I guess its time to declare victory as the YM futures opened the session near 13,800, "dipped" to 13,730 and climbed back to the 13,845 area in late afternoon trading. That is a buy the dip scenario that worked as planned.
Brokers, internets, emerging markets, Australia (+44% ytd), metals, banks, homies and small caps were the biggest winners while laggards included semis as usual along with airlines and oil service. Any shot the semis are bottoming now that everyone sees how poorly they are performing?
NYSE internals +1560;
NAZ internals +900
NDX 60 GREEN;
OEX 85 GREEN
IBD 100-75 WINNERS;
BIG WINNERS- MOS CELG MA FCX HPQ EJ TISI HDB SNDA SLT PKX RIO MSFT MER HIG LEH MS GS COF DELL;
BIG LOSERS- BHI RTN CI NSM BUD NSC BEAS AMAT UAUA XMSR LRCX LVLT WCG VSEA BTJ VDSI EXM NOV;
VIX- down 7% and back under the 10 day SMA;
TWO day RSI readings:
Readings getting a bit extended but I believe we rally next week ahead of the fed news on Wednesday. That may be a time to take some off as another sell the news scenario would not be surprising.
Break In- Larry Kudlow with an exclusive interview of Vice President Dick Cheney- VP reiterates all the same positions (keep taxes and spending low, spend spend spend on defense and watch out Iran) he has had for the last seven years oh and sees no chance of a recession in the US or a market crash reiterating the position of administration economists. Back to you Trish and thanks for the great stuff CNBC. And when exactly was the last time an administration's economist predicted a recession?
Contrary to what one may hear on TV, metals and emerging markets are the place to be and not tech as the semis are red yet again and the NDX/NAZ have given back about 1% of the morning gains. The SPX was rejected at 1,530, about the half way point (50% retreacement) between the recent high, 1,575 and low, 1,490.
Aside, from metals and emerging markets, brokers, internets, integrated oils and utils are leading while airlines, trannies, semis, oil service, reits and semis are lagging.
Market internals have come well off their best levels as the NYSE has 800 more winners than losers while the NAZ has about 350 to the plus side.
NDX with about 50 in the green and OEX much stronger with 70 winners.
IBD 100- 65 WINNERS.
IBD 20 with 15 winners led by MOS MA FCX HPQ SLB JNPR and CELG;
Biggest winners- EJ HDB VIP SLT MTL MSFT NIHD JOYG FLEX DELL NTAP HIG MER ATI BMY MS CSCO LEH;
Biggest losers- BHI CI GM NSM RTN CMCSA BUD BEAS UAUA CHRW AMAT LRCX APOL SYMC WCG VSEA VDSI VMW BTJ HDNG;
Markets open higher but are off their best levels as rude crude continues to be a headwind at the new all time record highs in the $92 area. The 20 day SMA of the SPX also looks to be a point of resistance, the 1,540 area. Gold also hitting new 27 year highs at the $770 area.
Strongest sectors include metals, emerging markets, oils, brokers, homies and banks while airlines, trannies, semis and drugs lag. Why would semis continue to underperform with such great news out of MSFT?
Key stocks - 32 out of 40 higher with DECK MSFT MER BIDU MTW UA MA the best of the bunch and KLAC VMW BG NYX CME CAT SMH MO the worst.
NYSE internals- 1,450 net green;
NAZ internals - 925 net green;
NDX - eh 60 WINNERS;
OEX -80 WINNERS;
IBD 100-80 WINNERS;
Biggest winners- VIP FLIR EJ FTK HDB BIDU MSFT MER DELL MS COF LEH NIHD JOYG DELL NTAP FLEX YHOO NVDA EBAYMOS MA FCX;
Biggest losers- WCG VSEA PCP STP EDU HURN VMW CPLA BHI CI NSM DIS GM CMCSA RTN WY BEAS UAUA SYMC KLAC LRCX IACI;
VIX down about 3% and still above the 10 day SMA;
I suspect that pull backs will be bought today and anyone who wishes to day trade - buy em- also I suspect the markets will continue higher next week as under invested folks decide to get on in as earnings season will be almost over and the seasonally strong final two months of the year gets real close.
Also interesting how some folks think earnings season has been under whelming and others think it went pretty well. My take- pretty good and better than expected except for the usual suspects.
Futures are trading way up this morning on the heels of the blockbuster news out of MSFT after the close. Who would have thought a stodgy old company like that could be up close to 15% the day after earnings?
Anyhow, NDX should open trading about 33 over the close as I type and a hair away from a high set back in early 2001. SPX should open about 13 above the close and the DJIA about 80 so should be an interesting morning.
Business Week with a nice story on one of this fish's long time holding TROW, which hit a new high yesterday and is usually a pretty good proxy for a bull market. Assets grow, earnings grow, valuation grows.
BEAS says ORCL offer of $17 is unacceptable.
Gapping up - DV PANC ATSI CFC DELL LEH C GS MSFT RDN SWIR WFR DRIV MTG PALM SYNA CNH SLT MER NVDA; Gapping down- VERT TRID RADS VSEA SU BEAS KLAC BIDU BEAS;
WCG target cut to $50 from $110 at CS;
Markets closed mixed and were very volatile yet again as the SPX had a 23 point range, DJIA 200 and NAZ, the wild one with a mere 54 point range. AIG and WCG were the stories of the day and CME, the stock few follow, almost hit 700. CME IPO'd in 2003 with a price near $40 and I believe the performance has out GOOG'd GOOG but kind of under the radar.
Strongest sectors were utils, oils, emerging markets, metals and gaming while semis, airlines, trannies, homies, brokers and insurance lagged.
Key stocks- primarily lower- leaders VMW GB CME POT ISRG MA MSFT UA WYNN TIF- laggards- NVDA CELG ICE MER RIMM GRMN BAM DECK SMH KLAC;
NYSE internals- 200 net red;
NAZ internals- 500 net red;
OEX 45 WINNERS;
NDX 30 WINNERS;
IBD 100-45 WINNERS;
Big Winners- AKAM MNST ESRX ISRG APOL EMC BDK CI BMY MSFT COP STP FLIR EDU CLB WX CMED;
Big Losers- WCG VDSI BW CELG NVDA CYNO ICE MER CMCSA (yikes) TWX AIG GM COF SLB DELL NIHD SYMC LRCX SNDK RIMM UAUA;
VIX FLAT and stuck at 21, about 5% above the 10 day SMA;
All the recent hot tech stocks in the red including AAPL AMZN BIDU GOOG NVDA and RIMM; recent laggards MOT AKAM MSFT YHOO in the green;
Some interesting stocks on the new High list - MSFT (huh?), CME CVS KO EMC GILD GOOG ISRG MCD MICC NOC STT TROW VMW and YUM; New Low list- EAT C CRAY LIZ MU TUES TWX ZMH.
Rude Crude above $90 and markets try to go higher; markets probably won't go higher till $90 is firmly in the rear view mirror like $50/60/70/80 till the markets ignore it and ramp again; beginning of November?
Potential buy candidates on IBD 20 - CELG NVDA BIIB- all with RSI (2) near 5;
Markets are a mixed bag as crude is all of a sudden knocking on the $90 door again and that seems to be a place now where equities sell off. Seems like they were heading higher this morning after shaking off the Iran talk but when oil headed up the markets U turned.
Strongest sectors- utils, metals, oils, emerging markets and gaming while semis, airlines, trannies and homies lag.
Key stocks 16 up 24 down - leaders- VMW CME ISRG UA BIDU BG MA NYX DECK MSFT - laggards- NVDA CELG POT MER KLAC ICE MTW SMH CAT;
NYSE internals -385 net red;
NAZ internals - 480 net red;
NDX 35 WINNERS;
OEX 40 WINNERS;
IBD 100 -50 WINNERS;
IBD 20- 6 WINNERS- VMW EMC BLK MA FCX ABX- 14 LOSERS- NVDA CELG MOS SLB RIMM SYK JNPR AAPL AMZN GOOG NOV BIIB HPQ HAL;
VIX- flattish and about 5% above the 10 day SMA;
TWO day RSI on major indexes/ETF's:
All of a sudden, TECH is not the place as semis sink another 2% and every component of the SMH is lower led down by BRCM AMAT ALTR and XLNX- each down at least 3.5%.
SOX now down 4% on the year while the SMH is flat; hard to believe given that the MSH is +16% and the NDX is +23%. Just a little food for thought as the semis were always looked at as "leaders."
Markets open lower after the futures pointed up earlier but that ended after the Condi/Hankie press conference where they discussed all the bad about Iran. A little warmongering never helped the markets.
Anyhow, the DJIA -25, NAZ -14 and SPX -3.
Strong sectors- reits, real estate, metals, emerging markets, utils and oils while China, semis, biotech, internets and tech lag.
Looks like more of the market cap of MER is shifting to GS as the former is down 3% while the latter is up over 1%. Also the brilliant move by BAC to buy into CFC may not be so brilliant anymore as CFC has lost about 1/3 of its pre deal value. Nice interest rate though.
Some big winners and losers on some interesting earnings new this AM- Winners:
AKAM MNST ESRX BDK FLIR STP FSTR WX MBT CMG VMW;
Losers- CELG POT NVDA ICE MER MTW AMZN MOS NIHD SYMC CMCSA LRCX;
NYSE internals FLAT
NAZ internals FLAT
NDX internals 40 WINNERS;
OEX internal 30 WINNERS;
IBD 100 -35 WINNERS;
VIX up 2%;
I am keeping the 1,500 level on my SPX radar as that looks like the first area of support while 1,490, yesterdays low is level 2 of support. The 50 day SMA- near 1,497.
Quite a day on the street as rumors of an imminent rate cut bring the DJIA back to flat after being down 200 while crude rising over $2 is completely ignored. NAZ/NDX/RUT were the worst of the major indexes as the tech and small cap value sectors lagged. The DJIA closed -1, NAZ -24 and SPX -4.
Strongest sectors were homies, oils, defense, metals, utils and oil service while semis, internets, tech, china, trannies and small caps lagged.
As mentioned earlier, Xchanges were strong all day while GS flipped to the green and finished up over a buck after being down about $7 earlier on the MER news.
Key stocks -13 green and 27 red led by ISRG ICE NYX CME BG MSFT CAT XOM GS; down were AMZN MER BIDU UA SMH NVDA CROX TIF and INTC;
NYSE internals- 800 net losers;
NAZ internals 1,100 net losers;
NDX -24 WINNERS;
OEX -30 WINNERS;
IBD 100 -25 WINNERS;
Biggest winners- EJ BTJ PKX ISRG VMW ATI BDK GD COF AMGN RTN DD PCAR MCHP DISH GENZ GILD APOL;
Biggest losers- BRCM ALTR AKAM AMZN SYMC JNPR MRVL SNDK MER INTC NSC NSM NXY CI RF WB COP MDT WCG GSOL GES SYNA CYNO VDSI BIDU;
VIX finished flat after giving a nice buy signal when it was more than 10% above its 10 day SMA;
The SPX also ran into a nice back stop at 1,490, (double bottom) Monday's low, and the MACD Histogram seems to be turning up from below the center line which is sometimes a nice buy signal. Best yet, only 5 trading days left in this lousy month.
And who thinks the Fed will come in with a surprise rate cut when a regularly scheduled one can be done in one week. Makes no sense.
The NDX/NAZ/RUT continue to lead the markets lower but some stabilization appears to be setting in. In addition, witness the action in the exchanges V. the brokers:
Anyhow, internals are still awful with the NYSE at 2,000 net losers and the NAZ with 1,675 net losers. Tech heavy NDX with 7 gainers while the more diversified OEX shows 17 in the green.
Aside from the exchanges, biggest winners include:
ATI BDK GD TYC PCAR MCHP GENZ DISH ISRG AMGN GILD BTJ EJ PKX ATW CF TDG CAT;
Biggest losers- lots- AMZN MER NVDA INTC CROX UA BRCM ALTR JNPR LVLT SNDK CTSH NSM MS NXY COP T WB WYNN;
Ten year bond rates down to 4.32% and a flip from bonds to stocks may be in the cards in the not to distant future for the asset allocators.VIX up about 13% while the VXO is a bit scarier up 18%. Both in buy signal mode and about 15% above the 10 day SMA.
SPX now trading a bit below the 50 day SMA (1,500) and seems to have bounced as it hit the low from Monday. A bit below that level (1,490 may be a good stop point for traders that may want to initiate short term long trades.
Looks like the MER conference call isn't going to well as the brokers are getting crushed as I type. MER -6.75%, MS -5.3%, LEH -7% and GS -3.5%.
The brokers are causing the broader markets to nose dive as the DJIA is down 200, NAZ -77 and SPX -29. SOX index down another 5.4% after acting crummy for months and AMZN, after reporting decent earnings, crushed by 17% on guidance. All the hot tech also crushed as the only sector that is holding up is energy on the heels of lower inventory numbers.
IBD 20 stocks now with RSI (2) under 3 includes FCX ABX GOOG HPQ NVDA CELG.
Hopefully, this is the October shake out that will lead to an end of year rally so get your buy lists ready.
My starter list includes GS NVDA UA CELG WYNN LVS GRMN MA RIO POT.
Markets open lower and appear to be gaining downside traction as I type. The DJIA -79, NAZ -37 and SPX -13. MER is the story of the day with the $8b write down and after appearing to stabilize earlier it also appears to be heading lower.
Strongest sectors - airlines,utils, defense and gaming while semis, internets, tech, china and retail lag.
Key stocks - 11 green 29 red with CME ICE GRMN ISRG BG and NYX higher while AMZN NVDA BIDU UA SMH INTC act the worst.
NYSE internals 1630 net red;
NAZ internals 1330 net red;
NDX 16 WINNERS;
OEX 20 WINNERS;
IBD 100-15 WINNERS;
Biggest gainers- VMW BTJ EJ CF PKX GRMN ISRG ATI BDK GD AES AMGN ABT MO PCAR MCHP AOL DISH;
Biggest losers- BRCM ALTR AMZN JPNR LVLT MRVL NVDA MICC SNDK NSC NXM MS NXY WB CSCO MER LEH COP;
IBD 20 stocks that are trading down and nearing RSI (2) buy areas, CELG and BLK.
Tech not looking so great as AMZN SMH BIDU GOOG HPQ INTC NVDA BRCM CSCO TXN all down big. Semis have been going down for some time and I think lots of folks forget that if semis are lagging something must be amiss- unless of course its different this time.
Every Tuesday, IBD ranks 20 Big Cap stocks. The list is computer generated based a combination of profit growth, ROE, sales growth, profit margins and relative price strength over the past 12 months. Minimum market cap required, $15B and daily share volume of 300K.
On the list as ranked by IBD in order:
I intend to follow performance closely and hopefully trade these stocks using a 2 day RSI strategy.
Markets closed at/near the highs of the day but have sold off in the after markets as AMZN reported earnings unfit for a member of the NDX.
Also trading down after the close, BRCM ALTR SVVS TRMB INFN PNRA JNPR and RFMD. Earnings/guidance a bit under whelming for now.
Strongest sectors were China, oil service, internets, emerging markets, metals and tech while semis, homies and utils lagged.
Market internals came on strong in the afternoon accelerating to +1140 on the NYSE and +620 on the NAZ. IBD 100 stocks were very strong all day with over 80 winners led by GSOL CNH CF BIDU HDB ARGN NOV WX and OII.
Tomorrow should be interesting as the market are now just a few SPX points from the middle of the recent range (1,530). Sell? Maybe through the end of October and then perhaps a nice move up to SPX 1600+ as a holiday gift.
VIX still over bought but only 1.5 points away from the 10 day SMA.
It will also be interesting to see if the metals/energy complex can continue upward movement in light of the recent pull back.
Markets continue to trade higher led by the NDX which is up over 1.4% as I type while the large cap indexes are higher by less than half that amount. RUT/MIDs bringing up the rear as they are higher by about .2%. Small cap value in the red yet again.
And a 52 week high on the NDX as I type so congrats to the markets after 6.5 long years.
Strong sectors include China, airlines, emerging markets, metals, oil service and trannies while semis, homies and retail bring up the rear.
Key stocks - 28 out of 40 in the green led by BIDU AMZN RIMM AAPL ISRG BG NYX UA and GRMN while TIF DECK SMH KLAC MER COST NVDA INTC and C lag.
NYSE internals +585;
NAZ internals FLAT;
NDX -45 GREEN;
OEX -60 GREEN;
WINNERS- BNI SLB F NSC GOOG AMGN EMC MRK HAL T MICC APOL AMZN UAUA AKAM NTAP TLAB;
LOSERS- LVLT BEAS ROST IACI SNDK VMED SPLS CHRW KLAC LRCX TXN BDK WMT NSM ALL BMY MER WB COF;
VIX down 5% and still over bought;
Up volume almost double Down volume and TRIN at 1.03;
57 New highs and 56 new lows on NYSE;
100 New highs and 168 new lows on NAZ;
Two day RSI numbers near the mid point at 50 except for the NDX which is near 80;
Markets are defining the usual trading rules as the NQ Futures are up 34 points despite crummy action in semis and financials. BEN TROW also going in the opposite direction of other financials as they make a run at 52 week highs.
Ags- gaining traction led by AG BG CNH DE MON MTW;
Biotech green led by AMGN CELG GENZ;
Gaming- green as usual;
Healthcare - all green as SGP reverses course from yesterday- AZN LLY MRK also act well;
Metals also a turnaround from yesterday as HUI and XAU both up over 2%;
Retail- generally lower led down by COH COST DECK GES TIF WMT;
Tech mixed as AAPL AKAM AMZN GOOG HPQ IBM INFY RIMM YHOO all very green while semis suffer;
ON THE LEVEL
Markets open higher on the heels of good numbers out of AAPL UP etc with the NDX leading the way higher by 1%. The DJIA is +63, NAZ +19 and SPX +7.
Strongest sectors include China, Australia, emerging markets, oil service, metals, trannies, internets, airlines and real estate while semis, retail, banks and small cap value lag.
Key stocks 30/10 green to red with AAPL BIDU UA ISRG AMZN GRMN GOOG MTW LVS and BAM leading while TIF SMH KLAC MER COST DECK NVDA INTC BAC are lagging;
NYSE internals +1,100;
NAZ internals +450
NDX internals 45 GREEN;
OEX internals 65 GREEN;
Gainers- AAPL UA BIDU ISRG AMZN CNH TBSI HDB GSOL OII BNI SLB F T GM BHI GM MICC APOL TLAB GRMN NTAP;
Losers- LVLT BEAS ROST SPLS EXPE LRCX IACI TXN NSM WMT MER XRX BDK ALL MMM TGT CSCO CRNT VIVO EXLS GES FLIR;
VIX down 5% and trading about 6% above the 10 day SMA;
Surprised to see the NDX up 27 while there are more losers than winners and SOX/SMH in the red but I guess its the power of AAPL/GOOG/AMZN/ RIMM/GRMN. And nice to see the metals/energy patch leading the way higher again after selling off the last few days.
Finally, that guy's spec stock of the year, LVLT down 16.5% this morning and now down 36% on the year. How come we only hear about the picks that do well and the ones that are awful get forgotten? And any question he top ticked that one?
Markets closed the day higher after an ugly scene in the futures during pre market trading. The DJIA closed +46, NAZ +29 and SPX +6.
Strong sectors were airlines, homies, small value, small caps, retail, banks, financials, China and semis- lagging was metals, oils, drugs and large cap value.
Key stocks- BULLISH- 30 out of 40 green - leaders- DECK ISRG NVDA GRMN WYNN AAPL LVS GS COST UA- laggards- MA ICE BG XOM RIMM CELG CAT MGM POT BIDU;
NYSE internals +340;
NAZ internals +575;
NDX -75 GREEN;
OEX -70 GREEN;
IBD 100-45 GREEN;
BIG WINNERS- CRNT ISRG CYNO HDNG MTL SYNA NVDA GLNG GRMN VDSI BDK XRX MRK WFC DIS ORCL RTN GS AVP AES ATVI SHLD XMSR SPLS FAST ROST MNST;
BIG LOSERS- SGP AMLN SEPR RIMM ESRX TLAB EBAY MXIM AKAM CSCO SLB WY NXY COP EP XOM BMY MDT CVX MCD FSTR VSEC OII LIFC BTJ CTRP DWSN MR;
VIX - lower by almost 7% and still way over bought;
So the buy signals sang all at once on Friday and after the probe lower the markets rallied nicely. The SPX closed at 1507 leaving the 50 day SMA in the rear view mirror at 1,497 as did the DJIA which has a 50 day at 13,565. The NAZ/NDX acts the best and each closed up more than 1%. RUT/MID also up way outperforming the big caps and value finally gets a day in the sun.
IBD 100 internals lagged major indexes as metals and energy are a disproportionate amount in the momo stocks.
I mentioned a while ago that I anticipated a sell off in October and then a rally for the seasonally strong NOV/DEC end of year period. We will see but that continues to be how I will play.
AAPL TXN AXP COH JBLU LMT LVLT LKX SAY AMTD UAUA all after the close and before 9:30 tomorrow.
Markets continue to trade mixed with the NAZ/NDX/TECH trading higher while big caps continue to lag. The RUT/MIDs also trading up with small cap value leading.
Strongest sectors- airlines, homies, retail, financials and utils while metals, oils, drugs, emerging markets and large cap value lags.
Key stocks- half are in the green including DECK ISRG NVDA GRMN UA AAPL GS COST MO MSFT while the losers include MA BG POT RIMM XOM CROX ICE and MTW;
NYSE internals - 600 net losers;
NAZ internals -130 net losers;
NDX internals -60 WINNERS;
OEX internals- 50 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 30 WINNERS;
BIGGEST WINNERS- CRNT CYNO ISRG NVDA VMW GRMN BDK ORCL WFC MRK DIS AES XRX ETR GS LVLT ROST SNDK XMSR SPLS MNST LOW;
BIGGEST LOSERS- MICC SEPR SGP ERIC RIMM ESRX EBAY MXIM NXY COP SLB CVX WY EP MMM FSTR LIFC VSEC OII BTJ EXM MR DSX;
VIX index FLAT and about 20% above the 10 day SMA;
Up volume- 320M Down volume 380M so just slightly more to the downside;
TRIN .91 and its been down each of the last 5 days- BUY SIGNAL along with VIX and 2 day RSI signals;
NYSE new highs-14
NYSE new lows-170
NAZ new highs-45
NAZ new lows-282
Markets actually looking pretty good as they improve as I type. The strength in small cap value is pretty surprising (up 1%) as its been the worst performer of the year.
Markets trying to make a stand as the tech heavy NAZ/NDZ lead higher along with the financials led by JPM LEH and MS. Markets are over sold and buying here should not be surprising after the initial dip lower.
Strongest sectors include airlines, retail, homies, semis and financials while metals, China, drugs, energy and emerging markets are lower.
Key stocks 23 higher and 17 lower led up by GRMN ISRG DECK NVDA AAPL MS and UA while MTW CROX BAM XOM ICE BG RIMM and POT are lower;
NYSE internals -340;
NAZ internals -115;
NDX 75 GREEN;
OEX 50 GREEN
IBD 100- 35 GREEN;
Biggest winners- CRNT GRMN EJ CHL HDB HAL BDK LEH MS XRX TYC ROK MSFT SNDK XMSR ROST LVLT YHOO SHLD SIRI PETM;
Biggest losers- SEPR ERIC APOL EBAY ESRX JOYG NXY SLB COP AXP MMM DD RTN XOM DOW HPQ FSTR VSEC OII LIFC FTK GMCR GSOL;
VIX index a bit higher and still trading about 21% above the 10 day SMA;
Markets probed lower early and are now in full rebound mode as the NDX futures are up 22 points as I type. SPX futures also up about 4 points and look to be headed higher as financials lead and internals continue to improve.