THE CLOSE
Sorry for the lack of (meaningful) posts today as I was just too caught up in the DJIA Party like its 1999 festivities. What a joke these folks who write the programming for CNBC. It is just brutal as the NAZ/SPX are still way off their old highs and CNBC pretends that the DJIA is the market. Yes, the dopey price weighted index of 30 stocks. Companies like MMM/IBM/BA have 2 to 3 times the index value as INTC/MSFT/GM/GE. I would have a lot more respect for the CNBC "journalists" if any of them ever mentioned that it was a dopey index as market capitalization is irrelevant and stock splits become highly relevant.
Anyhow, I won't beat around the bush, I am long DJIA Futures and anticipate closing out the position once the new highs hit. Heck, with cheerleaders like Maria, Mark, Bob, Dylan etal how can the trade not work?
Back to more relevant stuff, best performing sectors were DNA GOLD SLV INTC, metals, oils, biotechs, small caps (outperformed big caps) and consumers. Losers were AAPL EBAY KLAC ORCL, internets, brokers, CSCO, retails, semis (late day switch to red after leading) and tech.
NYSE market internals were green all day and closed fairly strong with 750 more winners than losers. NAZ wasn't nearly as good as it was near the flat line much of the day and closed 350 to the green.
The oils were very strong today and the OIH looks like it will make short work of the $130 level; and GOOG sold off about $8 from its high and I haven't investigated the reason (maybe none).
Financials never got going today and had downward pointing charts most of the day although MER and GS managed to climb in the final hour.
For the umpteenth time, the markets are overbought and a selloff after the new DJIA high will probably welcome to bull and bear alike.
Anyhow, I won't beat around the bush, I am long DJIA Futures and anticipate closing out the position once the new highs hit. Heck, with cheerleaders like Maria, Mark, Bob, Dylan etal how can the trade not work?
Back to more relevant stuff, best performing sectors were DNA GOLD SLV INTC, metals, oils, biotechs, small caps (outperformed big caps) and consumers. Losers were AAPL EBAY KLAC ORCL, internets, brokers, CSCO, retails, semis (late day switch to red after leading) and tech.
NYSE market internals were green all day and closed fairly strong with 750 more winners than losers. NAZ wasn't nearly as good as it was near the flat line much of the day and closed 350 to the green.
The oils were very strong today and the OIH looks like it will make short work of the $130 level; and GOOG sold off about $8 from its high and I haven't investigated the reason (maybe none).
Financials never got going today and had downward pointing charts most of the day although MER and GS managed to climb in the final hour.
For the umpteenth time, the markets are overbought and a selloff after the new DJIA high will probably welcome to bull and bear alike.
posted by DAVID at
4:29 PM
1 Comments:
A market can stay overbought/ oversold for a long time especially when the internals (up/down ratio) are more or less evenly balanced. If today A,B, and C are up and X, Y, and Z are down and tomorrow the reverse occurs the market will stay in a neutral state reflecting its last known dynamic configuration.
In other words if A through Z all acted to put the market in the overbought configuration and now traders are rotating in and out of the mix buying the dips and selling the rips then you are not going to get much direction out of the "market". Especially with low volume as we have been having lately. (DIA finally had a volume spike yesterday probably in anticipation of the new record).
NAZ, as you call it, has had all of the 90's volatility beaten out of it. In its own way it is approaching a top - just one that reflects today's volatility. In the same regard the DOW has long since exceeded its 90's top (relative to volatility). This is why even with the market going up trading has been so difficult.
Be careful with the absolute values of the "market" - they are extremely misleading. I use normalized returns in all of my "market" calculations.
Have a good day.
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