BOUNCING MARKETS

Barrons has some interesting articles of course and they were bullish on CHTT WB and CMCSA with Bob Olstein bullish on C AXP and DIS among others.

Markets closed the week with a bang and at their highs (for the week); some interesting numbers year to date also - check it out:

SPX +4.3%

NDX +11.6%

DJIA +7.3%

RUT +1.4%

MID +7.5%

SMALL CAP GROWTH +12.8%

SMALL CAP VALUE -7.8%

LARGE CAP VALUE +3.1%

LARGE CAP GROWTH +6.2%

SMH +12%

HHH +12.7%

OIH +25.7%

XLE +15.6%

VLO +33.2%

ITA +22.1%

DRG -1.7%

HUI -3.9%

MGM +45.6%

GS -9.8%

IAI -6%

XBD -6.1%

BKX -7.2%

AAPL +59.5%

INTC +22.4%

MSH +10.8%

XLK +10.7%

IYR -11.5%

BAM +11.3%

EWA +19%

EFA +6.9%

EEM +14.7%

Its generally about being in the correct sectors- tech, oils, gaming- not financials, real estate, reits, biotech or drugs.

THE CLOSE

Markets ended the day on a high note as the DJIA closed up 143, NAZ +35 and the SPX +17.

Strongest sectors included oils, metals, retail, defense, tech, gaming and small/mid caps; lagging was real estate and financials.

Market internals- the NYSE +1840/ NAZ +1070;

OEX- over 90 winners;

WINNERS- LEH ATI CPB ORCL BHI EMC TXN XOM INTC CBS TYC DIS SLB S;

LOSERS- LTD COF JNJ WB CSC TWX HON;

NDX- 85 WINNERS;

WINNERS- AKAM MICC DISH XMSR WYNN TLAB ROST BIIB UAUA IACI;

LOSERS- MRVL DISCA CTSH MNST PDCO AMLN CELG ADBE INTU EBAY MXIM ERTS CHKP;

IBD 100- 85 WINNERS;

WINNERS- FTK VSEA BCSI VIP WBD GMCR NILE DRYS SNDA CF IRIS;

LOSERS- BTJ MA CPLA TBSI ARD LIFC GEO AVR TRAK SMDI HMSY TRMB OPY;

Markets were looking good and the next level of resistance on the SPX seems to be the 50 day at 1495 and the level of past resistance at 1500. Support still at the 200 day /50% retracement area of about 1465.

The 2 day RSI levels way overbought near the 98 levels on most major indexes and the VIX about 22% below the 10 day SMA- WAY OVERSOLD- OF COURSE IT GOT WAY OVER BOUGHT. Anyhow, it feels like the markets want to go higher and I bet lots of folks will want to buy the next dip back to the 200 day.

MORNING TRADE

More good econ news as the housing numbers beat the expectations- still lousy but better than expected. Markets pop on the news with the RUT and small cap growth the best performing major market index.

Strong sectors- oil service, retail, trannies, metals, defense and homie while brokers, banks, semis and reits lag. The OIH back near the 175 level and it has been strong of late.

NYSE internals +930 NAZ internals +350;

OEX 70+30-;

WINNERS- HD BHI CVX XOM ORCL WMB AES SLB;

LOSERS- COF WB CSC LTD F JNJ JPM HNZ CMCSA MS GM MSFT;

NDX 60+40-;

WINNERS DISH BIIB MICC WFMI WYNN AMZN APOL ROST LOGI;

LOSERS- MRVL ERTS UAUA DISCA CTSH SUNW PDCO INTU CHKP BRCM CELG;

IBD 100 85+15-;

WINNERS- WBD VIP ARGN WNR ASEI GME GPOR PRFT ATN IRIS RADS NOV;

LOSERS- LKQX MA BIDU KCI ZUMZ HMSY LIFC PCLN GSOL TDG GEO;

A big divergence between very bullish internals in the IBD 100 index and crummy action in the banks and brokers. Probably a draw with the market ending the day not far from where it began.

PRE MARKETS

Markets are set to open near the unchanged levels on the heels of the good durable numbers just released. The fly, will the Fed cut if the econ numbers continue to out perform?

Anyhow, checking the technicals on the SPX- resistance at the 1,460 give or take number as it is the 50% retracement from the low at 1,370 and the high at 1,559. Not surprisingly, it is also near the 200 day SMA.

Next area of resistance assuming we can escape the 1,460 level and move higher- 1,500- which was touched on the last bounce after the initial market sell off.

Some interesting 2 day RSI levels:

SPX 84

OEX 94

DJIA 88

MID 66

RUT 40

SMALL GROWTH 55

SMALL VALUE 46

LARGE GROWTH 93

LARGE VALUE 84

NDX 76

Volatility indexes at very over sold levels and most trading about 17% below the 10 day SMA.

VIX 16.6% below

VXD 18.6% below

VXO 16.8% below

THE CLOSE

Markets end the day near the flat line on the DJIA and lower on the NAZ and lots lower on the RUT.

Strong sectors on the low volume day included oil service, drugs, large caps and biotech while airlines, small caps, trannies and retail lagged.

Market internals FLAT on the NYSE and red 625 on the NAZ.

OEX - INTERNAL FLAT;

WINNERS- LTD CSC HPQ HAL MDT CMCSA SLB BHI AMGN IBM;

LOSERS- NSC ATI TGT HD EMC PEP WMT BA BNI DIS ROK AES;

NDX 30 GREEN 70 RED;

WINNERS- JOYG MRVL EXPE ATVI DISH ERTS CMCSA SEPR QCOM AMGN;

LOSERS- FAST DISCA AKAM INTU SNDK FLEX MICC ADSK ISRG PCAR LRCX ROST;

IBD 100- 37 UP 63 DOWN;

WINNERS- GME WNR KCI NOV DRC DK FSTR SII ATW PCLN;

LOSERS- ARGN MR LKQX BTJ CPLA CEDC ZUMZ AFSI SF UA;

Volatility indexes near the unchanged line and over sold;

A consolidation day on the street and I think it is a good thing for the markets to digest some some of the recent gains. Surprising strength in the oil service sector as just maybe an old leader is gonna retake the baton and lead the market higher. OIH CAM CNQ FTO HOC RIG SLB VLO all good.

Still looking to buy stocks on pull backs and tomorrow may be a good day as next week could be pretty bullish- Surprise rate cut? Also, lets see if we can get past the current resistance at the 200 day SMA and the 50% retracement on the SPX.

AFTERNOON TRADE

Markets trade lower although off the bottom as the large caps continue to beat the small caps.

Strong sectors include oil service, tech, biotech, brokers and drugs while tranies, retail, airlines, defense, metals and banks lag.

NYSE internals FLAT- NAZ internals red 575;

OEX: 45 UP 55 DOWN;

WINNERS- LTD CSC AMGN HPQ MDT HAL BHI MCD BAX IBM;

LOSERS- NSC ATI HD EMC GM TGT AA SLE BNI F ROK BA PEP;

NDX: 40 UP 60 DOWN;

WINNERS- JOYG DISH MRVL ATVI SEPR EXPE TLAB CMCSA ERTS ERIC;

LOSERS- FAST DISCA INTU MICC SNDK AKAM FLEX XLNX LRCX ISRG NIHD;

IBD 100- 45 UP 55 DOWN;

WINNERS -GME WNR NILE FSTR DK KCI DRC ESI PCLN NOV;

LOSERS- ARGN LKQX DRYS MR BTJ SF CEDC ZUMZ CPLA TBSI;

Volatility near the unchanged line but still way over sold at/near 20% below the 10 day SMA.

Markets look like they want to rally again as the 200 day SMA on the SPX was again hit on this pullback. Just feels like folks want to get back into equities as BAC is giving folks confidence.

And for the record, I am in favor of a rate cut and agree with Bill Gross, bailouts not so bad if it keeps the economy/country out of trouble. Yeah, dumb loans made to unqualified borrowers, but if bailing some of them out keeps lots of folks employed - well so be it.

MORNING MARKETS

Markets open mixed with big caps higher to mixed and small/mids/NAZ lower.

Strong sectors include oil service, brokers, drugs and biotech while small caps, airlines, retail and semis lag.

Market internals - green 300 on the NYSE and red 550 on the NAZ.

OEX: 60 GREEN 40 RED;

WINNERS- LTD CSC ORCL SLB CMCSA AMGN NXY AES HAL;

LOSERS- HD EMC TGT SO COF UTX EK PEP FDX RF ATI DELL;

NDX: 40 WINNERS 60 LOSERS;

WINNERS- JOYG ORCL GRMN MRVL ERTS CMCSA AMGN SEPR DISH TLAB

LOSERS- AKAM NIHD IACI PDCO XLNX MCHP SHLD RIMM FAST FLEX SNDK.

IBD 100: 50/50 between winners and losers;

WINNERS- GME WNR MTL MORN PCLN VDSI TTEC NOV GRMN;

LOSERS- CEDC GEO LKQX RADS ARGN ZUMZ SF AIRM FLIR BCSI;

Volatility indexes near the unchanged level but way under the 10 day SMA;

Probably a little too far too fast as the market needs some time to digest some gains. The 200 day SMA is about 10 points in the rear view and that remains a short term pullback target.

The financials gave it up yesterday afternoon and they are again struggling this morning despite the BAC/CFC news.

BAC C JPM MA MI MTB USB WFC all flat to red while CFC BSC GS LM CME ICE NYX all solidly green.

Stuff that I want to buy on the next pullback- GS IAI LVS LUK ITA EWA TROW BAM OIH - a start anyway.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed at/near the highs but some issues do exist as the markets seem to have gone straight up since the bounce off the lows last Thursday.

Strong sectors included airlines, gaming, homies, metals, trannies and oil service while financials, semis and biotech lagged.

Market internals +2025 on the NYSE and +1125 on the NAZ.

WINNERS - NTAP PCAR ESRX NIHD TGT AA AES CPB HIG IP BCSI DRYS TBSI MR EDU;

LOSERS- TRAK GRMN ARD ESI OII MORN COF WFC F KO JPM AEP ABT MDT SO XMSR PDCO AMAT MCHP VRTX;

The markets still have issues, first, the banks and brokers lagged today with JPM MTB WFC BSC CME all closing red despite the 145 point gain on the DJIA. Next, the 2 day RSI on many of the major market indexes have climbed back to the 85/95 level and the VIX is close to 20% below the 10 day SMA. Bottom line, I suspect a pullback to the 200 day SMA on the SPX which is near the 1456 level; buyers should be happy to get back in there if the markets allow.

FLYS

More flys this afternoon as the markets come off the highs with the semis/banks/brokers lagging.

Strong sectors continue to be gaming, metals, airlines, trannies and homies while brokers, banks and semis lag.

Market internals- +1700 on the NYSE and +865 on the NAZ.

OEX: 75 GREEN 25 RED;

WINNERS- AA DELL TGT AES CPB HIG IP EK DOWN CI NXY DD ETR;

LOSERS- COF WFC JPM F AEP MER ABT C RTN LEH SO MDT AMGN BAC;

NDX: 65 GREEN 35 RED;

WINNERS - JOYG NTAP MRVL SEPR VMED PCAR NIHD CTSH ESRX INFY;

LOSERS- PDCO ROST KLAC MCHP GILD CHKP FAST AMAT VRTX BBBY IACI LAMR;

VIX index down almost 5% and about 13% below the 10 day SMA;

Tough for the market to gather steam and make much head way with C JPM MI MTB USB WFC BAC BSC LEH LM MER CME NYX KLAC AMAT AMGN GILD all red.

In addition, the 200 day SMA and the 50% retracement level on the SPX a tough level to penetrate as of now.

The good news, check the charts on the recent Private Equity takeover targets like HET HLT FDC. All looking like the deals are going to happen and once that happens...................

MORNING TRADE

Blogger back to its old tricks but up now up and working. Anyhow, markets are higher with the RUT/MIDS leading the way up along with small cap growth.

Strong sectors include gaming, metals, homies, airlines, defense, trannies and oil service while banks and semis lag.

Market internals very strong with NYSE +2175 and NAZ +1340.

OEX: 87 up and 13 down.

WINNERS- TGT AA DOW IP CPB AES HIG EMC EK CI CAT DELL.

LOSERS- WFC COF MDT F PEP SO VZ JPM AEP ABT ORCL USB.

NDX: 75 up and 25 down.

WINNERS- NTAP JOYG NIHD LOW AAPL CTSH LOGI INFY CTXS SEPR.

LOSERS- CHKP IACI FAST BEAS VRTX ATVI KLAC XMSR GILD RIMM PAYX LAMR.

IBD 100: 83 up and 17 down.

WINNERS- BCSI TBSI CNH DRYS FTK WBD MR ZUMZ PCP ICE.

LOSERS- ATN TLVT FSTR MORN ARD OII ATLS CLB OPY WRNC AVR TRAK.

Lots of discussion on bubblevision on rate cuts and weather they are built into the prices of stocks. No idea, but I do think there is one thing that isn't built in and that is the completion of M and A deals like HET FDC HLT TRB etc. If these deals start to get done it should take the markets higher as it is off the radar for now and it could show that funds are available for private equity yet again.

Technically, we are at the 200 day SMA on the SPX and a little below the 50% retracement. With internals as strong as they are look for an afternoon rally.

Fly in the ointment, the VIX which is about 15% under the 10 day SMA after jumping off the boards over the last 2 weeks.

PRE OPEN RAMP

Futures markets are trading higher as rumors abound of a merger in the brokerage business and our old friends in Dubai are buying into (9.5%) my old friend, MGM, at $84 per share. NMX also supposedly to be taken out by NYX. European markets trading up 1% or so.

The SPX should leave the 200 day SMA in the rear view mirror at the open (1,456) with the next area of resistance being the 50% retracement area at 1,461. The 50 day SMA a bit away at 1,496 but it may be another short term target.

Oil back up near the $70 level and Pete Beutel again talks of oil getting trashed and heading much lower. Of course he has been saying that for years. Hormats not in agreement citing demand from around the world. I will go with GS.

Gapping up- ACH PGLA BCSI BYI MGM TECD AMTD BTJ DRYS CTIC NMX NBIX SPWR SCHW NTES RTP TOL BYD LVS.

Gapping down- ABIX EFUT MDT.

TECHNICALS SPX

The SPX sold off this afternoon after some "unhelpful" words from Fed guy Lacker who said policy must be guided by economic outlook and their are still reasons to be concerned about inflation. Not what the markets wanted to hear. RATE CUT is what market participants want.

Anyhow, in addition to the Lacker comments, the SPX ran into overhead resistance at the 200 day SMA above and the 20 day SMA which seems to have capped the recent rally.

My guess is we will get above both on some upcoming good news and then both will act as support. Note also the Bullish Divergence on the SPX as prices made a lower low while MACD made a higher low.

Also, FWIW, the XBD/BKX financial indexes are both way below their respective 50 and 200 day SMA's which may give them plenty of room to run once the running gets going.

AFTERNOON RAMP

Markets are off to the races on the heels of the Chris Dodd comments, well not exactly but the financials are certaintly getting a bid off his remarks and the IAI seems to be winning the race as I type. NDX the best performing major index as AAPL AMZN GOOG RIMM all act great.

CME GS MER MS BSC all up nicely and leading the brokers while C JPM MA MI MTB USB WFC all also good;

Other strong sectors include airlines, internets, gaming, banks, retail and utilities. Oils lagging on the heels of sub $70 crude.

Market internals 900 net green on the NYSE and 410 net green on the NAZ.

OEX:

70 up 30 down;

WINNERS- EMC COF ATI EK XRX HD GS CCU AA GOOG MER.

LOSERS- BHI DELL SLB AVP AMGN UTX COP AES PG XOM BNI WMB.

NDX:

66 up and 34 down;

WINNERS- UAUA GRMN AAPL NVDA WYNN PDCO RIMM AMZN ISRG COST VRSN.

LOSERS- INFY MNST SPLS PTEN LOGI CTSH VMED EXPD BRCM ADSK QCOM ADSK.

IBD 100:

60 up and 40 down.

WINNERS- TBSI GRMN EMC ZUMZ AAPL UA EXM SNDA NVDA RIMM.

LOSERS- FSTR CNH FTI ARD HURN ANDE RADS FLIR DRC NE MORN SLB.

So is the buy the dip trade back in play or will the market run into more bad news which will disappoint investor and lead to another test of the recent lows? No idea and neither does any one else but for now looking good and if the rate cut comes the markets could be much higher quickly.

MORNING TRADE

Markets continue to gyrate between green and red with the NDX/RUT being the best performers as I type.

Strongest sectors include gaming, internets, software, brokers and retail while homies, trannies, oils and airlines lag.

NYSE/NAZ internals a hair to the red side.

Key stocks- Green WYNN MO LVS CME AAPL CROX DECK BIDU GOOG RIMM MA MI MTB LM; Red- GS LEH MER MS ICE NYX JPM C BEN BAC IBM KLAC SHLD GES COH SPG SYK DNA CTSH INFY IBN.

OEX:

30 UP 70 DOWN;

WINNERS- EMC EK COF ATI CCU HET NSM CMCSA AA TXN.

LOSERS- DELL BDK LEH FDX CSC INTC GM LTD ABT CL T UTX.

NDX:

40 UP 60 DOWN;

WINNERS- VRSN GRMN VRTX WYNN XMSR CHKP RYAAY AMLN EBAY LINTA.

LOSERS- INFY ADSK LOGI ADBE SNDK EXPD MNST SPLS MRVL INTC QCOM.

IBD 100:

Internrals about 50/50.

WINNERS- TBSI BIDU ZUMZ EMC SNDA DK MR GRMN UA WFR WNR.

LOSERS- CNH ICE FSTR GES VIVO OPY VIP GSOL TNE TPX FLIR HURN.

Volatility indexes about unchanged.

The markets can do anything today as nothing good or bad is readily viewable. Down volume starting to over whelm down volume but that can change in a moments notice on a day like this. Probably a day to fade the markets or go to the gym. I may opt for the latter.

FINANCIAL TIMES?

So you want to dip a toe in financials cause big Ben may be cutting rates or you think the problems aren't as bad as they may seem?

Two ETF's to consider, the XLF and the IAI. The XLF is concentrated among big banks (C BAC JPM WFC WB) with AIG MS GS and AXP sprinkled in among the top 10 holdings while IAI is concentrated in GS MER MS LEH with CME and NYX sprinkled in the top 10 for some exchange exposure.

IAI probably with more upside (and downside) while XLF has the bigger yield.

THE CLOSE

Markets gyrated all day swooning at mid day and rallying in the afternoon and closing flat on the SPX. The DJIA finished up 40 after being down 100 early and up 100 late. The best performing major market index was the Midcaps and small cap growth.

Strongest sectors included metals, gaming, trannies, reits, semis and defense while banks, brokers, internets and software lagged.

Volatility index down 12% and now trading under the 10 day SMA.

Market internals- NYSE 665 net GREEN / NAZ FLAT;

OEX: 55 WINNERS 45 LOSERS;

WINNERS- AA TYC HON SLB BNI CI F CCU ATI EMC;

LOSERS- TGT COF CMCSA HIG LEH XRX ALL EK HNZ CPB IBM BAX;

NDX: 50 UP 50 DOWN;

WINNERS- RIMM GRMN SEPR ADSK MICC MRVL LOGI DISCA NIHD AKAM;

LOSERS- DISH PTEN INTU XMSR WFMI CTSH BRCM FLEX NTAP LINTA;

IBD 100: 70 UP 30 DOWN'

WINNERS- BTJ RIMM BCSI BIDU GRMN WCG TBSI VDSI NILE WFR;

LOSERS- DK TTEC DRC HMSY GMCR FLIR WNR ROS RADS CPLA PCP;

Financials were ugly all morning but started getting a bid in the afternoon while the IBD 100 was pretty strong all day. I suspect if the news stays "benign" the markets will continue to rally. Guy Adami out with some interesting stuff saying he thinks GS will blow earnings numbers away and buying here in the $170 area will the big bargain.

Value Lines latest stats have the DJIA trading with a p/e under 15 for the first time in a while. They are probably correct and the DJIA is probably a great long term bargain for anyone with a long term outlook or grandchildren they want to support.

And I doubt Mike Vick is coming back to the NFL- does anyone actually want to see him play football after his actions. I think not. Done.

MIDDAY SWOON

Markets have turned lower in the mid day trade and their are some interesting quotes on the screen. The financials are again getting crushed as are oils while tech and retail are doing ok.

The big issue, the VIX- lower by 5% while the SPX is also lower by almost 14. Hmmmm.

Strong sectors include metals, semis, reits and gaming while brokers, banks, oil service, homies and large cap value lags.

MARKET INTERNALS - NYSE 125 net RED- NAZ 450 net RED;

NDX- 35 UP 65 DOWN;

WINNERS- GRMN RIMM DISCA AKAM SEPR SNDK LAMR;

LOSERS- INTU PTEN WFMI INFY DISH NTAP CELG VRTX;

OEX- 33UP 67 DOWN;

WINNERS- AA TYC TXN F EMC CI BMY BNI CCU;

LOSERS- COF LEH XRX HIG JPM MER WMB GS ALL HPQ EXC;

IBD 100

55 UP 45 DOWN;

WINNERS- BCSI SCG BTJ FSTR VSEA GES GME WFR DRYS BIDU;

LOSERS- DK TTEC PCP OPY MTL CPLA OII ANDE WNR ARD DWSN;

Other big losers on the day:

BSC GS LEH LM MER MS CME NFX PXD SLB VLO XOM BAC C BEN CFC JPM MTB TROW WFC AMGN CELG GILD SGP;

Markets look ready to resume the down trend as the fade the rally trade takes hold. Can't say I blame them as more bad news looks to come out before to long.

THE OPEN

Markets open mixed with lots of early gyrations as the markets vacillate between the plus and minus side. The RUT seems to be acting best once again along with mids and growth.

Strong sectors include metals, real estate, retail, semis, trannies and defense while, homies, brokers, banks and airlines lag.

Market internals- NYSE +1200/NAZ +500;

The OEX:

60 up and 40 down-

Winners- AA EMC TYC BNI BUD LTD

Losers- COF LEH HIG BAX S ALL C

The NDX:

55 up and 45 down-

Winners- RIMM GRMN AKAM CTXS LOGI SNDK SHLD

Losers- EXPE INTU VRSN TLAB XRAY WFMI S APOL

IBD 100:

80 Winners 20 losers;

Winners- EXM FSTR BTJ CF BIDU VSDI UA

Losers- ROS OII TTEC HURN WNR SF VIVO AMZN

Volatility indexes lower by 4% on the VIX and 5% on VXO;

FWIW - BAC C CME GE GS MER MS XLF BSC JPM MTB WFC IBM HPQ AMGN CELG DNA SGP GILD INFY SAY VSL all lower;

COH COST CROX DECK GES PVH TGT TIF UA CFC BEN TROW ICE NDAQ NYX NMX BHP FCX GG PAAS SSRI all higher;

THE BARRON / IBD 100 FUN FACTS

A few interesting articles in barrons - they were bullish on MI CAB and NBR and bearish on Jimmy Cramer's stock picks. Who would have thought a guy picking 10/15 stocks a week every week on TV for years would not be able to make you some mad money. And, NBR, a big favorite of Marty Whitman at the TAVFX- they own more than 3% of the shares.

The IBD 100 for next week-

3- RIMM - 6.6% off 52 week high

5- BIDU - 19.5% off 52 week high

8- CMG - 12.55 off 52 week high

10- POT - 18.4% off 52 week high

13- GRMN - 12.7% off 52 week high

14- ISRG - 11.5% off 52 week high

19- MA - 21.5% off 52 week high

20- AAPL - 18% off 52 week high

30- GES - 12.9% off 52 week high

38 - UA - 12.9% off 52 week high

53- SLB - 10.2% off 52 week high

98 - ICE - 23.3% off 52 week high

The IBD 100 index for 2007, up 12.2% - and 15.6% off the 52 week high.