11.25.2006

BARRONS BOUNCE


Barrons had some interesting articles but the biggest talk is about LBO's and whose next. Check these speculations for takeouts:

In the retail sector - GPS, BBBY, NKE, LIZ and COST.

In tech- MU EMC MXIM ADI ALTR and XLNX.

In energy - APA VLO HES and RIG.

In homebuilders- LEN TOL MDC HOV and KBH.

In consumers- AVP KMB and EL.

Wil Chester, a portfolio manager at Westcore Select - a midcap value fund- finds DOX CSE ERTS STZ DVA GHCI DOV OSK TPX and COH to be his top holdings and stocks he thinks that can appreciate 20% over the next 12 to 18 months.

Finally, Alen Abelson has a chart showing that the term "Goldilocks" has appeared in the financial press as a description of the investment climate an inordinate amount of times in 2006.

11.24.2006

ANOTHER MAGNET


The markets have flipped to flat after the initial gap lower was rapidly bought. Another shocker as demand for equities contintues to surprise bull and bear alike.

Small caps and tech have led the markets back this morning and I suspect they may be the leaders on any market jig next week. Leading lower are internets, drugs, brokers and trannies.

Market internals have also gone green and the NYSE is leading the way as fixed income skews the actual numbers as the 10 year Bond has traded to a 4.53% rate.

One stock that I follow closely that seems to be green about every day is AAPL. It is only about 9 bucks from the magic $100 and for whatever reason, stocks that trade a bit under the century mark tend to get magnetized to the level. I suspect AAPL will be no different and now that MSFT has shown us what a KEWL product they made with ZUNE, the trip to $100 should be quick.

THE OPEN


Markets open lower with the only sectors in the green being metals and oils. OIH is higher by 1% and SSRI is +5% and PAAS is higher by 3.3%.

Weakest sectors include airlines, brokers, biotech, software, retail, trannies, small caps, tech and homies.

Market internals have been improving and now show 700 red on the NYSE and 1100 red on the NAZ.

DJIA winners include GM T AA and VZ while the biggest losers are INTC JNJ HON HPQ and CAT.

The NAZ Futures seem to be catching the biggest bounce off the low, so I will watch that chart for an entry for a quick flip.

BREAKING NEWS


Futures are lower this morning on the heels of some overseas dollar problems and a selloff in Europe. Checking in on some technical analysis, the SPX is way overbought and the stochastics continue to pretzel twist above the 80 line and the 2 day RSI reading is at an extremely overbought (so what) 96. The VXO is way oversold and a full 8% below its very low 10 day SMA of 10.22. The 5 day RSI is also way oversold at a reading of 22. Of course these reading don't mean much as the markets seem to go straight up and those waiting for a correction have been disappointed for many months.

11.22.2006

NOON UPDATE /MORE FACTS


Markets continue in a mixed mode but a little afternoon rally would not be surprising as it happens almost every day.

Sectors winning out today include gaming, internets, semis, tech, airlines, brokers and retail while oils, GOOG, software, biotechs and financials are lower.

Market internals are flat with NYSE +285 and NAZ -140.

Lots of chatter about GOOG and how great the stock is now that it has broken above $500 and trades at a market cap of $150 Billion. GOOG started the year at $417 and change and is up about 22% for the year. Well my money (literally) is on GS, which started the year at $127 and now trades at $200+ which is +57% for the year. Not much chatter about it on bubblevision or anywhere else.

Next year GOOG is forecasted to earn $14 a share and 35x and GS is forecasted to earn $18 or about 12x. Which one do you want?

OPENING TRAP


Markets have settled in lower after starting briskly out of the gate on the heels of the Captain Kirk offer and the good news from DELL.

Strong sectors include oils, metals, gaming, internets, airlines and tech while loser in the land of biotech, trannies, software, retail and drugs.

Market internals are +500 on the NYSE and -300 on the NAZ.

Oil crop reports a big build and the OIH is getting sold which is probably a chance to buy for a run up into year end.

DJIA winners include AA DD HON PFE and BA; to the downside finds GM XOM HPQ and JPM.

I bought some DJIA futures down around the 12,330 level for a quick flip as this market rarely stays down for long

MORE MACAU

Captain Kirk offering $55 for 15 million more shares of MGM while owning about 56% of the outstanding shares. It seems obvious that he wants to own 100% and I refuse to sell at these prices. I mentioned MGM a few days ago as a casino stock that owns properties in Macau and hasn't ripped like LVS or WYNN. Well it looks like I wasn't the only one who saw the opportunity.

On a side note, is that GS trading at $201 plus?

11.21.2006

SORRY- MORE GURU


More Cramer news this afternoon as Melissa Lee tells us how great he did with his GOOG call and asking what he sees now for the stock. I can tell you that buying tech stocks when they get huge market caps is not a winning strategy. There is a long list of tech stocks that had huge valuations and have since given it up including YHOO VRTS RBAK ORCL IBM INTC CSCO ICGE CMGI ARBA DELL AMAT BRCD to name a few. I guess one could just go the realmoney.com site and check for Cramer's "red hots" and many of Jimmy's had to own stocks that dribbled into near nothing. Wondering if someone will ever come in and challenge GOOG in their space is kind of a dumb question in my opinion. Of course there will, the only question is when. Happens to just about all the hot tech stocks.

The other Cramer news is that he has a new book telling everyone how to make Mad Money and the book is free to Action Alert subs. Well of course every time I go to the site that tracks Cramer's picks, he is always seems to be trailing most of the major indexes. Nothing like Mad Money.

His last call on the OIH is another loser and of course has never been mentioned on CNBC. The game is simple, Cramer picks hundreds of stocks and he lets Erin and the CNBC team tell us about the ones that did well like GOOG. Stock picks that don't work out are never mentioned. Anyhow, here is what he said about the OIH on November 16 in a piece titled "Downside Ahead for Oil Stocks", of course the day to buy it:

"Where is that buyer of Exxon (XOM) at $74 and change? This decline is what I really fear with the oils. The darned stock is in free fall, and all of that buying power that was used to move this stock up has now vanished.

Worse yet, when oil was down at these levels last time, the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH) hit a low of $130. Right now, it is at $136. I would sell that index aggressively right here. It makes no sense at all that it is up here.

These are all about to have another big leg down, and I think you have to accept that whoever the heck was buying these now feels like they paid too much and were, in the end, making the bet that crude prices were going to climb.

As I used to say in these cyberpages, wrong!

I own only Halliburton (HAL) for Action Alerts Plus. I own that because of its low valuation. I have no other exposure to the patch.

Feels great."

Probably doesn't feel so great to the folks that sold or shorted on that advice and I see the OIH climbing to $150 or higher by year end.

MIDDAY LOOK


Markets continue to trade near the flatline with a slight upward bias (drift up) as the holiday approaches.

Metals and oils continue to lead while internets, brokers, airlines and software are all higher. Leading to the downside are biotechs, drugs, semis and financials.

Market internals are improving with about 600 more winners than losers and again its NYSE way over NAZ. The ugly trade of the semis (fly in the ointment) is skewing the NAZ after a nice ramp up yesterday.

DJIA winners include BA CAT AA VZ HON and XOM while GM INTC T HD JPM and MO are all lower.

I expect stop and go trading the rest of the day/week so if your nimble you can buy em lower and sell em higher (probably more than once). And isn't it great that CNBC will be running the Faber WMT peace for the upteenth time on Thanksgiving day. Wonder what those ratings will be?

THE OPEN


Markets continue to trade near the flatline with oils and metals the stars. The OIH is back near the $140 level and silver is approaching the $13 area with favorites PAAS (+2.5%) and SSRI (+3.4%) nicely higher.

Sector winners aside from those include internets, brokers and tech. To the downside, small caps. biotech, airlines, finanicials and drugs.

Winners and losers are about equal with +200 on NYSE and -300 on the NAZ.

The DJIA shows 13 winners and 17 losers with VZ CAT AA BA and XOM the winners and GM T JNJ DD HD INTC the losers.

GOOG is trading near 504 and GS has not hit $200, but did hit $199.78, so probably does it today as I go out on the limb and give you $200 before $190.

11.20.2006

GURU LOOK BACK


Almost forgot about tracking Jimmy's speculative favorites on Friday's close- but nope - here goes:

LVLT- 5.19 VS 5.41 on Oct 27-

Q -7.93 VS 8.61 on Oct 27-

ARNA - 14.79 VS 15.41 on Oct 27

So Jimmy is zero for three and as ARNA and LVLT are down about 4% while Q is down about 8% since the buy call here. The SPX as of Friday was up a bit short of 2% in the same time frame. And could the timing have been any worse on Q?

CHOP CHOP


Markets continue to flop around with a NAZ over DJIA slant.

Strong areas continue to be metals, semis, brokers, oils(flipped to green), retail and airlines. Leading to the downside are drugs and biotechs.

Market internals continue to meander near flat with about 350 more winners than losers and most of those on the NYSE.

DJIA winners include AA MSFT HD DD WMT and INTC; leading lower are VZ MRK BA AIG HON and C.

GOOG is not getting much jig and many folks think the NAZ will have a tough time making progress without it even though the SEMIS are acting well.

OPENING CHECK


Markets open mixed with the metals the best performers on the heels of higher gold and the huge buyout of PD buy FCX.

Market internals show about 750 more losers than winners but improving.

Strongest sectors include metals, brokers, airlines, drugs, financials and semis. To the downside, oils, retail, internets and tech.

DJIA winners include AA DD T MSFT JPM and INTC while VZ HD XOM BA and AIG lag.

GS hit a new high this morning and seems to have a clear path to the $200 level on the heels of merger mania. How much money are they going to coin on all these deals?

I expect the markets to flop around much of the week with a slight upward /big cap bias.

TECHNICALS-SPX


Not that it matters, but just looking to see where the SPX is trading in relation to the "market is extended" sell signals. The 2 day RSI on the SPX is at 97 and we are quite extended from all the moving averages. The VXO has slumped to the single digits and trades at about 7% below its 10 day SMA. Another sell signal on the VXO is under 30 on the 5 day RSI. So sell signals abound just like they have for the last two months. Every dip has been bought since the middle of June so just maybe the market is due for a bit of a rest.