The Drift

A pretty gloomy afternoon of trading as every little lift was met by selling after a slightly green morning. And checking the SPX - down 11.5 and back at the 1,315 number of recent support - also near the 50% retracement between the recent highs -1360 and lows -1257.

Strongest sectors included china, defense, oils and tech while gaming, brokers, retail, banks and ags lagged.

NYSE- 1100 net losers;

NAZ- 1030 net losers;

NDX- 27 GREEN;

OEX-35 GREEN;

IBD -40 GREEN;

VIX- another weird day as it drifted lower by .73%;

Volume- 3/10 Up do Down - over all - very light at 1.3B;

Oil- $105.1

Gold- $931

EURO was one of the places where there were big green bars as it traded back to recent highs near 1.58;

Waiting for next week to enter longs if it looks like this level will hold;

Jeff Saut on CNBC now expecting the recent lows to hold in the short/intermediate term- yeah agree;

10 year Bond trading at a yield of 3.466% and if we get any good news the selling there will be huge - does anyone really think that is a good yield for the next 10 years or just a very safe resting place for cash until something changes?

The Flats

Markets appear to be flipping to red as banks/brokers continue to lag - winning sectors include oils, defense, tech and trannies;

Market internals have also gone red on the NAZ/NYSE/OEX and NDX;

AAPL BIDU GOOG RIMM all trading green but I doubt we get any decent ramp higher today;

Crude- $105+, Nat Gas- $9.78, Gold $928;

VIX -down 2%;

Down volume 3/2 ahead of up- light volume yet again;

Technically, I am sticking with a buying point at/near 1,310/1,315 or the 50% retracement of the most recent move higher.

One comment wanted to know funds that I own /like and here is a short list:

FAIRX OAKBX TASCX VGPMX PRNEX WWNPX WGRNX VLEOX PRWCX MXXIX MDISX MQIFX ARTQX-

Morning Check

Markets are a bit higher with the DJIA +24, NAZ +10.5 and SPX +3- The RUT/MID are both unchanged.

Strong sectors- oils, tech, defense, biotech and semis while gaming, retail, airlines, brokers, banks and homies lag.

Key stocks generally higher led by BIDU POT NVDA RIMM AAPL ISRG KLAC while MER TIF LVS MGM C MS UA DECK are lower;

NYSE breadth +170;

NAZ FLAT;

NDX- 75 GREEN;

OEX-60 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;

WINNERS- CLR CTRP RBN MOS AZZ BIDU LLTC STLD RIMM NVDA QCOM BRCM AAPL ORCL HON HNZ DELL HIG MO;

LOSERS- CCU S MER RF C TGT CBS MS APOL TLAB DISCA GRMN BBBY UAUA SHLD HANS HLF WMS TKC BVN JST GFA GEF;

VIX down 2%;

Up volume a hair less than down volume;

More Kramer nonsense as he harps on the uptick rule- Just remember -one could always short ETF's /futures on a downtick and buying puts- yeah there also.

Tech and oils are leading while financials are lagging- AAPL BIDU GOOG RIMM XLE VLO HOC FTO all nicely positive;

I suspect we get down to the SPX 1310 level early next week and I suspect that will be a nice entry level for a swing.

Closing Ugly

I thought today would be a problem for the bulls early this morning when the brokers were tanking and folks hardly noticed. LEH closed down about 9%, MER -6%, MS -4.5% and GS -4%.

The SPX was down 14, DJIA -120 and the NAZ down an ugly 44 after AAPL BIDU GOOG INTC MSFT RIMM and YHOO spent all day in the red.

Strongest sectors- ags, drugs, homies and biotech while brokers, gaming, tech, banks, semis and retail were the worst.

Gold $948, Oil- $107.2- Nat Gas- $9.68 10 Year bond- 3.53% and the EURO- 1.577;

NYSE Breadth -760;

NAZ-720;

NDX -18 GREEN;

OEX-25 GREEN;

IBD -30 GREEN;

VIX- WEIRD and FLAT;

Down Volume 3X Up volume and light volume it was at under 1.4B;

TRIN 1.73;

Markets closed ugly with big cap tech and financials the worst of the bad and that is generally not a good sign.

Recent high on ther SPX was 1,360 and low at 1257 gives me a bounce target area of around 1,310 as a 50% retracement. Also note, 1,315 was recent support before the 1270/1250 number kicked up.

GS ugly and after hitting 185 area a target number there is around 163- 50% retracement to the 140 recent low.

SPX earnings according to the horse itself- 12/31/07=$82.54 or PE of 16X and a number of $96.26 for 2008 yielding PE of 13.7X.

And just in- Jimmy Cayne sold 5.66 million shares on 3/25 at $10.84- I guess he doesn't see the higher bid.

The Open

Markets about the opposite of yesterday as the big cap techs including AAPL BIDU GOOG INTC MSFT RIMM YHOO ORCL all trading red- in addition BAC JPM MTB USB V WB WFC BEN GS LEH LM MER MS and TROW also red - so buy at your own risk.

NYSE- flat inernals;

NAZ- 500 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX- 35 GREEN;

IBD - 40 GREEN;

VIX- down 2.5% - not a good sign;

Up volume almost half Down Volume;

Oil and Gold trading near the flat line;

Big ugly red bars on the financials with LEH seeing the worst of the selling down 8%- so could be rumors flying yet again.

Strong sectors- utils, oils, drugs and internets with brokers, metals and banks tanks.

Pre Open News

Futures trading higher on the econ news just released-

In the news:

LEH cutting numbers on BBT C BAC FITB JPM KEY MTB MI NCC PNC RF STI SNV TCB USB WB WM WFC ZION;

UBS ups to BUY - KGC ABX;

SY raises guidance;

Gapping up- CTRN MF CAG ASTI CCU LMC RMBS MU BHP UBS RTP SSL VLO HBC ;

Gapping down- ORCL RBN SAP GOOG XL FMD PAYX JNPR NS CHK IBM MER AMR;

LEH cuts GOOG target to $580;

Final Q4 GDP +.6% V .6% consensus- so no recession number yet;

Initial jobless claims- 366K v 371K consensus- ;

Gold -$945- Crude $106.5 EURO 1.576;

The QUANT on the pullback;

Barron's on the second half;

Grant's observations;

And 24/7 on the 25 most valuable blogs;

The Close

Markets closed lower with the DJIA/SPX lagging the NAZ/NDX- In fact, the NDX futures flipped to green near 3 PM EST- and the trade initiated earlier paid off nicely. Just had to be quick on the trigger.

Sector strength- oils, metals, utils and biotech while airlines, homies, banks, brokers and real estate lagged.

NYSE-420 net losers;

NAZ-380 net losers;

NDX- 18 GREEN;

RSI (2) levels near 45 on major indexes;

VIX- FLAT and still under the SMA 10;

Volume light again at 1.4B with Down 2X the up;

ORCL getting sold as I type and the NQ dipping on the news.

BESPOKE- with a nice observation.

TRADERDRAKE with a trade in SRS.

Markets in no man's land in the middle of recent ranges and 50 SMA on the SPX - a hair under the close - so still sitting at recent support.

Tomorrow another day and taking it one day at a time for now-

A Bounce?

Markets trading lower with the DJIA -120, NAZ -27 and SPX -12.5-

Strong sectors- oils, metals, utils and ags;

Weak sectors- airlines, homies, banks, brokers and gaming;

NYSE- 925 net losers;

NAZ- 850 net losers;

NDX- 15 GREEN;

OEX-25 GREEN;

DJIA- 8/30 GREEN;

OIL- 105+;

GOLD 949;

EURO 1.577;

Markets and especially the NAZ/NDX feel like they want to make a little move higher this afternoon- and I am long QLD (small) in anticipation. Why- GOOG RIMM AAPL BIDU all solidly green.

The Open

Markets are way down and oil way up on the heels of the oil inventory numbers- big draws in distillates and a small build in crude- oil trading at/near $104.7 up 3.25% on the day.

DJIA -125, NAZ -29 and SPX -13.

Strongest sectors- oils, metals, utils, ags and biotech while airlines, financials, semis and homies lag.

Key stocks mainly lower- GREEN- BIDU AAPL XOM GB TIF GOOG MTW RIMM- RED- C MER NVDA LVS BAC MS KLAC MS;

NYSE- 1050 net losers;

NAZ- 1050 net losers;

NDX- 10 GREEN;

OEX-25 GREEN;

IBD- 40 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 3% and at/near the SMA 10;

Down volume 3X Up volume;

Gold -near $950;

EURO- 1.574;

The Macau bet;

Brain Control;

Big Money;

Fast Money;

As the poor numbers continue to appear such as oil inventory/euro etc - the conviction of the bulls seems to get a little weaker- Question is where they close and if they can't keep it above the 50 SMA the bulls may be in a little trouble.

Pre Markets

Futures are trading well below fair value and the first test of "the low is in" crowd may be upon us. The test- will the bulls buy the dip and the 50 SMA on the SPX?

In the news- durable goods orders worse than expected and did anyone really expect something else?

MOT splitting in 2- for some reason some think 2 pieces of MOT are better than 1!!!

GS economists see $1.2Trillion of global credit losses with wall street accounting for 40% of the losses;

Gappin Up- BRCM ORCL S ZVUE CSUN PFSW AEHR VVTV AUY GOLD HL HMY AA AAUK PAL MT DROOY LMC TRP AU GFI BHP;

Gappin Down- CCU RF C CSCO COF WFC GRMN GILD JBL CHIC SAI SEED CORS C RBS PFCB MER CIT HBC BAC;

Oil over $102- Gold $942 EURO 1.572;

the close

Markets ended the day off their best levels but not too bad- DJIA -16, NAZ +14 and SPX +3. MID's far better at +1%.

Strongest sectors- china, metals, oils, ags, emerging markets and biotechs while retail, real estate, homies, utils and large cap value lagged.

Another light volume day with 900M shares traded up and 570M traded down;

NYSE- 967 net winners;

NAZ- 685 net winners;

NDX- 60 WINNERS;

OEX- 60 WINNERS;

IBD- 70 WINNERS;

VIX finished near flat at 25.64- still oversold at 8% below the SMA 10;

Gold almost to the $940 level and making the slow climb back- while OIL is up near $102- EURO back to 1.56+;

CCU deal apparently collapsing as C MS DB CS RBS and WB - not too happy to hold on to this paper- Any Takers?

Markets are still over bought and this CCU news make bring markets lower tomorrow- The good news is that the dippers may step up and and watching them will be key for now.

noon stability

Markets are trading mixed with the NAZ a bit higher while the DJIA is a hair lower with BAC JPM and IBM the biggest drags- Midcaps rarely mentioned but leading the way with a .7% gain as I type.

Winning sectors- metals, oils, ags, emerging markets, trannies and biotech while real estate, retail, telecom and banks are leading lower.

NYSE- 500 net winners;

NAZ- 250 net winners;

NDX - 60 GREEN;

OEX-63 GREEN;

IBD- 68 GREEN;

VIX- 25.5 and down about 1%;

Up volume 150% of Down volume;

10 year - yield moving up to 3.52%- crude- trading near $100 and gold at $935;

WINNERS- LEAP JNPR YHOO FMCN VRTX FWLT JOYG HAL BNI BHI BUD NYX AA NSC FSLR MA CHK CSX EOG GILD ECA TITN HK PQ BVN MOS V MA;

LOSERS- BAC LVS UA GOOG AMZN XOM MER KNDL PFWD LKQX ISYS SVR S BAC LEH JPM HD HIG GM CSC SHLD GRMN MICC IACI LAMR SIRI;

Market pretty resilient as the dip buyers came in on the crummy consumer confidence news- I bought near there and have sold half my SSO position-

Major indexes still in over bought territory but for now looks like buyers want in near support (SMA 50) with next resistance up near the 1380 level.

And guess who is back at realmoney.com?

Boone now bullish?

And Dick Bove with more on JPM!!!

the open

Markets are lower on the heels of a crummy consumer confidence number (64.5 v consensus of 73.5) as the DJIA is -66, NAZ -6 and SPX -5. RUT/MID's doing a bit better than the big caps.

Strongest sectors- metals, ags, oil service, biotech, drugs and utils- while real estate, banks, telecom and homies lag.

Key stocks- 50/50 with MON MA V BG POT ICE CELG DECK RIMM higher and BAC LVS BIDU UA TIF MER AMZN GOOG WYNN lower;

NYSE/NAZ- FLAT internals;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

OEX- 35 GREEN;

IBD - 55 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 2%;

Down volume a hair more than Up volume;

A little sell off ok here in my opinion but keep an eye on the financials- note GS staying green and a bid to the banks/brokers will lead to a higher SPX which is now at/near the 50 SMA.

Just took a small trade to the long side - (day trade SSO). Looking for a quick flip maybe back to the unchanged line.

pre open

Futures are trading near the flat line in the pre market as stocks look a bit extended here in the short term to this fish.

In the news:

Gapping up- AMCS CAAS HOGS COMS LFC WH GOLD SLW SLV AUY DROOY KGC GG CDE AAUK GLD GFI AEM SSRI PAAS BCS INT HBC UBS;

Gapping down- NPLA SIRF CMRG PVH SONC VLO WNR TSO SUN;

Fox Pitt cutting estimates for GS LEH MER;

Case Shiller Composite 20- year over year -10.7% v consensus of -10.5%;

Jeff Saut bullish;

The Quant - "short term overdone"

You can't be SIRI;

YHOO UP (MSFT to increase price?) GOOG DOWN (down go the estimates);

Gold trading at $932/ Crude at/near $101 and the EURO - 1.558 as the dollar starts giving it back;

IBD BIG CAP 20: CHK ORCL WFR GLW GILD CELG ECA FSLR CSX TJX BLK MA EOG STT WMT RIMM GENZ IBM NKE HES;

afternoon trading

Markets are still way up but off the highest levels of the day- However, note the action in MA V WFC LEH MS GS- all red to flat after being way higher.

Taking off some longs here as the markets getting a little frothy on a short term basis- note Major index ETF's near mid 80's on RSI (2) and the VIX about 10% under the SMA 10.

In addition, the VIX seems to be in the lower end of the recent trading range- SHORT TERM SELL SIGNAL.

Be advised that I reserve the right to put em back on QUICKLY-

I suspect tomorrow may be TURNAROUND TUESDAY.

noon look

The markets continue to trade higher with the DJIA +213, NAZ +62 and the SPX +23.5. RUT/MID's much stronger higher by almost 3% each.

Strongest sectors- homies, brokers, gaming, trannis and semis while utils, metals, bonds and drugs lag.

WINNERS- BLK NGS ISYS ISRG PCLN BIDU VRTX AKAM BRCM NVDA C F COF GOOG ATI GM FDX RIMM POT;

LOSERS- HES LEH CCU BK AEP SLE SO EXC ETR GE JNJ KFT RTN HANS DISH TEVA BEAS YHOO;

NYSE- 5/1 winners to losers;

NAZ- 3/1 winners to losers;

NDX - 94 GREEN;

OEX- 75 GREEN;

IBD -93 GREEN;

VIX - up 5.5% on the ramp after falling hard in front of the 3 day weekend;

Up volume 5.5X Down - on what appears to be light trading;

CAC closes down .5% and FTSE -.9%;

EWA up 3.4%;

Areas to watch on SPX - 50% retracement area near 1380- 50 SMA near 1345 (support)-

And check out Steve "free markets" Forbes as he asks for lots of help in his most recent editorial;

More news on the the conservatives favorite republican candidate - the old John McLame;

Some shrewd observations on bubblevision as commentators ask each other if the markets have bottomed- Well QQQQ is about 8% off the bottom (41.05) and the SPX is almost 8% off the ground (1253). Both are above their down trending 50 SMA.

here it is

Markets are ripping higher as news of the higher BSC offer becomes official. The DJIA +183, NAZ +44 and SPX +21.

Strongest sectors- homies, brokers, retail, banks, emerging markets, trannies and gaming while utils, metals, drugs and defense lag.

Key stocks- 37/40 in the green led by TIF BIDU ISRG DECK C POT NVDA WYNN MER- red- KO PG GE;

NYSE- 1900 net winners;

NAZ- 1300 net winners;

NDX- 90 GREEN;

OEX- 82 GREEN;

IBD 100- 93 GREEN;

SPX and DJIA leaving heavy overhead resistance in the rear view mirror as the 50 on the SPX is for now support on any pull back.

And why is BSC trading near $11 and above the new take out price?

And when does all the money on the sidelines have to reappear- higher prices no doubt.

Oil back to the flat line and GOLD up $6+ as I type.

gapping up

Markets look to open higher this morning on the heels of lower crude and a potential new bid for BSC at/near $10. Apparently some of the wording in the agreement was not very good and Jamie is trying to get a new deal done quickly- also trying to keep some valuable employees.

Bullish stuff on realmoney.com from Cramer etal while the folks at Schaeffer are not so sure.

Technically, we are gapping to a spot that was a pretty big sell area last week- (SPX 1340). Also overhead resistance above at SMA 50 at/near SPX 1345.

Gapping Up- TIF BSC CFSG WAG ACMR TWN SPIL EWT TSM UMC FMT CIT PMCS GW MON RIO POT COL CAM BIDU ORCL GOOG;

Gapping Down- RYAAY HANS WYNN MAR BAX TKC CNQR HURC HES;

10 Year yield- moving higher at 3.434%;

Interesting look at Federal Withholding receipts and how they may impact the economy/markets;