6.12.2009

OPENING MUSH


Markets are open and trying to shake off the opening blahs- as the DJIA has flipped to green and the SPX flat- The NAZ lagging and down 18.


Strongest sectors- drugs, real estate, banks and brokers while energy, materials, metals, ags and trannies lag.


NYSE- 800 net losers;

NAZ- 900 net losers;

SPX- 175 up and 320 down;

NDX- 18 GREEN;


VIX- flat at 28;


TRIN- .9 with down volume about 1.7x the up on the NYSE;


Gold down more than 1% and crude down 60 cents at $72;


Specific financials continue to do well - such as BAC GS MS JPM and WFC- most other areas down today-


I don't have much of a feel yet as there were some technical issues - not mine but CONED which had power down here till 10.30 am- so just watching for now and hopefully more insight later.


6.11.2009

CLOSING LOUSY


Market finally came in a bit in the last hour and closed well off the worst levels of the day - and if you look closely - today was yesterday in reverse.


The SPX +6, NAZ +9 and the DJIA +32.


That Ken Lewis stuff a little bizarre as some politicians come to his defense- not sure of the constituency - but reminded me of the GOP defending Roger Clemens- what was the point-


Strongest sectors- energy, biotech, banks, materials and drugs while real estate, homies, retail and internets lagged.


NYSE- 550 net winners;

NAZ- 800 net winners;

SPX- 322 green and 172 red;

NDX- 54 green;


VIX- down 1% at 28.1 and a little under the SMA 10;


TRIN- .79 with up volume almost 2x the down on light volume;


Key stocks - generally look at about 40 and of those V MA FDX AMZN GS PEP GOOG were lagging most of the day and were a pretty good indication that something was not right with the rally.


RSI (2) levels near 75 on the SPX and about 60 on the NDX- RUT lagging a bit and near 50.


Looking for some chop tomorrow as I suspect we are bounded on the top by today's highs and the bottom by yesterday lows - 955/925 levels on the SPX.


Some good stuff on the web:


Barney Frank - giving/taking with Haines;


Jason linking to the problems with the commodity ETF's;


A little late for the liking the rally?;


VIX +MORE on the plummeting HV;


Kass, who was I suspect the first to turn from bearish to bullish now going the other way- lots of folks were bullish at 666 level but they were generally bullish at the 1566 level also;


Dr. Brett with Life success.









EARLY RAMP


Not sure what juiced the market this AM but up it goes as the SPX is +9, DJIA +80 and the NAZ +16.


Strong sectors- banks, biotech, energy, drugs, materials and telecom while homies, metals, retail and real estate lag.


NYSE- 900 net winners;

NAZ- 1100 net winners;

SPX- 388 green and 105 red;

NDX - 72 GREEN;


VIX- down 3.5% at 27.5;


Markets are higher after the afternoon come back yesterday and lots of folks probably feeling stronger than ever about buying dips- even though the markets are over bought again - in light of this mornings move higher.


I sold some SSO purchased yesterday and looking to buy some back at lower prices maybe $27.5 level - also wouldn't mind some XLF or IYF.


Weird discussion on CNBC about ETF's - they talk all day about the DJIA and SPX and now there appears to be something amiss with owning the SPY or DIA - ?

THE ROLLOVER (futs)


Equity futures on the June contract trading up with the ES +1.75 and the NQ +4.25 - and both above fair value.


Crude higher and gold a bit lower while the dollar is down at 80.55.


In the news:


New competition for equities;


Trader Mike looking at the trends;


The captain with some good tips;


BESPOKE on Crude and note its near the 200 and on the short term range;


Of course we have Round II;


Republicans - not so happy - and can you blame them;




6.10.2009

DA BEARS


Markets closed down but I suspect the bears are a bit scared as the bulls made a big move in the final and most important hour of the day.


SPX -3, NAZ 7 and DJIA -24- note - at the worst levels of the day the SPX was off about 15 and the DJIA down 125- so quite a come back.


Strongest sectors- energy, materials, ags, telecom and trannies while real estate, borkers and banks lagged.


NYSE - 300 net losers;

NAZ- 650 net losers;

SPX - 175 green and 315 red;

NDX- 36 GREEN;


VIX- up a hair at 28.55;


The bulls just don't go away and anyone buying down at RSI (2) of 15 on SPX did pretty well today - and I didn't get it down that far but did buy some SSO for a swing move up- also starting to look interesting for the dip buyers is MS- has had a great run but another big down day and it could be an interesting pick.


DBA/DBC still on the radar along with DIG and OIH- the dollar closed higher but I suspect its going lower soon enough and stocks will do the inverse- especially the commodity related stuff stocks.
Note the volume today was a little higher - just don't see why that is a good sign for the bulls as the markets were over extended to the North and have again worked off some of the over bought area.

THE GAP FILLS


Markets were flying but have since fallen back to earth and closed the morning gap- and the strongest area - NDX/NAZ and tech is leading the way down- SPX -1.5, NAZ -13 and DJIA +1.


Strongest sectors- energy, ags, telecom and drugs while real estate, biotech, small caps and brokers lag.


NYSE- 400 net losers;

NAZ- 800 net losers;

SPX - 167 green;

NDX- 15 GREEN;


VIX - up a hair at 28.75;


Market getting worse as I type - and just wondering if this is it for the bulls or will they show like they always seem to before the session ends.


Bought some TBT this morning and looking to dive back into some SSO as just about everyone is finding some reason why the short side is the place to be.

THE FUEL


Overseas markets are surging this morning while the dollar is surprisingly unchanged for the session- Commodities moving on up led by crude and gold.


ES futures up at 954 and the NQ at +16 at 1517;


Looking for resistance at the 960 area on the ES and still with a no shorting policy - for now.


Surprisingly some pretty good bloggers have been looking at toppy action such as VIX+MORE and Jason-


The fine folks at BESPOKE on the high yield credit spreads;


DAVID TICE famous BEAR - not such great results;


Not such good news from the land of the RAIDERS;


Palin in a fight with Late Night- those rarely turn out well for the politicians;


The real story behind all those dingers in the Bronx;






6.09.2009

MORNING CHOP


Markets have generally flipped to red although the NAZ/NDX are still a bit green. SPX -2, NAZ +7 and DJIA -30.


Strongest sectors- semis, materials, tech, oil service and biotech while reits, metals, telecom and brokers lag.


NYSE- flat internals;

NAZ- 350 net winners;

SPX- 220 green and 280 red;

NDX- 75 GREEN;


VIX- lower by 1% at 29.5;


TRIN 1.4 with down volume about 1.5x the up;


Bought some SSO this am but was stopped out - and will be gone for most of the rest of the day in meetings- why do daytraders schedule meetings during trading hours- ?


Anyhow- I would like to buy those back as I suspect the bulls are far from finished for now.


THE USUAL


Back to normal in the financial markets this morning as equity futures and commodities are trading higher while the dollar is returning to the the usual upper left to lower right movement- USD at 80.84.


ES +3, NQ +6.5 and YM +17;


Gold +$5 at $957 and Silver at $15.2 or +1.6%;


Crude higher by $1.3 at almost $69.5;


In other news:


This guy - apparently the reason for the late day fire works yesterday;


New Gallup poll on GM and it appears not to be significant;


BESPOKE on natty gas;


DR. BRETT managing late day risk;




6.08.2009

INTERNAL ACTION

More on the internals - in light of the flat indexes:

SPX/NDX - almost twice as many losers as gainers;

NYSE - 1076 green and 1963 red;
NAZ - 1027 green and 1730 red;

RUT 476 green and 1370 red;

Volume- a bit more than 1 Billion shs traded with about 150% to the downside;

NAZ Volume - almost 2x to the downside;

So the market internals indicate a far from flat day and closing mutual fund prices will probably show many more losing funds than gaining.

THE HIDDEN CLOSE


Something came - but it wasn't lower prices to bounce form - the bounce came from the current prices as the old saying "don't short a dull market" showed perfectly.


The SPX closed down 1, NAZ -7 and the DJIA +1.


It was an index driven market as the internals ended the day much worse that the indexes:


SPX- 169 GREEN;

NDX -34 GREEN;

NYSE- 900 net losers;

NAZ- 700 net losers;


VIX - about unchanged.


Sectors also not confirming the move off the lows will many in the red - although BKX RTH HGX IYF XLF SMH all closed green while XME XLE OIH HHH EWC EWA all red.


RSI (2) levels back to the middle of the range with SPX and NAZ at 50 and the DJIA at 80.


Tomorrow turnaround Tuesday- just not sure if that is up or down - anyhow, one day at a time - and clearly lots of support under at SPX 920/930-

WAITING FOR SOMETHING


Markets flat from the opening dip - and perhaps setting up for a nice move higher into the close- SPX -10, NAZ -25 and DJIA -105.


Strong sectors- banks, bonds, retail, fins and homies while materials, energy, real estate and small caps lag.


SPX- 85 GREEN;

NDX- 15 GREEN;


TRIN .85 with down volume about 2.5x the up;


VIX- 30.75- and higher by 3.7%-;


Have been sitting on my hands waiting for a set up and looking at 920/925 area to get long SSO- if and when-


Also looking to dip into EWC/EWA as they are as over sold as the SPX but probably better prospects going forward-


EURO nearing the highs of the day as the dollar sells off a bit and looking for commodities to regain there leadership before too long.


Hard to believe some of these stats;


No matter what - low crude /high crude airlines always manage to lose;


Barry on fixing TV;


And the Bullish Saut;


THE OPEN


Markets are way down this morning led lower by materials, energy and ags- SPX -12, NAZ 29 and the DJIA 122.


Strongest sectors include banks, bonds, fins, homies and retail while energy, ags, metals and small caps lag.


NYSE-1800 net losers;

NAZ- 1200 net losers;

SPX - 50 GREEN;

NDX- 10 GREEN;


VIX- 31.25 and higher by 5.5%;


Gold down about $10 at $947;

Crude flattish while nat gas is down about 3%;

Silver- not so bright as it slips about $.45 cents at $14.8;


Equities trading at their lows of the day with some support at last months high now taken out- next levels I am looking at is the 920 area on the SPX- daily/weekly pivot support.


In the meantime will buy some SDS/QID- and hopefully get those support levels hit.



6.07.2009

FUTURES LOWER


Equity futures are trading lower as I type - 7.5PM est on Sunday night:


ES -3.25;

NQ -6.5;

YM -25;


And believe it or not the RSI (2) levels are trading near the middle as the big ramp and over extended priced from Friday morning have been worked of- RSI (2) levels on futures as follows:


ES 41

NQ 51

YM 57


Gold and silver up a hair at $958 and $15.36 respectively;


Jason- who had some great tweets last week showing the surge in lotto;


Adam with the latest from Lenny and the real great one;


More talk on what is wrong with the employment numbers;


What wil Kenny boy say now;


Trader Mike with some good stuff;


Barclays with a fully valued GS MS - not sure how they would know;


In world news lots of folks predicted a Hezbollah victory in Lebanon but it looks not to be;