Markets open higher led by the DJIA +65, NAZ +1 and SPX +4.
Strong sectors include oils, utils, internets, telecom and metals while junk bonds, real estate, semis and gaming lags.
NYSE- 725 net winners;
NAZ- 320 net winners;
NDX- 35 GREEN;
OEX- 75 GREEN;
VIX- down 1% at/near 43.6;
Up volume more than 2X the down;
Not much happening and it could be a big snoozefest- not seeing much to trade as tech and financials are flat while commodities move higher. Probably a good day to stay on the sidelines.
THE NOT MUCH
Markets are set to open higher on the heels of crummy news from the world of holiday sales- market probably smelled something before today!!!
Santelli predicting 2009 similar to 2008- with economy leveling off- ok sounds fair-
Gapping up - GM INTC PG AMZN F;
Gapping down- TWX CAT INFY SHLD GRMN UTX MRK JNJ;
Anyhow, some links to start:
Scott Rothbort on why he won't miss 2008;
Barron's on the best way to use the VIX- (sound familiar);
Best songs of 2008;
BESPOKE with the usual great stuff;
Roubini's BEST CALLS of 2008;
The TIMES selling the BOSOX;
Not going to do a lot of blogging the next few days but this morning futures turned up on the heels of the 8:30 AM economic news- and some other tidbits:
NYT reports revenue decreased about 14% from 12 months ago - advertising revenue down 21% while circ revenue increased 4.2%- not sure of what happens to the old grey lady in 2009 or the other newspapers - but I am sure that they haven't yet figured out a way to combat the bloggers or a way to get meaningful revenue from online content.
Mark Hulbert with some stocking stuffers;
Plax back in the news;
Roubini with more gloom;
They called it right;
PROSHARES and their cap gains distributions;
Markets closed lower and since we closed above SPX 910 on on December 16, its been straight down.
Markets are oversold in the short term and I don't expect much tomorrow and Friday- more choppy action.
Strong sectors today included metals, ags, junk bonds and energy while semis, financials, banks and homies lagged.
Market internals weren't horrible but did flip big from green to red early in the day.
VIX- flat at 45 and are folks noticing the markets and the VOL indexes are going south together?
WINNER- AA GE MRK MSFT WYNN AMZN HANS INFY BIDU STLD BMY MRK BK UNH PEP;
LOSERS- F BAC WY COV AVP SNDK LVLT DISH EBAY XLNX GM C IBM INTC KFT CAT;
Lots of folks blaming the southerly move in the markets to GM/F - well they got $14/15 B and GM is burning $3B a month - what is the expected out come - besides more and bigger government loans!!!
Markets bouncing around with a slight bias to the upside as the NAZ and tech are strong while small cap value lags.
Strongest sectors- metals, ags, gaming and internets while real estate, banks, trannies and retail lags.
NYSE- 830 net winners;
NAZ- 460 net winners;
NDX- 65 GREEN;
OEX- 65 GREEN;
VIX- lower by 5% at/near 42;
Up volume about 2x the down;
Gold down $5 at 844- crude a hair below 40 and the 10 year note yielding 2.15%;
Would look to buy dips here as it market feels like it has some upside potential before the day is done- still oversold with RSI (2) levels near 35 on major indexes.
THE PRE CLOSE
Markets are near the lows of the day with the RUT down about 5%+ while the NAZ is lower by almost 4%- DJIA/SPX acting a little better and only down 2 to 3 per cent.
The good news- we are now in over sold and buy territory for the major indexes- RSI (2) levels as follows:
Tomorrow may be turn around Tuesday and with over sold conditions - now may be a time to dip in the toe for a short term trade from the long side.
Markets are down in early afternoon trading with the NAZ/RUT acting the worst while the DJIA out performs.
Strong sectors- junk bonds, gold and utils while gaming, real estate and brokers bring up the rear.
NYSE- 1250 net losers;
NAZ- 1200 net losers;
NDX- 10 GREEN;
OEX - 25 GREEN;
VIX- flat near 43.65;
Down volume 4x the up;
The markets look to meander lower for the rest of the day and a close near the lows is the expectations- kind of surprising that the bulls can't come up with a better showing.
Markets are a bit lower in the early going with the NAZ and the RUT doing the worst while the DJIA hangs in the best.
Strong sectors - metals, telecom and drugs while shipping, retail, gaming and ags act the worst.
NYSE- 880 net losers;
NAZ- 700 net losers;
NDX- 10 GREEN;
VIX- down about 4% at 43;
Down volume more than double the up;
SPX trying to hold the 800 level while the RUT/NDX gets thumped in the first half hour of trading- As mentioned earlier, looking for a bust below 850 for a return trip to the downside or a move well over 900 for a significant move higher- neither probably going to happen this week.
Some interesting reading from Todd at Schaeffers;
And the Quant with more good stuff;
Checking the charts, markets have been a bit disappointing of late as the rally off the 740 bottom seems to be fizzling and weak closes have been the way during the last week.
The numbers- seems like we can't get above 910 on top and can't sink below 840 on the bottom- a break of either number probably leads to further movement in that direction.
The 61.8% retrace is the 905 area and the 840 area is the 38.2% retrace- using the 1005 area as the high and 740 as the low- so not sure how busy it will be this shortened week but just some areas to monitor.
The short term moving averages sitting in the middle waiting for something to happen- the SMA 50 at about 898, the 10 day starting to turn down at 891 and the 20 day moving up a bit at 873 while the 30 is steady at 871.
Bottom line, markets look like they want to move and a break of 905 is probably higher and a move below 840 probably says lower.