Not sure if the market volatility in the last hour was caused by another car bomb found in London/ sub prime slime found on the books of the brokers / or quarter end adjustments by institutional investors. It was a very volatile final 90 minutes with the DJIA closing -13, NAZ -5 and the SPX -2. The NDX/QQQQ finished in the green.
Technically, the SPX was 8 points above the 50 day SMA earlier this morning (sigh of relief here) , sunk to 14 below and closed a mere 6 below. Volatility the word as the SPX had a range of 24 points and the DJIA with a range of 210. Hopefully a little quieter next week as the holiday hits.
Closing in the green were oils and metals while brokers, homies, biotech, banks and trannies were the worst.
The biggest losers were BSC MER MS GS LEH MSFT JPM CME INTC NTAP FLEX GILD and S.
Winners included AA IP COP RIMM APOL MRVL WBD PCLN FMCN DRYS FCSX and GSOL.
Volatility indexes hit buy signals as they ramped higher with the VXO up 12% and the VIX up 10% as the markets plunged, but have since come back down as the markets rallied in the final twenty minutes.
Low 2 day RSI readings found at S LINTA JOYG CAT XRX AIG DOW IDSA SYNL TWIN
High 2 day RSI readings found at DRYS BIDU RIMM HURC SNDA DECK APOL SUNW VRSN T BRK.A.
Finally, for the first 6 months of 2007- the winners:
Small Cap Growth +14.4%
Oh, almost forgot, one big loser for the first six months, Cramer's favorite growth stock for 2007, NYX, down 24% for six months. It is what it is.
Markets are taking their clues from the brokers and have flipped to red as GS is -3, BSC -4, MER -2.75 and MS -1.
Not mentioned in the media but also stinking up the board are the banks led lower by C JPM and MTB.
Strong sectors include oils, metals, gaming, utils, defense and small cap growth; leading lower brokers, homies, biotech, banks, airlines and trannies.
Market internals still 400 to the green on the NYSE and 100 red on the NAZ.
The OEX/NDX have flipped to red with 25 winners on the NDX and 40 green on the OEX.
Winners include AA COP BA RIMM APOL MRVL AAPL WBD PCLN FMCN DRYS BIDU FCSX EDU PCR BTJ and TBSI.
Losers- IDSA CAI SYNL MER LEH S MRK GS NTAP FLEX GENZ CTSH NIHD MICC and GILD.
The IBD 100 holds in well with 65 green and 35 red.
Probably higher prices next week as sub prime/broker issues head to the back burner and maybe even a 10 year bond rate under 5%.
The morning gap has been filled as the markets flip to flat on the heels of higher crude and crummy action in the financials/brokers.
Strongest sectors included oils, metals, gaming, defense, utils, small cap growth and real estate while brokers, homies, trannies, banks and biotech lag.
Market internals are strong on the NYSE with 800 net winners and flat on the NAZ.
The NDX internals have flipped to red with about 2 stocks down to every one up despite the green NDX index and close to its 52 week high.
OEX internals with 55 up and 45 down.
Big winners include AA COP RIMM APOL MRVL AAPL WBD FMCN DRYS PCLN FCSX and TBSI.
Big losers include IDSA SYNL CAE MICC MER S LTD LEH FDX MRK NTAP GENZ NIHD and GOOG.
Interesting how the IBD 100 is 3 up to every red stock.
Probably more choppiness into the close and higher prices next week as the new quarter begins and hopefully some new money shows.
Markets have opened higher with the DJIA +78, NAZ +14 and SPX +8.4.
Strongest sectors include oils, metals, real estate, utils, small cap growth, gaming and defense while brokers, trannies and drugs lag.
Some warning signs are appearing as the action in the brokerage group is a bit disconcerting with BSC GS LEH LM MER MS all trading red. The banks aren't acting so hot either with AIB BAC JPM and MTB red.
Market internals are great on the NYSE with a net 1,500 to the green while the NAZ is good with 750 net green. The NDX is about 55 up to 45 down while the OEX is much better at about 4/1 ups to downs.
Volatility indexes sinking about 4% and now trading about 3% below the 10 day SMA's.
The 2 day RSI's on the major indexes also getting over bought with readings generally at the 85-90 levels.
Probably some chop from these levels as its Friday and generally a choppy day with a positive bias.
PRE MARKET TALK
Markets are set to open higher on the heels of higher crude (+1%) and a terrific earnings report from RIMM.
The SPX should be an interesting trade again today as it will open a hair above its 50 day SMA which was rejected yesterday.
Gapping up- RIMM APOL KOMG DSTI HOKU CRYO HLYS CBH TASR PCLN FLR ARBA JBLU;
Gapping down- AHM TIBX PALM CPO TM CCL;
In other news, a supposed car bomb found in London;
Kaufman declares MOT to be a slowly developing turnaround story;
HLYS upgraded to outperform at CIBC;
And in conversations which should have taken place but didn't, Joe Kernen with some strategist this morning predicting markets would be up about 9% this year; well Joe why didn't you ask why he doesn't sell everything in his non taxable portfolios and go to money market funds and out perform with a risk free 2.5% for the rest of the year- Yes, a common sense question that will never be asked a CNBC guest strategist.
Markets closed near the unchanged line after chopping around higher most of the day. The DJIA closed -5, NAZ +3 and SPX -.5.
Strong sectors included airlines, metals, integrated oils, tech, gaming and financials; laggards included oil service, homies, semis, reits, internets and utilities.
Market internals closed green with a net 500 green on the NYSE and 100 net green on the NAZ.
The NDX/OEX both closed with a few more losers than winners.
Big winners included F CSCO GM T DELL ATI UAUA VRSN XMSR CSCO AKAM RIMM EDU SNHY CPLA CF CPA MTOX and AMZN.
Big losers included MTL PCR CMCO FCSX S NSM SLB BMY BNI BBBY NTAP PTEN PAYX BRCM GRMN and MCHP.
Volatility indexes also closed near the unchanged line.
Stocks trading at low 2 day RSI's include:
S LINTA SEPR CAT XRX CNA AIG DOW SYNL AVT VLO NFX CROX BX and DXPE.
High readings include:
CPLA FLIR SNDA DECK OPY VRSN CSCO INTU GM.
Tomorrow is Friday and I expect more chop and maybe some jig higher next week as folks invest for the second half.
POST FED MOMENTS
Markets have bounced all over the board in the aftermath of the Fed minute readings but look to be finally heading higher.
Strong sectors include airlines, metals, internets, tech, defense, utilities, drugs and biotech with oil service, homies and semis lagging.
Winners include VRSN UAUA CSCO AMZN MICC GM ATI DNA COF IBM SNHY EDU CF CPA and MTOX.
Losers inlcude FCSX MTL CMCO AVT VIP NOV ALY TRAK S SLB NSM WMB BBBY NTAP MGM and AAPL.
Market internals are very strong on the NYSE with a net 1,000 winners while the NAZ shows about 350 to the green.
The NDX/OEX are strong with about 2 up to every red stock.
Rates are rising as the 10 year is trading at 5.114%, the highest I have seen it in a while.
I bought some OIH a bit ago as it appears to be a bit over sold. Remember, buy em when you can now when you have to.
Markets have flipped higher on the heels of higher crude and higher inflation (lol) as the NAZ and RUT lead the way higher.
Strongest sectors include airlines, metals, oils, utilities, reits, biotech and small caps; lower are financials, brokers, homies, gaming and semis.
Big winners include VRSN UAUA DELL AKAM SBUX AMZN DELL CSCO GM COF AA ATI MTOX CF WBD CLB SNDA POT and FMCN.
Big losers include TBSI VSEA GME CMCO AAPL S LEH NTAP BBBY PAYX and GOOG.
Volatility indexes flattish.
Major market indexes heading now to over bought areas as the 2 day RSI on most major indexes approaches the 75 level with the RUT the highest at 85 and the OEX the lowest at 69.
Its fed day and I refuse to predict where the markets go, nah, I say just chop around with lots of volatility after 2:15.
Those volatility indexes tanked more than I expected and now trade at the mid 15 level and about 5% above the 10 day SMA. So no longer over bought but hardly a sell signal.
Another topic, the daily range on the SPX has been quite wide over the last few days with a 23 point range today and a range of over 20 points on 4 of the last 6 days. The range is typically under 15 so as volatility reverts to the mean, I expect a smaller daily SPX range and the markets to drift higher as they regain and surpass the 50 day SMA. And what happened to the Sub Prime mess?
PRE CLOSE LOOK
Hey now - We finally got the rally no one expected as the markets were way over sold and everyone was predicting the 10% decline since we were already down near 5%. Funny how that didn't work.
The 2 day RSI's on the major indexes now at/near 60 with the RUT/NDX acting best and trading near 75; and don't tell anyone but the NDX is only about 20 points from the recent high and the SPX is about 35 off and attacking the 50 day SMA which is about 5 points above this level.
The volatility indexes are down about 15% but still trade about 10% above their 10 day SMA's so I suspect this rally still has legs and an attack of the old highs on the SPX/DJIA before long would not surprise me. What again are/were the sub prime issues?
Big winners included real estate, semis, biotech, oils, homies, small caps, utilities and tech.
Stock winners inlcuded BAM SLG BSC GS MER MS CME ICE SNDK AMAT TXN INTC CLB GSOL CMCO WRNC DWSN GRMN HURN VRTX BAX LTD and LEH.
Losers included S DOW CAT AIG GOOG YHOO CPA PCU CF TEX WBD TSO MTW and EWA.
Despite the gains I am not selling as I expect we get back to the old highs before too long and much lower levels on the VIX/VXO combo.
Looks like the markets have finally woke up to the fact that they were way over sold and due for a bounce. the SPX Futures were about 12 below fair value this morning and now trade +3 so a nice 15 point rally off the after market lows despite the Mark Haines logic.
The best performing major index is the NDX led by semis, tech and biotech while the DJIA is still flirting with green.
Other strong sectors include silvers, oils, utilities, homies, reits, retail and small caps; laggards include gaming and defense.
Market internals have flipped to green on the NYSE/NAZ with about 800 net winners while the OEX/NDX shows about 3 up to every 2 down.
Volatility indexes cratering about 10% and now trade about 10% above their 10 day SMA's.
Low 2 day RSI numbers found on the following equities:
S AMGN SHLD AIG CAT AMGN GE AA MS SYNL TEX TSO RIMM MT and VLO.
I picked at some MS and am way long in my portfolio.
NOTE TO HAINES
Hey Mark, the futures close after the stock market closes hence if the futures crash after the market closes they will be way below fair value - hence the difference this morning- nothing to do with Chicago futures traders being smarter or dumber than New York stock traders.
Anyhow, major indexes are down with the exception of the NDX which is being led by the semis which may be a pre cursor to a rally some time today. The worst performing index is small cap value which is down about .5%.
Strongest sectors so far include biotech, semis, software, drugs, tech and retail while oils, metals, trannies, financials and airlines lag.
Market internals show about 1,000 net red on the NYSE and about 500 net red on the NAZ.
The NDX almost evenly split between winners and losers while the OEX has about 3x as many losers as winners.
IBD 100 with about 4x losers to winners.
Volatility indexes flattish and still way over bought near 120% of their respective 10 day SMA's.
Winners include CLB GSOL WRNC GRMN MRK ORCL DELL BDK VRTX NVDA GS BSC CME SLG.
Losers include S MICC IACI JOYG ATI DOW GOOG RIMM CF POT HOC DXPE SYNL ICE and MTW.
I have picked up some EWA on this mornings sell off and am looking to add to index ETF's. Watching BSC GS closely for a signal that the worst is over and I suspect it is.
BUY LOWER SELL HIGHER
Durable good orders come in worse than expected and the futures take another dip lower on the news. SPX futures now about 12 points below fair value and if you want to play a gap open, well today is your day.
I have reiterated a few times in the past week or so how over sold the markets are and we are due for a bounce. It gets old after a while but the signals have definitely worked over time. My pal Scottie Rothbort of Lake View Asset Mgt with his research and Dr. Brett with his.
Markets closed the day near where they began as the DJIA was -14, NAZ -3 and SPX -5. The small caps out performed as the RUT was only down .17%.
Strongest sectors included drugs and biotechs with metals, airlines, oils, trannies and internets lagging.
Market internals flipped to red in the afternoon with almost 1,000 net losers on the NYSE and about 300 net losers on the NAZ.
The NDX had about an even number of winners and losers while the OEX had about twice as many losers as gainers.
The VIX was up almost 13% while the VXO about 7% and both trade over 20% above their respective 10 day SMA's.
The TRIN closed up at 1.28 and the three day in a row above 1.0 test has now been met. Also six out of seven days above 1.0 so over sold is now the word.
The numbers on the ADV/DEC lines also shows way over sold as does the 2 day RSI numbers now under 10 on most of the major market indexes.
A pretty big rally probably building near here as all the signals are finally in place.
THE CHOP CONTINUES
Markets continue to chop with volatility as the DJIA has seen about a 120 point range thru 2:00 while the SPX has seen a 12 point range. The recent trend on the DJIA is down as a stream of lower lows has appeared over the last few hours.
Strong sectors found - drugs, utilities, banks, biotechs, real estate, brokers and gaming. Weak links - metals, homies, oils, airlines, trannies and retail.
The good - MRK MO PFE JNJ PETM CELG GENZ VRSN MO MDT WBD MTOX TBSI HDNG HURC and GTI.
The bad- CMCO SIMO FTK GSOL TSO COP WMB ATI BHI NVDA VMED PTEN AAPL ADBE AA and DD.
Market internals bearish on the NYSE (-400) and flattish on the NAZ. The NDX/OEX combo both trading with an equal amount of winners and losers.
Volatility indexes- flat and trading about 15% above the 10 day SMA's.
The TRIN is above the 1.0 line and a close above will throw off the trade signal mentioned earlier.
My take, someone or someones are selling into every rally and metals, oil down big- so just maybe a forced seller liquidating some positions? And when it ends someone gonna make a good chunk of dough buying the sell offs IMVHO.
Markets are trading all over the board with an upward bias as I type.
Sectors acting best include utilities, drugs, brokers, biotech and large caps; leading lower are metals, oils, semis, internets, airlines and retail.
Big winners include CELG GENZ DELL GOOG CMED WBD WRNC CPLA CF and BIDU.
Big losers include SYNL SIMO CMCO NVDA TWIN NOV MT MTW KFT BHI COP AMGN LRCX and MXIM.
Volatility indexes hardly changed.
Market internals slightly better than flat on both the NDX/OEX while the NYSE is about flat and the NAZ slightly red.
BX has broken through the IPO number of 31 and may be a buy here as all the blah blah starts.
Silver getting crushed and now trading under $12.5 and may also be a buy as it seems like forced sellers are dumping it.
And what happened to the break out on GE and SMH. The usual as break outs generally fail and these two are living up to that rule.
The 4 Cramer horseman, since he called them on June 7, on an equal weighted basis they are down about .5% while the XLK/QQQQ are about flat. Not bad considering its cramer.
Major market futures are trading above fair value this morning and the market is still in oversold territory on the heels of the BSC/GS sub prime mortgage issues.
One market timing method explained in a recent TradingMarkets.com article features the TRIN. The TRIN is a mathematical formula devised many years ago by Dick Arms, a columnist at realmoney.com, that compares volume with advancing and declining stocks. The trading methodology is to buy the market when the TRIN closes above 1.0 three days in a row and the market trades above its 200 day SMA.
Currently, the markets are above the 200 day SMA but the SPX has sunk below its 50 day SMA. The TRIN closed at .50 off the rally last Thursday but has closed above 1.0 on 5 of the last 6 trading days and the VIX/VXO/VXD triad trade on average about 15% above their respective 10 day SMA's and the 2 day RSI levels on the major indexes is at/near the 15 level with the RUT at 10. My moving average tables of the ADV/DEC lines are also deep into oversold territory and usually when signals line up and its hard to buy its time to buy.
Markets closed lower but well off their worst levels as the sub prime mess continues to weaken stock prices. The RUT/MIDS were again the worst of the major indexes as folks look to capital preservation with the under owned big caps.
Strong sectors included utilities, trannies and internets while reits, silvers, metals, homies and brokers were the worst performers.
Winners included CMCO BTJ FLIR AFSI GRMN GOOG FDX CVX and ABT.
Losers included SYNL EML CYNO FCSX IDSA ICE LAYN GS BSC MA BOT CME and NMX.
Market internals close ugly with about 1,000 net red on both the NYSE and NAZ while the NDX/OEX closed with 3 up to every 7 down.
The rate on the 10 year has silently dropped down to 5.078% and maybe before long that will the story that gets stocks higher.
How close to the bottom are we? Eh, not sure but about 25% of the OEX/NDX components now trade with 2 day RSI levels under 10 while the actual indexes trade near the 15 levels.
Futures are moving up as I type so maybe yet again another over sold bounce manyana.
Markets continue to be volatile as the DJIA has already traded in a 180 point range. The RUT/MID complex continue to lag as the big caps take the baton and lose less.
Strongest sectors include utilities, trannies, gaming and drugs while reits, metals, oil service, homies, semis and brokers lag.
Winners include MGM GOOG APOL GRMN CSC GM MCD ABT CMCO AFSI TBSI BTJ FLIR and VIP.
Losers- HDNG FCSX EML SYNL BWLD ME SLB HAL GS BHI KFT BEAS MRVL RIMM NVDA and BRCM.
The VIX is up 8% and now trades at 16% above its 10 day SMA while the 2 day RSI on the big indexes trade in the 10-15 range.
Market internals have flipped to about red 2k on the NYSE/NAZ while the NDX/OEX have also flipped big to about 1 up to every 3 down.
The sub prime mortgages are back on the radar roiling the markets; my take- its a good time to scale in as we come up to the end of the month/end of the quarter and end of the first half. Gains may not appear tomorrow but I am betting this will eventually fall to the rear view and good earnings news will take us back higher as the strategists suddenly realize stocks are on sale yet again.
Markets are trading higher after flopping around earlier and the SPX has regained the 50 day SMA.
Strong sectors include utilities, trannies, defense, drugs, large cap value and financials. Laggard include metals, reits, brokers, airlines and oils.
Big winners include ESRX GRMN DELL LINTA GM EXC CSC MCD AFSI GSOL SPAN TBSI MTOX SIMO CMED and SPTN.
Big losers include FCSX NOV SNP SYNL TLVT SLB EMC HAL BHI GS AA ME PTEN RIMM CTXS AMAT MRVL and NVDA.
Volatility indexes are mixed with the VIX higher by 2% and the VXO lower by 4%.
Market internals are flat on the NYSE and slightly positive on the NAZ- The OEX is way good with 4/1 ups to downs while the NDX is about evenly split between winners and losers.
Lots of chatter on CNBC about taxes and how the government wants to soak the rich and increase taxes on private equity etc. Well why not eliminate all taxes on anything to do with the word "equity" and all the wealth will trickle down to the fireman and police.
So what if the worker pays a 35% tax rate plus payroll taxes; let the guys who buy and sell companies full time (their trade or business) pay 15% with out payroll taxes.
BEEN THERE SEEN THAT
Markets are set to open higher as the NDX Futures are trading about 6 above fair value and the SPX Futures about 3 over.
The picture above looks pretty familiar as the VXO trades about 17% above its 10 day SMA and the OEX at a 2 day RSI of 17. Not quite a buy signal on the OEX but close enough in light of the way over bought VXO stretch.
This pattern has appeared many times and is usually a good short term entry point.
Other news worthy items:
RIMM target upped to $210 at UBS;
AMGN downgraded to equal weight from over weight at LEH;
PIR upgraded to buy at UBS;
Barrons was bullish on CFC LUM CNX STT and bearish on CROX and BX;
Interesting stocks in the IBD 100 include NVDA BWLD BHP NOV GES TSO MTW HOC CAM BTJ RIMM AAPL TEX and ICE;