10.13.2006

THE CLOSE


Looks like the word for the markets is RESILIENT, as they refuse to roll over despite how far they have rallied in the past few hours, days, months etc. My favorite stock, GS is up another 1.3% and is nearing the $185 level as it also refuses to have a red day.

Sector leaders today were metals, oils, brokers, semis, techs and small caps. Worst groups were retail, airlines, biotechs, consumers and drugs.

Market internals, green all day and are closing with about 1,200 more winners than losers.

The VXO is down about 6% (about 6% below its 10 day SMA) in the 10.2 area, approaching or at a new low, leaving few to believe the markets will ever have another down day or anything resembling a downtrend. Can one say buy the dip or who doesn't expect a gap up open on Monday morning.

NOON VIEW- MER


Stocks continue to trade mixed with small caps and tech outperforming the DJIA and the SPX.

Oils stocks are the shining light today on the heels of higher crude and any chance that they take up the DJIA this afternoon? Yeah I say they do and my money is on the line.

Sector outperformers today include oils, metals, tech, GS, LEH, AAPL and the semis. To the downside find the retailers, airlines, biotechs, consumers, drugs and internets. MER has also been a great stock as noted by the chart. I expect terrific earnings from them shortly.

Market internals have hung green most of the day with +500 on both the NYSE and the NAZ.

The TICK's continue to trade above the zero line for most bars and that is generally bullish as the buy the dip crowd will probably show before the day is over. And any chance for a gap opening higher on Monday?

THE OPEN


Markets open mixed and unfortuneately for Haines and the other CNBC geniuses/chearleaders, the DJIA and the big caps are trailing the little guys. The SMH is also acting as best in class major ETF with IWM right behind.

Michigan sentiment, a strong 92.3 and homies bouncing back on the heels of the CTX warning.

Market internals are flattish with about 350 more winners than losers.

Strongest sectors include metals, oils, tech, semis and small caps. Losers include GE HD, retail, biotech, airlines, consumers, internets and drugs.

Keep in mind that the day after big trending days tend to be choppy.

Looks like the markets are set to gap lower this morning on the heels of weaker retail sales and not so great news from the folks at Mother GE. Do not fret, even if today is a down day, is there any shot that folks won't be buying with both hands on Monday morning?

One of the best performing sectors of late and through the latest bull run from mid June has been the brokers. Take your pick of the majors, GS MS MER, all have done great and if you think the party will continue on and on and on, there is no better way to play. And if you drill down to the numbers, its hard to make an argument that these stocks are expensive. In addition, I suppose before long someone will pay up for the Morgan name and it will be gone in a takeover by a big bank.

10.12.2006

SEMI TAKE


Never another down day and it looks like the SMH has gotten a bid after lagging as it is now up over 1% on the day and back to the big $35 resistance level. And yes bubblevision, the best performing major market index is the small cap IWM +1.45%. The big talk DJIA is +.7% so not even close.

And check out the best acting sectors- silver stocks, airlines, AAPL, oils, metals, brokers, retail, semis and biotechs. Laggards include C DNA YHOO HD GOOG WMT and C.

Market internals continue very strong with over 3,000 more winners than losers.

Volatility indexes finally starting to cave a bit with VXO moving solidly below the 11 level.

LATE NOON LOOK


As I stare at my screens and listen to the words flow out of Haines et al's mouth's, I can't help but wonder if the markets will ever have a down day. Each and every strategist/anayst/investor/trader appearing on bubblevision is bullish even though most concede the economy is slowing. My guess is we will have down days again and probably pretty soon.

For today, the bulls continue to run although the action in the SMH and the NDX continues to put a little thought in the back of my head that they may reverse just when we least suspect.

Market internals continue to trade at a very bullish +2,900 level and sectors acting best include oils, airlines, brokers, metals, retail and small caps. Trading lower are CSCO KLAC DNA C GOOG AMAT NVLS MXIM MRVL BRCM and WMT.

The 10 year Bond is trading at a yield of 4.76% and the Volatility indexes continue to trade down 2% and trying to hit a weak sell signal.

HEADS UP

Yes, great action almost everywhere and especially the market internals. What me worry- Yes a bit as the NQ Futures and the SEMIS are not exactly leading the charge with both barely in the green- and they lead.

LATE OPEN

GOOG is doing its best to confound the bloggers but it is now working - somewhat anyway. Markets on the other hand are working very well as they again rip higher confounding both the longs and shorts with no one thinking that they are long enough.

Best performers include brokers (GS), airlines, oils, small caps (outperforming again despite moron Haines et al), retail, internets, and trannies. To the downside DNA C Volatility indexes and GOOG.

Market internals very very bullish with 3,000 more winners than losers.

We are getting very very overbought and not a bearish analysis in sight.

10.11.2006

THE CLOSE


Anyone watching the markets today can see pretty clearly that there are plenty of bulls who want to buy market dips. The opening dip was immediately bought and the gap on all the major markets were closed within a few hours.

The dip on the Fed minute release was also quickly bought and then the big dip on the news of the plane crashing into a NYC building was bought big time bringing the markets quickly back to the daily pivots.

Market internals opened the day with about 1k more losers than winners on the NYSE and NAZ; then quickly rose to the unchanged level and are closing with about 1,200 more losers than winners.

The Semis have been strong all day and are closing green by about 1.4% and the brokers have bounced from solidly in the red to near the unchanged level for MER MS and GS. As long as those two sectors hang tough, its going to be hard for bears to bring the markets down.

T Boone's bet of 70 before 50 is not starting out so great as oil slides under $58. I think he will ultimately be correct and this winter we may be asking how we didn't buy oils stocks in light of all the recent take over activity (prediction for the winter) yes, takeovers galore.


The VIX and the VXO continue to trade near the 11/12 levels and have not given any signals in quite some time. Eventually they will go up and the markets will go down, but for now the bulls are completely in charge as every dip is quickly bought.

FED MINS

Markets sell off on the Fed Minutes with key points being inflation not declining and growth moderating.

Anyone watching the interday action on the major indexes should have seen the action pretty clearly- a steady march from support to resistance and a gap fill all in a few hours. The NAZ started the rally and was quickly followed. I will bet (trade) that this dip is also quickly bought.

One item on the trading radar remains the SPX monthly resistance at the 1,354 area. It has been knocked on a few times already, my guess is that it won't be long before it becomes support.

MORE BOONE


So with Boone's $70 before $50 proclamation, is there a trade to be made. Well if anyone hadn't noticed, the OIH has seems to have bottomed in the 120/125 area and if crude goes back to the $70 area, any chance we get OIH back to the 140/150 area? My guess is yes and a stop at the recent lows looks appropriate. So a good risk to reward trade in my humble opinion.

CLOCK WORK


Right on schedule (immediately) the bulls bought the opening dip and have sent the markets rallying as a clear heads up was provided by the SEMIS (SMH) - which are up over 1.5% as I type. The NAZ futures were another way to play as they have rallied about 12 points from the open. The DJIA is the laggard index down about 25 while the NAZ COMP has flipped to green and the SPX is still a tad lower.

Market internals started the day down about 1k on each exchange and have now flipped to flat and the TICK has also been strong all morning rarely trading below the ZERO line.

GS, a key tell for the markets closed the opening gap down on the heels of the LM blow up and morning buy has paid off nicely.

Strongest sectors include silver, semis, metals, retail, airlines and tech. Weakness is found in the brokers, internets, oils, trannies, drugs and biotechs.

I continue to think buy the dip is the trade of the day and check out the inter day chart on MER. Those two brokers, MER and GS are excellent tells and I would not be surprised if the DJIA gap gets closed before trading is done for the day.

And is anyone else tired of this same old speech from W. I know I am right; I know I am right- Don't confuse me cause I know I am right.

THE OPEN


Markets open lower with the DJIA-40, NAZ -11 and SPX-5 with a bright light found in the SEMI space as the SMH is green.

Market internals show 700 to the red on NYSE and 830 red on NAZ.

Strongest sectors include silver, semis and some retail; to the downside are broker led lower by LM down 16% on the heels of crummy numbers; trannies, internets, biotechs and oils all lower.

Keep an eye on those SEMIS, as they usually lead and I suspect a snap back rally before the day is done as the internals have been steadily improving.

BIG BOONE


Hope every one caught Boone Pickens this morning on CNBC. He really put it out there with a prediction of $70 oil before $50. Of course that is up $11 before it goes down 9 - so not sure how much of limb.

Anyhow the DJIA is set up down about 45 and I bet (trade) it won't be long before the bulls step in and buy this dip. There are some pretty well defined entry areas for the YM DJIA futures at the 11,860 and 11,880 levels.

One big reason I think this dip gets bought pretty quickly is the action in the NAZ futures. They are hardly red on the heels of the DJIA dip on the AA miss. GS also indicated lower and it will be a pretty good tell for when /if the market will turn.

10.10.2006

CLOSING THOUGHTS


Markets closed on an up note as the early afternoon dip was shockingly bought again by the dippers. For the pivot watchers, the DJIA support pivot at the 11,890 area held like a charm and the DJIA bounced through the pivot point to the 11,930 area near the close. If one had held the trade through the afternoon, a nice 35 point gain.

Market internals also flipped green this afternoon and closed with about 500 more winners than losers. Best sectors were oils, trannies, metals, brokers, retailers and some banks. Losers were internets, biotechs, drugs and some tech.

Please note the strength in GS as this stock is just pure green as it never ever seems to have a down day or a significant pullback. Not sure if its because of great earnings for the next quarter or a massive buyback; my money (long GS) is on both.

Keep in mind that the monthly resistance pivot of SPX 1,354 is right above us so it may take stops out or it may be another brick wall.

AFTERNOON LOOK


Back to the turrets after taking care of the bird yesterday and this morning.

The screens are pretty dull as I type with Oils moving higher on the heels of crashing crude prices. I have no clue as to why and have pinged some pretty shrewd traders and the response is consistent to my question- No Idea?

Sectors acting well today include- OILS, trannies, brokers, banks, airlines and retail; losers include biotechs, internets, drugs, semis and tech.

Market internals are flat one reason for the about turn in the SPX is the monthly resistance level of 1,354. Markets hit that and seemed to have run into brick wall.

And breaking news- Torre is back as Yankee manager and I for one say bad move. He has now lost ten of his last twelve playoff games and in baseball and trading parlance, that is statistically significant.

10.09.2006

THE CLOSE


Sorry for the lonely one post today but duty called elsewhere and I will also be out in the AM.

Markets had a decent day as DNA KLAC ORCL GOOG KSS HD CSCO and GS all excelled to the green. Market internals flipped interday from a negative 1,200 in the early trade to a plus 1,200 at the close.

Oil stocks also flipped red with the OIH closing down over two points in spite of higher crude.

Other notable losers included YHOO MSFT PAAS WMT and AMGN.

Semis were strong in the morning but sold off in the PM as INTC closed unchanged. Maybe a little tell of the story for tomorrow as these guys have been leading in both directions.

The brokers continue to act great with GS+$1.8, MS +$.59 and MER+$.5.

Volatility indexes continue to hang near the 11 level and my guess is when they break higher the market is gonna break pretty hard. For what it is worth.

Finally for the yankee fan/observer who wants to dump AROD for prospects or whatever, what happens if you get prospects for him that don't work out well and he gets hot for then next several years and ends up with 800 homeruns for his career. Just more food for thought.

OPENING CHECK


Markets open slightly lower on the heels of a successful nuclear blast by North Korea. Also some chatter from OPEC that they will try to cut production. Been there heard that before from these guys.

Sectors and stocks that are outliers this AM include GOOG +8.5, metals, oils, internets, GS, MER, MS and Semis all higher; to the red airlines, trannies, AAPL, MSFT, TGT, BSC, small caps, retail and drugs.

Market internals show about 1,200 more losers than winners which is somewhat bearish.

One thing is certain, just about every strategist on CNBC is calling for higher earnings and higher markets with an easy 1,400 target for the SPX. Don't know how easy this one is going to be and just wondering how much bad news is now factored into the markets.