TECHNICALS-SPX/DJIA

For what its worth, looking at the SPX/DJIA charts, substantial resistance is rapidly approaching as we approach the 50 SMA (CLICK ON CHART) on the SPX at/near 1,425 and the 50% retracement (1,576-1,270) also near 1,425.

The DJIA - about the same pattern with the 50 SMA at/near 12,975 and the 50% retracement (14,198-11,635) at near 12,920.

And with the VIX under the 10 SMA and heavy resistance not far away, its probably time to tighten up. Remember, this is an ugly downtrend and the 50 SMA is sloping DOWN. Until this resistance is busted - its an overall ugly downtrend.

CLOSING RAMP

Markets closed at/near the highs of the afternoon after sinking near mid day. The DJIA +96. NAZ +23 and SPX +17. And the RUT was the best major index of the day higher by 2.36% and is now better on the year then the SPX although trailing the DJIA.

Strongest sectors- internets, semis, airlines, China, reits/real estate, oils and utils while metals, telecom, retail and drugs lagged.

Key stocks- 28 /40 higher- leaders- ISRG NVDA SMH CELG KLAC BG C UA GS MER- losers- GOOG MSFT BIDU AMZN ICE MS GRMN RIMM AAPL;

NYSE- 1,800 net winners;
NAZ- 1,000 net winners;
NDX-73 GREEN;
OEX-85 GREEN;
IBD 100- 80 GREEN;

VIX - down by about 8% and trading under the 90% of 10 SMA level;

Up vol- 6X Down vol;

TRIN- .70;

Markets ramped in the afternoon after the midday weakness was bought. The internals and the financials were the clue that this markets was going higher in the afternoon. Usually, the internals don't lie and if they stay strong while the markets sell off - its usually a high percentage trade to buy.

Super bowl sunday- actually I don't like either team so maybe they can both lose, although not likely.

NOON MUSINGS

Markets are mixed at the noon hour after ripping higher earlier. What happened, the Justice Department decided to run a headline that said they are "interested in review of MSFT YHOO deal."

MID's up almost 1% while the NAZ/DJIA are red;

Strongest sectors- HHH SMH FXI SOX RMZ MOO RMZ XLU- laggards- HUI RLX HGX XLY;

NYSE- 1100 net winners;
NAZ- 350 net winners;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
OEX-70 GREEN;
IBD 100-70 GREEN;

VIX- down 5% and sitting near sell territory;

Up vol- more than 2X Down vol;

TRIN- .94;

In addition to the Justice department news, markets hit a wall near the January 16 highs near the 1,390 level. Lots of resistance near there.

The good news for the day- internals are very strong in light of the mixed indexes and the important sectors are doing pretty well. My guess is another ramp higher before the afternoon trading ends.

And any shot that GOOG becomes the next AOL?

THE OPEN

It appears as if the markets are off to the races as the pullback on the jobs number was quickly bought and the DJIA is now +100, NAZ +27 and SPX +16. The RUT/MID indexes way up over 2% as I type.

Strong sectors include- internets, semis, emerging markets, oils, small caps, tech, airlines and utils- lagging are drugs, healthcare and retail.

Key stocks- 33/40 higher- ISRG UA BG SMH NVDA CELG MA WYNN C MTW KLAC- losers- GOOG MSFT AMZN BIDU MS VMW MCD CME;

NYSE- 1,700 net winners;

NAZ- 1,200 net winners;

NDX- 88 GREEN;

OEX-90 GREEN;

IBD 100- 88 GREEN;

VIX- down about 5% and at the 10% below the 10 SMA;

Up vol- 6X Down vol;

TRIN- .71

Technically, well the 1,400 level on the SPX is the next target and with internals and sectors all solidly green - today may be the day.

THE BULL

So MSFT buying YHOO and the stock trading up near 30 will send the HHH up about $6 as YHOO is about 20% the ETF. GOOG getting slammed after dissappointing the street and is anyone shocked that the stock is way down- just about all stocks that dissappointed in the slightest and have had good runs have been crushed. And was the barron's article on market caps any more of an indication of where GOOG was going?

Hopefully, no one is surprised that all of a sudden there is demand for equities. Come on, with SPX now projecting $99 for 2008 earnings and the PE at 14.14 and the 10 year Bond at 3.63% - where is the value. Yes the $99 number may be optimistic but even at $90, its still a PE of 15.5 and with with rates low and earnings looking up going forward (after 2008) - one should want to own equities for the long term. And of course since they have done nothing over the last 7 years- all the more reason that they should do pretty pretty well over the next 7.

Vince - any comments?

MORE JANUARY PUNCHED

IBB-3.7%
AMGN FLAT

HHH -14.8%
SMH -13.3%
XLK -12.8%
AAPL -31.7%
INTC- 20.9%
MSFT -8.4%
BIDU -28.2%
GOOG -24.1% (after hours)
YHOO +29% (pre open)

HUI +12.1%

GLD+11%

SLV +14.4%
PAAS +3.7%
SSRI -4.8%
FCX -13.3%
BHP-5.1%

JANUARY PUNCHED

The month is over for trading and few will be sad to see it go. Anyhow here goes and keep in mind that tomorrow could be an ugly open (or not):


SPX -6.1%

DJIA -4.6%

NAZ-9.9%

NDX-11.7%

RUT-6.9%

MID-6.2%

Small Value- 3.2%
Small Growth-7%
Large Value -4.2%
Large Growth-9.5%


VIX+16.4%

XLE-12.3%
OIH-16.7%
VLO -15.7%
XTO +1.1%

XBD +.5%
IAI-5.1%
GS -7.2%
CME -10%
ICE -27.7%
MER +5%

BKX+6.5%
C-4.3%
BAC+7%

MO FLAT
GE -4.6%
PFE +2.8%

LVS-14.8%
MGM-13.4%
WYNN+2.5%

RLX +3.3%
HGX +6.5%
XAL +5.6%
TRAN+4%
DRG -6.5%

EEM -8.9%
EFA -7.8%
EWA -6.7%
EWH -8.1%
EWZ-5.2%
FXI -15.4%
EEB -10.7%

THE CLOSE

Quite a day as the DJIA closes up 208 and the SPX 23 after being higher before more MBI FGIC XL downgrade rumors/actions. And in the aftermarket- the stock that can't be mentioned - well GOOG- is off about $30 as I type on some dissappointing earnings numbers.

Strong sectors- homies, retail, gaming, industrials, banks, airlines, brokers and trannies, while oils, metals, semis and drugs lagged.

Key stocks- 35 /40 higher- GREEN- MA TIF BIDU UA BAC ISRG WYNN POT CME LVS- RED- GOOG NVDA BG RIMM KLAC MER MO;

NYSE- 1,300 net winners;
NAZ- 750 net winners;
NDX-70 WINNERS;
OEX-75 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 67 WINNERS;

VIX- down 5% and about 7% under the 10 SMA;

Up vol 6x Down;

TRIN- .64

Today's SPX high- yes 1,385 again and pretty clear where resistance is for now. RSI (2) levels also showing the markets a little extended in the short term (most major indexes near 90).

One oddity on the screen today- the lack of MO in GS. While the DJIA was +250, GS was barely up more than $2.5 anytime during the day. Not sure why as all the banks did great and the brokers were also good with the exception of LM.

Stay tuned tomorrow as we could actually get SP downgrades on MBI and ABK and that will be interesting.

NOON LOOK

Markets reversed course and have ripped higher to the 1,375 level on the SPX but have since come in a bit and it will be interesting to see if the dippers buy this little sell off.

Best sectors- homies, retail, banks, trannies, airlines, gaming, brokers and utils while metals, oil service, semis and tech lag.

Key stocks- 30 /40 GREEN- MA UA TIF WYNN LVS BAC ISRG MCD CME CAT - LOSERS- NVDA KLAC XOM RIMM VMW ICE BG MSFT SMH MO GOOG;

NYSE- 800 net winners;

NAZ- 450 net winners;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX- 70 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 50 WINNERS;

VIX- 26.4 and lower by 4.4% - 6.5% under the 10 SMA;

Up Volume about 2X Down Volume;

TRIN.8;

All the banks and brokers I follow are higher while tech continues to act eh;

My guess is SPX may drift around this 1,365 level for awhile perhaps building a base before we can move back up to yesterday's highs.

THE OPEN

Markets open lower with the DJIA -82, NAZ-13 and SPX -9 as I type. RUT/MID actually doing better than bigger cousins.

Strong sectors- homies, airlines, internets, retail and staples- laggards- oil service, insurance, semis, telecom and metals.

Key stocks mainly lower- winners- MA UA CELG MAC DECK MCD LVS CAT ISRG- LOSERS- ICE NVDA MER MS KLAC BG RIMM C XOM NYX;

NYSE- 750 net losers;

NAZ- 570 net losers;

OEX-15 WINNERS;

NDX-20 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 20 WINNERS;

VIX- FLAT;

Up volume- half of Down volume;

Markets are trying to make a comeback as they were hammered in the final hour yesterday and in the overnight futures session. Careful as ramps higher are likely to be sold.

THE PHENOM

Hard to believe how one guy could be so responsible for so much lost market value so quickly. Cramer comes on CNBC at about 2:50 EST and top ticks (CLICK ON CHART) the market by announcing he is bullish on the markets and would buy financials.

It was a few moments later that the markets lost about 235 DJIA points and about 3.4% in the financials. Not sure when he became the trading phenom but it is what it is.

Anyhow, markets heading lower in the after market and tomorrow - no clue again. Funny how this market turned right at resistance of 1,385 and not how GS turned tail right at the 50% retracement of 205.

Also impacting the markets, bond insurer downgrades - Bill Ackman and sell the rallies mentality.

THE CUT

The FED cuts 50 and the markets soar on the news and then of course lose about half as I type. No clue what to expect the rest of the day and I won't try to play it.

Lots of folks did expect the market to sell off regardless of whether it was 50 or 25 and I suspected that was a fade.

Banks moving up on this rate cut while brokers more mixed with GS LEH LM MS higher while BSC MER lower.

Market internals slightly better than flat not instilling great confidence. Tomorrow another day.

NOON NOWHERE

Markets a bit lower at the Noon hour with the DJIA -49, NAZ -8 and SPX -5. Small and Mids a hair worse than the big cap indexes.

White House says US GDP report does not change outlook and like GM they also don't expect a recession. Although I can't tell you which administration ever said "yes a bad recession is right in front of us." Especially for a guy who is looking hard for a legacy.

Sectors working include airlines, trannies, utils, semis and defense while oils, homies, drugs internets and banks are lagging.

Key stocks- 15 out of 40 GREEN- UA VMW RIMM BG GE INTC PG MCD GS AAPL XOM;

Market internals- a hair to the red side with the IBD 100 getting hit the worst;

Down volume not quite 2X Up volume;

VIX -higher by 2%;

TRIN- 1.19;

I am doing little in front of the fed announcement and I suspect we get either 25 or 50 bps cut!!!

THE OPEN

Markets open lower on the heels of a worst then expected GDP number and a better than expected number from ADP on jobs. The DJIA is -55, NAZ -9 and SPX -7 as I type.

Strongest sectors- brokers and airlines while homies, internets, emerging markets and drugs lag.

Key stocks - 6 winners out of 40- GREEN- UA MCD CELG PG BIDU GOOG- losers- ISRG TIF DECK ICE POT MER LVS MTW WYNN NYX;

NYSE- 850 net losers;

NAZ- 450 net losers;

IBD 100- 12 WINNERS

OEX-25 WINNERS;

NDX-35 WINNERS;

WINNERS- FLEX CHRW ERTS ESRX FMCN DIS MCD GD XRX CSC FMCN RRC SXE MICC HUM NOK BUCY NDAQ BRK.A;

VIX- near the flat line 27.65;

Down Vol 3X Up Vol;

TRIN- 1.45;

Not sure what is coming out of brokers to put em in the GREEN as GS LEH LM MER MS BSC are all red- ETFC up 9% or 39 cents;

The NDX is actually the best performing index as I type and if it can hold up it may be able to drag the other indexes higher- especially if BIG BEN gives up the 50 bps all the traders want and need for their trading addiction.

THE CLOSE

Another day and another day filled with dip buying opportunities for the quick day trader. The DJIA close up 95 and the SPX +8- NAZ +8.

Strongest sectors- telecom, homies, banks, airlines, insurance and brokers while oil service, internets, reits, emerging markets and metals lagged.

Key stocks- leaders- LVS UA GRMN NVDA NYX BAC MO MGM WYNN MA - laggards- VMW ISRG BIDU AMZN BG KLAC KO CME GOOG PG MCD;

NYSE- 1,050 net winners;

NAZ-440 net winners;

NDX-65 WINNERS;

OEX-60 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 45 WINNERS;

VIX- FLAT;

Up volume about 2X Down volume and light overall at 1.5B;- last week 2.5B was typical;

TRIN .99;

Hopefully some made some buy the dip coins as the market internals gave the game away by being strong from the get go.

Tomorrow is a day when I will do little if any trading but lots of watching. Many are expecting the sell the news rally especially in light of the recent market move higher. Solid resistance about 25 SPX points higher near the 1,385 levels. And how about that Cramer throwing in the towel on tech. Who would have thought he would love GOOG at 700, AAPL at 200 and BIDU at /near 400 and sell em down here at 550/130/270 respectively. Got to love Kramer.

AFTERNOON LOOK

BREAKING NEWS- the good folks at GM see no recession in the U.S. Who could argue with their business vision?

Anyhow, markets continue to meander with the SPX/DJIA higher and the NAZ/RUT lower.

Strong sectors- airlines, telecom, homies, insurance, trannies and banks while internets, oils, emerging markets and reits lag.

Key stocks - generally lower - leaders- UA NVDA NYX GRMN LVS BAC MO CAT ICE MGM- laggards- VMW ISRG BIDU AMZN KLAC GOOG KO CME MA BG MS RIMM POT;

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 160 net winners;

OEX- 50 WINNERS;

NDX- 55 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 33 WINNERS;

IBD 20- 8 WINNERS- BIIB BLK BBY CSX GENZ HES NTRS CB;

VIX- near the unchanged mark;

TRIN- 1.19

Up to Down volume nearing the equal line;

Big cap indexes hanging in higher while tech brings down the NAZ/NDX- Tough to game tomorrow as most seem to think the markets get sold no matter if its 25 or 50. Not making a bet on it now as my trading positions will be flattened out by the time 2:15 tomorrow appears.

Resistance on the SPX looks to be near 1,385 with support at 1,310 levels.

MORNING MARKETS

Markets trade all over the board with the DJIA/SPX higher and NAZ/RUT lower as I type.

Strongest sectors- telecom, airlines, materials, ags, trannies and oils while internets, emerging markets, reits, semis and tech lag.

Key stocks- mixed- DECK AAPL POT CAT GRMN XOM RIMM C CELG MO higher and VMW ISRG BIDU AMZN KLAC CME GOOG MGM MCD MER KO lower;

NYSE- 540 net winners;

NAZ- FLAT;

OEX-65 WINNERS;

NDX-60 WINNERS;

Up volume almost Double Down volume;

TRIN- .9

VIX- 26.9 lower by 3% and heading under the 10 SMA;

Quick hits- Big Cap tech lagging - GOOG BIDU VMW MSFT EBAY HHH INTC etc- brokers mixed; banks generally strong despite rumors of a large JPM writeoff;

Looks like another buy the dip day but DJIA/SPX; refiners such as VLO FTO may also be good day trading vehicles (dips) as the VLO earnings were outstanding;

ODDS AND ENDS

IBD 20 list out in the latest issue and one thing is for sure, this list is volatile. The current ranking:

ABT ABX AFL BAX BBY BIIB BLK BTU CB CME CSX GENZ HES HON MA NEM NTRS ORCL QCOM STT;

Durable goods orders in and a shocker +5.2 vs. 1.6 consensus;

Gapping up- LKX QMAR VLO NOVL ARG STLY IPAR UNM POT DOW ABK;

Gapping down- VMW (crushed) ZRAN ICUI SEPR EMC SNDK AAI DIS CLMS JDAS AXP CNW PCL MTH ATHR;

Finally, this from Dr. Brett on extreme sentiment;

And looks like the end of the road for America's Mayor as intrade gives him about a 2% shot at winning while McCain is at 55% and Mitt at 46%.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed at/near the highs with the DJIA +177, NAZ +24 and SPX +23 and a hair over the 1,350 level. John Bollinger seemed longer term bullish and he is one of the best at the game. We will see.

Strongest sectors- homies, brokers, banks, airlines, real estate and insurance while internets and MOO finished lower.

Key stocks - 27 out of 40 higher led by WYNN POT CELG MER BAC TIF BG C GRMN CAT and ISRG- laggards- MCD ICE MA AMZN BIDU VMW GOOG DECK NVDA CME MSFT and AAPL;

NYSE- 1760 net winners;

NAZ- 900 net winners;

NDX-70WINNERS;

OEX-88 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 78 WINNERS;

VIX- down about 5% and trading near the 10 SMA;

Up volume 7X Down volume;

TRIN- .52;

New Highs- 31 on NYSE+NAZ

New Lows- 114 on NYSE+NAZ

It was a buy the dip day despite the crummy performance from big cap tech (HHH AAPL GOOG CSCO MSFT all lower) as the DJIA/SPX /RUT /MID were the market leaders with NAZ/NDX laggging. Value was also way better than growth despite what one may hear on the tube.

Not really sure what tomorrow may bring although selling here by short term traders is probably the way as the trend is down until it isn't and we are still way below the important moving averages. Also RSI (2) levels a bit extended again:

SPX 70

DJIA 70

RUT 84

MID 84

QQQQ 50

COMPQ 64

AFTERNOON LOOK

Markets are higher this afternoon as the bad news was generally shaken off by traders/investors and the DJIA is now +100, NAZ+15 and SPX +13. RUT/MID better than the big caps up 1%+.

Strongest sectors- real estate, homies, banks, oils, airlines and small cap value while internets, ags and trannies lag.

Key stocks- 27 out of 40 higher led by WYNN CELG POT GRMN BAC BG ISRG CAT TIF MER laggards- MCD ICE MA DECK AMZN CME UA MSFT NVDA GOOG VMW BIDU PG;

NYSE - 1,350 net winners;

NAZ- 720 net winners;

NDX-75 GREEN;

OEX-88 GREEN;

IBD 100-70 WINNERS;

VIX- down about 3% and 4% above the 10 SMA;

Up vol- about 3X Down volume;

TRIN- .77

Bought some QLD earlier today for a day trade and have since sold half as the buy the dip day that I envisioned earlier came to fruition.

The 1,350 level on the SPX may see some selling as for now rips are probably going to be sold in the short term.

THE OPEN

Markets open lower with the DJIA down 80, NAZ -17 and SPX -7 as I type. Small caps doing worst and small cap growth the worst of all;

New home sales the culprit as they stink again.

Strongest sectors- airlines, utils, biotech, drugs, staples and industrials - lagging- ags, homies, chinga, telecom, emerging markets, internets, brokers and banks.

Key stocks- 10 out of 40 green led by CME CELG BG NYX GE WYNN GS IBB BAC CAT lower are MCD DECK BIDU ICE MA NVDA MGM AMZN GOOG LVS MER MS;

NYSE- 840 net losers;

NAZ- 700 net losers;

NDX- 40 WINNERS;

OEX-33 WINNERS;

Up volume- 72K

Down volume- 148K

TRIN- 1.14

Internals not quite as bad as the indexes and I suspect we may see a turn around higher before the day is over. No guarantee but just the way I am going to play.