX -8 to 1342.
Strongest sectors include drugs, trannies, utils and steel with the XBD broker dealer index rallying to the flat line- laggards include banks, gaming, semis, retail and tech.
NYSE- 1360 net losers;
NAZ- 1050 net losers;
NDX -15 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
IBD- 35 GREEN;
VIX -higher by 3.5% at 21.9;
TRIN- 1.39 with down volume almost 4x down;
GOLD $889;
CRUDE $133;
Doubt we see much of a ramp from here as the internals are pretty horrid so if you want to daytrade, my guess - short the rallies and wait for lower prices to get long.
THE OPEN
Here we go again- markets are lower led down by the financials with the BKX down 3.7%, XLF down 2.3% and LEH down over 3% - hard for the markets to go higher without the banks and the NAZ/NDX also getting whacked - each are down almost 1%.
Strongest sectors include drugs, oil service and metals while homies, semis, telecom and retail are getting whacked in addition to the aforementioned financials.
Market internals ugly with over 1400 net losers on the NYSE and about 1,000 net red on the NAZ-
OEX - 20 GREEN;
NDX-4 GREEN;
IBD- 40 GREEN;
The big winners on the DJIA - PFE MRK WMT while GM BAC AXP are the big losers and check the GM price.
VIX- higher by 4% at about 22;
TRIN- 1.36 with down volume about 4x the ups;
GOLD- $889;
CRUDE- $134;
RBS with some of the blame for the morning sell off as they said this;
And BESPOKE with their look a the stretch;
So where could we find a short term bottom- maybe the 1325 area which is the 38% FIB retracement level for the SPX- 1440 high on May 19 and 1257 low on March 17.
6.17.2008
CLOSING FACTS
An ugly afternoon for the major market indexes as the financials continue to stink up the markets - note the GS note that US banks may need an additional $65 Billion in capital- so the BKX/XLF both down 3% + as I type.
The DJIA -105, NAZ -15 and SPX -9;
And where are all those TV gurus who pleaded with us to buy big caps for the last eight years- note the MID up on the year while the SPX/DJIA both down close to 8%.
Strong sectors today in the momo areas- oils, shipping, ags, steel and metals while banks, brokers, reits, real estate, homies and insurance brought up the rear.
NYSE- 620 net losers;
NAZ- 850 net losers;
NDX-20 GREEN;
OEX-25 GREEN;
IBD-70 GREEN;
VIX- up 1% with the major indexes way down;
TRIN- 1.13 - almost 2X downs to ups with very light volume;
CRUDE $134;
GOLD- $887;
EURO- 1.55;
RSI (2) levels pretty telling:
SPX 37
DJIA 27
NAZ 57
NDX 61
RUT 61
MID 80
XLE 89
XLF 27
MOO 91
OIH 89
So as long as the financials continue to act poorly a nice strategy would be to short the pull ups in DJIA/SPX or even go long QQQQ/IWM /MDY and short SPX/DIA.
MIDDAY LOOK
Markets have gone south led by the banks and the financials as each and every big bank/broker has flipped to red. The SPX -5, DJIA -75 and NAZ -8.5.
Strongest sectors include shipping, solar, steel, ags, oils and metals while the aforementioned financials act the worst followed by real estate, gaming and reits.
NYSE 362 net losers;
NAZ- 625 net losers;
NDX- 20 GREEN;
OEX-25 GREEN;
IBD-70 GREEN;
VIX-down 1.5% despite the lower markets;
TRIN- 1.09 with down volume about 150% of up volume;
GOLD- $888;
CRUDE- $134;
EURO- 1.552;
10 YEAR NOTE- 4.207;
Markets getting sold again with financials being the first sale on the list- the GS numbers were good but the stock ran up the last few days into the number so no surprise it is lower.
Also - over head resistance at SPX 1370/1385 so there you go.
THE OPEN
Markets open slightly higher with the DJIA +20, NAZ +1 and SPX -3.5.
Strongest sectors include shipping, solar, steel, ags, emerging markets and oils while gaming, reits, homies and banks lag.
NYSE- 250 net winners;
NAZ- 340 net losers;
NDX -35 GREEN;
OEX-65 GREEN;
IBD- 75 GREEN;
VIX- 20.28 and down 3%;
TRIN- .77 with up volume about 50% more than down;
Markets seem to have a short term top near the 1370 level on the SPX with 1385 above that- the bad news this morning- the banks and brokers have all gone from solidly green to red with GS holding on to a 50 cent gain after wonderful earnings news. Keep in mind GS has ripped from the low 160's of late to the mid 185's - a little bit of good news baked in the cake.
And check out Trader Mike's take on the charts-
VIX + MORE on defaults;
The Quant on steam;
6.16.2008
THE ROCK
A choppy day comes to an end with the SPX closing flat and the DJIA down 39 while the tech heavy NAZ was up 20.
Leading sectors were gaming, brokers, ags, metals and banks while telecom, insurance, utils, drugs and defense lagged.
NYSE- 640 net winners;
NAZ- 470 net winners;
NDX- 58 GREEN;
OEX- 45 GREEN;
IBD-83 GREEN;
VIX- down 1.5% at 20.88;
TRIN- closed at 1.1 with up volume a bit better than down and another light volume day;
Crude- trading at $134;
Gold- $885;
EURO- 1.547;
Like I said, a choppy day on the major indexes with out major convition either way- And the SPX is looking at overhead resistance at 1370 and the SMA 50 at 1383 or so.
And after 90 holes - the US OPEN is still tied- great stuff.
MIDDAY ACTION
Markets are mixed with the DJIA down 64- the SPX down 3 and the NAZ up - the RUT/MID are both higher.
Strongest sectors include metals, ags, shipping, gaming, banks and brokers while telecom, utils, drugs and defense lags.
NYSE- 275 net winners;
NAZ- FLAT;
NDX- 45 GREEN;
OEX- 33 GREEN;
IBD- 80 GREEN;
VIX higher by 3% at near 22;
Up volume a hair better than down;
GS was very strong early but has since given up over the gains while LEH continues to move steadily down as the short the pullup group seems to be in charge.
Oils looking good as crude hangs near the $137 level and XTO challenges all time highs near $70-
The rest of the day probably brings choppy trading so probably remaining on the sidelines for now.
THE SADDLE
Back in the saddle after a few days R and R and some personal business- and thanks for the nice comments wondering ab0ut my where abouts- all is well.
The markets open lower with the DJIA -86, NAZ -10 and the SPX -7. The RUT/MID doing better as both are barely red.
Leading sectors include metals, ags, oils, semis, banks and brokers while telecom, utils, retail, defense and gaming lags.
Crude hit a new all time high this morning near the $140 level while gold is also moving on up nearing the $900 level.
VIX- up 6% and a hair above the SMA 10;
RSI (2) levels:
SPX 52
DJIA 45
NAZ 61
NDX 56
MID 64
RUT 63
XLE 73
XLF 73
OIH 71
Markets a bit over sold at these levels but waiting for now as it will take a little while for me to get back in the swing.
The action in GS is encouraging as is the action in all the major banks which are higher on the day.