THE FINAL SHOT

Anyone who took that KISS trade- congrats as it set up perfectly- and to John McCain and friends sending Sarah under the bus - what about the bus they could have been sending all of us under.

THE KISS

A little busy this morning as I am going away early tomorrow and wont be back until Tuesday-

FWIW- the best day trade continues to be pretty pretty simple- on up days the markets seem to close at/near the highs and on down days they seem to close at/near the lows- in the what ever is working now KISS theory of trading.

UGLY IS UGLY

DJIA -500, NAZ 98 and SPX -53 and at/near the 955 50% retrace level.

A not so great welcome for the new President but there was a pretty good run up in the weeks before the election when his win was baked in the cake.

NYSE- 1880 net losers;

NAZ- 1666 net losers;

Biggest sector losers- emerging markets, real estate, banks, homies and brokers.

VIX- up 15% at 55;

OK that was a day I spent sitting on my hands with hardly a trade- as usual tomorow will be interesting to see if the dippers show - wouldn't be surprising.

COMMODITY HUNT

Markets continue to trade lower with the DJIA -300, NAZ 55 and SPX -30.

All the sectors followed are red with bio, ags, oils, small caps and utils acting best and gaming, real estate and emerging markets the worst.

NYSE- 1565 net losers;

NAZ- 1400 net losers;

VIX- higher by 10% at 52.4;

Very light volume with down out pacing up by 8x;

Gold trading at/near $740 and appears to not want to go down much from here and looking to scale in near these levels with stops under the recent lows- Seems like a good risk/reward play.

Crude also seems to have found a bottom as it too doesn't seem to want to go down much from these levels.

THE SELLOFF

Markets are trading lower on the heels of the democratic win - the DJIA -165, NAZ 27 and SPX - 17.

Strongest sectors- biotech, internets, shipping, banks, ags and large cap value while emerging markets, metals, real estate and oil service lag.

NYSE- 1500 net losers;

NAZ- 980 net losers;

NDX- 15 GREEN;

OEX- 15 GREEN;

DJIA -GM JPM GE all green while BA AA DD UTX C HPQ lag red.

VIX- up 5% at 50;

Down volume 5X the up;

Gold -$755 down 8;

Crude $69 down almost $2;

RSI (2) indicators starting to work again as the over bought indicators yesterday (95+) were a pretty pretty good sell signal.

Also seems like the big volatility is gone so buying lower and selling higher may be back in business.

Winters from WGRNX with his buy list from an article this morning.

Poll results- the winner probably Rasmussen - but ZOGBY and HOTLINE were also pretty good- WSJ CBS a bit wide.

This fish -not bad at 350 EV's and 52/45;

6:30 UPDATE

PER THE DRUDGE REPORT:

EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG

INTRADE - 94/6

CLOSING BOOM

Quite a rally as the afternoon sell off was bought quickly and heavily as the markets did what they are supposed to do - close strong days at the highs.

Strong sectors- metals, oils, emerging markets, ags and shipping while biotech, small caps, drugs and gaming lagged.

NYSE- 1770 net winners;

NAZ- 800 net winners;

NDX- 80 GREEN;

OEX- 95 GREEN;

DJIA- 29 GREEN - WINNERS- CAT GE CVX VZ UTX HD C TA AA AXP;

VIX- down 11% at 47.7;

Up volume 8x the down;

RSI (2) levels- a bit over bought-

SPX 95

DJIA 97

NAZ- 98

NDX 98

RUT 97

MID 97

Pretty clear we are in over bought territory and a pull back later in the week should be expected. Gold /Crude also ripping higher so just maybe the liquidity hits everything at the same time.

I am liking gold here on a pullback DGP GLD etc.

Marketwatch checklist for a recovery;

Barry with some great charts;

And finally- from the gamblers- Obama at 92.5% to win and McCain- 7.5%;

AFTERNOON LULL

Off the highs but still pretty pretty good as the DJIA is +260, NAZ +50 and SPX +34.

Strong- metals, oils, ags, emerging markets and telecom while biotech, small caps, drugs and utils lag.

NYSE- 1800 net green;

NAZ- 870 net green;

NDX- 80 GREEN;

OEX- 96 GREEN;

DJIA -29 GREEN;

VIX- 46.3 and down 13.75%;

Up volume about 8x down;

Roger with some election day thoughts - and agreeing with him on the eventual turn;

Nouriel on China;

The worst of times from BESPOKE;

The October surprise;

And the morning parrot still waiting for the tightening;

Looks like the market has been temporarily rejected at the SPX 1K number but I suspect that gets taken out before long and then next intermediate stopping point appears to be near the 1050 line.

THE OPEN

Markets are moving on up and buying the dips looks like the trade for the day (its early)- as the DJIA +200, NAZ +27 and SPX +25.

Strong sectors- metals, oils, ags, emerging markets and telecom while biotech, retail, small caps and gaming lag.

NYSE- 1540 net winners;

NAZ- 735 net winners;

NDX- 75 GREEN;

OEX- 95 GREEN;

DJIA -28 GREEN;

VIX- down another 11% at/near 48;

WINNERS- GE C T MA NOV HIG BHI NYX HAL RF S EXPD VMED FWLT MRVL RYAAY LOGI HOLX MICC

GOLD- 740+ 2.7%;

Crude- $67+ 4.75%;

Looking for long setups for a day trade with SSO DIG DDM- just worried about today-

Voted took about 30 seconds as there was zero line and the poll guy told me "25% of the gang has already voted by 10."

PRE OPEN

Futures markets trading way up in anticipation of no voting irregularities and the hope of election results finalized before the start of midnight.

A video from Mike Santoli of Barrons on why the markets can rally and I suspect some folks are starting to focus on the $2 drop in gasoline which for a 20,000 mile a year driver could save $2,000 per - and with a similar drop in heating oil - the consumer may have some extra dough to do some holiday shopping. I never under estimate the shopping drive of the American consumer.

Two shockers yesterday- the ISM index coming in at the worst number ever and auto sales in October about the worst since World War II- and the markets barely flinched. And of course more bailouts to be announced.

And of course Morris still waiting for the quake, and Limbaugh out on the limb while Rove is a hair more realistic- we will see.

This fish standing by the 52/45 of the other day.

Finally- I suspect Sarah has had her 15 minutes and we will hear little from her in the future.

THE CLOSE

A first rate snoozefest as most are awaiting tomorrow's election- the DJIA -5, NAZ+5 and SPX -2.5.

Strong sectors included telecom, shipping, biotech, ags and banks while oils, gaming, real estate and retail lagged.

NYSE- 400 net green;

NAZ- 330 net green;

NDX- 55 GREEN;

OEX- 45 GREEN;

VIX - down 10% at near 54;

Very light volume with up and down about the same;

So a snoozefest as all await the big news tomorrow - so probably another slow day tomorrow too-

Continuing t to watch the UYG as I suspect that will where the action is later in the week- in the mean time rest up for Wednesday.

THE SNOOZE

Markets are chopping around with out much direction although they continue to be higher. The DJIA +22, NAZ +14 and SPX flat.





Strong groups include telecom, metals, shipping, ags and biotech while oils, gaming, retail and real estate lag.





NYSE- 600 net winners;


NAZ- 600 net winners;


NDX- 60 GREEN;


OEX- 50 GREEN;





VIX- down 8% at/near 55;





Up volume a hair better than down;

GS - the only interesting thing on the screen as Bove downgrades the stock and tags an $80 target on it.

Not much else happening as most seem to be a the edge of their chairs waiting for the first election returns- gamblers not so much as McCain is now at about 11/1 to lose on intrade.





Some interesting stuff this morning - the Kiplinger 25- not such a great year- and what happened to the best and the brightest?

THE OPEN

Markets open higher but feels like it wont hold or rip higher with the DJIA +25, NAZ +11 and SPX +1.

Strong sectors include shipping, telecom, ags, metals and biotech while oils, real estate, banks and homies lag.

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 660 net winners;

NDX- 70 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

VIX - down 3% at/near 58;

Up and down volume about equal;

ISM the worst since reporting began in 1998 at 38.9 v 41 consensus;

Looking for a choppy day as the markets has been up pretty far of late- so looking for some shorts as the morning moves out DUG QID DXD.

THE MORNING LINE

The final day of politics and the race looks to be widening for the Obama team. How so:

ZOGBY (51/44) +7;

Gallup (55/44) +11;

NBC WSJ (51/43) +8;

CBS (54/41) +13

Lots of talking heads (MSM) still yapping about the tightness of the race in the battleground states as indicated by Mason Dixon polls last week. I find it hard to believe that states won't widen out with the nationals - and the gamblers- yes - also widening out to 89.5/10.5 on both Intrade and IEM - McCain's worse numbers yet.

And all the undecided voters that were supposed to break for McCain- not that many especially with OBAMA over 50 in all the polls.

So Morning Joe either trying to keep the audience interested or no common sense trying to justify tight state polls from a week ago as good news for McCain while more recent National polls showing Obama widening the gap. Why believe your lying brain?

Break in Here are the newest state polls- shocking!!!

THE SEISMIC

Saturday morning and Dick Morris reviews the Zogby polling and determines the following:

Dick Morris tells Newsmax that Friday night's polling for Zogby of 1,000 likely voters shows a huge shift for John McCain.

Zogby's poll, conducted on Friday night only, has McCain at 48 percent and Obama, at 47 percent.

Zogby's overall poll has Obama with a lead, but that's based on a three-day average that includes Wednesday and Thursday polling data.

"There is a seismic shift for McCain," Morris told Newsmax. "It could turn into an earthquake this weekend."

The Zogby poll for Saturday released early Sunday morning:

Pollster John Zogby:

"Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

So much for seismic shifts.

Other rolling polls the last four days- all with Obama in the lead:

Rasmussen (+5) (+5) (+4) (+5)

Zogby (+6) (+5) (+7) (+5)

Hotline (+5) (+7) (+7) (+7)

Gallup (+8) (+10) (+8) (+5)

IBD TIPP (+2) (+5) (+4) (+4)

Intrade odds at McCain at 12% v 88% for Obama (Iowa EM the same odds) with some important state odds as follows:

Colorodo 86/12 Obama;

Florida 70/34 Obama;

Georgia 71/26 McCain;

Indiana 59/45 McCain;

Iowa 95/7 Obama;

Missouri 52/49 McCain;

North Carolin 62/38 Obama;

Ohio 78/23 Obama;

Pennsylvania 88/10 Obama;

Virginia 84/15 Obama;