3.27.2009

THE CLOSE


Markets closed the day down after chopping around - but closing a bit off the worst levels of the day. SPX -17 at 816 and the NAZ -42.


Strongest sectors- bonds, telecom, ags, utils and retail while real estate, brokers and energy lagged.


NYSE- 1600 net losers;

NAZ- 1390 net losers;


VIX- up a whole 2% at 41.15;


TRIN- 2.03 light volume with down volume overwhelming the up;


Gold down $10 at $923 and crude at about $52;


Dumped some SKF into the close and will probably reload next week - who know where it opens Monday in light of the recent volatility and the underlying derivatives- its really just a day trading vehicle and the 3X ETF's are worse.


RSI (2) levels in low 40's for most major indexes so probably a bounce on Monday as the end of month markerupperrers have one last chance in March.


THE USUAL


Markets are back down at/near the lows of the day and if we have seen anything on a consistent basis its that weak days tend to close near the lows.


Strongest sectors- bonds, fins, shipping, telecom and retail while energy, metals and real estate lags.


NYSE- 1560 net losers;

NAZ- 1300 net losers;

NDX- 5 WINNERS;

OEX- 12 WINNERS;


VIX- stuck in neutral as I suspect put buyers are now using 2x/3x ETF's as protection;


TRIN- 1.74 and down volume 5X the up;


Gold down about $10 and crude down 4% at $52;


Looking for that lower close as the attempt at a rally was rejected near the SPX pivot point at the 826 level- financials out performing the broader index after role reversal yesterday-


RSI (2) levels at near 45/50 level and next week we may see them head down to single digit area.


Checking the sorter list - of the Dr. Brett's 40 telling stocks - 5 green with AMGN WFC COP KO BAC + and IBM SLB TWX WY C MO DOW leading to the downside.

THE DOWNER


Markets have opened lower and its as if yesterday didn't happen- just like I said - failure at the 825 area- a day late but not a dollar short. Anyhow SPX -15.5, NAZ -32 as both are down about 2%.


Strongest areas- junk bonds, biotech, drugs, ags and utils while real estate, shipping, energy and tech lags.


NYSE- 1700 net losers;

NAZ- 1225 net losers;

NDX - 7 GREEN;

OEX- 10 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 3% at 41.6 and it continues to be almost stationary regardless of the markets action;


TRIN- 1.92 with Down volume about 9x the up;


Gold - down $8 at $925;


Crude down $2.5 at about $52;


Ten year Note still hanging at about 2.7%;


Looks like a day that will be a slow grind lower - and the fish is short SRS SDS and SKF I guess the S trifecta from the short side- as I suspect the selling has just begun and we eventually retest the 812/810/790 area and find support again at the SMA 50.


Finally, sad to see the Dukies lose last night- but I expect Nova loses to eventual winner Pitt- although they have been struggling - but what a football team they could be.

PRE MARKET LOOK


Futures pointing to a lower open on the SPX this morning as it trades at about 7 points below fair value - but too quote some famous market watchers - "its off the worst levels."


Checking new and some links:


The Trader Mike take;


PIMCO says double the balance sheet;


Newt on the attack;


A levered play on the markets;


Approaching a top on this chart;


She is back;


The answer is no we haven't;


Well maybe;


The next Wall Street?;


The sort of rise in short interest;


And how many loved this result?


BRIC's all BLACK;


GONZO- the best at CNBC - good luck to Dylan;

3.26.2009

THE CLOSE


Good thing I didn't trade that short side which again lured some folks in as the markets closed at the highs and the SPX ending near 833.


Strong today- trannies, semis, defense, shipping and homies while energy, junk, metals and banks lagged.


NYSE- 1800 net green;

NAZ- 1750 net green;

NDX-95 GREEN;

OEX- 70 GREEN;


VIX - still above 40 and down 4.5% on the day;


TRIN- 1.44 with up volume about 3X the down- interesting the TRINQ at .24 with NAZ volume way better to the plus side;


RSI (2) at /near 85/90 on most major indexes - so expect a sell off and maybe tomorrow as fins lagged all day - perhaps signifying a topping area and perhaps signifying nothing.


Recent high of 875 on SPX could also be another target for the bulls - just hard to believe no one wants to take profits.

BUST THROUGH


Markets just blasted through SPX 830 and now the question is whether they stay there- No guesses now as one big wrong move was enough for one day.


Strong sectors- trannies, retail, semis and tech while banks, ags, telecom and fins lag.


NYSE- 1770 net green;

NAZ- 1460 net green;

NDX- 93 GREEN;

OEX- 80 GREEN;


VIX - down 4.5% at 40.3;


TRIN- 1.46 with up volume 2.5x the down;


Gold +$6;

Crude +2% at $53.8;


RSI (2) levels: -


SPX 83

NAZ 85

RUT 82

DJIA 87


The old resistance at SPX 825 becomes support and lets see what happens now - surprising how with the DJIA +160 and SPX +16.5 how could the XLF/BKX trade near the flat line - well it is and also note that GS MS BAC JPM all red or flat on the day. FWIW.

THE OPEN


Markets are off and running and after being up at the 825 the SPX has again sold down to the 815 area and we will see if we get an instant replay from yesterday.


Strong sectors- trannies, retail, energy, semis and shipping while real estate, telecom, banks and utils lag.


NYSE- 990 net green;

NAZ- 1,000 net green;

NDX- 85 GREEN;

OEX -60 GREEN;


VIX- stagnant at 41.5;


TRIN- 1.66 With up volume a hair better than down;


Gold up a bit and crude higher by 2%;


Everyone seems to know the areas to watch- higher than 825 and lower than 810 on the SPX - in between is just churn- and we will see - my guess is this fades.

PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE


A little morning amusement - an update to how the markets are performing under the new President:


SPX +1.1% since inauguration and -19% since election day;


NDX +8.8% since inauguration and -10% since election day;


RUT -1.6% since inauguration and -22% since election day;


DRG -6.5% since inauguration and -12% since election day;


George W. Bush from beginning to end (January 20, 2009):


SPX -40%;


NDX -57%;


DJIA -24.9%;


DRG -35%


RUT -11%;


Not sure many folks saw dubya as the President who would see the small caps outperform the drug stocks under his reign.


VERY EARLY LOOK


Futures markets are trading way higher after the big ramp into the close yesterday. ES futures higher by 9.5 indicating an SPX open near 820 or about 8 points below yesterdays highs and near the area where the big sell off began.


A few interesting articles this morning starting with some Turnaround Tim stuff:


Prime time Tim in MW;


Why the street loves TIM in Forbes;


PPT action yesterday?;


Colbert + Stewart = Cronkite?;


Could it really be him?;


Been there heard that before;


BESPOKE on the fiddy;


The value of the MBA;


The SUBSCRIPTION Stocktwits;


Why don't we get THIS news in the MSM?;


Gold is up $2 to about $936 and crude is higher by about a buck at $53.7.


If this economy is turning around and I have no clue if it is, and anyone who tells you they know is a liar, a good place to be will be commodities and can be played via DBA DBC or JJG. With a printing press, improving economies around the world - its hard to see how commodity prices won't be driven higher - much higher.



3.25.2009

LOVE THE GURUS


Finally went back in time to see how some of the great investors of the last several years fared last year and this year:


One of Cramer's favorites Ken Heebner- not so good-


CGMFX - his focus fund finished last year down 48% and is already down about 15% this year- Morningstar still optimistic with a rating of 4 stars.


CGMRX - his real estate fund finished last year down 47% and is already down 29% after less than 3 months this year. Morningstar rating still at 5 stars- yikes.


Marty Whitman- the manager of the Third Ave Value fund down about 46% last year and about 9% this year - so not much value added their as about in line with the SPX. Morningstar has downgraded him to 3 stars FWIW.


The Fairholme fund FAIRX - run by Bruce Berkowitz down about 30% last year which actually wasn't too horrible but off 14% this year - not so great and still with 5 morningstar stars.


MDISX - one of the mutual series funds - doing about as well as can be expected - down about 1% this year and down about 27% last year - 5 stars from MORN.


MQIFX - down only 25% last year and off about 3% this year - pretty pretty good relative performance- 5 MORN stars.


Another big vote getter looking for the President to fail.


Tom Herman said to be calling it quits.




US Equities overvalued?;


RSI (2) levels for tomorrow:


SPX 67

NAZ 62

NDX 59

RUT 65

DJIA 74


So the midday dip alleviated some of the over bought conditions- and lots of support underneath at/near 800 and the SMA 50 at 792.

WILD CLOSE


Markets ended the day higher although well off their worst levels as the SPX gained 7.6 and the NAZ +12. After the early push higher the SPX tagged its SMA 50 at/near the 792 level and screamed higher into the close.


Strong sectors- banks, metals, brokers, fins and homies while ags, energy, trannies and telecom lagged.


NYSE- 1200 net winners;

NAZ- 1100 net winners;

NDX- 66 GREEN;

OEX- 63 GREEN;


VIX - flat near 42.2;


TRIN- 1.16 with up volume about 2x the down;


Gold higher and crude lower;


SPX 805 level gave way in the morning after the ramp higher and the SMA 50 held at 792 and the market bounced from there - note both bulls and bears were scared as all the key numbers were attacked on both sides.


My suspicion is that the bulls one the day today but the joy in bullsville is about to come to an end as the next test lower may not be as successful.

LATE MORNING LOOK


Markets having trouble gaining any upside traction from the SPX 825 level and next up is around 815- and will that hold? So far so good but the more its tested the more likelihood it wont.


Market internals still very green with about 3500 net green on the NAZ/NYSE.


Sector strength sill found in fins, semis, metals, small caps and brokers despite the slight red in GS.


Links for the late morning:


The Fibs on gold per the Fib Queen;


The latest on the TOUR;


VIX +MORE on trading rules;


Nate on the pollsters;


TOO much RED?;


Rosie gonzo;


Upside on the ROSE;


Trading v Being Right;

THE OPEN


Market moving on up yet again with the SPX +17 at 823 and the NAZ +34 at 1550.


Strong sectors- homies, banks, fins, semis and retail while energy, telecom, drugs and utils lag.


NYSE- 2170 net winners;

NAZ- 1575 net winners;

NDX- 90+ GREEN;

OEX- 90+ GREEN;


VIX - lower by 4.5% at 41;


Almost all volume to the upside;


Gold flat and crude down $1.4 at $52.5;


The train has left the station for today and for those looking to buy - some spots may be 812/815 on the SPX or 1250 on the NDX.


Is it over- are we done with the economic problems - I doubt it but enjoy the upside ride for now-


3.24.2009

WHY VIX ?




So the usual is when equites rise the VIX falls and vice versa- but lately its equities rise and VIX goes sideways- wish I knew why - the suspicion from some folks is the double/triple ETF shorts- or blame it on the uptick rule - well not really.
BESPOKE with some nice numbers on how just how over bought we are/were;

ALL ABOUT THE 7'S


A very ugly final 60 minutes for equities as the SPX gave up about 16.5 points and the NAZ about 37 after both acted fairly well for most of the day in light of yesterday's monster rally.


Sectors- strongest retail, junk, defense and gaming while real estate, banks, small caps and brokers lagged.


NYSE- 1225 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

NDX- 15 GREEN;

OEX- 25 GREEN;


VIX- flat as the DJIA was down 115- hmmmm;


TRIN- 2.1 with down volume about 6x the up;


Overall volume a hair below yesterday's blow off top.


SPX stopped at the 806 level and all eyes will be on a 7 handle- my guess is a 7 handle gets lots of folks stopped out on the long side and may trigger a significant sell off - Tomorrow obviously becomes a key day.

NOON LOOK



Markets has the feel that it wants to go higher - all the dips getting bought - so lets see how this ends up today.





SPX -3 NAZ -16.5 and the RUT the worst of the bunch at a red 1.7%.





Sectors - strength - shipping, gaming, fins, homies and retails- weakness- metals, ags, internets and small caps.





NYSE- 620 net losers;


NAZ- 780 net losers;


NDX- 30 GREEN;


OEX- 45 GREEN;





VIX- down 3.5% at 41.75;





TRIN- 1.16- Down volume about 2x the up;

Looks like Lance will be back;



BIG on the worst is first;

An Embarrassment;

Trend days v Range days;

Looking to get long with an intermediate stop now at/near the 800 level- the dippers look like they want in or more and the fins act well let by GS and MS- for the mean time its a baby bull market.

THE OPEN


Markets open lower but are well off their worst levels as the SPX is -6 and the NAZ -13.


Strong sectors- retail, shipping, homies, defense and drugs while metals, energy, real estate and internets lag.


NYSE- 1,060 net losers;

NAZ- 600 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 25 green on each;


VIX- flattish at 42.8 and trading at/near the SMA 10;


TRIN- 1.19 with down volume 3x the up;


Gold - way down at $920.


Looks like choppy action so far which is fairly typical after a big trend day like yesterday- RSI (2) levels near 70 - so just watching for now as the key 804 level on the SPX was breached earlier but was again taken out to the upside. So for now a watching time for this fish.


BEFORE THE OPEN


Futures are trading lower on the heels of yesterday's massive move higher. ES futs -6, NQ -6.5 and YM -50.


I guess the thing to look for is how quickly the futs are bought and how soon they are faded from the initial dip buyers.


Gold down about $18 and not acting like a must have commodity while Crude down about $.42 cents. Bonds rates also moving higher reversing the trade from last Wednesday.


Some interesting links this AM:


Dr. Brett on the the Bull;


Bernstein from MER says SELL the FINS;


BIG with some numbers;


Jeff Saut on whats next;


Charts from Brian;


Reader's Indigestion;


Paying the TARP;


AIG and the IRS;


Lance looking OK;


Continental Drift;






















3.23.2009

THE CLOSE


The bulls did well with the SPX closing well above the important 805 level and the NAZ closing higher by 98 and well up on the year. I guess the Obama rally continues.


Strong sectors- banks, real estate, brokers and homies while metals, ags, drugs and utils lagged.


NYSE- 2600 net green;

NAZ- 1900 net green;

NDX/OEX- 95+ GREEN on each;


VIX- down only 6% on the monster rally;


Just about all volume to the upside;


Seems like the bulls are running wild for now but of course now we have turn around Tuesday tomorrow and over bought conditions- not sure the bears are ready to climb into a hole yet- So lets see where we go from here on the over bought conditions.

AFTERNOON CHILL


Markets continue to push higher and the SPX above the all important 800 level at 804+- SPX +36 and NAZ +62.


Strong sectors - banks, financials, brokers, real estate and energy while gold, junk, metals and drugs lag.


NYSE- 2500 net winners;

NAZ- 1675 net winners;

NDX/OEX both with more than 95 green;


VIX- down 7% at 42.7 and only at the SMA 10;


TRIN- .3 with up volume overwhelming the down;


Gold- flat and crude a bit higher at $53.45;


RSI (2) levels:


SPX- 80

NAZ 81

COMPQ 81

RUT 74

INDU 80


OK 805 it is - lets see if it can stay there - if yes (for a few days) we have something - if it sells off into that level - well - same old same old.


MORE ROCKET SHIP


Markets are off to the races on another weekend government plan to buy toxic assets from the banks. Haven't we seen this movie before - anyhow SPX +25 and NAZ +43.


Strong sectors- energy, financials, brokers, real estate and homies while gold, drugs and utils lag.


NYSE- 2425 net winners;

NAZ- 1600 net winners;

NDX- 95 GREEN;

OEX- 95 GREEN;


VIX - down 5% at 43.67;


TRIN- .29 Up volume 40x the down;


Gold/Crude flat;


Market participants not asking for Geithner's resignation today - as we continue to soar higher as I type- levels to look for - 800 on the SPX is level number 1 and after that 805- which is the recent high area and where the market met swift rejection only a few days ago.



3.22.2009

MORNING LINKS


A big weekend in light of the NCAA tournament and the big Obama interview on 60 minutes. Some links to shed some light on next weeks trading:


Shocking GM Chrysler may need more $$$$;


How will the Post Office work after this;


Why AIG bonuses matter;


Solving the housing crisis;


Checking the VWAP;


Credit Unions the next crisis;


Complex and Toxic;


Highways to Nowhere;


Boo Yah Jeff Mathews;


Breaking the Madoff silence;


Fleck got gold;


Eddie with something more on gold;


Dr. Brett on when not to trade;