CLOSING UGLY

Equity markets closed lower after tanking in the last 45 minutes of trading- not sure what happened but we went from the highs of the day to the lows - SPX -1, NAZ -3 and DJIA -15.

Strong sectors- ags, junk, energy, metals and retail while real estate, banks, fins and small caps lagged.

Internals were pretty flat at the close while the SPX had 277 green and the NDX with 52 positive.

Volume very light at about 1B shares traded and downside volume finally winning the day.

VIX up 4% at 32.63;

Gold silver crude euro wheat and corn all higher while the dollar and bonds were lower.

Dont know where all the sellers came from in the last 45 minutes but it did surprise me in light of the little ramp to the highs before the push lower. I did not do one trade today and pretty happy about it.

Looking to buy back some DBA/TBT for a longer term hold - just need a pull back first -

Some fine links going into the long weekend:

Jeff Macke gone from CNBC and by the comments it appears most prefer him to CNBC- he is good guy and I wish him well;

NATGAS telling a different story from rude crude;

Kass with the revenge - hmmm;

Cheney- not such great publicity;

BESPOKE on the pullback;

Reflation trade portfolio;

And some weekend amusement;

LOUSY LUCK

Markets are trading higher and less chop than I expected - and couldn't even take advantage as Tradestation had some connectivity issues - or I did.

Anyhow, SPX +5, NAZ +8 and DJIA +50.

Strong sectors- ags, energy, metals, brokers and retail while banks, real estate, telecom and bonds lag.

NYSE- 600 net green;

NAZ- 440 net green;

NDX- 63 GREEN;

SPX- 350 GREEN;

VIX- lower by 2% at 30.65;

Looking for some entries on the long side QLD/SSO/DIG- and will be quick - looking for entries near the pivot or the 20 EMA- wiht very tight stops-

And Mets Sox tonight- 1986 anyone?

COMMODITY RIP

Equity futures are trading higher this morning but off their best levels- however commodities may be the real story as the grains are all up another 1% or so while Silver is higher by about 2%- gold also higher at $959.

The dollar lower again and knocking on the 80 door on the DXY index- the EURO knocking on 140 door.

Zero Hedge on the vanishing volume;

Trader Mike looking at the lower high and the areas of support;

Geithner on why we won't lose the AAA- and Bill Gross on yes we will;

GM - Bankrupt next 10 days?

Dr. Brett - tracking transitions;

Dougie Kass - sideways correction;

Gallup poll on how the recession is impacting summer travelers;

THE SANDY LINE

Markets closed the well off their worst levels and it seemed like the bulls defended their turf/sand for now.

SPX -15, NAZ -33 and DJIA -130.

Strongest sectors - metals, fins, ags, real estate and retail while materials, energy, trannies and homies lagged.

NYSE- 1400 net losers;

NAZ- 1200 net losers;

NDX- 12 GREEN;

SPX- 75 GREEN;

VIX - higher by 8% at 31.35 and at the SMA 10;

It appears that the bulls actually won the day despite the shellacking in equity prices- the EMA 20 on the ES Futures was safely defended at the end of the day and SPX 880 level also came close to being taken out - but no said the bulls. Also not that the futures climbed right to the ema 200 on the 5 minute chart like a magnet.

My trading - pretty good buying the SDS off the ema 20 and scoring well- the 2.00 pm area in particular.





RSI (2) levels off the lows and now trading near 25 on the ES/NQ futs.



Jeff Saut seeing some toppy action;

VIX - buyers beware;

And pretty ugly shoots for Kudlow;

MORNING TRADE

Markets have headed straight down since the open and as I type the DJIA is -160, SPX -18 and NAZ -40.

Strongest sectors- drugs, retail, fins and real estate while materials, energy, trannies and homies lag.

NYSE- 1800 net losers;

NAZ- 1350 net losers;

SPX- 47 GREEN;

NDX- 8 GREEN;

RUT 2K - 250 up 1600 down;

VIX - about 31 and 6.6% higher on the day and a hair under the SMA 10;

RSI (2) on most major indexes at/near 15;

Still looking to buy a bounce for a quick flip but so far no dice- its coming as we wont go straight down - and it will be quick.

LOWER FUTURES

Its early- very early but the futures are down and trading considerably under fair value and the European markets are way down (1% to 2% on the FTSE DAX CAC)- The line in the sand this time probably around 890 on the SPX which is the rising EMA 20 day line - similar to the 880 support of a week or so ago.

ES -6;

NQ -7;

YM- 50;

RSI (2) levels on the futures indexes as follows:

ES 23

NQ 41

YM 23

TF 26

The dollar a little higher while gold is flat and crude is down about $1.5 to the $60.5 area.

Most of the ag commodities trading down a little less than 1%.

Ortiz with his first dinger of the season last night and who would have thought Damon would have 10 to Ortiz's one- and after the Yanks losing their first 5 to the RSOX - they are only one game behind them in the standings- interesting times on the baseball diamond.

BESPOKE on the GOLD/$$$$ trade;

Cramer - not a lousy stock picker and as effective as a two sided coin;

Hulbert now talking the VIX;

Bill on the VXX - could be the new 3x etf;

Trader Mike on S+R and maybe even a double top;

Obama talking GITMO;

Another bailout for GMAC-

THE BROKERS

That makes two ugly closes in a row after impressive openings and morning trading- the SPX -4.6, NAZ 7 and the DJIA -53.

Strong sectors- metals, materials, energy, ags, junk and drugs while homies, fins, retail, real estate and broker lagged.

SPX - 183 green;

NDX- 32 green;

VIX up 1% at 29.06 and about 10% under the SMA 10;

A very unimpressive day for the bulls who may now be in trouble of making lower highs and clear resistance at 930- In addition, the group that led us up - the fins did well this morning then sold off hard all afternoon. In fact the XLF opened near the highs and drifted lower-

GS MS were early tells that this market was going to have some problems and keep an eye on them now as they appear to be very important to the entire equity complex.

SLOP FEST

Market playing ping pong between the Pivot on the SPX and R1- I played it - I won and now done for the day as it was like hitting head against wall over and over-

No clue about what the rest of the afternoon brings but internals are still bullish with fins heading South and tech moving to the North.

Also traded some UNG to the North and that worked out pretty well-

VIX might have seen a temp bottom earlier in the day at 26 and about 15% below the SMA 10-

So markets may sell off here as the 930 area on the SPX is proving solid resistance- but don't think its going much lower either so lots of cash for now.

SELL SIGNALS

Markets are not behaving as I expected as the over bought conditions and SPX resistance areas have kicked in to the bulls- SPX +8, NAZ +20 and DJIA +39.

Strongest sectors materials, metals, energy, semis, real estate and trannies while banks, fins, bonds, retail and homies lag.

NYSE- 1500 net green;

NAZ- 1,000 net green;

NDX- 77 GREEN;

VIX- 27.75 and it hit 26+ this morning and was about 15% under the SMA 10;

Markets moving down after opening very strong on the BAC secondary and a general feel good attitude- not sure why the sudden sell down in light of the very strong internals but price action dictated.

I made some money on QLD on the initial pop and bought some back which was sold at a few penny loss as the VWAP and the 20 period ema's were taken out.

RSI 2 levels probably were the signal today as we were way overbought at way over 95 - still on the look out for a later rally - but for now its out for some errands and food.

HIGHER FUTURES

Futures are trading up and BAC finding buyers as all the shares in the world couldn't deter these bulls-

ES +6.75;

NQ +6.5;

YM +51;

Gold crude and ags all higher - expecting some selling after we hit yesterday's highs and then probably higher as we try to reach the SPX 930 level.

Everyone all excited about the great move in US Equities off the bottom but check what has happened around the world;

Rosie expecting the leg down;

Dr. Brett on losing money the correct way;

The wingers at each others throats;

A nice chart from the Chart Store via Barry;

Trader Mike with some good stuff;

Looks like the strategists are gonna get busy;

SEPERATION

Lots of folks surprised by the BAC secondary that is hammering the stock in after hours trading- Note GS upgraded BAC yesterday to conviction buy list and a $15 target- just shocking as they probably got some friends out yesterday on the upgrade-

Keep in mind that the goal of places like GS is to separate the public from its money - trading, securitizations, M and A and commissions- please don't be shocked by these events.

THE SURPRISING CLOSE

Markets closed the day near the lows as the bulls seemed to be in control before the last hour sell down- The SPX closed down 1.5, NAZ +2 and the DJIA -29.

Strongest sectors- materials, semis, energy, junk and retail while banks, fins, real estate, homies and small caps lagged.

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- flat internals;

SP 500- flat internals;

NDX- 62 GREEN;

Volume flat on NYSE and 2/1 green on the NAZ;

VIX - down 55 at 28.8;

Another day of good trades as the SSO was the weapon of choice - bought the early test of the VWAP and sold most into the R1 on the daily chart- not bad for a sloppy day-

Markets over bought a bit and maybe starting a new leg lower as the close was ugly for the bulls.

RSI (2) on major indexes near 70 on the SPX and 90 on the NDX-

VIX also starting to give signals as for the first time in quite a while it closed 10% under the SMA 10;

Saw this interesting poll from Gallup a few moments ago and it just shows where the public stands and where Kudlow stands on the issue;

Some thoughts on the VIX from Bill and Barrons;

And John Paulson loading up on the yellow metal;

Anticipating sloppy trading for the rest of the week - but willing to deal with it;

QUIRKY INTERNALS

Markets back in chop/slop fest mode - with some quirks-

SPX internals - almost 60% green;

NDX 50% green;

NYSE 430 net green;

NAZ- 300 net losers;

Volume on NYSE/NAZ slanted to the bulls- 2/1 green on NYSE and 4/3.5 on NAZ;

RUT 2K- 530 green and 1310 red;

TRIN .72;

Strongest sectors - materials, metals, ags, energy and brokers;
Weakest sectors- real estate, retail, small caps, drugs and homies;

THE OPEN

Markets are trading in ch0pfest mode as dips are bought and rips are sold- with a downside bias.

Strongest sectors- materials, trannies, ags, retail, junk and telecom while real estate, homies, small caps, energy and banks lag.

NYSE- 450 net losers;

NAZ- 650 net losers;

NDX- 32 GREEN;

SP 500- 170 GREEN;

VIX - at near 30 and down about .5%;

Volume about equal on the NYSE and slightly more to the downside on the NAZ;

The latest from Kass;

Looks like a sloppy day and one for quick trades in any particular direction _ I had a very nice day yesterday and will look to work slowly today and look for good setups.

SLIGHT OVER BOUGHT

Its early but the futures are again trading higher and I suspect this gap gets filled pretty quickly -

ES +5;

NQ +5.5;

YM +45;

Checking the slight over bought conditions- RSI (2) levels as follows:

NQ 89

ES 84

YM 90

SPX 77

NDX 84

RUT 78

DJIA 81

In addition -the VIX has been sinking of late and now sits at 30.24 - about 7% below its SMA 10;

Crude is higher and trades at/near $60.5 while gold is up a hair at $920+;

The dollar down a bit and the EURO up a bit;

After yesterday's big up day - some thoughts from Dr. Brett and Jason with some observations on the high ticks;

A nice article on the end game of debt to GDP;

Looks like more folks with problems on the Madoff case;

Consumers are still spending on these;

Trader Mike with his tech take- and low volume yesterday;

Predicting trends;

Exchange bonanza in OTC overhaul;

And Roger on the next bull market in energy;

THE CLOSE

Markets closed at the highs of the day after flat lining after the gap - the SPX +27, NAZ +52 and the DJIA +235.

Strong sectors- real estate, banks, fins, homies, energy, brokers and materials while metals, telecom and drugs lagged.

SPX -450 GREEN;

NDX - 90 GREEN;

OEX- 90 GREEN;

VIX- down 7% at 30.25;

Today - I hate to say it - but pretty easy - the buyers tipped their hand early as they bought the dip and big as the ticks were very high early - showing the trade was to buy pullbacks and hold on for the close - which was the high- This fish bought QLD SSO IYF pretty early and sold pretty late - and best daytrades I have had in a while.

Tomorrow is of course turn around Tuesday and with RSI numbers at over bought levels near 80 on most major indexes - it looks like consolidation ahead- and we now have real good support at the EMA 20 on the ES/SPX- so happy day for now.

An interesting poll by Gallup - not so good for the whig party;

Some nice trading links here;

And some nice Self Regulation here;

MORNING MARKETS

Markets are higher this AM but a bit misleading as upgrades to the financial sector are dragging that group up while the tech heavy NQ is lagging a bit and well off their best levels.

Strongest sectors - fins, real estate, energy, homies, materials and brokers while metals, drugs, internets and biotech lags.

NYSE- 1800 net green;

NAZ- 1200 net green;

SPX 75% GREEN;

NDX- 68% GREEN;

RUT 2K - 1540 GREEN;

VIX - down 4.5% at 31.65;

Not expecting much more of a move higher from these levels and buying pullback may work for a quick flip. SSO/DDM /DIG/IYF/XLF look good for that while QQQQ/QLD continue to trade way below the initial highs.

TRENDLINES

Futures flipped around midnight and are now sharply higher as the Indian indexes ramped up 17%-

ES +7.25;

NQ +11;

YM +57;

All way above fair value and up past the EMA 20 trend line on both the SPX and the ES futures - lots of folks were watching that line as it continues to be support from the start of the rally in early March.

Also helping the futures are upgrades to GS MS JPM MGM etc.

Trader Mike showing his areas of support;

Buffet also helping the futures this morning as news of his recent additions hits the markets;

Commercial real estate - defaults moving on up;

Dr. Brett on his sector analysis;

NIGHT MOVES

Futures are trading down a bit but above fair value after the move up in futures after the cash close on Friday- that's as of 7:30 PM eastern time.

Not all that much excitement in Barron's this weekend with the big headline being that US issues paper may be over valued and maybe the Chines will not continue to buy our paper- well breaking news - If you believe - and I do - one can buy the TBT and go short the US 20 year paper 2x.

RSI (2) levels getting a little oversold with the major indexes at/near 25- with the XLE/DIG near 11- so a bounce in the energy sector may preclude a bounce in the overall markets.

Gold trading up over $930 while the dollar is also moving up - crude higher with gold while natty gas is getting hit and ags are down across the board.

Barry has been playing up this chart and it is pretty interesting;

Wall street Cheat sheet with a the thrill of a tril;

Lots of folks bullish on ags;

Yanks with the Big K so far;

The Quant with the bad Breadth;

BIG on the Baltic dry index- CDS/SPX charts- and a Key inflection point;