6.26.2008

LATE AFTERNOON TRADE


Short covering probably into the close as down 300 on the dopey DJIA was enough for me to cover- and down 70 on the NAZ/NDX - also good enough for the day.


How about Sue Herera on CNBC looking like she was going to cry as she didn't like that GS downgrade GM/C way too late in her opinion despite the 10%/5% price reduction just today.


And she also wanted the Fed to raise rates so the dollar wouldn't be clobbered- Sue, breaking news- they aren't going to raise rates while the economy is poor and while a big election looms.


More breaking news- the VIX at/near 23.75- and only 12/15 points off the recent highs - could be a real ugly tell of lower lows in the near future.


RSI (2) levels near the close:


SPX 10

NAZ 18

RUT 18

MID 12

XLE 20

DIG 23

DJIA 1

EFA 0


And how about Bob Pisani nailing the bottom in financials yet again (a new bottom most days) and the top in oil (new all time high today).

Anyhow, closing out all short positions and waiting for what tomorrow will bring. Maybe a long in DIG XLE OIH.

8.12.2008

GOLDIE


GS making news today as top sell siders decide the stocks is over priced and estimates need to come down. And of course CNBC geniuses telling us that it is no longer teflon since it is way down today- $10+


Breaking news to CNBC - GS was much lower in January and at the July 15 so called financial bottom- $140 area in January and $152 or so in July- so $168 today not so horrible.


Support probably at near $165 - the FIB 61.8 retracement- and don't be surprised if tomorrow someone tells us how over done today is.


10.06.2006

BREAKING NEWS


Shockingly the markets have opened red on the heels of the lousy jobs numbers which showed an increase of about 25k jobs once one eliminates the birth/death adjustment for new businesses. So maybe the soft/hard landing debate is still up for grabs.

Anyhow, my bet is that this dip gets bought before long as many under invested bulls who have been screaming for a pullback finally have one.

Market internals are very bearish with 1,500 more losers than winners on the NYSE and 1,100 more losers than winners on the NAZ.

My screens are all red except for VIX VXO MO KLAC ORCL GOOG CSCO YHOO and MMM. Sectors acting the worst include metals, oils, retail, semis, trannies, brokers and small caps.

VSL, a favored Indian stock of the good folks at GTS, is ripping higher on news it will probably be unloading a chunk of highly valued real estate.

10.18.2006

OPENING UP

Markets open higher with the all important DJIA crossing the 12,000 line for the first time.

Mark and his compadres have the odd view of wondering where the individual investor has been and if they will buy in to the markets now. Well breaking news for the CNBC shrewdies, where exactly do they think employee 401k's are invested? I can assure them they are not invested in soybeans or wheat futures. And for those looking for the big cap leadership, I dare you to check the price of the IWM, yes, it is outperforming again up about 1%.

No mention of what is underperforming and yes it is internets and semis. Not exactly what one wants to see in a record breaking market.

9.19.2008

THE CLOSE


Breaking news from the bubbleheads at CNBC - the DJIA closed flat on the week after big selloffs. Well check the RUT/IWM -its down about 2% on the year while the DJIA/SPX are both down in excess of 14%- but just keep buying those big caps- that is the place to invest.


Anyhow, the big winners today were brokers, emerging markets, banks and oils- oh and crude was up about $7 but no word of that either from taut TV. Lagging sectors included drugs, retail, defense, semis, trannies and real estate.- Also note the action in WINTEL- both lower on the day.


VIX - lower by 4.5% at 31.6;


Up volume about 8X the down;


NYSE/NAZ - about 4,000 more winners than losers;


SKF is trading again and if you want to short financials its a pretty pretty good way- closing near $100 after hitting about $156 yesterday- good volatility;


One untold story- the UYG- ultra long financials- opened over $24 and closed near $22 and oil - so it will be very interesting to see the Monday trade - I suspect the selling may begin early.


5.17.2009

NIGHT MOVES


Futures are trading down a bit but above fair value after the move up in futures after the cash close on Friday- that's as of 7:30 PM eastern time.


Not all that much excitement in Barron's this weekend with the big headline being that US issues paper may be over valued and maybe the Chines will not continue to buy our paper- well breaking news - If you believe - and I do - one can buy the TBT and go short the US 20 year paper 2x.

RSI (2) levels getting a little oversold with the major indexes at/near 25- with the XLE/DIG near 11- so a bounce in the energy sector may preclude a bounce in the overall markets.

Gold trading up over $930 while the dollar is also moving up - crude higher with gold while natty gas is getting hit and ags are down across the board.

Barry has been playing up this chart and it is pretty interesting;


Wall street Cheat sheet with a the thrill of a tril;


Lots of folks bullish on ags;


Yanks with the Big K so far;


The Quant with the bad Breadth;






2.26.2008

THE OPEN


Markets are trading lower as I type with the DJIA down 34, NAZ -10 and SPX -5. RUT/Small cap value out performing and in the black. Question number 1- lets see if 1,360 can hold on SPX.


Strongest sectors- homies, semis, retail, biotech and metals while internets, telecom, MOO, brokers and real estate lag.


Key stocks generally in the red with VMW MGM KLAC INTC TIF PG SMH MCD IBB green and GOOG GRMN BIDU AMZN ICE AAPL CME MER RIMM GS- all red;


WINNERS- HOLX APOL SBUX SHLD PETM MNST CCU TGT TXN INTC AMGN EMC WMT JST ANSS FCSX MTL VIVO HOS SLT;


LOSERS- DRYS PDA ENS KWK BABY SID TITN FWLT GOOG SNDK GRMN BIDU DISH AMZN PAYX AAPL MER COF EP ATI GM AA;


NYSE- 60 net losers;

NAZ- 180 net winners;

NDX- 40 GREEN;

OEX-25 GREEN;

IBD- 40 GREEN;


VIX- FLAT;

TRIN- 1.33

Down volume a bit more than Up volume;


Finally some talk on bubblevision about the recent lousy performance of AAPL and GOOG- and yes very ugly as GOOG is down $35 and trading near $450 and down 34.5% on the year;


Also talking about whether the markets can rally with out the financials. Well breaking news for CNBC- the NAZ/NDX are down about 14% on the year while the XLF is down about 6%. My point, look for the NAZ/NDX to start to out perform on the reversion to the mean trade.

10.14.2008

THE CLOSE


Markets came back into the the last hour of the day and it seemed like there was a bid under the market depsite the volatility.


Strong sectors inlcuded financials, shipping and metals while semis, real estate, gaming and tech lagged.


NYSE- 265 net green;

NAZ- 700 net red;

NDX- 9 GREEN;

OEX- 40 GREEN;


VIX-unchanged near 55.5;


OK - not much else to say except its volatile and fading the trend seems to be the way for now- yeah easy-
And any shot we saw some of this action last week?


Ooops Breaking News- another economic recovery plan from John McCain.


5.09.2009

THE BARRONS WEEKEND


Quickly- Barrons articles bullish on CPB BAC HES but the most interesting articles cover other topics;


Mike Santoli on everyone craving a correction and even sited the blogger sentiment poll:


The blogger sentiment poll on Birinyi Associates' Ticker Sense blog last week showed 50% bears to 33% bulls -- almost as many bears as at the early-March lows. In late January, just as the market was ready to roll over hard, 65% of the bloggers were bullish.


Note that the poll keeps losing participants and it is kind of useless now as there are too few participants.


Strategist Jason Trennert of Strategas Partners sums up a common stance: "Simple valuation analysis leads us to be skeptical about the potential of the market to rally from these levels. The problem, it seems, after spending the last week on the road and looking at recent short-interest data, is that we have a lot of company -- very few of our clients believe the rally is real."


Trennert was always a bull until the market crashed and he has been bearish since.


John Roque, the technical strategist at Natixis Bleichroeder who has been in synch with the rally and the preceding collapse, detects an upside "breakout" on the chart of investor frustration, because they have doubted the rally and owned too little of the stuff that has run the most.


He has been excellent- period.


A fine article about the auditors- hate to say it but this fish in a CPA and did work at one of the firms mentioned in the article-


In investor lawsuits filed in recent months, BDO Seidman and McGladrey & Pullen stand accused of shoddy audits and signing off on the books of fraud-ridden businesses and investment funds. The cases, together with a string of earlier ones involving the two firms, raise unsettling questions about the level of confidence investors can put in financial audits.


The two audit firms say they stand by their work, and there is, in fact, some murkiness about auditors' responsibilities for detecting fraud. The firms are supposed to "obtain reasonable assurance about whether the financial statements are free from material misstatement, including misstatements caused by fraud," according to the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the federal entity that supervises auditors of public companies. The gray area centers on what is reasonable, an issue that often plays out in the courts because accounting firms can be one of the only solvent players left when a company goes down.


OK -breaking news- accountants like most people depend on a continuing stream of income from clients who pay lots of money to have their books audited- Yes - kind of a conflict of interest to pay some one to tell the world that your books are clean- so of course the accountants bend over backward to find reasons to justify what is in your financial statements- if firm X won't give you a clean opinion - generally firm Y will.


Auditors are supposed to have professional skepticism and a stream of income - and when the two meet which one do you think wins- and that is why they have liability insurance.


And Rosie back in Abelson's column - after he just wrote his last piece for BAC- as mentioned he is skeptical of the green shoots:


Looking ahead, David scoffs at the idea that the "jobs data are about to get better because the markets have enjoyed a nice two-month rally." Among the reasons he's skeptical: the still record-low workweek, at 33.2 hours; the 66,000 downward revision to the back data (which, he avers, tends to feed on itself); the 63,000 slide in temp-agency employment; and the high levels of both initial and continuing jobless claims.


All of which, he believes, foreshadow a further 550,000 payroll plunge when the May data roll out early next month.


To David, as to us, the present buoyant mood on the Street is obviously more the result of rose-colored glasses than of green shoots


1.29.2008

AFTERNOON LOOK


BREAKING NEWS- the good folks at GM see no recession in the U.S. Who could argue with their business vision?


Anyhow, markets continue to meander with the SPX/DJIA higher and the NAZ/RUT lower.


Strong sectors- airlines, telecom, homies, insurance, trannies and banks while internets, oils, emerging markets and reits lag.


Key stocks - generally lower - leaders- UA NVDA NYX GRMN LVS BAC MO CAT ICE MGM- laggards- VMW ISRG BIDU AMZN KLAC GOOG KO CME MA BG MS RIMM POT;


NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 160 net winners;

OEX- 50 WINNERS;

NDX- 55 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 33 WINNERS;

IBD 20- 8 WINNERS- BIIB BLK BBY CSX GENZ HES NTRS CB;


VIX- near the unchanged mark;


TRIN- 1.19


Up to Down volume nearing the equal line;


Big cap indexes hanging in higher while tech brings down the NAZ/NDX- Tough to game tomorrow as most seem to think the markets get sold no matter if its 25 or 50. Not making a bet on it now as my trading positions will be flattened out by the time 2:15 tomorrow appears.


Resistance on the SPX looks to be near 1,385 with support at 1,310 levels.

11.29.2007

THE OPEN


Markets are trading slightly lower on the heels of the biggest 2 day rally in quite some time, so over bought is probably the short term theme. DJIA -67, NAZ -13 and SPX -10.


Sector strength found in oils internets and drugs while banks, financials, metals, brokers and airlines are lagging.


Key stocks - generally lower with BIDU VMW NVDA ISRG and MO higher while BG MER UA TIF NYX POT MS GS bring up the rear.


NYSE internals- 1,000 net losers;

NAZ internals -500 net losers;

NAZ -30 WINNERS;

OEX 15 WINNERS;

IBD 100-40 WINNERS;


Best Performers- BIDZ ATW STP EDU GSOL PDCO IACI BIIB LVLT NVDA MICC WMB EMC HAL GM MO T XOM GOOG SLB CVX CCU;


Worst- LEH MER COF RF HIG AXP AIG ENS SNDA VIP GLDN SNHY MBT TKC SHLD AMLN UAUA RYAAY CTSH LOGI PCAR PETM;


VIX flattish and way under the 10 day SMA;


And some breaking news, the DJIA is back under the 200 day SMA- so maybe a little shake out here and I am looking to add to longs if/when the SPX gets to the 1,450 level.


Didn't realize how good that Oil call was yesterday till I saw crude up $4 earlier this AM.

5.01.2007

CLOSING NUMBERS


Markets closed higher with the big winner again being the DJIA which was up about 70 while the RUT/MID groups lagged.
The DJIA is a hair off the all time record while the MID/RUT are about 2% off and the SPX about 1% lower.


Strong sectors included biotechs, wintel, utilities, drugs, semis, airlines, homies, oils, tech, retail, big caps and large cap value. Leading lower - silvers, real estate, metals, internets and exchanges.


Winners included MA C DJ DNA GILD and INFY while GS LEH LM CME NYX ICE BOT BAM FLA PG BIDU GOOG and AAPL were lower.


Interesting how the banks/tech was strong, brokers were mixed oils strong and the SPX/OEX was barely up 1/4%.


Market internals were very flat on the NAZ/NYSE while the OEX climbed to 7/3 green to red and the NDX about 65/35.


The DJIA had great internals with 26 components higher while the SPX was 3/2 up to down.


Volatility indexes gave a buy signal this morning when the market were flatted and those who dipped into the DIA/YM made some money. I suspect the rally isn't done so I am holding my longs for now. Remember, bottom line, its a bull market and their is a demand for equities.


And late breaking news, a slight majority of the Bancroft family is apparently opposing the NWS bid - any chance they want a higher price (lol). Not sure how GE will let Rupert get DJ if they want to continue with a "top flight" CNBC business network. Don't be surprised if they come in and the price eventually goes north of 70. Remember at $60 the price is $5Billion or chicken feed to NWS or GE.






11.24.2006

BREAKING NEWS


Futures are lower this morning on the heels of some overseas dollar problems and a selloff in Europe. Checking in on some technical analysis, the SPX is way overbought and the stochastics continue to pretzel twist above the 80 line and the 2 day RSI reading is at an extremely overbought (so what) 96. The VXO is way oversold and a full 8% below its very low 10 day SMA of 10.22. The 5 day RSI is also way oversold at a reading of 22. Of course these reading don't mean much as the markets seem to go straight up and those waiting for a correction have been disappointed for many months.

10.30.2006

SHOCKER


Markets have turned around and are higher as I type with the first tell of the turn coming in the SOX/SEMI sector which was green all morning and is now higher by 1.3%/1.5%.

The YM Pivot mentioned in the final post on Friday was hit a few moments ago at the 12,140 level and it should be interesting to see the market action for the balance of the day as the NAZ and Tech are the strongest indexes/sectors.

TICKs also have been bullish spending most of the morning well above the ZERO line with several readings above 800.

Market internals have flipped to neutral with about 250 more winners than losers.

Sector outperformers include airlines, internets, metals, semis, tech and retail. Lower are integrated oils, oil service, drugs and biotechs.

Winners in the DJIA include BA HPQ GM MSFT and INTC while losers include WMT VZ MRK CAT JNJ and XOM.

And some breaking news on the War in Iraq, Check this out from CNN:

Thousands of weapons the United States has provided Iraqi security forces cannot be accounted for, and spare parts and repair manuals are unavailable for many others, a new report to Congress says.

The report, prepared at the request of the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner, also found that major challenges remain that put at risk the Defense Department's goal of strengthening Iraqi security forces by transferring all logistics operations to the defense ministry by the end of 2007.

A spokesman for Warner said the senator read the report over the weekend in preparation for a meeting Tuesday with Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction.

Warner, who requested the report in May, "believes it is essential that Congress and the American people continue to be kept informed by the inspector general on the equipping and logistical capabilities of the Iraqi army and security forces, since these represent an important component of overall readiness," said Warner spokesman John Ullyot.
The inspector general's office released its report Sunday in a series of three audits finding that:
Nearly one of every 25 weapons the military bought for Iraqi security forces is missing. Many others cannot be repaired because parts or technical manuals are lacking.
"Significant challenges remain that put at risk" the U.S. military's goal of strengthening Iraqi security forces by transferring all logistics operations to the defense ministry by the end of 2007.


"The unstable security environment in Iraq touches every aspect" of the Provincial Reconstruction Team program, in which U.S. government experts help Iraqis develop regional governmental institutions.

The Pentagon cannot account for 14,030 weapons -- almost 4 percent of the semiautomatic pistols, assault rifles, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and other weapons it has been supplying to Iraq since the end of 2003.

The missing weapons will not be tracked easily: The Defense Department registered the serial numbers of only about 10,000 of the 370,251 weapons it provided -- less than 3 percent.
Missing from the Defense Department's inventory books were 13,180 semiautomatic pistols, 751 assault rifles and 99 machine guns.


The audit on logistics capabilities said there is a "significant risk" that the Iraqi interior ministry "will not be capable of assuming and sustaining logistics support for the Iraqi local and national police forces in the near term." That support includes equipment maintenance, transportation of people and gear and health resources for soldiers and police.

The audit on Provincial Reconstruction Teams said that, because of security issues, they "have varying degrees of ability to carry out their missions." Auditors reviewed nine teams and four satellite offices and found "4 were generally able, 4 were somewhat able, 3 were less able and 2 were generally unable" to accomplish their goals.

Rummy's answer over the weekend "Just Relax."

10.10.2006

AFTERNOON LOOK


Back to the turrets after taking care of the bird yesterday and this morning.

The screens are pretty dull as I type with Oils moving higher on the heels of crashing crude prices. I have no clue as to why and have pinged some pretty shrewd traders and the response is consistent to my question- No Idea?

Sectors acting well today include- OILS, trannies, brokers, banks, airlines and retail; losers include biotechs, internets, drugs, semis and tech.

Market internals are flat one reason for the about turn in the SPX is the monthly resistance level of 1,354. Markets hit that and seemed to have run into brick wall.

And breaking news- Torre is back as Yankee manager and I for one say bad move. He has now lost ten of his last twelve playoff games and in baseball and trading parlance, that is statistically significant.

10.06.2006

NOON LOOK


Markets are actually acting pretty well in light of the crummy jobs numbers. Market internals hint at afternoon weakness with about 2,300 more losers than winners but some of that can be attributed to fixed income funds which are getting clobbered on the spike in rates. The 10 year Bond is back to 4.68%, which is the highest in a while.

The banks and brokers however are hanging in well near the unchanged line as most of the major brokers are slightly red.

NAZ 100 has been the best acting major market index with a break to green a few already this morning.

KLAC WMT CSCO YHOO GOOG all green while the worst performing sectors include oils, metals, trannies and airlines.

Breaking news, Kirk's guy York resigns from GM and Kirk says he is no longer interested in purchasing more GM shares. Hmmm, just wondering if Kirk was playing everyone for a fool as he may now take his profits and run and leave all including our favorite carnival barker holding the bag. GM down $1.6 as I type.

10.04.2006

EARLY AFTERNOON CHECK


Big Ben out with breaking news that the country has a little problem known as social security. My suggestion, tell George W. Bush to cut taxes and we will grow our way out of it.

Anyhow, back to the markets, they continue higher with hardly a dip while the day trading "tells" remain bullish and shout that a few more decent rallies will ensue before the day is over.

Market internals very strong +1,900; banks straight up; brokers straight up; GS MER BAC TRANNIES, RETAIL, SMALL CAPS all strong.

Semis are higher but not nearly as green as the rest of the NAZ and any further deterioration in that group may be a preliminary signal to head for the exits.

5.29.2006

LONG WEEKEND LINKS


Some Chatter that a Correction was due.

Some Golden Rules of Investing from Barry R.

The Yield Curve Inverted again?

As a time saver, here are Adam's Links.

Newt on Bush 3? Again?

Here we go again, but probably worse.

MSFT for EBAY?

Banking on Biotech!!!

Just what we need, Leveraged ETF's!!!

Get your $2,000 Gold.

Problem with Debit Spreads.

More on the Silver ETF and the Gold ETF.

Check out the Whole Site.

The Trusting Society.

Some Good Stuff from Lazlo!!!

Update on the Housing Markets.

Good or Bad Timing?

Bottom in?

John Murphy on the Markets!!!

The Oil Bubble!!!

Betting on Banks.

Doesn't get any Easier than This.

Here is some Breaking News.

5.17.2006

MORNING BITS


Hard to believe that GOLD/SILVER/COPPER ripping higher this morning and equity futures right along with them. Note to CNBC, generally, when commodities go higher, the markets go higher (check the charts).

There is some great stuff by the bloggers this AM, and I suggest that everyone check out Ron Sen's take on the current state of the markets.

Trader Mike also has an interesting take on the current state of the tape.

Tom Herman, with some breaking news at the WSJ $ on fighting the IRS. Good stuff and yes if you go to the IRS appeals division, they will generally compromise on the tax owed. The reason being, (take it from a former IRS auditor), they want to close out the case and move on to the next one. Going to Tax Court is generally not what the IRS wants to do when they have differences with ordinary citizens, corporations a different story.

Do not forget that today is the OIL CROP report, so should be some interesting trading in the energy sector come 10:30 Eastern time.

5.02.2006

1:00 LOOK


Breaking News: Some shrewd traders on Street Insight are shorting into today's strength. My take- Shorting has been difficult anytime in the last 3 years. If someone/anyone has been successful predominantly shorting stocks in the past 3 years please email or post a comment. On the flip side, buying the dip has worked every time in past three years.

The DJIA is rippin higher by 70 points and the SPY is hanging in at resistance of 131.35. I have done very little except sell my BSC too early (always better than too late).

The market internals have improved a bit, but the NAZ numbers are still light at under 300 to the green and they don't give me much confidence of a big rip into the close. SMH has flipped to the green but also not with much conviction. The QQQQ has ripped higher by 15 cents so maybe the real action is trading the NAZ 100(sure).

The Volatility sisters are dribbling back down to yesterday's lows and are still a few percentage points above their 10 day SMA's.

Bottom line, I am not interested in shorting or buying at these levels so I am just doing a bit of research.