THE CLOSE

After chopping around most of the day, the markets closed on their lows as higher oil put a bit of a crimp on equities. Other explanations could be that mark up folks don't like to mark up on the last day of the month/quarter or maybe that equities are no longer looked at as under valued after the huge run from the summer lows.

On Monday we have the beginning of the month end money which should give the market a bit of a bid although maybe some folks will look at the calendar and see October and decide not to put money to work just yet.

Sector winners today were oils and some brokers. Big losers were retail, semis, metals, tech and airlines.

The semicondutor stocks were down all day and were giving the hint that this market was going nowhere today in spite of the CNBC cheerleaders wishing for the DJIA to stay above the old highs. No such luck but I am sure we will hear from them again on Monday.

Market internals were flat most of the day but closed with about 1,200 more losers than winners.

Volatility indexes didn't budge much as the VIX/VXO combo closed at 12/and 11.35 respectively.

Be careful out there, my gut says oil may have another day in the sun and if it does, this market can fall faster than it went up.

MAD MONEY FRAUD

I was just watching Erin interview Jim Cramer about the markets and Jim was saying that folks who thought the markets were overvalued were just wrong. Then Erin brought up GM and how shrewd Jim was liking GM back when it was $18. Jim did not deny it or correct anything she said. I actually couldn't believe my ears knowing that I read something different from Jim on his realmoney.com site when he made his annual DJIA year end predictions. Here is what he said about GM:

"General Motors (GM:NYSE) : Oops! What happens when this one goes to zero? That's what it is worth, by the way. I believe that if I were running GM, I would just do a prepackaged bankruptcy and let 'er rip. That's right, I would demolish this common stock. Of course, the people who run this company are so clueless they still are paying out a gigantic dividend. I don't know if the keepers of the Dow will keep GM in as it goes down the drain. I also believe that the company will drag this out as long as possible, which is just plain stupid. I see no earnings and no dividend in 2006, which means the stock trades to $10 and really keeps the averages from ramping. I see no hope whatsoever here, even as I hope that I am wrong! "


The date that was written was January 6, 2006 and as someone smart said a long time ago, YOU CAN LOOK IT UP.

How can no one question him and his disingenuous.

CHOP CHOP

Markets trade flat with NAZ slightly higher/ DJIA flat / SPX slightly lower.

Market internals continue to indicate a choppy trading day with 300 more losers than winners.

Sector leaders include internets, airlines, brokers and biotechs. To the downside, metals, trannies, semis and retail.

I am watching interest rates as they are starting to tick up off their lows of a few days ago. My guess is that if rates tick up, stocks tick down. Oil also on the screens but as it trades down this AM, the oil stocks are mixed to slightly higher.

On the all important DJIA, HPQ DIS VZ GM lead while DD XOM AXP GE and KO lag. My worst fear is that this DJIA just bounces around these levels and the journalists on CNBC continue to harp on how far above or below the record we are at any particular time during the day. UGH.

THE OPEN

Markets have opened slightly lower with some interesting leaders and laggards. Surprisingly, with lower oil the XLE and OIH are both higher; lagging and red right at the open in are the Semis; lower by almost 1%.

Other sector leaders include brokers, small caps and biotech. In addition to the semis, - metals, trannies, drugs, tech and retailers are lower.

Market internals about flat.

Interesting that I saw an upgrade earlier on GOOG and it is lower and most of tech is lower after the NAZ Futures were outperforming in the premarket.

GS continues to act great with the rest of the brokers as it is up another 50 cents this AM to 170.4.

I am a bit leery about today in light of underperforming semis and mark up guys not being allowed to operate on the last day of the month (SEC rule- lol). Another question I keep asking is how many bulls are now long the market and expecting a big ramp and how much ammo is still available to keep it going?

THE NEAR CLOSE

Out early today but hope some folks made some money on the marker upperers. And hope some folks bought some of the DOW Futures-

MARK UPS

Mark up folks are back at work getting this market back up to the morning highs as the techs, semis, financials, oils and internets are leading the way.

As suspected the mark up folks are having their way after the morning sell off fake out.

DJIA winners include GM INTC JPM CAT HPQ and VZ while MCD MRK PFE PG T and MSFT trail.

DJIA futures back up to 11,775 after hitting a low of 11,730 this morning after touching the 11790 level near the open.

Market internals have flipped to green at +300 and banks and brokers are acting well. GS and MER are approaching new highs at 170 and 79 respectively and that is bullish for the day at least.

Don't forget, when the mark up guys/gals use that ammo to push up quarter end prices, they are using other peoples money to generate month end/quarter end performance which is directly linked to their pay. Yes shocking.

My game plan is to sell into these "record" highs and I expect a selloff next week after the beginning of the month money is put to work.

NOONISH

Markets are weaker at the noon hour with winners in the oil patch, semis, metals, and internets. Losers can be found with airlines, small caps,biotechs, tech, trannies and drugs.

Market internals have flopped fairly negative with about 1,150 more losers than winners.

My expectation for the afternoon, the mark up gang will have plenty of ammo for a ramp up and another try for the DJIA record.

OPENING NONSENSE

So with all the hoopla David Faber and Art Cashen both told Erin and Haines that the DJIA making a new high was basically meaningless. Quoting Faber, call me when the SPX makes a new high. We did hit the DJIA high as the Futures traded up near the 11,800 level before selling off with the market.

Sectors acting best today include semis, metals, biotechs and metals with the biggest losers being brokers, airlines, retail and drugs. Interesting that all the major brokers on my screens are red, so not a pretty sight from them.

Market internals are slightly bearish with 400 more winners than losers after starting the day with about 2,000 more winners. I think they call that the fleecing of the retail investor who was all excited about the new DJIA high and bought the open. The goal of wall street, to seperate you from your money.

PRE OPEN LOOK

The all important DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE will again be on the radar screen as it is just 33 points away from an all time closing high and about 66 points away from the all time high. Of course if you really don't have much interest in following price weighted indexes, I can understand it. Anyhow, I expect the boys will hit the target shortly and then the fireworks should begin as to whether we continue higher or something else developes.

Yesterday's action was pretty "telling" as we had a lousy durable goods order in the morning which the markets quickly shrugged off; higher oil prices, which the markets also shrugged off into the close and today we have GDP revised downward and higher rates on the 10 year Bond. I expect more shrugoffs as it appears to this trader that this market wants to at least tag the old DJIA high.

THE CLOSE

Sorry for the lack of (meaningful) posts today as I was just too caught up in the DJIA Party like its 1999 festivities. What a joke these folks who write the programming for CNBC. It is just brutal as the NAZ/SPX are still way off their old highs and CNBC pretends that the DJIA is the market. Yes, the dopey price weighted index of 30 stocks. Companies like MMM/IBM/BA have 2 to 3 times the index value as INTC/MSFT/GM/GE. I would have a lot more respect for the CNBC "journalists" if any of them ever mentioned that it was a dopey index as market capitalization is irrelevant and stock splits become highly relevant.

Anyhow, I won't beat around the bush, I am long DJIA Futures and anticipate closing out the position once the new highs hit. Heck, with cheerleaders like Maria, Mark, Bob, Dylan etal how can the trade not work?

Back to more relevant stuff, best performing sectors were DNA GOLD SLV INTC, metals, oils, biotechs, small caps (outperformed big caps) and consumers. Losers were AAPL EBAY KLAC ORCL, internets, brokers, CSCO, retails, semis (late day switch to red after leading) and tech.

NYSE market internals were green all day and closed fairly strong with 750 more winners than losers. NAZ wasn't nearly as good as it was near the flat line much of the day and closed 350 to the green.

The oils were very strong today and the OIH looks like it will make short work of the $130 level; and GOOG sold off about $8 from its high and I haven't investigated the reason (maybe none).

Financials never got going today and had downward pointing charts most of the day although MER and GS managed to climb in the final hour.

For the umpteenth time, the markets are overbought and a selloff after the new DJIA high will probably welcome to bull and bear alike.

MORE MARKETS

For what it is worth, the market internals are +900 on the NYSE and +540 on NAZ- so they are pointing North- The fly in the ointment today is the action in the banks and brokers as those charts have turned down on the day.

Final point, has anyone noticed that the OIH is trading back up near the $130 level and about 8% off the recent lows as crude has remained in the $61 area?

MORNING COMMENTS

It's an exciting day on Wall Street or at least CNBC where we find the SPY up nine cents, the QQQQ higher by seven cents and the all important DJIA higher by 37.

It is kind of ridiculous when there are well over seven thousand stocks traded everyday, the geniuses at CNBC have decided to focus on thirty big ones. Obviously they focus on what ever index is going up lately for if the NAZ were approaching its all time high and the DJIA were 55% below its all time high, there would not be a word mentioned about it.

Anyhow, today markets are slightly higher as SEMIS lead with financials lagging. Other winners include oils, biotechs, techs and small caps. Worst groups are internets, metals and brokers.

I will go out on a limb and predict we get near the all time DJIA high today and I its been a while but I recommend this article from Revshark as he mentions many of the things I have been saying for several days now.

PRE OPEN CHECK

Futures markets are trading lower this AM on the heels of the lousy durable goods numbers and CNBC will have to wait at least a little while before it breaks out the 11752 (all time high) hats. Before the durable goods numbers, futures were of course higher. Yes, the guy at left one of the worst as he says this AM that market might bust through record by noon. Of course a few months ago he got bearish and told folks to sell. Thanks Art- nice going

As mentioned yesterday, market internals have been lagging the price action of the major indexes as SPX and DIA have acted great while RUT and SMH haven't acted nearly as well. In addition, yesterday, a day where the major indexes were at/near five year highs, there were about 250 new 52 week highs on the NYSE and NAZ and about 70 new lows. Hardly the numbers one would expect in light of the major index action. So, what is the lousy action under the indexes telling us? Well one thing for sure, ROTATION, as we have rotated out of oils which made new highs months ago to stocks like AXP AZO GS MCD PBG DRIV AKAM etc which are making the highs now. Another thing, if you check your mutual funds, you are probably beginning to lag the indexes as the typical stock isn't acting as well as SPY or DIA. Same thing happened in 1999/2000 and the ending wasn't so happy.

BREAK OUTS

The markets again appear to be breaking out and the Phillie Fed numbers from last Thursday are again part of a distant past, or maybe its end of month/end of quarter shenanigans or MARKUPS. Check out the action in the QQQQ relative to the SMH. Doubtful in my opinion that this action will continue in light of these divergences.

A closer under the surface look at today's action finds the following- NAZ market internals with 1,600 winners and 1,400 losers; the SMH ETF higher by six cents as I type with big daddy INTC up 2.75%, indicating pretty crummy action from the rest of the group; the IWM small cap index up eight cents.

And if you think the major market indexes will continue higher with out these two "leading players" well not likely as today has all the indications of month end quarter/end mark ups.

Volatility indexes down 4%/5% and back to the 10.5 and 11.5 levels for the VXO/VIX respectively.

My trading lately is all DJIA Futures, buying and selling dips and rips based on TICKS and pivots. It works very well if one concentrates, uses great discipline and is quick on the trigger.

QUICK HEADS UP

Small caps and Semis have been lagging badly all morning and with NAZ internals a crummy +200 while DJIA FUTS +50, SPX FUTS +6 and NAZ FUTS+4, I would be very leery about buying at these levels. VXO also back under 11 another signal that buying these levels is not a great trade.

OPENING CHECK

Markets trade higher with relative strength in the DJIA sans MO and relative weakness in the semi/ small cap space.

Internals are slightly green with 1,100 more winners than losers.

Sectors leading the way include EBAY, INTC metals, trannies, internets, AAPL; losing groups include semis, biotechs, small caps and oils.

One little poll i wish to take today; who do you find to be the most valuable and least valuable CNBC market analyst. I am including all those who appear and not just the old guest hosts. So folks lke Jeff Saut (my fav) and Liz Ann Sonders all qualify. Just a little amusement a maybe a good post for later on or maybe even an email to the genius CNBC executives.

Email me at day54@yahoo.com.

TECHNICALS-OIH

One observation about the recent action in the OIH is the hammer formation yesterday which may be a signal of a temporary low. Of course it won't hold if oil continues to drop as many a bear suspects and revisits the $12 a barrel level.

For anyone with interest in daytrading the Index ETF's or FUTURES, John Carter has a great video here on when to fade the high TICKS and when to buy the high TICKS. I agree 100% as a great short term signal is the action of the TICKS above and below the flat line. Yesterday afternoon, TICKS spent abut 98% of the time above the flat line. A pretty good signal that buyers were everywhere and the markets were going higher.

VALUE ADDED

Just listening to some smart analyst on CNBC mentioning how one really can't own HEALTH CARE under democrats. Well here is proof positive- The DRG index goes from about 75 to 375 under Bill Clinton and from 375 to 350 under W. Value added from analyst A.

Commentators will give you all kinds of explanations as to why it did well under Clinton and poorly under Bush, with each President having nothing to do with the performance, but the analyst isn't talking issues he is talking parties. So just take advice like that with >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

MARKEMUP

Looks like the month end Markerupperers at work today taking up just about all sectors. The SEMI's have been leading all day after opening lower. The NAZ futures also dipped in the early trade but have since galloped higher as they are + 20 as I type.

Market internals have flipped to green with NYSE +1,000 and NAZ less bullish at +300. Lots of crosscurrents as oil has gotten a bid which may lead to lower equities as the old relationship seems to be reappearing (higher oil = lower equity).

Sectors acting best today include AAPL LEH KLAC SOX INTC ORCL techs, retail, brokers and oils. Metals and trannies the only downside sectors and it seems like the buy the dip is the daytrade of the day.

I continue to focus on the semis/small caps and financials for market direction as they seem to lead both up and down.

PISANI FACTOR

About an hour ago, Bob noted (crowed) how there are many Telecom stocks on the new high list and many oil stocks on the new low list today and who would have thought something like that could possibly happen.

Well my answer to Bob would be - Hey Bob- maybe its time to sell the telecom and buy some oils?

Back to the markets, they are fairly flat as I type after opening higher, moving lower and now climbing back.

Market internals are about as flat as they get and up/down volume on the NYSE is slanted a bit toward the downside.

Semi stocks were the first group to head higher (+.9%) after an early morning selloff followed by the small caps which have now turned flat.

Other sectors/stocks looking good include AAPL LEH KLAC INTC BSC airlines, techs and retail. The worst groups include oils, metals and trannies.

So far a choppy day and more of the same expected. Only trade so far was a buy of the DIA futs near the pivot and a sell as the ticks ripped higher around 11:20. Tick fade trades generally work well in a choppy environment.

And why doesn't anyone on CNBC mention the possibility of a double top. Oh always bullish.

NOT SO HIGHER

Markets are higher this morning on the heels of lower rates and lower crude. Loser on the day is MO, which is lower on news of a judge certifiying a class action suit. I think we have seen this picture before.

Now for the bad news, market internals are flat and small caps are lower as are the semis, trannies, biotechs, oils and metals.

Ticks are starting trade under the flat line and the volume on the NYSE has just flipped to down leading up and the NAZ COMP has already lost half their morning gains as has the SPX.

Higher sectors include brokers, banks, drugs and retailers.

I plan on keeping a close eye on the semis and the small caps as they have been the best tells for the markets.

PRE OPEN

Markets are set to gap higher on the heels of crude under $60, the 10 year Bond under 4.6% and higher overseas markets.

In the what ever is working lately chart, check the 20 day SMA on the SPX. Yes, it had been a good resistance level when the markets were bearish and now looks like a pretty good support area as the markets have been bullish.

The Ticker Sense Blogger sentiment poll finds good news for the bulls as 33% are bullish and 50% are bearish.

Also check out Captain Kirk's latest linkfest. He is the man who can find a link about anything.

TECHNICALS-COMPQ

The NAZ COMP is trading right at it 200 day SMA after ramming through it a few days ago. Notice the last time it ran up to the 20o day back in June, the markets took an ugly turn down.

This time, the stochastics are overbought and may just be turning lowre and MACD Histogram has certaintly made a lower low as the COMPQ made a higher high. A check of the Rate of Change indicator shows the same picture with a lower high. So the question is are we out of juice? My bet is yes, however, I note lots of weekend commentary on why the markets will be heading lower next week. Just food for thought as we all know the markets don't like to accomodate the crowds.

Final comment. Why do the American golfers do so well in the big golf tournaments but fair so poorly when they go head to head with the Europeans at Ryder Cups?