MY BARRON'S BOUNCE

Barrons bouncer Michael Santoli with a bullish column on BAM, one of this bloggers key holdings. BAM is an investment conglomerate with different holdings all over the world and is also an investment favorite of value investor Marty Whitman, whose Third Avenue group owns about 4.5% of the company ($20 Billion Mkt cap company).

And if you want to check some other "value picks" from Whitman, the Mutual Series group and David Winters of Wintergreen (formerly of the Mutual Series group) , one may want to take a shot at FCE.A CTO JOE DEL or TRC.

Winters fund, WGRNX, owns about 16% of CTO and was buying it as recently as last week according to MORN; and the highly respected Third Avenue Real Estate Fund, TAREX, owns about 9% while the Third Avenue group as a whole owns about 11%.

The Third Avenue group also owns about 21% of FCE-A, a real estate holding company run by the Ratners of Cleveland and New Jersey Nets fame. The Ratner group of officers and directors owns about 30% of the company according to the FCE-A website so their is not much float as the value funds and insiders hog the shares.

JOE, a real estate company based in Florida is also on the value list with Third Avenue Funds owning 19.5%; Hotchkis % Wiley about 10%; Marsico group with 10%+; Janus group with 7% and Neuberger Berman and BEN with 5% each. According to the YHOO finance holdings page, the big investment groups own a combined 70% of the stock, so again not much float.

The Third Avenue group also owns more than 25% of TRC, a real estate company with holdings of about 270,000 acres of land about 50 miles outside of Los Angelos.

T Rowe Price and the Third Avenue group each own about 9% of DEL, a timber/real estate company with holdings of about 450,000 acres of land in Arkansas and Louisiana.


Note that the holdings percentages listed above came from either YHOO Morningstar Mutual Funds site or other sources which I believe are "fairly" current.

CLOSING BELLS

Markets closed in the red but off the highs and above the lows. The midcaps were the best major index, just a hair below the all time high. SPX/OEX/DJIA all lower by about .3%.

Best sectors were metals, semis, utilities, internets and retail. Leading lower were big caps, brokers, reits, homies, banks, software and gaming.

Biggest gainers included LOW KLAC EXC TXU R CMVT HRB CHK JOYG CTXS CELG INTU ATI and HAL.

Biggest losers - LEH MER MS COF ORCL WB WFC MSFT BEAS PDCO WFMI and INFY as the Indian equities took it on the chin the whole week.

Market internals improved most of the day after hitting their lows in the morning trade. The NYSE had about 150 more losers than winners while the NAZ had about 400 net red. I suspect some fixed income equities skewed the NYSE number as the long bond rate traded down to 4.68% or 5 bps.

The NDX had a 40/60 winner loser ratio while the OEX had 30/70 and the SPX 200/300.

Volatility indexes, hardly overbought as most trade at/near their 10 day SMA.

The 2 day RSI's all over the board with DJIA at 7, SPX 13, QQQQ 72, MID 99, RUT 59, IAI 7 and MER 1.

quietly, VLO, a past and current favorite has moved up over the past week and is now + 15% on the year while ETF's XLE and OIH are flat.

Brokers were among the worst of the groups as "subprime issues" are getting mentioned in the space.

Sold some longs today and this week including SMH /IWM /DJIA Futures but I remain long the NAZ Futures among other assorted equities and the Do Not Short button is still firmly in place on the trading turret.

I am curious to see what trading will bring us Monday as I suspect a bounce and end of the month/beginning of the month money comes into play and Iran/Cheney etc. move to the back burner.

NOON MARKETS

Markets not acting well today on the heels of higher oil prices and hawkish comments about Iran and North Korea from Dick Cheney? Not sure the VEEP wields much power in Washington any more as he and his hand picked Secy of Defense did not exactly hit it out of the park in Iraq.

My question is if terror and global instability are the reasons for recent market behavior, why are the supposedly less stable small and midcaps outperforming the stocks with the biggest market caps. OEX/DJIA/SPX again acting the worst of the major indexes.

Strongest sectors today include metals, oils, semis, utilities, retail, internets and tech. Worst groups are airlines, brokers, reits, finanicials, emerging markets, homies, software and trannies.

Market internals have improved and now a red 350 on NYSE and red 450 on NAZ.

The NDX is 40/60 up to down; OEX 25/75 and SPX 175/325.

The only key stocks solidly in the green are ICE KLAC and BIDU. GOOG MA MER MS NYX IAI all taking pretty big hits.

Silver stocks on fire and my old favorite SSRI taking a back seat to another old favorite, PAAS. I have sold some PAAS as it is a bit overbought and will attempt to buy it back when the metals sell off (any shot).

OPENING BELL

Markets open lower with the big caps again showing the way down. The DJIA is lower by 30, NAZ -5 and SPX -3.

Lots of chatter about a correction as most CNBC guests talk of an upcoming 5/10% selloff enroute. Who knows, but my discipline requires that I sell down some longs (IWM); and yowza, check the 10 year Bond rate down to 4.69%, if that continues lower, the alligators will be back buying stocks and selling bonds.

Strongest sectors include semis, silver, metals, oils, utilities and retail. Most everything else is weak with software, biotechs, airlines, homies, brokers, reits and trannies acting worst.

Market internals also weak with a net 450 red on NYSE and 560 net red on NAZ.

Key stocks mainly lower with AAPL ICE KLAC BIDU solidly green. GS GOOG CME MER MS all lower but hardly in free fall.

Biggest gainers include KLAC GRMN ALTR BRCM LOW HRB EXC CHK and NVLS.

Biggest losers include CC LLL PDCO MTG CFC ORCL RSH BEAS INFY WFMI NIHD and VMED.

The SPX is 175/325; NDX 45 /55 and the Biggest of the big OEX at 24/76 up to down.

Volatility indexes slightly higher but hardly showing fear with the VIX/VXO combo at 10.45/10.54.

CLOSING BELL

Maria on CNBC puts up a chart of the DJIA and asks the guest how the situation in Iran and the fear of mideast terror has impacted the index today. Just wish he would have said "Maria, put up a chart of the QQQQ, IWM or the semiconductor stocks and you tell me how terror/Iran has impacted stocks today."

Sorry but it is just such nonsense from these "journalists" at CNBC day after day. And don't ask them how big caps are faring vs. the small/mid caps either as guest after guest insists its the big caps turn to shine.

Strongest sectors today included small caps, semis, gaming (despite the threats of terror), oils, oil service, metals, utilities, techs and small cap growth. The worst were DJIA stocks (6 up 24 down), homies, biotechs, airlines, reits, drugs, retail, large cap value and trannies.

Market internals improved to +150 on the NAZ and -300 on the NYSE while the major indexes showed 215/285 up to down on the SPX, 45/55 on the NDX and 35/65 on the OEX.

Key stocks, mostly lower with CME BOT MS MER MA the worst of the bunch; GOOG BIDU and AAPL - flat.

Fear, nonexistent as the VIX/VXO/VXD/RVX barely budged. Hey its a bull market.

I suspect the Semi stocks are a sell today as they rarely gather up steam for a sustainable rally; of late they have been the quintessential buy low sell high group and today is the sell high part of the equation underscored with a big Gap open.

TECHNICALS-XTO

I have been a fan of XTO for quite a while and it has made another new high today. The folks at Ticker Sense also note that it is one of the best performing SPX stock since the bear market started in March of 2000. I see no reason it will stop now.

NOON SWOON

Markets are lower on the heels of a) chatter about the terror alert being raised; b) Iran noncompliance with UN deadline; c) medium term overbought market conditions; d) all of the above.

I will go with d, as the markets need to consolidate and what better excuse than terror and Iran.

Despite the lower markets, the big cap DJIA is still underperforming as the mid caps are down the least of the major indexes.

Strongest sectors include gaming, semis, oils, metals, internets and tech. Down the most are biotech, homies, airlines, defense, retail, reits, drugs, trannies and financials.

Inquiring minds want to know why MGM WYNN and LVS would be solidly green on a terror alert?

Market internals are bearish with 600 more red than green on the NYSE and 500 net red on the NAZ.

SPX 185/315- NDX 35/65 and OEX 25/75.

Biggest winners among the big caps include NSM TXN HAL SLB WFMI LLTC MXIM and WYNN. Big losers include SNDK PDCO SIRI MDT AVP ATI TGT and IP.

The DJIA with 3 up and 27 down as HPQ GM MRK IBM GE and CAT show the way lower.

Key stocks are mainly lower with GOOG KLAC and SMH green. Biggest losers include ICE BOT and RIMM.

The options market is hardly smelling any fear as the VIX/VXO combo has risen about 2% on all the fear mentioned above.

Crude also trading above $61 and the OIH is up $2 and is nearing the $140 level. The OIH is another ETF whose volatility has been steadily declining and may be heading to a break out north on higher crude prices.

And just to show how tight the recent trading range has been, with the DJIA down 70 and about 130 points from an all time high, the 2 day RSI reading is at 10, a general rule buying area.

I beat the rush and bought some NAZ Futures as I suspect we won't get hit with a terror attack and crude will probably back off before the close.

MORNING CHECK

Markets started the morning higher but have since flipped to flat even on the heels of dramatic strength in the semi space due to numbers and commentary from ADI etc.

Generally I would scream to sell the semis as they rarely go up two days straight, but today just might be different.

Crude inventories come in with a stronger build than expected but is trading higher as are the stocks.

The first hour range is wider than we have seen in a while and just maybe some volatility is heading back to the major indexes.

Strongest sectors include the aforementioned semis, metals, internets, gaming, oil service, trannies, utilities and brokers; leading lower are biotechs, homies, reits, retail, drugs, finanicals and airlines.

Market internals started out strong but have since slipped to flat on both the NAZ and NYSE.

The SPX/OEX/NDX internals are all near flat or slightly below.

For now the bulls get the benefit of the doubt as anything else has been a losing strategy.

Don't know if the tech space will pull the rest of the markets up today or vice versa but it looks like it is shaping up as an interesting day on the street.

PRE OPEN LOOK

DJIA Futures about 18 points higher which would be almost half of yesterday's loss and put us within spitting distance of the "old" DJIA highs.

I may shift my buying focus to the NDX 100 as recenct laggards such as GOOG MSFT CSCO AMGN ORCL DELL INTC etc may be on some institutional "buy the dip" lists. And is that a cup and handle (almost) on the overbought NDX as it nears it's January high?


In the news:

UBS Upgrades WMFI to Buy from Neutral; PRU upgrades GG to Neutral from Overweight;

GOOG challenging MSFT by selling office suite online;

Off the radar is the 10 year bond trading back to the 4.724 area up 3 bps;

B of A cuts estimates on CME for q1 to $3.17 from $3.33 and cuts 2007 eps estimates to $14.75 from $15.35; they cite timing of expense savings with the BOT merger.

MS upgrades NSM to overweight from equal weight;

BRNC misses by 4 cents, revenue also short at $82.5 vs. $85.7 consensus;

Barron's reports EAC insider Brumley bought 40k shs for $24.7 from Feb 14 thru Feb 20.

SMH up almost 2% on the heels of ADI news;

Gapping up:

VLCK BRKR WFMI ADI LLTC NSM MXIM OSIP FBR OATS LEXG GMR and TXN.

Cramer bullish on UA CROX AUY MA RIG HAL NYX DVN MRVL BEAS.

Cramer bearish on GG HLX NRPH CHK.

WFMI buying OATS;

AAPL and CSCO agree to both use IPHONE name;

Wimbledon agrees to equal pay for women and men;

CLOSING DIP

Another day and the big caps outperform again- well not exactly, the RUT and the MID were both up about .2% while the DJIA/SPX/OEX complex were all down on the day. When does that mean reversion thing take hold?

Anyhow, the DJIA closed down 45, NAZ +5 and SPX -2.

Strongest sectors, metals, oils, biotechs, trannies, small cap growth, software, homies, defense and yikes- large cap growth. Weakest were drugs, utilities, reits, financials, semis and tech.

Market internals closed near the flat line on the NYSE and NAZ with a net red number of 350.

The NDX internals were also about flat while the OEX showed 35 up and 65 down; the SPX, about 2 up for every 3 down.

Biggest winners included MHS VMC BTU ATI CMVT AAPL FCX VLO JOYG WFMI and SLB. Biggest losers included HPQ MDT F AVP INTC GM SYMC JNPR DISH GENZ and SUNW.

Volatility indexes a bit lower with the VXO back under 10 and the VIX slightly over at 10.19.

The futures trade worked out pretty well as there were a few bursts near the 12,780 level on the DJIA YM Futures.

I suspect that it won't be long before we start talking about new highs on the DJIA index again for the upteenth time. Maybe even tomorrow as we are only about 65 points away.

One of the really good trades has been to buy the DJIA Futures on a dip and wait for another new high. Its worked like every time in the past several months and I suspect this dip will be no different.

MIDDAY VIBES

Markets continue to trade lower but a few stocks that have been off the radar have reappeared. Check GOOG up over $6 and AAPL up almost $3. Both have done very little of late and may be signalling something is about to change.

If you look closely at the morning action, note the NDX, Small caps are flattish and the small cap growth index is green.

Strongest sectors also include metals, oils, defense, trannies and gaming while utilities, semis, reits, drugs, brokers tech and retail are doing the worst.

Market internals have improved from the early lows and now about 600 net red on NYSE and 350 net red on NAZ.

The NDX is 36/64 green to red; OEX 30/70 and SPX about 180/320.

Key stocks higher include GOOG AAPL MA ICE NYX KLAC RIMM AMAT ADI.

Volatility indexes have also flatlined most of the day despite the early morning dip.

I have been buying futures for a daytrade and expect some bursts with high tick readings in the afternoon to sell into.

LOWER MARKETS

Markets open lower on the heels of worse than expected inflation news and some overbought markets.

Strongest sectors include metals and oils with just about all else lower. Worst groups are homies, reits, semis, utilities and tech.

Jim Awad on squawk with some terrific advice saying he sees the markets having trouble in 2008. Just wondering how I play that now> The continue great stuff from CNBC.

Market internals are very weak with a net 850 losers on the NYSE and net 600 red on the NAZ.

The internals on the major indexes are also weak with 33 up and 67 down on the NDX; 23/77 on the OEX and about 135 green 365 red on the SPX.

Key stocks are mainly in the red with AAPL ICE and NYX bucking the trend. Worst in the red are GS and BIDU.

The small and mid cap indexes are again outperforming the big caps and I suspect before the day is over the markets will be higher than they are now and I am looking for some entry points on the futures.

CLOSING BELL

Markets had another nice day assuming you had the right cap. Yes, small (+1%), and mid(+.7%) as the SPX/DJIA lagged again with gains near the .25% area.

Strongest sectors were gaming, small caps, retail, brokers, small cap value, retis, trannies, defense, biotech, airlines, internets and banks.- Leading lower were oils, metals and drugs.

Market internals closed strong with a net of 770 green on NYSE and 930 on the NAZ.

SPX had about 350 green; NDX with about 75 and OEX about 63.

Biggest gainers inlcuded GS ICE NYX MS RIMM BIDU WMT AVP TGT XMSR SIRI JOYG ERTS and VRTX. Besides the oils, big cap laggards included BUD GM UTX VZ AMGN LRCX HRB BIIB FCX and ODP.

Volatility indexes were all closed higher despite the generally upward move in stocks.

HPQ seems to have beat but the stock is trading down in after hours. Yeah, probably back to sell the earnings news. And the volume for whatever reason seems to be light with a number under 1.4B.

NOON CLUES

After opening lower, the markets, led by mid and small caps flipped the switch and entered into green territory about 90 minutes into the days trade.

Leading the way higher, airlines, retail, internets, gaming, small cap value, homies, brokers, banks, defense, techs and reits. Lower are oils, metals, drugs and biotechs.

Market internals have also flipped to green with about 500 net winners on the NYSE and 650 net green on the NAZ.

SPX with 310/190 up to down; NDX 75/25 and the usual OEX lagging with about 53 up to 47 down.

Key stocks finds most in the green with ICE RIMM BIDU NYX AAPL acting best. In the red are BOT CME and MA. The brokers and banks were flat to green from the get go and gave a pretty good signal that the markets may have a little upside jig before the day was done.

Leading the OEX lower are SLB MEDI COP CVX GM BMY AXP XOM MMM PFE and BHI.

I still have my DO NOT SHORT button firmly in place but selling some longs (trailing stops) at these levels is probably appropriate.

OPENING CHECK

Markets open lower as some traders appear to want to book some profits. The Semis/NAZ appear to be taking the brunt of the selling.

The DJIA is -37, NAZ-10 and SPX -4.

Strongest sectors include gaming ( good numbers from BYD), homies and trannies while just about all the others are in the red. Leading lower are oils, metals, semis, reits, biotech, airlines, internets and software.

Market internals are also weak with 950 net red on the NYSE and 800 net red on the NAZ.

The SPX has about 140 winners; the NDX with 30 and the OEX with about 20 green on the day.

Leading the DJIA are WMT HON C MRK and T while INTC HD AXP PG and XOM are leading the index lower.

Key stocks finds AAPL ICE NYX higher while GOOG MA BOT CME MER GS MS BIDU are all lower.

Biggest large cap winners include AES XMSR SIRI GRMN JOYG EXPD ERTS and BEAS while the losers are LRCX LINTA FLEX MEDI LOGI AMAT and MNST.

Volatility indexes are quickly ramping with VIX/VXO both up about 8%.

PRE OPEN HIGHLIGHTS

Checking the chart, the DJIA looks a bit stretched with its 2 day RSI reading over 90 and overbought stochastics. The 8/21 day SMA's also quite a bit below the current reading so a pullback (to be bought) would not be surprising. And of course the DJIA moved in a 28 point range on Friday, so maybe volatility will pick up a bit as it probably reverts.

In the News:

YHOO target raised to $38 from $32 at Oppenheimer; EXPD upgraded to overweight at HSBC and target raised to $51 from $48; SNDK upgraded to Buy and added to Conviction Buy list at GS; PVH target raised at B of A to $60 from $56; WMT beats by 3 cents and guides in line; VMC to acquire FRK in $4.6 B cash and stock;

Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment poll- 32.4% Bulls, 29.4% Bears and 38.2% Neutral- Me, Neutral after the nice runup.

Mentioned positively in Barron's were SNE ERTS BFB among others.

Gapping up- FRK XMSR NYNY SIRI CELL SMG WMT ERTS.

Gapping down- SNDK ENCY MOVI VSEA JBLU LRCX NVS.

Oh, SIRI and XMSR to merge (maybe).

FUN STUFF

Six weeks are gone in 2007 and some interesting trends have developed. Here goes:

Small Cap Growth +6.4%
Small Cap Value- FLAT

Large Cap Growth +2.6%
Large Cap Value +1.8%

MIDCAPS +6.8%
SPX +2.6%
DJIA+2.4%
RUT 2K +3.9%

WILSHIRE 5K+3.3%
OEX (SPX 100) +1.3%

NAZ COMP +3.4%

NDX 100 +3.7%

Pretty clear the largest of the large caps are underperforming yet again despite all the great value to be found according to most TV pundits. How about this for the biggest of the big:

XOM-1.6%

GE -3.5%

MSFT -3.8%

C-2.9%

BAC +1.2%

The EWA (Australian etf) looks pretty good as it just continues to go straight up; 24% last year and already over 6% this year.

And one of last year's laggards, HHH (internet holder etf), +10.4% after dropping 20.4% in 2006.

Transportation index +12% after underperforming last year.

IYR (reit etf), +10.9%; ITA (def/aero etf), +7.4% and XRT (retail etf), +7.1%.

Everyone's favorite tech stocks:

AAPL- FLAT

CSCO +.7%

GOOG +2%

HPQ +3.8%

MSFT -3.8%

XLK (large cap tech etf) +2.8%.

My favorite silver stocks:

SSRI +13.6%
PAAS +13.7%

If you stayed away from large caps, the year has probably started out pretty well.