Trying to predict what will happen in the financial markets over 12 month periods is not a great idea in my opinion and folks who got it right last year will no doubt get it wrong next year.
So where will the major market indexes end on December 31, 2007? I have no idea but I do know that there will excellent times to buy and sell - witness AAPL from yesterday and Wednesday.
Where will the price of oil be at year end 2007? I have no idea, but I do suspect there will be times to buy the commodity and the XLE/OIH etf's - I suspect buying the stocks/etf's when the price of oil dips to the mid 50's will be a good time to buy and a lift in price to the mid to high 70's will be a good time to sell.
The price of gold and silver is a little different scenario in my view as I suspect the dollar will fall over the long term as wealth is transferred from this country to the BRIC folks and the dollar will become less desirable. Witness the other day when one of the Middle East courntries decided to reduce the amount of dollars they carry in favor of Euros. They will not be the last and as the dollar goes down the prices of metals and oil will increase in dollar terms.
For those looking for long term investments in stocks, I have no idea as I use mutual funds for most long term investing. Which ones; generally value funds that don't have wide swings with big down years and long tenures by the same manager/managers such as:
TAVFX +15% YTD and +14% 5 year record.
TWEIX +20% YTD and +14% 5 year record.
ARTQX +15% YTD and +17% 5 year record.
FAGIX (high yield bond fund) +13% YTD and 13% 5 year record.
OAKGX +25% YTD and +19% 5 year record.
OAKLX +14% YTD and +8% 5 year record.
QFVOX +30% YTD and 24% 5 year record.
TASCX +12% YTD and 13% 5 year record.
For precious metals, I own VGPMX which is closed to new investors but has a great long term record. Look for it when it opens.
I also own MQIFX and MDISX, two Mutual Series Funds that were grandfathered into low expenses when Michael Price sold his funds to Franklin. They have done great in up and down markets but the low expense feature is closed to new investors.