11.29.2006

CLOSING THOUGHTS


The markets closed near the highs and I hope some took advantage of my midday post calling for a rally and that the PM's wouldn't let these gains evaporate. Well damn good call, unfortunately, I didn't get in as it ran away before I could click the BUY button and I don't like to chase.

Strongest sectors were oils, oil service, silver stocks, biotechs, reits, drugs, retail and small caps. To the downside, we found GOOG, semis, trannies, airlines and GS.

Market internals were strong all day never wavering and that was and usually is the best clue of market direction. That and the numerous hits of +1,000 on the TICK.

Not sure why GOOG AAPL and GS did not participate today, but I suspect its another hint that tomorrow and Friday may not be barnburner days for the bulls. In fact I suspect that lots of today's action was MARKERRUPPERERS doing their thing.

Obviously the oils were the story of the day as the OIH closed at 146 and the XLE hit an all time high over $60. Looks like a pretty good bet that both are going to move up and if oil starts to head back to the $70 level; higher oil stocks lower stock stocks.

Not sure if Jimmy Cramer is saying buy the OIH but check this out:

"If you are like me, you are sitting around wondering what the heck happened to all of the sellers of the Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) even though oil is lower -- much lower -- than when they were selling the heck out of it. Where did they go?

It's very hard to understand this stuff, but you know from the get-go I thought this index was being manipulated down and the holders of the oil service stocks were all traders who didn't have any staying power.

Not this time. This is a mutual fund move, with the big funds not being able to be shaken out by hedge fund raids. The hedgies have tried to raid them, but they have failed badly."

However, he did say a few weeks ago to sell them hard at $135 and before that sell them when they get to $115/$120. Of course those were the lows and I suggested on numerous occasions to buy with a target price in the $140/$150 range. I now think that the target should be moved higher even though a short term move lower would not be surprising.

Jim Cramer feels he knows everything about all stocks - I guess if one reads his stuff you know different.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Most dangerous day!Today...
If the market surges it would have avoided the death. Tomorrow, also important, but less so.
Tune in for intraday updates
Good Trading
To read more go to
http://borisc.blogspot.com

Now the comment about OIL.
Nobody, well almost nobody, wanted
to sell OILs when I issued a sell,
with XOI at 1220!. Then I suggested to by them at 1070 or so.
Still holding 25% of those units LONG and took profits on 75%.

So, one might say if anybody has the right to "knowing" this market,
then I do.

In any case, I think 1220 being approached is where one needs to be careful. This time the whole OIL
complex may crumble ( big oil included, CVX,XOM,PTR COP etc).
If they survive, there is a crisis
coming from the meadle-east and we
could see the rocket of the OIL/XOI/OIH ... and GOOOOOOOLD.

Regards

4:48 AM  

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