THE CLOSE

Looks like Cramer and Hogan, two permabulls come to save the markets by declaring today's dip to be a great buying opportunity.

Not sure if big buying opportunities develop when the SPX drips lower by 15 points from recent highs but who am I to argue with these great market gurus.

It looked like short covering into the close as both the DJIA and the SPX recovered most of the losses in the the final 45 minutes. Very impressive.

Strongest sectors were oils and drugs while everything else was lower led by semis, internets, software, brokers and tech.


Market internals improved into the close climbing from a red 2,500 earlier to a negative 1,000 into the close.

Speaking of the guru's guru, his 3 favorite speculative stocks aren't doing so well - LVLT- is his best pick up a nickel to 5.46 from 5.41, ARNA is down $2.4 to 13.01 or 15.6% and Q is down $1 to $7.61 or 11.6% since the picks were put up on realmoney.com on October 27. Thanks Jimmy.

RALLY CAPS

Markets are trying to rally on the heels of the dissapointing ISM news this morning and the Chicago PMI yesterday. Not sure if they will make it all the way back as they have regained about half the losses as I type.

Market internals are improving but still bearish at red 1,600.

The Bond is down to a rate of 4.427% and who exactly would loan money at that rate to anyone for 10 years?

Strongest sectors are oils, retail and metals while tech brokers and biotech lag. The semis are not participating in the ramp back so it just may fail today. AAPL is green while GOOG and GS trade in the pink or slightly red.

As mentioned earlier, the oils were the first to rally and the OIH is up a buck and the XLE is a tad green and back over the $60 mark as crude is still lower and trading at $62.65.

The NDX pictured above is at another pullback area and every time since the middle of June it has been a great time to buy.

THE OPEN

Markets open mixed and quickly faded lower on the heels of the ISM number and on top of the poor Chicago PMI yesterday some significant downside may finally be near.

Market internals are bearish with 1,800 more losers than winners.

The only strong sectors are retail, gaming airlines and some metals.

Weakest sectors include brokers, software, internets, tech, semis and biotechs.

The oils are weak but seem to be holding while the major indexes get crushed.

On a final note, now that Kirk has sold his GM stake maybe, just maybe we won't here bubblevision discuss GM all day. What a waste between GM F IMCL and MSFT they waste hours when they could be discussing ideas that make sense such as oil/metal companies to buy or even which companies may have outsized growth strong earnings and good balance sheets. Maybe a money making idea for once but that never seems on the agenda of CNBC.

THE DIPS

The markets chopped around yesterday and probably chopped up many a day trader as the day started week rallied through most of the day and finished near the unchanged line.

As one can plainly see from the above chart, buying every dip in the SPX has worked great since mid June and most are probably expecting the success to continue through the end of the year. Strong seasonals and performance anxiety will probably keep the markets afloat until it doesn't.

My question is how long before the crummy economic news starts to impact stock prices and takes the lead from lower interest rates. I guess that is the million dollar question. In the meantime I expect folks will keep buying the dips till it stops working.

HEADACHE DAY

After opening lower on the heels of crummy Chicago PMI news, the markets recovered their losses, flipped to green, and closed near flat. I guess we can call that bouncing around. Yes, days after big trending days tend to be bounce around days. True again.

Best sectors were metals, reits, semis, oils, small caps, homies, biotech and software; to the downside financials, gaming, airlines and biotech.

The action in the oils is quite interesting and my $150 target on the OIH may show sooner than I thought. It traded up to the 147.5 level before selling off into the close. The XLE also ramped to $61 before selling in the last hour.

Earlier in the week semis couldn't find a bid, today everyone needs to own them. Why.

Market internals climbed most of the day finishing near the +1,200 level.

The 10 year Bond closed under 4.46% rate and I am just wondering if these rates aren't going considerably lower and that may be the reason for the action in equities. Also check out the homebuilders as they rallied 3.5%. I suspect the 10 year under 4% would be quite bullish for homeowners and home sellers.

And what is the point of pulling out troops in 6 months or so? What will be different then besides more dead soldiers- There will never be a good time so might as well do it now and get it over. Its done. Congrats to the ISG for a politically correct method of getting troops out but dumb in that more soldiers will die as nothing more gets accomplished. These guys just won't get out of a bad trade as it (Iraq) keeps going lower.

NOON TIME LOOK

Markets continue to flop around in negative territory with a NAZ over S session at hand as the SEMIS play catch up and outperform after acting ugly earlier in the week.

Sector winners continue to be metals, reits and semis. Leading lower are brokers, retail, banks, biotechs and airlines.

Oil stocks are taking a little rest today after crude traded briefly over $63 a bbl. I suspect the pause that refreshes as they head higher into the last few weeks of the year.

Market internals are red 125 on NYSE and red 350 on NAZ. Not too bad for a day when the DJIA is down 60 and the SPX is down 5. Fixed income is no doubt skewing the NYSE as the 10 year is now trading at a rate of 4.46%.

AAPL and GOOG are slightly green while GS and MER are trading ugly red. Not sure what the very ugly recent action in the brokers are telling but maybe just some profit taking as they have had a huge move.

Mark up guys usually don't act on the last day of the month but I suppose nothing will keep them from holding the markets flat.

And did anyone see that piece on CNBC about XOM and how one needs to own the stock into the end of the year as the mutual funds buy it even though its a lousy company. Great stuff from yes him.

THE OPEN

Markets are slightly higher at the open with a lot of bouncing around near the flatline. Generally I generally find that days after strong trending days like yesterday the markets stay range bound.

Strongest sectors include metals, drugs, oils, biotech, semis, software and gaming. To the downside retail, airlines and financials.

Market internals are green with a +600 reading on NYSE and flat on NAZ.

The 10 year Bond is still hanging in with a rate of under 4.5% and my guess is as long as rates stay in that area the market selloffs will not be meaningful.

Action in AAPL GS and GOOG, three pretty good tells is mixed so another "hint" that perhaps we go nowhere today. Maybe the Pivots work today so I will have them on my screens.

Ooops there go the markets for now on Chicago PMI.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

The markets closed near the highs and I hope some took advantage of my midday post calling for a rally and that the PM's wouldn't let these gains evaporate. Well damn good call, unfortunately, I didn't get in as it ran away before I could click the BUY button and I don't like to chase.

Strongest sectors were oils, oil service, silver stocks, biotechs, reits, drugs, retail and small caps. To the downside, we found GOOG, semis, trannies, airlines and GS.

Market internals were strong all day never wavering and that was and usually is the best clue of market direction. That and the numerous hits of +1,000 on the TICK.

Not sure why GOOG AAPL and GS did not participate today, but I suspect its another hint that tomorrow and Friday may not be barnburner days for the bulls. In fact I suspect that lots of today's action was MARKERRUPPERERS doing their thing.

Obviously the oils were the story of the day as the OIH closed at 146 and the XLE hit an all time high over $60. Looks like a pretty good bet that both are going to move up and if oil starts to head back to the $70 level; higher oil stocks lower stock stocks.

Not sure if Jimmy Cramer is saying buy the OIH but check this out:

"If you are like me, you are sitting around wondering what the heck happened to all of the sellers of the Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) even though oil is lower -- much lower -- than when they were selling the heck out of it. Where did they go?

It's very hard to understand this stuff, but you know from the get-go I thought this index was being manipulated down and the holders of the oil service stocks were all traders who didn't have any staying power.

Not this time. This is a mutual fund move, with the big funds not being able to be shaken out by hedge fund raids. The hedgies have tried to raid them, but they have failed badly."

However, he did say a few weeks ago to sell them hard at $135 and before that sell them when they get to $115/$120. Of course those were the lows and I suggested on numerous occasions to buy with a target price in the $140/$150 range. I now think that the target should be moved higher even though a short term move lower would not be surprising.

Jim Cramer feels he knows everything about all stocks - I guess if one reads his stuff you know different.

ROLLOVER

The signs of a market sell off were all apparent except for the market internals which continue to trade at a fairly bullish +1,600. The SOX, internets, brokers/GS were pretty convincing evidence that the market was going to give up much of this mornings gains.

However, since the internals continue to trade well and since it is the day before the end of the month I am going to try a long side entry on either the DJIA or SPX futures shortly. The PM's are not going to let these gains disappear this quickly.

GOOD CRUDE

Markets continue to trade higher but there are certaintly some flys in the ointment namely the brokers giving up the days gains and the semis which refuse to participate in the rally. GOOG AAPL GS also all red so HEAD UP. Small caps of course are outperforming the bigger guys and that is bullish along with the great market internals +2,000 on NYSE and +1,250 on the NAZ.

Strongest sectors continue to be oil, oil service, reits, drugs, small caps, retail and biotechs. GOLD and SILVER are lower even though PAAS and SSRI are trading higher. Hmmm.

The oil patch is working out very well for the oil bulls as the OIH has now poked its head
above recent resistance and $150 looks like a good target before year end.

HIGHER OPEN

Markets open strong on the heels of the GDP revision numbers and maybe some end of month performance preassure.

Do not too giddy though as the semis are trading pink in spite of a 1.25% move higher by INTC. So just keep a chart up as semis generally lead.

Strongest sectors include small caps, gaming, drugs, airlines, oils, biotechs and retail. To the downside are metals with the aforementioned semis.

Market internals are very strong with +1,800 on NYSE and +1,150 on the NAZ.

Not for bubblevisions ears but the small caps are outdoing the bigger brethren with a gain of .75% compared to a .5% gain on the SPX and DJIA.

One other area adding strength to the market is the move in the 10 year Bond to under 4.5%

GOLD V SILVER

Folks have been talking about the recent move in GOLD but its the move in SILVER that really stands out. Silver usually leads GOLD and I expect this time will be no different so probably a little catch up now from GOLD. I would be buying GLD/SIL on a pullback to the 21 day SMA and if you want to play the stocks, I suggest SSRI (silver) which has been mentioned a number of times at much lower prices, and GDX for GOLD which is an index of most of the well known gold stocks.

MAD (BELOW AVERAGE) MONEY

Markets closed the day at/near their highs as suspected in light of the day of the month and the protect the gains scenario.

Sector winners included oils, brokers, silver, tech, drugs and small caps while semis, trannies, retail, internets, software and airlines were lower. The semi sector recovered about 2/3rds of its early losses into the close and may be a strong area for the rest of the week.

Market internals flipped to green with +975 on NYSE and flat on NAZ. The fixed income skewed again with the rates back down to 4.5% on the 10 year Bond.

And for the bad news, Cramer is now yacking on his site about missing the oil rally and now "must own" XOM. Ugh.

Another site is tracking Jimmy and he is even responding trying to defend his record. Hmmm, check out the CXO blog to get the whole scoop but here is their conclusion:

"Mr. Cramer's predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic, and back again, over short periods. It is difficult to infer his guiding valuation theory. We wonder whether he tends to be swayed by the arguments of forceful advocates with whom he recently interacted.

Investor sentiment is sometimes an important contrarian indicator for him. When he sees most investors leaning one way, he advises to go the other way.

He sometimes anchors on historical analogies (samples of one), such as: "it's '91 all over again" or "I'm placing my bets for 2004 strictly using 1994's tip sheet."

He is prone more to headline hyperbole than equivocation. For example, from 1/21/01: "This is the lowest-risk, highest-reward environment possible." Approximate Index values <(NAZ 2,600 SPX 1,360)>

And from 3/24/03: "...the risks of owning stocks are as high as I have ever seen them, and the rewards the least certain." Approximate Index values <(NAZ 1,000 SPX 850)>.

Mr. Cramer is right about 47% of the time with his stock market predictions, just below average."

So what are those odds with slippage/commissions and the time value of watching him and the CNBC sycophants? Not a good use of time or money but definitely fun to blog about.

TICKS TRICKS

The markets have rallied and are trading near their highs for the day as the DJIA is +25, NAZ+5 and SPX+6.

The TICK hit +1,000 a few times during the day and that was a pretty good "tell" that their were folks who wanted to buy the markets. Some of that power I suspect was the PM's that didn't want to let the markets fall apart two days before the end of the month.

I find the TICK to probably be the best indication of whether the markets will rally later in the day. I bought the DJIA Futures at the 12,130 level and just let them go at the 12,160 area for an nice 30 point gain. I urge anyone who wants to day trade keep a nice big chart of the TICK with +1,000, +800, zero and -600 areas highlighted.

I suspect that the market sell off is not done and we will see more selling into the end of the week. The 50 day SMA on the SPX near the 1,365 level DJIA (12,000) is still on my radar.

EARLY PM LOOK

Markets continue to bounce around on the heels of Big Ben's comments and an oversold condition. I continue to expect the market to get a little jig this afternoon as Fund managers try to goose the market higher to preserve gains and bonuses for as long as possible.

Sector winners continue to be in the oil patch, brokers and drugs. Leading lower include semis, trannies, gaming, airlines, internets and metals.

Market internals about as flat as they get withe +350 on NYSE (fixed income skew) and -300 on NAZ.

GS DNA MER AAPL all higher while GOOG JPM LVS INTC MSFT all lower.

The DJIA is evenly split between winners and loser with XOM VZ MO JNJ and DD leading higher and HD JPM GM CAT GE and INTC leading lower.

The big fly in the ointment remains the semis as the SMH is lower by about 1.5% while the NAZ is barely down.

CRUDE TECHINCALS

The crude reality is that the oil and oil service stocks have acted very well of late and better than crude which refuses to go below $58 and has a hard time gaining momentum above $60.

The OIH is up $3 plus to $141+ today and looks to be attacking its recent highs of $143+ on the way back to $150+ in my opinion. The XLE is approaching its old high of $60 and maybe into the mid $60's before the year ends. Just hoping that Cramer doesn't turn bullish on the oils.

And isn't is good to see that Ned Riley on CNBC is bullish and expecting the markets to go much higher. Oh and he expects oil at $40 a bbl. I wonder where all the perma bulls would have told us the markets would go if Oil went to $70+ and the dems took control of both Houses. No doubt lower but since it happened I am now bullish because I am always bullish regardless.

OPENING CHECK

Markets open mixed to lower with the NAZ and the small caps acting the worst.

Sectors leading higher include the hated oils and oil service followed by metals, brokers and drugs. WMT KLAC and GS are all higher so maybe just maybe Turnaroud Tuesday is on tap.

Worst sectors include airlines, trannies, semis, GOOG, gaming, retail, tech and biotech.

Market internals are a bit bearish with about 600 more losers than winners.

The 10 year Bond rate is now down to 4.5% which is the lowest in quite some time. Any chance of a bonds to equity allocation. I say yes but probably not today.

The TICK has already hit the magic +1,000 mark a few times and when that happens it is usually bullish. I don't think so today as we probably just bounce around.

Also, yesterday the volume on the NYSE was a very bearish 9/1 down to up which when it happens in reverse is very bullish. Lots of folks may look at it as capitulation but I don't think so.

PRE OPEN TECHNICALS

Markets had an ugly day yesterday on the heels of some not so great shopping news from WMT and a crushing in the dollar.

I expect some continued weakness for the balance of the week and maybe a turn at the 50 day SMA or somewhere near the 1365/1370 level on the SPX. That would equate to a DJIA number near or slightly under 12,000.

THE CLOSE

Just a bit too bullish today as the DJIA closed down 155, SPX -19 and NAZ -53. Usually the lows come in at -150, -15 and -40 so a little worse than usual as the NAZ gets spanked big and the DJIA comes in on schedule.

The only Sector winner was metals and worst groups were brokers, internets, tech, airlines, GOOG and biotechs.

Market internals also as bad as they get with 4,000 more losers than winners.

I didn't take any buy signals today and will wait to see what Turnaround Tuesday may bring. I also have some index shorts from lower levels that I am not covering yet. Any chance the markets go lower than we think possible in light of this steep uptrend.

LOVE THE CRAMER

Jimmy comes on with Erin and tells us that folks won't buy HD TV's at WMT cause they don't want to buy from employees who are making minimum wage etc. Just who does Jimmy think is working at BBY or CC, where he is bullish on electronic sales. Great stuff thanks Jimmy. And for folks who are looking for an update on his three favorite speculative stocks- Here goes:


ARNA- 14.04 down from his recommended price of 15.41 or 9% from October 27.

LVLT 5.01 down from his recommended price of 5.41 or 7.5% from October 27.

Q 7.52 down from his recommended price of 8.1 or 13% from October 27.

Not exactly stellar but I will keep on tracking them.

BUY SIGNALS

Buy signals at last as underinvested bulls can buy the markets if they so desire. We have the 2 day RSI on the SPX under 10 and the VIX trading at over 110% of its 10 day SMA.

Of course now that the market has made a U TURN folks may not want to buy so quickly.

The SPX has also traded through its 8 day SMA and is close to its 21 day SMA of 1,387.

Market internals are as ugly as they usually get with about 3,200 more losers than winners.

The explanation for the sell off has centered on the crushing of the dollar which hit a 20 month low against the EURO.

If you are itching to buy remember that markets that are weak all day tend to close at/near their lows. Also, the DJIA SPX and NAZ usually don't go down more than 150, 15 and 40 point in one day respectively.

Strongest sectors remain the metals, oils and the gaming stocks with the brokers, airlines, techs and internets taking the brunt of the downturn.

OPENING LOOK

Markets open lower with the DJIA-44, NAZ -12 and SPX -3.

Sector leaders include casinos, metals, oils, retail, and semis. Leading lower include GOOG down 9 bucks, airlines, brokers, software, biotech, financials and small caps.

Market internals are red with negative 1,000 on NYSE and negative 950 on NAZ.

Ticks are mainly in the red so the markets may just have a little problem getting some traction this morning as the SPX has cracked the 1,400 level and is trading near 1,397 and many are looking at the 1,390/1,395 level as support since that was the blast off number of a few weeks ago.

The casino stocks are ripping higher again led by LVS WYNN and MGM. Not sure if its great goings at Macau, vegas or what but they seem to move higher most days.

Tax selling in oils and metals doesn't seem to be happening either as both sectors are strong again.

Not much moving on the DJIA as PFE HD XOM T MRK are higher and AA WMT AIG PG HON and IBM are all lower.

PREOPEN CALLS

Some morning highlights via briefing.com:

GS adds CE to their conviction buy list and drops APD.

AAPL- ThinkEquity raises their tgt on AAPL to $110 from $100, saying their proprietary "Black Friday" survey of Apple Retail stores across the nation indicates likely upside to their Retail Store rev est of $1.45 bln for 1Q07. Firm believes that AAPL's Retail Store is a clear differentiator and a significant catalyst for further CPU share gains and profit margin expansion.

CC announces it guarantees the lowest holiday TV prices; on any TV, co says it will beat the competitor's price by 25% of the difference (24.25 ).


SNE - PS3 problems abound as second batch to hit shelves in December - Digitimes (39.63 )
Digitimes reports while Sony is preparing to deliver its second batch of PS3 game consoles in December, consumers who are currently enjoying the new gaming device reportedly have encountered problems with the console, including overheating, inability to start up the console, and a lower display resolution from its Blu-ray Disc player, according to market sources. Problems related to overheating and inability to start the machine were reported since the PS3 launched in mid-November. Reports have circulated recently in the US retail market saying that when used with older high-definition (HD) TVs that support only a 1080i resolution, the PS3 displays 720p resolution games at only 480p. Sources at Sony said this problem could be caused by a firmware problem and that the company will resolve the problem as soon as possible.


MGM Mirage profiled in New America section of IBD (54.22 ) on Wednesday, MGM majority owner Kirk Kerkorian said he would add to his MGM stake. He agreed to pay $825 mln for 15 mln more MGM shares at a 12% premium, sending the stock up 10%. Shares had already been moving up since mid-September. With MGM Grand's joint venture in the gaming mecca of Macau off the China coast looking to be on track to open in the fourth quarter of 2007, investors have more reason to look favorably at MGM, analysts say. Concern about CityCenter, which is expected to open in 2009, has also been quelled. Oversupply isn't such an issue because several big projects planned for Las Vegas were postponed or canceled.


MMC could get good price for Putnam: WSJ (31.86 )-Reuters reports Marsh & McLennan could be in a good position to get an impressive price for its Putnam Investments money management arm, despite some recent troubles at the unit, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site on Monday. Bids were expected last week from at least three firms, including fund manager Amvescap Plc., Italian bank Unicredit and Power Corp of Canada, the paper said.