5.25.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets closed near their highs with the DJIA +66, NAZ +19 and SPX +8.


Strongest sectors included oils, metals, tech, small cap growth and biotechs. On the weakside were brokers, airlines, utilities, gaming, retail and homies.


Big winners included ORCL GOOG AA NSM XOM ATI PDCO RIMM MICC BEAS BIIB INFY AAPL PTI FTK MTL SNHY and VIP.


Big losers PTNR NGA PCR EML CELG VOLV ARO TWIN HD MER SO EXC WB WYNN GENZ GRMN FLEX and JNPR.


Market internals were good all day with the NYSE showing 1,300 net winners and about 900 net green on the NAZ.


The NDX/OEX both showed about 3 up to every 1 down.


Volatility indexes down about 6% on the day and back under the 10 day SMA's.


Well if we get some mergers or private equity take outs over the weekend we may get back to the old highs before mid week. Also watch the interest rates as the 10 year now at 4.861% is starting to cause a stir. My guess, a temporary stir.


NOON LOOK


Markets continue to act "funky" with many cross currents causing some odd statistics. The DJIA is +30, NAZ +12.5 and SPX +4.


I call it funky because the markets are up led by NAZ and small caps with banks and brokers mainly lower. That does not bode well IMVHO even though the internals are pretty good. Tech acts pretty well led by GOOG AAPL BIDU MSFT INTC and TXN. So more selling may occur today but I think it looks pretty good for next week.


Strong sectors include software, oils, metals, defense, tech and small cap growth. Leading lower are gaming, homies, airlines, brokers, banks, retail and drugs.


Strong stocks include ORCL GOOG NSM KO NSM CBS ATI PDCO BEAS MICC INFY ATVI RIMM PTI MTL NILE SNHY VIP and CMG.


Weak sisters include TBSI PTNR PCR RRRST VOLV CELG HD SO EXC AEP MER WYNN JNPR ROST GRMN QCOM and AMZN.


Market internals are strong but well off their best levels. The NYSE has 965 net green and the NAZ about 540 to the green.


The OEX /NDX both have about 7 shares up for each 3 lower.


Trading Markets has another article up relating to the 2 day RSI trading method with their stats. Anyone who may be interested can track these stocks as buys with 2 day RSI readings less than 2:


MRVL SNDK WB CLB and a slew of utility companies.


Stocks with 2 day RSI readings over 98 include:


EMC TGT PDCO XMSR MW LIZ RX SLM KMI and SIRI.



THE OPEN

Markets open higher on the heels of some over sold conditions and more merger news as Vitamin Water goes Coke.

Strong sectors include silvers (after being crushed yesterday), oils, real estate, metals,software, defense, tech, small cap growth, semis and trannies; worst include gaming, banks, airlines and brokers.

Key stocks generally higher led by BOT NYX BAM SLG ASN AAPL BIDU GOOG INTC TXN VLO FTO CAM TSO SGP DNA and INFY. Reds include BSC MER C BAC KSS TIF CLX MO MGM LVS WYNN GILD and MRK.

Market internals are very strong on the NYSE and NAZ with a net 1,560 green on the NYSE and 800 net green on the NAZ.

The OEX /NDX show about 80/20 green to red on the OEX and 70/30 on the NDX.

Volatility indexes lower by about 4% in front of the long three day weekend and back down to the mid 13 level and at/near their 10 day SMA's.

A little nervous here as financials/brokers are not participating in this rally and are trading mixed to red.

5.24.2007

BUY SIGNALS


Well that was an ugly reversal as the DJIA was up close to 100 early and closed down 85 and was still the best performing major market index (big caps of course).

Strongest sectors were wheat, corn, soybeans, biotechs, airlines and retail while metals, utilities, software, semis, oils, brokers, xchanges, real estate, tech, gaming and small caps acted the worst.

And what happened to the famous "the market are rallying on the heels of lower crude." Well not exactly as the SPX dropped 15 points while crude was lower by $1.37 or 2%. That is supposed to be good for equities. Sure.

Big cap winners included PDCO LRCX RIMM SEPR UAUA ESRX BA WMT EMC TGT and GOOG.

Big losers -AES EXC AEP ATI F ETR SLB INTC GM MMM NTAP MICC VMED JOYG ERTS and BRCM.

IBD 100 had 10 out of 100 in the green led by EML PCR RIMM CMG WCG GSOL and PTI while NGA EDU SYNL HDNG TWIN and BTJ were crushed.

Market internals turned ugly early and closed with about 3,700 more losers than winners on the NYSE and NAZ and the OEX closed with 3 down to every 1 up while the NDX was worse at 17 up and 83 down.

Volatility indexes a little consolation as the VIX traded up to 14.08 or 6.3% while the VXO was up 8% to 13.81.

Signals, ah yes, we have them - Buy signals- The SPX closed with a 2 day RSI under 7 while the DJIA had a reading under 8; and the QQQQ around 9. The rule of thumb is to buy (scale) when they get a reading under 10 and sell when they get above 70 or better yet, trail them.
Lots of talk about rising rates as the housing market may be recovering but not to be today as the 10 year Bond closed at 4.857% rate, a hair lower than yesterday.
The VIX/VXO signals have not hit as they trade about 5% above their respective SMA's. The rule of thumb is to buy when they trade 10% above their 10 day SMA's.
I am still long futures although did trim some stocks over the past few days. I guess I should have stuck with my original plan of sell into the tag at SPX 1,528 but so it goes.
Anyhow, the pullback is close to the SPX 21 day EMA and that area may find some buying interest over the next few days. Remember, buying pullbacks has worked very well over the last 4 years and I suspect it will be no different this time.

UGLY NOON


Markets have flipped lower on the heels of the Bush news conference, well maybe not, but the action is quite different than what we have seen of late as volatility and lower prices have returned.

Market internals have flipped ugly also and the NYSE now shows 750 gainers and 2,315 losers while the NAZ is at 700 green and 2,150 red.

The 2 day RSI on the SPX has also reached buy territory with a reading of 11 and the VIX now trades about 3% above the 10 day SMA.

One troubling sector, the semis, which started breaking down about 10 days ago and now trades about 5% off their highs. Not sure if its time to buy them but the sidelines may be a good place for now.

And if anyone is interested I just finished Curtis Faith's new book, Way of the Turtle, which is terrific. The turtle trading system is explained in great detail as well as their money management and position sizing methods.




POST OPEN


Markets open higher with the big caps leading which is right in line with what every CNBC TV guru says of late.


Strongest sectors include oils, internets, airlines, retail, trannies small cap growth and homies; leading lower are utilities, biotechs, drugs, small cap value and tech.


Key stocks generally higher with GS C TIF BIDU GOOG AAPL VLO TSO XTO DNA FDX solidly green and PVH JOE BAM JPM CME ICE NYX NMX all red.


Big cap winners include BA EMC HNZ BHI AA S EK DELL PDCO RIMM UAUA ISRG LOGI EBAY and AMZN.


Losers include NTAP MRVL XMSR ROST VRTX ABT TWX ATI HIG GM ETR INTC MR TBSI CTRP ICE PTNR PCLN and TWIN.


Market internals have flipped to green after opening pretty ugly. The NYSE has 300 net winners while the NAZ has about 150. Much better numbers on the major indexes with the OEX at 80/20 up to down while the NDX is at 70/30.


The IBD 100 is led by RIMM PCR CRDN BTJ CHE ISDA AND VSEA and shows about 75 up and 25 down.


Volatility indexes down about 1.5% and with out signals.


The markets have moved higher as I have typed with the DJIA now +80 and the SPX +6. I will go out on a limb and say the demand for equities trumps just about all other theories and it will keep the markets moving higher.


In addition, from watching markets over many years, comments like those from Greenie yesterday do not generally have much staying power and usually are good buying opportunities.


5.23.2007

THE CLOSE


Major market indexes sold off this afternoon on the heels of some statements from former Fed head Alan Greenspan regarding anticipated problems with the Chinese markets.


The DJIA closed -18, NAZ -11 and SPX -2 and a full 6 points below the all time closing high.


Strong sectors included metals, oils, brokers, retail, biotech and trannies; leading lower were semis, gaming, airlines, utilities, real estate, defense and small cap growth.


Big winners included NGA BWLD DXPE SNHY CENX MDT AA ROK AES S GRMN NIHD ISRG BIIB AMGN and BRCM.


Losers- MXIM LLTC CTSH QCOM NVDA AKAM JOYG MTOX SPTN VCLK EDU GME PTI CSC NSM MCD and TXN.


Volatility indexes ticked up with the VIX busting through 13 and the VXO near there.


Probably get a bounce tomorrow as comments like these from Greenie are generally quickly forgotten and dismissed.


MID DAY


Markets continue to trade higher but are not making much progress as they have flat lined from the opening. The SPX is +6, DJIA 45 and NAZ +9.


Strong sectors include metals, oils, internets, retail, brokers, real estate, trannies, consumers, large cap growth, tch and biotech; leading lower are semis, utilities, airlines and defense.


Market internals have fallen off since the opening ramp and the NYSE now trades with 700 net green while the NAZ is about 500 net winners.


The OEX is very strong with 77 up and 23 down while the NDX has about 7 up for every 3 lower. The SPX with about 340 up and 160 down while the IBD 100 has 65 in the green.


Big winners include IDSA NGA DXPE GSOL RS SNHY MDT AA SLB TGT ROK S LTD AMZN ISRG GRMN NIHD LVLT and EXPE.


Big losers include LLTC MXIM CTSH NVDA TLAB QCOM CSC NSM CPB HON MCD DOW BMY SPTN GME CPA PTI SYNL and PTI.


Volatility indexes near the 12.5 level and down about 2 or 3%.


The internals on the OEX are leading me to believe that a decent will take place before the day is over. The semis are still a fly but the other signals will probably over ride.

THE OPEN


Lots of giddiness as the markets open higher and the SPX trades above its all time CLOSING high of 1,528+. Of course the question is, where will it close?


Anyhow, strong sectors include silvers (buy the pullbacks on SSRI?), metals, retail, homies, brokers, oils, real estate, biotechs, internets large cap growth and small caps. Laggards inlcude semis and defense.


Key stocks generally higher with GS LM MA BAM SLG AA MDT TGT CAT COP HAL GOOG AAPL BIIB ISRG GRMN AMZN all higher while LLTC MXIM CTSH CHKP INFY XLNX ERTS

HON NSM CSC TXN DELL and DOW all trade lower.


Market internals are strong with about 1,180 net green on the NYSE and 660 net green on the NAZ.


The OEX is about 4/1 ups to downs while the NDX is a hair over 50/50. The SPX has about 350 up and 150 down.


IBD 100 has about 70 up and 30 down with NGA CNS TBSI GSOL DXPE BWLD RS and EML leading and SPTN GME VCLK CYNO NILE EDU and ICE lagging.


Volatility indexes are lower with the VIX near the 12.5 level and about 5% under its 10 day SMA.


Fly in the ointment today are the SEMIS which are trading down more than .5% and the SMH is lower by almost a full percent to $36.94.


My take, we will continue to bounce around as this just doesn't look like we will bust through today.

5.22.2007

THE CLOSE


Another day and another rejection at SPX 1,528 as the markets trade up to that level and can't seem to get through. My guess is we will get through eventually and it probably won't take 7 years and change to do it.


The DJIA closed +2.5, the NAZ +10 and the SPX flat- the RUT another record as it closes up .75%, the big winner on the day.


The oils were sold most of the day and some of those stocks may be ripe for buying as I doubt many of those E and P companies stay independent for long. Who? DVN APA APC PXD XTO RRC BRY. There are probably worse guys to invest side by side with than Scott Black.


Strongest sectors included gaming, airlines, homies, real estate, small caps, biotechs, semis and small cap value; laggards were metals, oils, defense, retail, utilities, large caps and utilities.


Big winners included MGM WYNN LVS TBSI CPLA RIMM CYNO UEIC BUD XRX DELL INTC TYC CTXS LVLT and UAUA.


Big losers were MNST SPLS DISH NIHD SNDK HON ATI EP AEP BNI GD ABT SNHY GSOL MTL EOC CLB LFL and STLD.


Market internals were all over the board with the NYSE closing green by 220 and the NAZ green by over 800.


The big cap indexes, not so good with the OEX closing with 40 out of 100 green and the NDX with an even amount of winners and losers. The SPX also about flat between winners and losers.


Volatility indexes closed lower with the VIX now trading at the 13 level and the VXO at 12.4. Both about 5% under their 10 day SMA's.


In addition to the overhead resistance at 1,528 on the SPX, the long bond closed at a rate 4.831% and may have caused some of the sell off as fixed income provides a little alternative to overbought stocks at these levels.


I have also mentioned quite a few times that these levels may be sell areas for some and a pullback here would not be a complete surprise. But the dip is for buying as we eventually get there and probably bust through with some pretty good momentum.


MORNING TAKE


Markets are chopping around and every one's favorite Big Cap index can't seem to get past the 1,528 level or the old closing highs set back in March of 2000.


Strong sectors include gaming, oils, biotech, airlines, real estate and small cap growth. Leading lower are defense, internets, retail, trannies, banks consumers and semis.


Key stocks are mixed with MGM WYNN LVS NMX NYX ICE CME BOT GS LEH BSC MA C BAC JOE CTSH VSL DNA MRK GOOG AAPL all green while YHOO AMZN UPS FDX AMGN GILD TXT LM MER MS JPM SLG are all red.


Market internals are flat on the NYSE and NAZ but red on the big cap indexes, OEX/NDX, as each shows about 3 up for every 7 lower.


The IBD 100 is better (speculation) with about 55 up and 45 down.


Big cap winners include CSC AA GOOG COP TGT LEH WYNN LVLT MGM RIMM CELG and UAUA. Losers include SPLS MNST SNDK DISH NTAP PCAR BMY ABT GD LTD BDK and BNI.


Volatility indexes dipping a little and trade about 5% below their respective 10 day SMA's. Rule of thumb is that its tough for the markets to make much progress when they are more than 5% below their 10 day SMA's.






PRE MARKET


Markets are set to open near the flat line and it will be interesting to see what happens if the SPX approaches the 1,528 level again.


Be aware that the markets are overbought with the 2 day RSI on the SPX at 93; IWM at 87; DJIA at 77; QQQQ at 86 and the OIH XLE combo as overbought as I have seen as both have 99 readings for the last two days.


Finally, looks like Captain Kirk is helping out the MGM longs a bit today (+25%) with his quest for strategic alternatives and higher prices (he owns over 50% of the company). I mentioned it a few weeks ago as the gaming stocks were out of favor for a bit and bought it as it was trading down in the low 60's; also funny to read the comments on that post.


5.21.2007

SELL MORTIMER SELL


We had the second run into the 1,527 level on the SPX and it was tagged and sold and tomorrow just may bring Turnaround Tuesday. The DJIA lagged while the RUT and the MIDs out performed as they did on Friday.


Strongest sectors inlcuded internets, homies, oils, small caps, metals, biotechs, and brokers while airlines, drugs, consumers, trannies and retail lagged.


Market internals were much better than the indexes as the NYSE closed with 630 net winners and the NAZ with 1,000 net green.


The NDX internals were very strong with 7 up for every 3 down while the OEX was evenly split between winners and losers.


Volatility indexes closed mixed with the VIX up to about 13.2 and the VXO flat at 12.4.


I am still long NQ YM and ES futures and expect (hope) to add when/if the market dips.


AFTERNOON TELL


Usually its the DJIA out performing and the NAZ lagging but not today. The NAZ is +21, DJIA +11 and the SPX +4.


Strongest sectors include internets, reits, metals, homies, oils, real estate, small caps and tech while drugs, airlines, banks, consumers and trannies lag.


Big winners include VCLK CLRK CPLA GSOL DXPE EDU VMED AMZN LVLT AMLN JOYG WMB S EK COP MRK and LEH-


Big losers- MDT CL ABT AA CSC KO SLE MNST COST INFY ERIC MRVL SHLD MTL VOLV NILE TSSI IDSA and BTJ.


Market internals remain very bullish as the NYSE is +700 green and the NAZ +1,100.


The OEX about 55/45 green to red while the NDX acts best with 3/1 ups to down.


Volatility indexes continue to trade near the flat line at the 12.5 levels. Interesting how they were near the 9.5 level when the markets were much lower.


Not sure who, but some CNBC guest mentioned that the Big Caps have been out performing for about "eight or nine months." Well not to throw cold water on some one's chart reading, but the MID's are up about 13% on the year while the SPX is up less than 8% and the real big caps, the OEX, + 6%. Also, congrats to the CNBC crew whose GE stock just broke even for the year.


PRE NOONER


Seems like I have been yapping about a SPX new closing high for an eternity but I guess today I can declare victory as we have gotten with in a half of a point. The question, what now and I suspect a pull back before we get to the next target which is the all time high at 1,557.


Anyhow, the RUT is the big winner today as it trades up almost 1% while the big cap DJIA trades near the flat line.


Strongest sectors include semis, internets, homies, reits, small caps, metals, biotech, small cap value, brokers and tech while utilities, banks, consumers, airlines and retail lag.


Key stocks have turned generally higher led by ICE NYX BOT MS LEH BSC MA BAM SLG ASN JOE FCE.A MCRI WYNN DNA BIIB SGP and AMZN- Lower are FDX EWA EFA AZN SYK LVS INFY CTSH NMX CME and C.


The DJIA shows about 18 up and 12 down with DIS MO MSFT HPQ GE and PFE the biggest gainers while AA DD WMT UTX KO MCD and IBM lag.


Market internals are solidly green with the NAZ net 1,000 green and the NYSE net 660 to the plus side.


The OEX is about 60/40 up to down while the NDX is very bullish with 75 up to 25 down.


IBD 100 better yet with 4 up to each one lower.


Biggest winners on the NDX include VMED AMZN VRSN JOYG SIRI LVLT XMSR and SEPR while MNST INFY INTU TEVA MRVL SUNW CTSH and COST lag.


Volatility indexes trade with the DJIA and near the flat line. They started the week trading about 5% below their respective 10 day SMA's.





THE OPEN



Markets open mixed with the NAZ/NDX/SPX/RUT/MIDs higher while the DJIA is lower.





Strongest sectors include oils, internets, semis, biotechs and small cap growth.





Worst include brokers, airlines, banks cyclicals and metals.





Key stocks are mixed with ICE ISE NYX WYNN MGM SYK DNA AAPL AMGN SGP AMZN EBAY higher while GS LM MER CME NMX MS BOT MA GOOG lower.





Market internals are green with both the NYSE and NAZ net 300 green.





The IBD 100 is very strong with about 85 up to 15 down led by VCLK NGA MTOX DXPE WNR BIDU BAP and PTI. Lower are BTJ CRDN MTL SYNL WCG UEIC and NILE.





The NDX/OEX/SPX are each about split evenly between gainers and losers.





Big cap winners include VMED AMZN MICDC SIRI MXIM VRSN WMB CPB COP EP S MO and AMGN- Losers- CI MDT AA RF HON CL MER DD SLE ABT MNST INTU LOGI GENZ YHOO and CTSH.



Volatility indexes higher by about 2% which is typical as a whole 5 trading days sit right in front of the screens.

My take, higher as we probably get to the 1,527 level over the next few days- wow a whole 4 points on the SPX level as I type. And never a mention that the all time high on the SPX at 1,552+. I guess its better for ratings at 1,527.

5.20.2007

MAJOR MARKET TECHNICALS







Looks like the major large cap market indexes continue to be in nice up trends with some catch up work ahead for the RUT and the MID.
The 2 day RSI on the DJIA stand at 94, the SPX at 90, the MID at 89 and the RUT at 71.

The RUT hit its all time high back on May 9 at 837 and is a bit less than 2% off that high. The MIDs also hit their highs on the same day but practically traded at the level on Friday.

The VIX/VXO (12.5) combo trade about 5% below their respective 10 day SMA's but far above their recent lows in the mid 9's. Not sure why they are higher now than they were when the SPX was about 100 points lower back in mid December, but I bet I am not the only one shaking their head about it.

The markets are playing out the way I expected, new closing high on the SPX about 5 points away and all time highs about 30 away- So maybe this will be the week; probably some selling if the numbers get tagged - but any sell off from there is probably another buying opportunity.