5.04.2007
Markets are drifting higher this morning on the heels of merger Friday and some tepid jobs numbers.
The major market indexes are all up about .4% with the NDX the leader on the heals of YHOO.
Strong sectors include internets, metals, semis, airlines, gaming, tech, drugs and oils; leading lower are big cap biotech, retail and trannies.
Key stocks generally higher led by MS GS ICE BOT RIMM BIDU MER MGM SGP and MRK.
Lower stocks include GOOG MSFT (MSFT for YHOO news), AMGN DNA CME PG and MO.
Market internals are very strong on the NYSE with a net 900 green and not so strong on the NAZ with net 400 green.
The OEX/SPX have the best of the big 3 internals as they trade with better than 3/2 up to down.
The IBD 100 also strong with about 4/1 up to down led by ROCM PCLN NTGR BTJ GSOL CELG WBD WFR MT RIMM and PCU. Trailing are MIDD HWCC RYAAY OMCL UCTT SIMO and DWSN.
Volatility indexes down to the mid 12 levels and a shade under their respective SMA's.
The move to the old SPX high continues and I would be surprised if it did not happen next week.
MERGER/JOBS FRIDAY
Markets look to open higher yet again on talk of a MSFT for YHOO deal and a Thompson for RTRSY in Europe as the markets keep marching to the old SPX highs at the 1,527 (closing high) and 1,557 (all time high) levels.
The jobs number came in at 88K vs. 110k consensus, so maybe just right, not too hot not too cold.
Interesting that Mario Gabelli may be going to the courts to block the Dolan's take out of CVC. Mario and his funds own about 20,000,000 shares and he believes the deal undervalues the company by about $15 per share.
Long time since one of these but Cramer was bullish on HRS GOL ATI TWX CHTR CMCSK UNP NUE RS ATW NBR HPQ VLOE MET and HOG; he was bearish on BRCD TIE FWRD ACLS and RG.
5.03.2007
THE CLOSE
In one of the more boring days in a while, the markets managed to close green with the big cap indexes out performing again. The OEX/SPX were +.4% while the RUT was flat.
The big news was that the SPX crossed over the 1,500 level on a closing basis and the NAZ climbed back to 50% of its all time highs set 7 years ago. Quite an accomplishment indeed.
Strongest sectors included internets, trannies, oils, metals, defense, homies and large cap value. Weak links included gaming, biotechs, retail, utilities, airlines and drugs.
Market internals were +500 on the NYSE and flat on the NAZ while the OEX was about 3/2 green to red and the NDX about evenly divided between winners and losers.
Key stocks generally higher with GS MS LM CME NYX ICE BOT GOOG MSFT RIMM BIDU MO XOM VLO and SGP leading while the red ones included C BAM TGT KSS PVH AAPL PG AMGN MGM WYNN LVS CTSH and DNA.
Biggest winners included MNST PTEN EXPD SYMC MRVL SNDK VZ XOM NSC RF and DELL.
Biggest losers- GM WMB AMGN WY KFT XRX ATI SO INTC CL RYAAY ICAI WYNN XMSR VCLK TSO SYNL and MGM.
Volatility indexes flat and still trading above their respective 10 day SMA's.
Bottom line, its still a bull market, maybe a pull back tomorrow but imvho, we are going higher sooner rather than later and will be at/above the old SPX highs from March of 2007.
THE BUFFET
Markets have cleared the 1,500 level and the next target looks to be the 1,527 area, the prior closing high on the SPX back in March of 2000.
Market internals have improved and are now green on both the NYSE and NAZ.
Trannies, airlines, internets, techs and defense continue to lead while gamers such as LVS MGM and WYNN continue to trade lower.
Earlier in the day there was a "discussion" about the merits of splitting BRK stock so that smaller investors could purchase shares. I thought the whole subject pretty nonsensical for if one wants to own a big chunk of BRK, buy FAIRX, a mutual fund with a terrific long term record run by Bruce Berkowitz. According to the most recent documents, about 17% of its assets are in BRK shares.
And speaking of great investors, how about what Michael Price said about DJ yesterday:
Dow Jones & Co. may fetch $100 a share in a takeover, said Michael Price, whose mutual funds were among the industry's best performers during the 1980s and 1990s. "This is a trophy,'' said Price, whose MFP Investors LLC owned 351,000 Dow Jones shares as of Dec. 31. "This could be a $100 deal.'' Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. yesterday offered $60 a share for the owner of the Wall Street Journal, Barron's and Dow Jones Newswires.
The bid, 65 percent above the previous day's close, was rejected by Bancroft family members who control more than 50 percent of the voting power at the New York-based publisher. "Rupert will meet with the family over the next month, he'll schmooze them,'' Price said in an interview today in New York. ``He'll smoke out other bidders.''
Just food for thought and I continue long DJ as I expect other bidders and higher prices.
Market internals have improved and are now green on both the NYSE and NAZ.
Trannies, airlines, internets, techs and defense continue to lead while gamers such as LVS MGM and WYNN continue to trade lower.
Earlier in the day there was a "discussion" about the merits of splitting BRK stock so that smaller investors could purchase shares. I thought the whole subject pretty nonsensical for if one wants to own a big chunk of BRK, buy FAIRX, a mutual fund with a terrific long term record run by Bruce Berkowitz. According to the most recent documents, about 17% of its assets are in BRK shares.
And speaking of great investors, how about what Michael Price said about DJ yesterday:
Dow Jones & Co. may fetch $100 a share in a takeover, said Michael Price, whose mutual funds were among the industry's best performers during the 1980s and 1990s. "This is a trophy,'' said Price, whose MFP Investors LLC owned 351,000 Dow Jones shares as of Dec. 31. "This could be a $100 deal.'' Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. yesterday offered $60 a share for the owner of the Wall Street Journal, Barron's and Dow Jones Newswires.
The bid, 65 percent above the previous day's close, was rejected by Bancroft family members who control more than 50 percent of the voting power at the New York-based publisher. "Rupert will meet with the family over the next month, he'll schmooze them,'' Price said in an interview today in New York. ``He'll smoke out other bidders.''
Just food for thought and I continue long DJ as I expect other bidders and higher prices.
1500 TAGGED
Markets trade choppy on the heels of good economic numbers and some earnings misses and beats. The refiners opened way lower but are coming back off the bottom as are the gamers.
Strongest sectors include trannies, airlines, silvers, internets, defense, drugs and tech. Leading lower are gaming, retail, oil service, biotech, small cap growth and utilities.
Key stocks are mixed with GOOG AAPL RIMM BIDU MSFT INTC MER MS LM CME ICE MA SGP PFE all higher while GS ISE C PG and GE are lower.
Market internals also mixed with a net 325 green on the NYSE and flat on the NAZ.
The OEX internals are 65/35 green to red while the NDX is 45/55 green to red.
IBD 100 winners include DLB HURN GSOL ROCM ICE and GROW while the losers are TSO VCLK CELG MGM OMCL and ROLL.
Value is beating growth as SPX 1,500 again at spitting distance after being tagged earlier in the day. I look for a choppy session but a move higher would not be surprising as lots of folks probably have a fear of missing.
PRE MARKET
Futures markets are rallying and the DJIA is set to open at another all time high and the SPX should open above 1,500 on the productivity gains numbers which were much better than expected at +1.7% vs. .8% consensus.
Gapping up - EPCT QMED NVEC YMI BUF SMDI MRX TSYS ALAN RNWK SLW SYMC EFUT CEGE and gapping down - TLB SMSI JDSU AHO RIGL INCY ANDE CELG APKT TSO UBS LVS SUN WYNN AGU. Note the refiners getting hammered on the TSO miss so this may trigger a Buying opportunity in the refinery patch. B of A beats me to the punch and comments Q1 miss on SUN likely creates a "buying window."
MGM also missed its numbers and if that gets hit it may be a nice opportunity to buy the dip.
5.02.2007
THE CLOSE
Markets sold down in the final 90 minutes of the day but still closed +76 on the DJIA, +26 on the NAZ and +10 on the SPX. The RUT /MID were the best performing major indexes.
So why the sell off? No news just a suspicion that the 1,500 number on the SPX was sold as we reached 1,499 and change.
Strong sectors were gaming, silvers, real estate, emerging markets, airlines, small cap growth, metals and defense. Laggards included big biotech, GOOG, drugs and utilities.
Market internals closed strong with 1,650 net green on the NYSE and 1,120 net green on the NAZ.
The NDX/OEX/SPX had better than 4/1 green to red.
Strong stocks included S VZ GM DD CSCO ATI TWX FLA BAM DEL MA AIB LM ICE BOT ISE MGM WYNN and LVS. Weak links included CSC XRX DELL IBM WFC TGT PG CTSH GRMN NVDA BEAS LOGI DELL and BIIB.
Volatility indexes hardly budged on the rally and continue to trade at/near their 10 day SMA's while the 2 day RSI's on the major indexes generally trade between 80 and 90.
MORE BAM
A wonderful day on the street as BAM OILS REAL ESTATE BROKERS GAMING SILVERS and AUSSIE stocks all act great.
The RUT/MID stocks continue to out perform the big caps but all are doing well.
Strongest sectors include gaming, silvers, airlines, real estate, small cap growth, metals, defense, trannies, brokers and biotechs while drugs, software and banks lag.
Key stocks generally higher led up by BAM FLA DEL MA AIB GGS LM MER MS ICE BOT ISE CME AH GILD MGM WYNN and LVS. Lower to mixed are GOOG PG NYX and WFC.
Market internals continue to trade super bullish with the NYSE +1,680 and the NAZ +1,200.
The OEX/NDX both about 8.5/1.5 up to down while the SPX is a bit better than 4/1 up to down.
The IBD 100 group also trades well with 80/20 the green to red.
Big IBD winners include BWLD DWSN UCTT HURN WFR VIP SYNL CF OMCL ICE SNHY and WBD. Losers- HWCC ROCM GMR CYNO GROW PTNR DRQ and EOC.
The DJIA also with great internals as 27 DJIA stocks trade higher led by GM VZ DD HON AXP and INTC. The 3 dogs are IBM PG and JNJ.
Volatility indexes are lower but hardly crushed as they trade in the mid to high 12 range.
I own YM/ES futures and plan to hold for the new highs SPX break out highs maybe some time next week. It seems to be a high probability trade. Just go back and looks what happened when the DJIA started making new all time highs at the 11,700 level.
RALLY HATS
Looks like the equity rally is back in place as the markets rally led by the small/mid caps.
The DJIA is +88, NAZ +23 and SPX +11 while the recent under performing RUT/MID are both up well over 1% and significantly out performing the bigger indexes.
Strong sectors include silvers, gaming, brokers, exchanges, airlines, small cap growth, metals, real estate, trannies homies and biotechs. The lagging sectors include drugs, banks and utilities.
Key stocks mainly green led by BAM FLA MS MER GS CME ICE BOT ISE AAPL INTC BIDU CSCO GE VLO TSO MRK GILD AMGN MGM WYNN LVS and INFY. Lower are PG GOOG NYX and TIF.
Biggest winners include BWLD WFR DWSN UCTT ICE S BNI TWX GM CSCO XRAY FAST WYNN TLAB CHRW and NIHD. Leading lower are GRMN CTSH LOGI SYMC BEAS NVDA SNDK WFC IBM HWCC ROCM GMR BTJ PTNR and ACH.
Market internals super strong with a net 1,660 green on the NYSE and 1,200 net green on the NAZ.
All the major index internals are close to 9/1 green to red with the NDX doing the best.
Volatility indexes down in the mid 12 area so no signals there yet as the SPX starts to make the anticipated run to the old highs (1,527 close, 1557 all time).
My suggestion, be long some futures as I anticipate those SPX highs to be taken out before long.
5.01.2007
CLOSING NUMBERS
Markets closed higher with the big winner again being the DJIA which was up about 70 while the RUT/MID groups lagged.
The DJIA is a hair off the all time record while the MID/RUT are about 2% off and the SPX about 1% lower.
Strong sectors included biotechs, wintel, utilities, drugs, semis, airlines, homies, oils, tech, retail, big caps and large cap value. Leading lower - silvers, real estate, metals, internets and exchanges.
Winners included MA C DJ DNA GILD and INFY while GS LEH LM CME NYX ICE BOT BAM FLA PG BIDU GOOG and AAPL were lower.
Interesting how the banks/tech was strong, brokers were mixed oils strong and the SPX/OEX was barely up 1/4%.
Market internals were very flat on the NAZ/NYSE while the OEX climbed to 7/3 green to red and the NDX about 65/35.
The DJIA had great internals with 26 components higher while the SPX was 3/2 up to down.
Volatility indexes gave a buy signal this morning when the market were flatted and those who dipped into the DIA/YM made some money. I suspect the rally isn't done so I am holding my longs for now. Remember, bottom line, its a bull market and their is a demand for equities.
And late breaking news, a slight majority of the Bancroft family is apparently opposing the NWS bid - any chance they want a higher price (lol). Not sure how GE will let Rupert get DJ if they want to continue with a "top flight" CNBC business network. Don't be surprised if they come in and the price eventually goes north of 70. Remember at $60 the price is $5Billion or chicken feed to NWS or GE.
TAKEOVER TUESDAY
Markets are trading in a choppy fashion with the DJIA continuing to out perform the other major indexes.
The big news of the day, a $60 bid by Rupert Murdoch and his NWS media company for DJ. Made my day temporarily as I was long a little DJ (very little).
Aside from the newspaper industry, strong sectors include biotechs, oils, utilities, drugs, gaming and large cap value. To the downside, silvers (hammered of late), reits, airlines, real estate, internets, brokers, exchanges, trannies and small caps.
Lots of red remains on the screen with MS MER GS LEH LM BSC GOOG AAPL PG MO MRK MGM CTSH CME NYX ICE BOT and ISE all trading lower. MA and WINTEL are higher.
Market internals continue weak with a net 400 losers on the NYSE and net 600 red on the NAZ.
The NDX is about 45 up and 55 down; the OEX better at about 50/50 and the SPX a hair below the flat line at 230/270.
Volatility indexes fairly flat near the 14 level and a buy signal is in place with the 2 day RSI and the over bought VIX/VXO readings.
Probably a choppy trade for the balance of the day but maybe a rally later in the week.
TECHNICALS- SPX
Markets trade generally lower on the heels of some disappointing news from PG LIZ ADM and CC. The LIZ miss was very surprising in light of the companies supposed top flight management team and outstanding long term record; and why no warning?
The RUT and the MIDS are acting especially poorly with both down over .5% while the DJIA is flat and the SPX/OEX are down about .2%.
Strongest sectors are an interesting group with drugs, big biotech, utilities and gaming leading while silvers, metals, brokers, airlines, reits, xchanges, homies and semis are all trailing.
Strong stocks include MA VLO AMGN and DNA while GOOG AAPL BIDU KLAC TSO CME NYX ICE BOT MS MER GS LEH LM BSC are all lower and some significantly red.
Market internals generally weak with a 15/35 green to red on the SPX; 4.5/5.5 green to red on the OEX and 2/3 up to down on the NDX.
The IBD 100 is more of an inidication of the overall market weakness with 25 up and 75 down. Leading higher on the IBD list are MTW ANST TNH PCLN SPTN and OYOG - leading lower are
ROCM DRQ BTJ SYNL BW EML HONG GROW and SIMO.
The NYSE internals are a bit better than 1/2 up to down while the NAZ is a bit worse.
Here we go with the buy signals- the 2 day RSI on the SPX /IWM/MDY are 9/5/5 respectively and the VIX /VXO combo are trading 12% and 11% above their respective 10 day SMA's.
So it is probably time to dip in and take some major indexes- my inclination is big caps will continue to out perform here so SPY DIA ES YM are on the buy list.
MORE APRIL STATS
Here are some numbers from the energy patch:
OIL -1.5%
VLO +37.3%
XLE +8.1%
OIH +12.1%
XTO +15.3%
The transportation sectors - all over the map:
XAL -15.2%
Trannies +10.5%
The Homie index HGX -3.5%
Finally- the tech heavy Naz indexes:
The NAZ +4.5%
The NDX +6.3%
OIL -1.5%
VLO +37.3%
XLE +8.1%
OIH +12.1%
XTO +15.3%
The transportation sectors - all over the map:
XAL -15.2%
Trannies +10.5%
The Homie index HGX -3.5%
Finally- the tech heavy Naz indexes:
The NAZ +4.5%
The NDX +6.3%
4.30.2007
APRIL PUNCHED
Here we go with the best / the worst / the most interesting for the four months through April:
In the land of market caps:
SPX +4.5%
DJIA +4.8%
OEX +3.1%
RUT2K +3.4%
MIDS +8.6%
WILSHIRE 5K +4.9%
In tech:
MSFT FLAT
AAPL +17.6%
GOOG +2.4%
HHH +13.1%
SMH +8.8%
XLK +5%
HPQ +2.3%
CSCO -1.9%
The brokers:
XBD +3.5%
MER -3.1%
GS +9.7%
The Biggest of the Big:
XOM +3.6%
GE -.9%
C -3.7%
MO +5.1%
PFE +2.2%
The metals:
GLD + 6.1%
SLV +3.7%
SSRI +18.5%
PAAS +12.2%
Real Estate:
BAM +20.7%
SLG +6.1%
IYR +3.4%
Gaming stocks:
DWCGAM FLAT
MGM +17.3%
WYNN +8.9%
LVS -4.8%
Foreign Stuff:
RWX +8.5%
EWA +15.3%
CTSH +15.9%
INFY -4.1%
Growth V Value:
Large Cap Growth +4.1%
Small Cap Growth +9.5%
Large Cap Value +4%
Small Cap Value +4.1%
TECHNICALS VIX/SPX
Well I didn't exactly hit it out of the park today but well we will see from here. The bad news is the RUT/MID got crushed with both those being the worst of the major indexes (RUT -1.85% and MID -1.45%). The DJIA was the best performer down only .45%.
All sectors were weak with the silvers, homies, small caps, real estate, metals, reits, trannies and biotechs being the worst.
Market internals were weak all day and really dipped in the early afternoon. The NYSE was red by 1,500 and the NAZ was red 1,265.
The internals on the NDX were awful with 1 up to every 10 down while the OEX was about 1 up to 5 down.
Key stocks were generally all lower with the worst being GS CME BSC MS MA GOOG RIMM BIDU OIH MGM LVS CTSH and TXT.
The good news, the Volatility indexes soared and the VIX/VXO combo now trade at/near the magic 10% above the 10 day SMA level. So if the markets dip again tomorrow, it may be time to reload on the major indexes.
BAM BAM
A boring day but could end up being one of those "if they can't get em down" days (they take em up).
Strong sectors include banks, oils, brokers, large cap value, real estate and utilities. Lower are gaming, homies, silvers, trannies and defense.
Market internals, mixed with the NYSE a bit better than the NAZ.
The OEX internals are about 5.5/4.5 green to red while the NDX is 4/6 up to down. The big cappers also continue to out perform as the RUT and the MID remain in the red.
Winners include MER LM CME NYX ICE BOT ISE C JPM BAC MA BAM AAPL BIDU KLAC and AMGN while GS MS BSC TGT KSS GOOG IBN DNA GILD MRK trade red.
IBD 100 stocks trade net red but winners are GROW SIMO JST ROCM TSO AZZ and DWSN while losers include MTOX CF EDU AQNT WCG and SYNL.
It seems like I have been banging the drum on VLO and BAM for quite a while and they both look to be at new all time highs today.
THE OPEN
Markets open mixed with the Big Cap OEX index acting best while the "TECH HEAVY" NAZ/NDX is acting the worst. The midcaps and Russell 2k are continuing their recent under performance.
Strong sectors include banks, Xchanges, utlities, oils, real estate, defense and large cap value. Weakest links include silver stocks, emerging markets, metals, internets, semis, brokers, biotechs, trannies and small caps.
Key stocks are mixed with C JPM MA MER CME ICE BOT ISE GOOG AAPL KLAC and MSFT all higher while GS LEH LM BSC MS INTC and CSCO are all lower.
Market internals are mixed on the NYSE while they are weak on the NAZ.
The OEX shows about 2 up to 3 down while the NDX is a bit worse at 3 up to 7 down.
Big winners include NVDA DELL AKAM TLAB LOGI PTEN AMGN XRX C PG and BHI while biggest losers include HIG WY LTD TGT AA INTC CSC NIHD MCHP ADBE CDNS SEPR and TEVA.
IBD winners include ROCM SPTN SIMO GROW and ICE while MTOX CF WFR WCG VSEA FLIR and AQNT are the biggest losers.
Volatility indexes nowhere as the VIX/VXO combo trades up about 3%.
The morning action seems very uninspiring and a later day lift seems more likely than not.
PRE MARKET
Markets are set top open flat as crude/metals tick higher while the foreign markets are trading higher.
Notable additions on the IBD 100 include AAPL and PTI while the top 5 include BTJ MTOX SYNL VSEA and GROW.
Stocks on the list that look interesting on pullbacks include HWCC CNH TEX COH NOV TSO GILD GRP CAM and MTW.
Gapping up this AM - NGA CRNT XFML RSH VSH HERO and BEAV; gapping down- IBN.
Fianlly, Deutsche Borse AG apparently interested in a $67.5 bid for ISE (last trade $45.72); could make for an interesting day for the xchanges.
My market expectation are plain and simple- higher prices as I anticipate we move up to the old SPX closing highs from March 2000 near 1,527 and eventually to the inter day high near 1,558.